One CFP projection
- Thread starter NCPitt
- Start date
If the CFP were today, we'd probably be in based on strength of record. For example, Central Catholic has a tougher SOS than Indiana. Pitt would easily be on over them. Not sure IU is Top 20 let alone #10 according to this tweet. Its all based on resume and while Pitt has been pretty lucky, it doesn't matter. The resume is good.
It's pretty early to be that drunk on a Monday.
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what else goes into it? I suspect our strength of record won’t be superior a few weeks from now, and if other metrics are used like basketball does…well…Indiana’s are superior to ours considering they’ve put up points, dominated games, never trailed or relied on luck to win a game.
So Pitt's #8 ESPN SOR gets them in, but Indiana's #12 gets them lambasted?
only 3 from the SEC getting in? not sure that would even be allowed.
This is what I was going to say. Four from Big 10 in but only three for the SEC. That's not right.
Georgia plays texas this weekend i believe. Maybe if texas rolls on them, they drop out.
Also, Bama is just pulling these wins out of their asses but they still have to play lsu and tennessee. i really doubt they can beat both.
so the sec has texas, georgia, bama, lsu, tennessee and maybe even a Texas a/m still in the mix. but alot of these teams still play each other.
i really think being in the SEC, even if you lose two regular season games, you can still make the playoffs, which is BS but it is what it is..
Big 10 will easily get 3 in with tosu, psu and oregon. but indiana? They play woverines and ohio state so just go ahead and chalk them up with two losses, ending any chance of them making it in.. So it's unlikely big 10 gets a 4th team in..
but again, 1/2 season left to play, a million things can happen still.
Question for folks ... are we going to presume that both teams appearing in the SEC and Big 10 championship games will be locks to make the playoffs? I think it's pretty clear both conferences will get two teams in, but the question is which two and then how many, if any, additional beyond that. Is there any scenario where the 3rd or even 4th place teams in the conference would jump ahead of the conference title game loser and that loser gets left out?
The loser of the Big 12 title game is getting left out.
I think both teams in the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC title games get in.
yeah, pretty sure both conferences will get minimum of 3 and one (SEC) will get 4..
weird to say this but if im #3 in both conferences, i almost would rather not play in the conference championship game. if im ohio state, im fine with oregon and psu playing for the big 10 title game while my players are at home, resting, getting ready for the playoffs..
Only thing though, if you win the conference, you get the bye, which is huge. So maybe i should say, i'd rather not play in the Conf champ game than be in it and lose..
Of course you wont know you'll lose unless you play in it and well, just forget i said anything.
looking at byu and Iowa state. neither play each other, neither really have much of a remaining schedule left. ISU plays Kansas state..
If both can go undefeated, both will be easily in the top 7-8 and well, i could see both making it in then. If either has a loss and then loses in the conference champ game, zero chance a 2 team loss makes it, same with the acc (miami or clemson)..
I have no problem with a 2-loss, or even 3-loss, SEC team being in under certain circumstances. What's funny, though, is that someone is going to catch a break by not making the conference championship in some of these years. Like if Alabama loses only one more game and goes 10-2 they'll probably be in. But it could work out in a way where 10-3 might put them just out.
I mean it's probably a lot less likely now, since it's the two best teams making the conference championship rather than having some scrub team limp into the game at 8-4 because they're in the weaker division. So if 10-2 Alabama lost to, say, the #1 team in the nation (Texas or whomever) it still might not knock them out. But there might be circumstances where it's possible.
I think if Pitt can go 10-2 in the regular season and then win the ACC Championship Game, then they make it. That's a realistic scenario, but would depend on who those two losses are to. Theoretically, Pitt can go 11-1 and NOT make the ACC Championship Game. I think they get in under that scenario as well. In fact, it might even be preferable to going 12-0 and losing in the ACC Title Game.
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I have no clue how the playoff committee will rank the teams, but if I had to do it today, I would have the following conference distributions:
SEC, 5: B10, 3: ACC, 2: B12, 1: MW, 1. That seems about right to me.
Unfortunately, I wouldn't have PITT in there yet. Fortunately, PITT does control their own destiny, and by winning, can make the playoffs.
In terms of seeding, being number 5 is a decent place to be. One starts off with the worst team in the pool. Then, they simply have to beat the worst P4 champ to get into the semis. Still, there is no way I wouldn't try to win a conference championship just so I could get that 5 seed.
SEC, 5: B10, 3: ACC, 2: B12, 1: MW, 1. That seems about right to me.
Unfortunately, I wouldn't have PITT in there yet. Fortunately, PITT does control their own destiny, and by winning, can make the playoffs.
In terms of seeding, being number 5 is a decent place to be. One starts off with the worst team in the pool. Then, they simply have to beat the worst P4 champ to get into the semis. Still, there is no way I wouldn't try to win a conference championship just so I could get that 5 seed.
I'd say these teams can each afford up to at least two losses to comfortably get in:
Texas
Alabama
Georgia
But LSU, Ole Miss, A&M, and Tennessee might very well be playing for only one spot. None of them have impressed me much. So I think the SEC gets 4 in the end. (I know you were projecting as of today).
BIG: Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State are almost certainly getting in, but that might be it.
Notre Dame has a chance to rack up some wins against teams that look good on paper but that they're way better than (Army and Navy). So they're definitely in if they win out and it might be close if they lose one more.
G5 - whomever that may be
ACC - Clemson and Miami look likely
Big 12 champ
So it looks like an inner-SEC battle between the aforemetioned teams for one spot, a G5 battle amongst themselves, and then the final spot might be ND/SMU/Big 12 runner-up.
I'll be kind of disappointed if two G5 teams sneak in.
Agreed. I like that a G5 will make it, but I wouldn't allow more than 1.
A 1-loss P4 school is almost guaranteed to make the CFP. I’m not optimistic a 2-loss ACC school gets in.
2 loss B10 or SEC teams are guaranteed. 1 loss ACC or B12 teams are guaranteed. This could create interesting situations where certain teams are better off resting up and not playing in their conference championship game. A 10-2 SEC or B10 team....and this could be PSU....would be better served skipping their conference championship game so that they don't risk a 3rd loss. The benefit would be a 1st Round bye if you win it but if its me, I'd rather not play in it and risk the loss and then you probably get a home game in Round 1.
How does one not play in a conference championship game, though? Just send the rsvp invitation back with a big "no thanks" written on it?
I mean you dont get to choose not to play, though I'd love to see teams opt out. But lets say you are Pitt and you are 11-1 with a loss to Clemson. Lets say Clemson is in at 8-0 in the league. If you are a Pitt fan, do you want to make the ACCCG where you can potentially win and get a bye. Or do you root for 10-1 Miami to beat Syracuse so they can go to Charlotte and risk that 2nd loss instead?
That's really hard ... I think given how much higher Miami is than Pitt in the polls, and the fact that the playoff committee in the past has let teams in with conference championship game losses (like 2022 TCU), there is a good chance Miami gets in over us even with that 2nd loss on its resume. You'd get into things like comparing losses to Clemson (who played them closer?). But if I'm Pitt, to avoid any doubt, I would want the chance to control my own destiny and play Clemson again and try to beat them the second time around.
In that scenario, Pitt isn't getting in because Clemson and Miami are higher in the polls. You're trying to hard to create a problem that won't ever exist. Pitt isn't going to a CFP unless they win the ACC or become something they haven't been in a really long time.
and yet they'd probably be favored by 3 at least on a neutral field against Pitt...they can only play the conference teams on their schedule...thus far none of them came within 14 points of them. Pitt has had two nail biters against the two teams tied for last place in the weakest P4 conference conference...Now, don't make me talk ill of Pitt again by bringing up stupid points...Indiana is a good football team. Had you watched them as I have (for personal wagering purposes) you would know that.
feel like the winner of the bama-Tenn game will be in playoffs and loser will def be out. that's going to be a big game to determine who the 4th SEC team is who gets the playoff bid..
i agree, this will never happen. Only way the ACC and big 12 get 2 teams in, is if an undefeated team loses in the conference championship game..
not a fan of the big 12 at all but byu and iowa state really dont have too many "tests" left on their schedules. i think one of them plays K state and that's it..
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If Tennessee loses they're almost definitely out, because they're probably taking an L against Georgia and I could even see them struggling with Kentucky or Vanderbilt. They have not looked good.
Alabama loss would be pretty detrimental but I could see them recovering only because they've done it before and already have a solid Georgia win on their resume.
I think a 1 loss P4 team who doesn't win or play in their conference championship gets in over 3 loss B10 or SEC schools.
but would a one loss team in the acc or big 12 not even play in a conference championship? Possibly i guess, pitt could lose to clemson while they and miami run table
Big 12, only situation would be if K State beats Iowa state in final game, they play BYU and leave a one loss ISU out of champ game
HOnestly, and i really dont want to go thru all of the remaining teams schedules but the SEC and big 10 teams who can very easily finish the season with 2 losses or less:
SEC:
Texas - 6-0
Ga - 5-1
Bama - 5-1
LSU 5-1
Tenn 5 - 1
Texas a/m 5 - 1
Missouri 5 - 1
BIG 10
Oregon 6-0
psu 6-0
tosu 5 - 1
Indiana 6 - 0
So my point here is, you really dont have to get a 3 loss team from the big 10 or sec to fill out the 8 bids they'll get, they will easily have at least 8 teams (if not more) with 2 or less losses. So does a 3 loss big 10 / sec team get a bid? No because a 3 loss team from those conferences will be like 6th or 7th place..
The real question is, does a 2 loss big 10 / sec team, who does NOT play in a conference championship, get a bid over a 1 loss ACC / Big 12 team who's one loss is in conference championship?
So lets look at this with real teams. Clemson vs Miami, clemson wins championship, giving canes one loss. Do they make it over a 10 - 2 LSU or Bama team?
I think if Miami's lone loss is to Clemson, and assuming Clemson hasn't lost since week 1 to a very good UGA team, and Miami keeps it somewhat close, then Miami deserves in ahead of a 2 loss LSU or Bama.
Hypothetically, 11-1 Pitt gets in over 11-2 Miami. Not even a question. Both would have a loss to Clemson. Miami would have that extra loss in there somewhere. Pitt would have the better resume based on SOS. Again, the CFP ranks resumes, not teams. Polls do the opposite.
If Pitt goes 12-0, they are in regardless of the ACC championship game results.
It would be interesting because I tend to think the selection committee or whoever picks would screw Pitt if they can.
Any 12-0 P4 team who loses their championship game is in without a doubt. Even that terrible TCU team did this and got in over an Alabama team that Vegas had as a 14 point favorite over in hypocritical spreads. A 1 loss P4 team will never miss.
Because all those people are a part of the wide ranging conspiracy involving conference administrators (first Big East, now ACC), referees (first Big East, now ACC), poll voters and national media members to screw over Pitt at any chance they could. That's how afraid the whole world is that if they leave us to our own devices we will dominate all of college sports at a level never seen before.
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