Some of the sky is falling comments after Jeter's committed to a school not named Pitt, made me do a little research to put recruiting, and specifically Narduzzi's, in perspective.
One of the comments I've read is that recruiting is generally in trouble because Narduzzi has already whiffed on a number of his top targets. But that fact is not a concern, because it is crazy to expect anything else. Here are some numbers and facts that help explain why.
Looking at one site, Pitt has given out 132 scholarships. If we end up with a class of 24 players, and not a single other offer goes out, that equals a commitment rate of 18% of offers.
67 of the 132 offers, slightly more than half, are 4 and 5 star guys. These guys all have many, many offers, a lot of them from the top programs in the country. We have to beat out the likes of OSU, ND, and Michigan to get any of them. Even Harbaugh isn't going to get more than a small percentage of his high end targets. If Pitt can win 10% of these battles, that is pretty awesome, considering the multiple power programs we're competing against for each kid. 10% of the 67 top targets equals 6.7, or let's call it 7 kids. Last year, Narduzzi got 8 kids who had 4 stars from at least one of the services - many of them coming in the days and weeks before signing day.
So yes, while Narduzzi has missed on many of his top targets, so has virtually every other coach in the country. If you get in the game with offers to the top players, you're going to lose most of the time. The knock BTW, against Chryst was that he didn't even try with most of the top kids.
So, if you are looking at the top end recruiting glass and noticing that its way more than half empty, you're right, but if its 85% empty and just 15% full, you are looking at a top ten class.
One of the comments I've read is that recruiting is generally in trouble because Narduzzi has already whiffed on a number of his top targets. But that fact is not a concern, because it is crazy to expect anything else. Here are some numbers and facts that help explain why.
Looking at one site, Pitt has given out 132 scholarships. If we end up with a class of 24 players, and not a single other offer goes out, that equals a commitment rate of 18% of offers.
67 of the 132 offers, slightly more than half, are 4 and 5 star guys. These guys all have many, many offers, a lot of them from the top programs in the country. We have to beat out the likes of OSU, ND, and Michigan to get any of them. Even Harbaugh isn't going to get more than a small percentage of his high end targets. If Pitt can win 10% of these battles, that is pretty awesome, considering the multiple power programs we're competing against for each kid. 10% of the 67 top targets equals 6.7, or let's call it 7 kids. Last year, Narduzzi got 8 kids who had 4 stars from at least one of the services - many of them coming in the days and weeks before signing day.
So yes, while Narduzzi has missed on many of his top targets, so has virtually every other coach in the country. If you get in the game with offers to the top players, you're going to lose most of the time. The knock BTW, against Chryst was that he didn't even try with most of the top kids.
So, if you are looking at the top end recruiting glass and noticing that its way more than half empty, you're right, but if its 85% empty and just 15% full, you are looking at a top ten class.
