I try to be as analytical as possible but also to call balls and strikes. I was pretty excited when Narduzzi was hired and defended him even after the blowout loss to Virginia Tech. I thought Narduzzi had 3 key aspects that made him successful at a place like Pitt which is probably a harder job than most realize: 1) winning ACC record; 2) beat the teams he was supposed to beat; 3) usually upset 1 team per year. Unfortunately for Pat, he failed on all three accounts this year and that is why he should be coaching for his job in 2020.
Winning ACC Record
Most of us realized that Pitt overscheduled for several years during Pat's early tenure. The OOC combo of PSU, OSU, and UCF was mostly a disaster. But Pat kept it together going 6-2, 5-3, 3-5, and 6-2 in the ACC. That's 20-12 and was something like tied for second with Miami over that span. We even won an ACC Coastal outright, Pitt's first conference title in almost 10 years. Pretty good, all things being equal.
The thinking was once Pat got an easier OOC, you could bank on 8+ win seasons because he was doing fairly well within the conference. Unfortunately, this year was a mess. We went 4-4 in the ACC, dropping winnable games against Miami and at home against BC. 4-4 in the ACC is just unacceptable, especially with this defense. Moreover, the ACC is going to get better in the near future. UVA has upgraded. VT has come out of the shadows. UNC is on the rise. GT has a good recruiting class coming in. Miami has their typical top-shelf talent level. These teams will not wait around for us. Pat needed to do some damage this year in the ACC and he failed. That's the prime reason why I think 8+ wins and 5+ in ACC next year should be a prerequisite for keeping his job.
Beating Lesser Teams
Relatedly, except for 2017, Narduzzi has generally beaten the teams he was supposed to beat. We had 0 bad losses in 2015 (UNC, Iowa, ND all 10+ wins, Miami 8, Navy was ranked); same in 2016 (UNC and OSU 10+ wins, Miami 9, UNC 8...I guess NU was a "bad" loss but we had a ton of people hurt); generally the same in 2018 (UCF and ND both 10+, PSU 9) except for Miami who was a 7 win team but really matched-up against our running game, and Stanford in the bowl game.
Again, he's not been perfect but there haven't been many head scratching losses like we saw with nearly every previous regime. Certainly almost no losses like to Akron, Youngstown, and UConn where we totally outclassed them and they somehow won. The conventional wisdom was that once Narduzzi's baseline in the ACC plus no real letdowns meant we were guaranteed a pretty good floor and ceiling. Well, this year we dropped 2 horrible, must-win games against Miami and BC. The latter was especially damning as BC fired their coach the next day. So instead of a 9+ win season we are fighting for 8 now. Really unacceptable in year 5.
Yearly Upset
The cherry on top of Narduzzi's baseline was that even if we didn't pull off that amazing year, we did manage some huge upsets. We beat Louisville with Lamar Jackson. We beat PSU and #2 Clemson (we're the first team to win in Death Valley in many years). We beat #2 Miami. We went on a 4 game ACC winning streak last year where I think we were dogs in every game. We beat UCF on a magical play.
This game you hope that the ceiling was there. We could take the fight to the big dogs. Eventually, things were going to turn our way. Well, it hasn't worked out that way. We did beat UCF (who lost to 4-8 Tulsa) but got wrecked 28-0 by Virginia Tech. We lost to BC who fired their coach. I have no confidence that this team will win a bowl game. That's finishing 0-3 for two straight years. Just unacceptable.
Is the Floor the Ceiling?
So where do we go from here? Narduzzi's floor appears to be 5 wins but his ceiling is 7-8, hitting those numbers in 4 of his 8 years. I supported moving on from Dave Wannstedt because I believe Pitt can do, and deserves to do, better than 8 wins every once in awhile. I think Narduzzi still has a chance to be that guy but he really needs to show me something.
How can he do that? Follow the script above. Winning record in the ACC, beat the teams we are supposed to beat, upset Notre Dame or Florida State next year. In any event, he must win at least 8 games (3 OOC and then 5-3 in the ACC) for me to continue to support him. He's signed through 2024 so ADHL may see a 7 win season as sufficient. But I would venture to guess that she and I share closer views on this subject than Narduzzi would like. I hope that she explains the standard and holds him to it.
Winning ACC Record
Most of us realized that Pitt overscheduled for several years during Pat's early tenure. The OOC combo of PSU, OSU, and UCF was mostly a disaster. But Pat kept it together going 6-2, 5-3, 3-5, and 6-2 in the ACC. That's 20-12 and was something like tied for second with Miami over that span. We even won an ACC Coastal outright, Pitt's first conference title in almost 10 years. Pretty good, all things being equal.
The thinking was once Pat got an easier OOC, you could bank on 8+ win seasons because he was doing fairly well within the conference. Unfortunately, this year was a mess. We went 4-4 in the ACC, dropping winnable games against Miami and at home against BC. 4-4 in the ACC is just unacceptable, especially with this defense. Moreover, the ACC is going to get better in the near future. UVA has upgraded. VT has come out of the shadows. UNC is on the rise. GT has a good recruiting class coming in. Miami has their typical top-shelf talent level. These teams will not wait around for us. Pat needed to do some damage this year in the ACC and he failed. That's the prime reason why I think 8+ wins and 5+ in ACC next year should be a prerequisite for keeping his job.
Beating Lesser Teams
Relatedly, except for 2017, Narduzzi has generally beaten the teams he was supposed to beat. We had 0 bad losses in 2015 (UNC, Iowa, ND all 10+ wins, Miami 8, Navy was ranked); same in 2016 (UNC and OSU 10+ wins, Miami 9, UNC 8...I guess NU was a "bad" loss but we had a ton of people hurt); generally the same in 2018 (UCF and ND both 10+, PSU 9) except for Miami who was a 7 win team but really matched-up against our running game, and Stanford in the bowl game.
Again, he's not been perfect but there haven't been many head scratching losses like we saw with nearly every previous regime. Certainly almost no losses like to Akron, Youngstown, and UConn where we totally outclassed them and they somehow won. The conventional wisdom was that once Narduzzi's baseline in the ACC plus no real letdowns meant we were guaranteed a pretty good floor and ceiling. Well, this year we dropped 2 horrible, must-win games against Miami and BC. The latter was especially damning as BC fired their coach the next day. So instead of a 9+ win season we are fighting for 8 now. Really unacceptable in year 5.
Yearly Upset
The cherry on top of Narduzzi's baseline was that even if we didn't pull off that amazing year, we did manage some huge upsets. We beat Louisville with Lamar Jackson. We beat PSU and #2 Clemson (we're the first team to win in Death Valley in many years). We beat #2 Miami. We went on a 4 game ACC winning streak last year where I think we were dogs in every game. We beat UCF on a magical play.
This game you hope that the ceiling was there. We could take the fight to the big dogs. Eventually, things were going to turn our way. Well, it hasn't worked out that way. We did beat UCF (who lost to 4-8 Tulsa) but got wrecked 28-0 by Virginia Tech. We lost to BC who fired their coach. I have no confidence that this team will win a bowl game. That's finishing 0-3 for two straight years. Just unacceptable.
Is the Floor the Ceiling?
So where do we go from here? Narduzzi's floor appears to be 5 wins but his ceiling is 7-8, hitting those numbers in 4 of his 8 years. I supported moving on from Dave Wannstedt because I believe Pitt can do, and deserves to do, better than 8 wins every once in awhile. I think Narduzzi still has a chance to be that guy but he really needs to show me something.
How can he do that? Follow the script above. Winning record in the ACC, beat the teams we are supposed to beat, upset Notre Dame or Florida State next year. In any event, he must win at least 8 games (3 OOC and then 5-3 in the ACC) for me to continue to support him. He's signed through 2024 so ADHL may see a 7 win season as sufficient. But I would venture to guess that she and I share closer views on this subject than Narduzzi would like. I hope that she explains the standard and holds him to it.
