Right now, I just don't have the answers. I don't know why Xavier Johnson transferred with two weeks left. I don't know why Coach Capel's teams struggle down the stretch so much. I don't know why they have zero commitments in 2020. I don't know why Trey McGowens left. Okay, I know some of these answers, but you get the point. This is just where I am at right now with everything.
The Xavier departure on its face, not a huge deal. I mean we all knew he was not going to be here next year. Something had to give. When the point guard and head coach don't have a great relationship, it's not good. That relationship seemed to get worse with each turnover and postgame press conference. For both Coach and Xavier's sake, they needed to get away from each other and start over. Do I think it is a big deal? I don't really. There was just something missing there with Xavier. Incredible talent. Maybe the most naturally gifted point guard that I can remember at Pitt. When I saw him as a freshman, I thought he had NBA potential. He is an NBA athlete. Is just tall enough to be an NBA point guard. Felt like he could have become a Rajon Rondo type of guard. I was that high on him. Of course there were plenty of mistakes and the form on the shot was hideous. I just assumed that he would develop and the shot would improve a bit. Instead, he seemed to regress if anything. The same mistakes and issues from three years ago. I don't know if it was the losing or what, but he just seemed to be worn down. The staff was worn down from coaching him. You could just see it. It really is too bad. I don't think Xavier is a bad kid. It just seemed to become an ugly situation without a positive outcome.
Unfortunately it's not just Xavier's departure. It's the losing, Trey leaving, Hugley, etc. The same way that part of this feeling stems from the Stallings tenure. It all builds. For those outside of the program and fan base, they see the Johnson news and look at the stats, and just look at it like another disaster for this program. That is just what it has become. If a transfer leaves Gonzaga or somewhere, the assumption is that the player isn't good enough. Right? If a player leaves Pitt right now, it is assumed to be a failure and waste of talent. That is not always the case, but that is just the reality of perception. When you are losing, all of these things add up and are projected to a big picture issue.
I definitely think we are in trouble zone here. I am not writing this staff off or saying that it is over, but it is going to take an incredible amount of work to overcome the current vibe. Unless you are a blueblood, you recruit off of momentum. This program does not have any. They haven't for years. When Capel was hired, I felt like that was the shot in the arm to really turn this thing upside down. He had a decent first class all things considered. They were definitely scrambling a bit and settling in. Second class, not as good. The 2020 class is a good one. The problem is that there hasn't been THE difference maker. The lottery pick type talent. Is that too much to expect? Maybe it is. I just thought that Capel had worked himself into a position where that was possible. Taking over at a new job in the ACC with nothing but playing time. The chance to be the first recruit for the new staff. Often times, the first class is the best for coaches. Unless they last a long time and then it swings up and down. There has been some bad luck and a variety of factors, but the bottom line is that it hasn't worked yet. The issue is that it has now become that much harder. So much of the recruiting is on Coach Capel himself, and now he is recruiting with a little less momentum than when he started.
Was it his fault that Hugley got into trouble? Was it his fault that Trey transferred? Was it his fault that Xavier transferred? There are a million of these questions right now. Believe me, I get it. It is not an easy gig, especially at Pitt. But again, the buck always stops with the head coach. Most of you probably know that I am a huge NFL fan and love to equate things to the league. One of the podcasts I listen to is with Mike Lombardi (personally not a fan), but he refers to the NFL head coaches as "Chief Figure it Out Officers." In college it is even more on the head coach. Literally everything goes back to the head coach. Of course these coaches aren't perfect and 19 year old kids are going to make mistakes. But at the end of the day, there has to be many more strikes than balls. You have to get more right than wrong. I often see people say, if they only had a center. Or if player x had just come to Pitt. That is the entire objective of this game. They can say that at any school. Any question that you may have, fair or not, lies with the staff. There is probably something that will come across the desk that surprises him every single day. The job is to figure it out, and the compensation is in the millions.
One of the most common questions that I get is about staff changes. I still answer it the same way. It is very difficult to make staff changes. When one of the coaches is a family member, it is just that much more difficult. Not to mention, the AD hired this coach and when the AD asks for a staff change, it can get awkward. That relationship is great right now, and Capel is her guy. To ask him to remove one of the assistants can put all of that trust into jeopardy.
My main question right now is - what is the plan? When you are the coach of Pitt, you need a plan. You can't just go out and chase talent. There has to be a plan. Do you want to be a strong shooting team? A big team that dominates on the glass? A defensive team? One that doesn't commit fouls? Do they like physical wings or a third guard? We are three years in and I can't tell what the plan is. You are not going to roll the balls out and beat the best teams in the ACC. You have to attack a niche. You have to pick a few priorities for the program and master those. Become great at those. Offset some of the disadvantage you are in. I understand that Xavier may have driven the staff crazy. Maybe some of these recruiting takes and playing decisions are just due to the fact of there not being anyone else. But at some point, you have to take a stand and plant your flag in the ground. As the CEO, put your brand on this. You are losing with Xavier, so you can certainly lose without him.
This can definitely be turned around. There is still enough talent as a base to stay afloat. But they need reinforcements. Badly. Femi, Ithiel, William, JC/Collier, AKC is a base. But you need an influx added to that. This staff had to know that they would have at least three spots. Bare minimum. So the fact that they don't have any is concerning. You are either not gaining traction with recruits, or you really only though there would be one or two spots. In either scenario, it isn't good. This program in particular can't rely on the transfer market right now. That market is a complete unknown, and not any safer than the high school ranks in my opinion. From what we have seen here, the transfer market has been a disaster for Pitt. What has happened is basically these kids are just moving around and becoming someone else's problem. Trey is a perfect example. Someone gets in his ear and tells him he needs to play the point. Everyone else knows he is not a point guard, and never will be. Doesn't matter, boom he is gone. Now the sweet talk that the Nebraska gave to him is biting them in the butt. Not to pick on Trey, because this literally happens to multiple players per team every year. None of these kids want to stick around and push through adversity. Not every player needs to handle the ball and shoot 20x a game to become a millionaire. Look all across the league. So many specialists that do one thing at an elite level.
Why is all of this happening to Jeff Capel? I don't know. He is a good guy that if anything, lets his players play too free. He lets his guys take bad shots, make bad decisions, turn it over all of the time. He still sticks with them. Can't think of many coaches that would have let Xavier play like he did for so long. Maybe that is part of the problem? I don't know. Maybe it can't get fixed. All I know is that this staff has to get some players this year. Pick a specific area maybe, and use one player to get another. This program did it for years with NY, then Philly, NJ, DMV. This is not a national brand right now. You have to win before it gets back there. My suggestion would be to go get some tough kids that can make shots.
The Xavier departure on its face, not a huge deal. I mean we all knew he was not going to be here next year. Something had to give. When the point guard and head coach don't have a great relationship, it's not good. That relationship seemed to get worse with each turnover and postgame press conference. For both Coach and Xavier's sake, they needed to get away from each other and start over. Do I think it is a big deal? I don't really. There was just something missing there with Xavier. Incredible talent. Maybe the most naturally gifted point guard that I can remember at Pitt. When I saw him as a freshman, I thought he had NBA potential. He is an NBA athlete. Is just tall enough to be an NBA point guard. Felt like he could have become a Rajon Rondo type of guard. I was that high on him. Of course there were plenty of mistakes and the form on the shot was hideous. I just assumed that he would develop and the shot would improve a bit. Instead, he seemed to regress if anything. The same mistakes and issues from three years ago. I don't know if it was the losing or what, but he just seemed to be worn down. The staff was worn down from coaching him. You could just see it. It really is too bad. I don't think Xavier is a bad kid. It just seemed to become an ugly situation without a positive outcome.
Unfortunately it's not just Xavier's departure. It's the losing, Trey leaving, Hugley, etc. The same way that part of this feeling stems from the Stallings tenure. It all builds. For those outside of the program and fan base, they see the Johnson news and look at the stats, and just look at it like another disaster for this program. That is just what it has become. If a transfer leaves Gonzaga or somewhere, the assumption is that the player isn't good enough. Right? If a player leaves Pitt right now, it is assumed to be a failure and waste of talent. That is not always the case, but that is just the reality of perception. When you are losing, all of these things add up and are projected to a big picture issue.
I definitely think we are in trouble zone here. I am not writing this staff off or saying that it is over, but it is going to take an incredible amount of work to overcome the current vibe. Unless you are a blueblood, you recruit off of momentum. This program does not have any. They haven't for years. When Capel was hired, I felt like that was the shot in the arm to really turn this thing upside down. He had a decent first class all things considered. They were definitely scrambling a bit and settling in. Second class, not as good. The 2020 class is a good one. The problem is that there hasn't been THE difference maker. The lottery pick type talent. Is that too much to expect? Maybe it is. I just thought that Capel had worked himself into a position where that was possible. Taking over at a new job in the ACC with nothing but playing time. The chance to be the first recruit for the new staff. Often times, the first class is the best for coaches. Unless they last a long time and then it swings up and down. There has been some bad luck and a variety of factors, but the bottom line is that it hasn't worked yet. The issue is that it has now become that much harder. So much of the recruiting is on Coach Capel himself, and now he is recruiting with a little less momentum than when he started.
Was it his fault that Hugley got into trouble? Was it his fault that Trey transferred? Was it his fault that Xavier transferred? There are a million of these questions right now. Believe me, I get it. It is not an easy gig, especially at Pitt. But again, the buck always stops with the head coach. Most of you probably know that I am a huge NFL fan and love to equate things to the league. One of the podcasts I listen to is with Mike Lombardi (personally not a fan), but he refers to the NFL head coaches as "Chief Figure it Out Officers." In college it is even more on the head coach. Literally everything goes back to the head coach. Of course these coaches aren't perfect and 19 year old kids are going to make mistakes. But at the end of the day, there has to be many more strikes than balls. You have to get more right than wrong. I often see people say, if they only had a center. Or if player x had just come to Pitt. That is the entire objective of this game. They can say that at any school. Any question that you may have, fair or not, lies with the staff. There is probably something that will come across the desk that surprises him every single day. The job is to figure it out, and the compensation is in the millions.
One of the most common questions that I get is about staff changes. I still answer it the same way. It is very difficult to make staff changes. When one of the coaches is a family member, it is just that much more difficult. Not to mention, the AD hired this coach and when the AD asks for a staff change, it can get awkward. That relationship is great right now, and Capel is her guy. To ask him to remove one of the assistants can put all of that trust into jeopardy.
My main question right now is - what is the plan? When you are the coach of Pitt, you need a plan. You can't just go out and chase talent. There has to be a plan. Do you want to be a strong shooting team? A big team that dominates on the glass? A defensive team? One that doesn't commit fouls? Do they like physical wings or a third guard? We are three years in and I can't tell what the plan is. You are not going to roll the balls out and beat the best teams in the ACC. You have to attack a niche. You have to pick a few priorities for the program and master those. Become great at those. Offset some of the disadvantage you are in. I understand that Xavier may have driven the staff crazy. Maybe some of these recruiting takes and playing decisions are just due to the fact of there not being anyone else. But at some point, you have to take a stand and plant your flag in the ground. As the CEO, put your brand on this. You are losing with Xavier, so you can certainly lose without him.
This can definitely be turned around. There is still enough talent as a base to stay afloat. But they need reinforcements. Badly. Femi, Ithiel, William, JC/Collier, AKC is a base. But you need an influx added to that. This staff had to know that they would have at least three spots. Bare minimum. So the fact that they don't have any is concerning. You are either not gaining traction with recruits, or you really only though there would be one or two spots. In either scenario, it isn't good. This program in particular can't rely on the transfer market right now. That market is a complete unknown, and not any safer than the high school ranks in my opinion. From what we have seen here, the transfer market has been a disaster for Pitt. What has happened is basically these kids are just moving around and becoming someone else's problem. Trey is a perfect example. Someone gets in his ear and tells him he needs to play the point. Everyone else knows he is not a point guard, and never will be. Doesn't matter, boom he is gone. Now the sweet talk that the Nebraska gave to him is biting them in the butt. Not to pick on Trey, because this literally happens to multiple players per team every year. None of these kids want to stick around and push through adversity. Not every player needs to handle the ball and shoot 20x a game to become a millionaire. Look all across the league. So many specialists that do one thing at an elite level.
Why is all of this happening to Jeff Capel? I don't know. He is a good guy that if anything, lets his players play too free. He lets his guys take bad shots, make bad decisions, turn it over all of the time. He still sticks with them. Can't think of many coaches that would have let Xavier play like he did for so long. Maybe that is part of the problem? I don't know. Maybe it can't get fixed. All I know is that this staff has to get some players this year. Pick a specific area maybe, and use one player to get another. This program did it for years with NY, then Philly, NJ, DMV. This is not a national brand right now. You have to win before it gets back there. My suggestion would be to go get some tough kids that can make shots.
