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Monday Morning Happy Bubbles

UPitt '89

Board of Trustee
Gold Member
Mar 14, 2002
29,087
21,559
113
Pitt's Outlook
Current RPI: 39
Current Chances: 75.8%
Most Likely NCAA Seed: 8
Estimated RPI with 2-0 finish: 29
Estimated RPI with 1-1 finish: 40
Estimated RPI with 0-2 finish: 54


Pitt got the big win they needed, and now just need to win one of the next three games to punch their ticket.

Other than that, it is all about seeding now.... every bubble team that loses improves Pitt's position and every bubble team that wins potentially hurts Pitt's position.

Sunday's Losers

USC
tumblr_mai5jeirvS1rh0e7oo1_540.jpg

The Trojans are now officially in freefall. Andy Enfield's team has lost 5 of 6, and the past three straight have been blowout losses. Their chances have fallen from 66.7% to 55.9%. Their once-promising season is unraveling.

Michigan
CSkwWqfXIAElA8z.jpg

The Wolverines just keep losing games that would give them a chance to move into the field. Their loss at red-hot Wisconsin dropped their chances from 69.6% to 52.7%. John Beilein needs to find some quality wins soon.

Tulsa
07tulsasltgspit468.jpg

The school that gave Pitt a High-Octane headache, lost a big game against Memphis. This dropped their chances from 82.5% to 68.7%. Karma, bitches. Tulsa and Houston might now be battling for the AAC's 4th spot.

UConn
UConn-banned-from-2013-postseason-due-to-APR-2L1N85PP-x-large.jpg

UConn lost a home game to Houston, and saw their chances fall from a relatively secure 94.5% down to 78.9%. They're still probably in, though.

Sunday's Winners

Pitt
cheerleaders_of_the_acc___pitt_by_rerwin-d685qks.jpg

Rather than offend any readers who might have daughters on the Pitt cheerleading squad or dance team... I'm taking the chickenshit way out, for now. Pitt's chances improved from 46.8% to 75.8% and they probably need just one more win.

Seton Hall
2153533444_8f0da12c35.jpg

The Pirates got a gigantic win against possible #1 seed Xavier, and thus punched their ticket. Their chances jumped from 78.4% to 95.7%. The Pirates are in.

Oregon State
4e332bafb0401f2540221510beec6245.jpg

The Beavers got another win over lowly WSU and moved from 55.9% to 61.3%.

Colorado
confusing-colorado-cheerleaders-pic-L-XULg7U.jpeg

The Buffaloes remained hot and got a nice win over ASU. Chances bumped from 77.0% to 90.0%. Practically a lock now.

Valparaiso
tumblr_mjm6xoWbSi1qgheipo1_1280.jpg

They're all-but in now. Another road win boosted their chances from 84.0% to 87.6%.

Monmouth
hqdefault.jpg

The Hawks keep winning, and their bench keeps getting featured in the Bubble Guide. They moved to 25-6 overall and 17-3 in the MAAC. Next up, the MAAC tourney. Chances dropped from 41.8% to 40.5%, as too many bubble teams above them kept winning this weekend.

Houston
Houston-Cheerleaders.jpg

The Cougars got an impressive win at UConn, and saw themselves climb onto the bubble for the first time. They have a lofty record, but the #77 RPI is holding them back. Chances up from 8.9% to 17.3%

Ohio State
4631b69ea57ae4d0863e13379305cda0.jpg

The Buckeyes got a much-needed win against Iowa to keep their hopes alive. Chances grew from 7.9% to 14.2%. If they win their next game, it would be hard for a 12-6 Big Ten team to be left out, despite their horrible non-conference schedule.

Monday's Lone Bubble Action

Syracuse (RPI: 55 Chances: 38.7%)
at UNC
7pm, ESPN
- The Orange will punch their ticket to the dance with a win over the Tarheels. At this point, a Syracuse win probably helps Pitt more than it hurts Pitt, so.... Go Orange!
 
Jerry Palm's latest bracketology has Pitt as a 7-seed and no longer on the bubble.

Joe Lunardi hasn't made his Monday update yet.
 
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Jerry Palm's latest bracketology has Pitt as a 7-seed and no longer on the bubble.

Joe Lunardi hasn't made his Monday update yet.

Pitt back up to the 9 seed line from Lunardi and in his "Behind the Bracket" he has Pitt as one of the teams with an 85% or better chance at making it in.
 
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Syracuse's RPI is up to 51.

If they upset the Tar Heels tonight.... not only do they pretty much lock up a dance slot.... they give Pitt two more Top-50 wins.

Go Orange!
 
Pitt's Outlook
Current RPI: 39
Current Chances: 75.8%
Most Likely NCAA Seed: 8
Estimated RPI with 2-0 finish: 29
Estimated RPI with 1-1 finish: 40
Estimated RPI with 0-2 finish: 54


Pitt got the big win they needed, and now just need to win one of the next three games to punch their ticket.

Other than that, it is all about seeding now.... every bubble team that loses improves Pitt's position and every bubble team that wins potentially hurts Pitt's position.

Sunday's Losers

USC
tumblr_mai5jeirvS1rh0e7oo1_540.jpg

The Trojans are now officially in freefall. Andy Enfield's team has lost 5 of 6, and the past three straight have been blowout losses. Their chances have fallen from 66.7% to 55.9%. Their once-promising season is unraveling.

Michigan
CSkwWqfXIAElA8z.jpg

The Wolverines just keep losing games that would give them a chance to move into the field. Their loss at red-hot Wisconsin dropped their chances from 69.6% to 52.7%. John Beilein needs to find some quality wins soon.

Tulsa
07tulsasltgspit468.jpg

The school that gave Pitt a High-Octane headache, lost a big game against Memphis. This dropped their chances from 82.5% to 68.7%. Karma, bitches. Tulsa and Houston might now be battling for the AAC's 4th spot.

UConn
UConn-banned-from-2013-postseason-due-to-APR-2L1N85PP-x-large.jpg

UConn lost a home game to Houston, and saw their chances fall from a relatively secure 94.5% down to 78.9%. They're still probably in, though.

Sunday's Winners

Pitt
cheerleaders_of_the_acc___pitt_by_rerwin-d685qks.jpg

Rather than offend any readers who might have daughters on the Pitt cheerleading squad or dance team... I'm taking the chickenshit way out, for now. Pitt's chances improved from 46.8% to 75.8% and they probably need just one more win.

Seton Hall
2153533444_8f0da12c35.jpg

The Pirates got a gigantic win against possible #1 seed Xavier, and thus punched their ticket. Their chances jumped from 78.4% to 95.7%. The Pirates are in.

Oregon State
4e332bafb0401f2540221510beec6245.jpg

The Beavers got another win over lowly WSU and moved from 55.9% to 61.3%.

Colorado
confusing-colorado-cheerleaders-pic-L-XULg7U.jpeg

The Buffaloes remained hot and got a nice win over ASU. Chances bumped from 77.0% to 90.0%. Practically a lock now.

Valparaiso
tumblr_mjm6xoWbSi1qgheipo1_1280.jpg

They're all-but in now. Another road win boosted their chances from 84.0% to 87.6%.

Monmouth
hqdefault.jpg

The Hawks keep winning, and their bench keeps getting featured in the Bubble Guide. They moved to 25-6 overall and 17-3 in the MAAC. Next up, the MAAC tourney. Chances dropped from 41.8% to 40.5%, as too many bubble teams above them kept winning this weekend.

Houston
Houston-Cheerleaders.jpg

The Cougars got an impressive win at UConn, and saw themselves climb onto the bubble for the first time. They have a lofty record, but the #77 RPI is holding them back. Chances up from 8.9% to 17.3%

Ohio State
4631b69ea57ae4d0863e13379305cda0.jpg

The Buckeyes got a much-needed win against Iowa to keep their hopes alive. Chances grew from 7.9% to 14.2%. If they win their next game, it would be hard for a 12-6 Big Ten team to be left out, despite their horrible non-conference schedule.

Monday's Lone Bubble Action

Syracuse (RPI: 55 Chances: 38.7%)
at UNC
7pm, ESPN
- The Orange will punch their ticket to the dance with a win over the Tarheels. At this point, a Syracuse win probably helps Pitt more than it hurts Pitt, so.... Go Orange!
Ohio State had a horrible non conference schedule?
UVA, UK, UCONN and Memphis. Horrible? Hand in your credentials and work as a timer for the 10 under AAU league.
 
Some of u are finally coming around. I have been saying we want SU in the RPI Top 50 for over a week now. If they land in the top 50 and we win 1 more then we are in without a doubt. We would still have a chance if we lose all 3, but SU is in Top 50 of the RPI. We would have 4 wins against RPI Top 50 in this case.
 
Ohio State had a horrible non conference schedule?
UVA, UK, UCONN and Memphis. Horrible? Hand in your credentials and work as a timer for the 10 under AAU league.
No... they didn't have a horrible schedule.... they had horrible PERFORMANCE in their non-conference schedule.

The lost to Texas-Arlington, Louisiana Tech, and Memphis in the OOC schedule. Three HORRENDOUS losses.

And bad losses hurt much more than good wins help.
 
No... they didn't have a horrible schedule.... they had horrible PERFORMANCE in their non-conference schedule.

The lost to Texas-Arlington, Louisiana Tech, and Memphis in the OOC schedule. Three HORRENDOUS losses.

And bad losses hurt much more than good wins help.
Then perhaps you should amend your original post....there is a lot of chatter about how Pitt should improve their OOC schedule. With a very young team like OSU has maybe Matta wishes his schedule was "horrible". You can't play OOC foes over your head and have the tank full.
I just couldn't tell what you were being so critical of...especially since you ignore the win over UK.
I am a fan of wins and losses in Feb and March being more important than those in November and December.
But whatever OSU does, you blew it by calling their OCC schedule horrible.
To the contrary.
 
Then perhaps you should amend your original post....there is a lot of chatter about how Pitt should improve their OOC schedule. With a very young team like OSU has maybe Matta wishes his schedule was "horrible". You can't play OOC foes over your head and have the tank full.
I just couldn't tell what you were being so critical of...especially since you ignore the win over UK.
I am a fan of wins and losses in Feb and March being more important than those in November and December.
But whatever OSU does, you blew it by calling their OCC schedule horrible.
To the contrary.
Good point.

What I should have said was.... "Given how horribly Ohio State performed during the OOC."
 
No... they didn't have a horrible schedule.... they had horrible PERFORMANCE in their non-conference schedule.

The lost to Texas-Arlington, Louisiana Tech, and Memphis in the OOC schedule. Three HORRENDOUS losses.

And bad losses hurt much more than good wins help.

Memphis by far the worst of these losses. UTA actually a pretty decent team this year, and if they can win the Sun Belt could really give someone problems in the tournament.
 
Good point.

What I should have said was.... "Given how horribly Ohio State performed during the OOC."
Actually, you certainly provided great visual evidence that tOSU has the back end of their schedule in fine condition....
 
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