New bracketology
- Thread starter BballinsiderfromPitt
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42 in Kenpom, 41 in NET. We’re in a decent position but need a couple sexy ACC wins. A home win against UNC in a couple weeks would do wonders for bracketology purposes, just like last year.
Yeah for whatever reason we seem to have their number. Hopefully we get another convincing one
We are the 15th team out on Bracket Matrix. In 2 of 23 brackets. Its going to be near impossible to get in with what we have left. Just not enough Q1s and have to be almost perfect in the Q2s and Q3s. I'd put our chances at around 5%.
The "easiest" path is somehow going 2-4 vs Duke, @ Duke, @ UVa, @ Miami, @ Clem, @ NC St. Then going 11-2 vs UNC, VT, Syr, @ Syr, Lou, @ Lou, @ Wake, FSU, ND, @ GT, @ BC.
And even that probably doesn't get us in. Probably need to split the 6 Q1s and then go 11-2, possibly 10-3 with the 3 losses being to Q2s, not Q3s.
We basically lost any realistic chance at the NCAAT with the Mizzou and Clemson losses. I was going to make this another post today but we should have scheduled another good OOC game knowing we play in an A10-level ACC 12.
You have zero idea and know that your scenario is highly unlikely so you can hide behind empty theories. I know some people that would vote for you.
And if we played in the B1G would it be much different this year? Now the BE on the other hand…that’s a different story.
The B10 probably ends up with 7-8. Over 50% of the league. ACC will get 4 or 5. 1 or 2 from ACC 12.
That does it, I think. Maybe 3-3/13-7. Going to be super hard to split those 6 Q1s.
At Cuse
One of Duke games
At NC state
At Virginia
If they can’t win 4/5 of those potential quad 1 games, then they shouldn’t get in. They can win 4/5 on good nights. They could also go 0-5. Win tomorrow and against Cuse. Go from there. I’m not including Clemson as we will never beat them again. And Miami…At Wake may also be a quad 1 opp.
One of Duke games
At NC state
At Virginia
If they can’t win 4/5 of those potential quad 1 games, then they shouldn’t get in. They can win 4/5 on good nights. They could also go 0-5. Win tomorrow and against Cuse. Go from there. I’m not including Clemson as we will never beat them again. And Miami…At Wake may also be a quad 1 opp.
Purdue-Fort Wayne wont stay Q1. @ Syr isnt going to be Q1, I dont think. @ Wake might. Correct that we will never beat Clemson again. Its been 8 years and they haven't been good during that time.
I said beat Fort Wayne, not that it was important for quad. Cuse is right at 75. Q1 today but could swing either way.
Nobody knows EXACTLY what it will take but anyone who follows this semi-closely can tell you ROUGHLY what it will take. I will be correct within a game of what we need. Its pretty easy to figure out what is needed.
Why are you so bullish on the Big 10? Their collective NET at the top/middle isn’t any better than the ACC, and it’s actually worse.
The only real difference is ND/Louisville being just absolute anchors, but I think the ACC has more teams in the top 50, more teams in the top 100.
I'm not really. I just think teams like Indiana, Mich St, Neb, Iowa will win enough Q1 games to get to Dayton at least. They're going to get 7. You can mark me down for that. Its a great league for getting bids because there's never any really strong teams/guaranteed losses. Maybe Purdue this year. But everyone beats everyone. Like the Big 12 sorta. The whole Big 12 is going to go 9-9 and all get in with 7 Q1 wins
But if the ACC has more teams in the Top 75, Top 100…why wouldn’t ACC teams have just as good a chance of getting Q1 wins?
Purdue is miles better than any ACC team this season. So, those Q1 games include a team which is better than any in the ACC, not sure how any of this helps your argument
Two things are true:
- The ACC isn’t great. The top isn’t as strong as it once was and the bottom is awful. If Duke/UNC were performing as top 5 programs, it would hide some of the warts but when those two are “only” top 15-20 programs it bleeds downward.
- Outside of the Big 12, every conference has their warts. Not that it excuses the ACC’s issues, but nearly everyone is looking at their league with varying levels of concern. The whole thing will come down to three things: taking care of business at home, not getting picked off by a bottom feeder, and getting 1-2 wins over the top teams in the league.
We need to be more ambitious in the non-con moving forward but the path to the tournament is pretty clear even in a down ACC.
- The ACC isn’t great. The top isn’t as strong as it once was and the bottom is awful. If Duke/UNC were performing as top 5 programs, it would hide some of the warts but when those two are “only” top 15-20 programs it bleeds downward.
- Outside of the Big 12, every conference has their warts. Not that it excuses the ACC’s issues, but nearly everyone is looking at their league with varying levels of concern. The whole thing will come down to three things: taking care of business at home, not getting picked off by a bottom feeder, and getting 1-2 wins over the top teams in the league.
We need to be more ambitious in the non-con moving forward but the path to the tournament is pretty clear even in a down ACC.
No shot. Did you see this game tonight? 2 for gazillion from 3? Federiko stinks, GDG is going to get manhandled in ACC play. This will be a bottom tier team in league play, nowhere near an NIT team let alone NCAA Tournament team.
Let’s make a bet. If Pitt wins 15 or more games this season, then you never post again on this message board. If Pitt wins 14 or fewer games, then I’ll stop posting. Deal??
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Pitt will make the NIT. The top 4 ACC NET teams that don't make the NCAAT get auto bids to the NIT. If we assume the ACC only gets 4 NCAAT bids (ACC3+Clem) then the 4 NIT teams would be
35 Pitt
51 VT
63 NC St
70 Miami
80 Syr, 82 Wake, and 84 BC are next up. But Pitt has to take pretty bad for their NET to drop 40+
Sweet. Already starting up with the 4 bids nonsense for the ACC already. You take huge L's on that every single year. Fun stuff.
Our NET is 37. The idea that the committee would have us around 81 is silly. Let the ACC play out a bit before panic. We had much worse losses last year.
The NET is good but its based on blowouts. We need more. That only goes so far. We dont have a Q1 win or a Q2 win. We also have a Q3 loss. The good NET allows us to get in by maybe winning only 2 or 3 Q1s. Last year, we needed all 4.
Everyone who makes a bracket this far out is a moron. Most teams fighting for at large bids have a sample size of around five actual games and their per 100 possessions numbers are still swinging wildly.
Revisit this in a month before declaring us out of the field.
Revisit this in a month before declaring us out of the field.
I agree and I dont even look at this. I'll start looking at bracketology around mid-January and even then its a little early.
It must be depressing to feel like it's already over in December
Its not. Its just going to be really hard.
2-4 in the Q1s
11-2 in all others
Or
3-3 in the Q1s
9-4 in all others
Those 2 scenarios could do it
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