OT: Might Aaron Judge land the first billion dollar contract?

Sean Miller Fan

Lair Hall of Famer
Oct 30, 2001
54,077
16,466
113
Mike Trout got half a billion for 12 years. Judge is 30 but given inflation levels, is it crazy if he gets a billion over 10-12 years? If so, can you send this to Message Board Geniuses?
 

CaptainMurphy

Heisman Winner
Dec 10, 2004
8,465
5,249
113
Mike Trout has had seven seasons over 7 WAR and two others very close (including this season). Judge has had two...his rookie season and this year (his contract year). And Trout has played a more valuable position (CF vs RF) over that period, though I understand his time in center is largely over.

Judge has had an epic season but he's not in the same category as Trout at the time of his contract.
 

Sean Miller Fan

Lair Hall of Famer
Oct 30, 2001
54,077
16,466
113
This might be the dumbest thread you've ever made, and that's saying something.
1. How much is he going to get? I dare you to answer. You wont. I would say 10 years/$600 million to be safe

2. Can we send this to Message Board geniuses if its such a dumb question?
 

Zeldas Open Roof

Board of Trustee
Gold Member
Sep 18, 2018
28,819
36,192
113
these contracts are crazy and honestly, with baseball being so analytical, im surprised they are still rising. Trout is making like 35m a year, his WAR is 4. wouldnt you rather have two really good players at 17.5m a year or 3 good players at 11m a year vs putting so much into one player who gives you 4 wins a year?

it just doesnt make sense to me to pay one player that much. even in a salary cap - free league..
 

TheWerewolfFromTwilight

All Conference
Oct 25, 2021
5,454
4,501
113
these contracts are crazy and honestly, with baseball being so analytical, im surprised they are still rising. Trout is making like 35m a year, his WAR is 4. wouldnt you rather have two really good players at 17.5m a year or 3 good players at 11m a year vs putting so much into one player who gives you 4 wins a year?

it just doesnt make sense to me to pay one player that much. even in a salary cap - free league..

Nutting has figured this one out. Spend $750,000 and go 62-100 instead of 66-96.

Total savings = $34,250,000

Total difference it makes = 0
 
Aug 26, 2007
4,761
1,400
113
these contracts are crazy and honestly, with baseball being so analytical, im surprised they are still rising. Trout is making like 35m a year, his WAR is 4. wouldnt you rather have two really good players at 17.5m a year or 3 good players at 11m a year vs putting so much into one player who gives you 4 wins a year?

it just doesnt make sense to me to pay one player that much. even in a salary cap - free league..
Trout's WAR is 6, he hit 40 home runs. And he only played 119 games
 
  • Like
Reactions: CaptainMurphy

wbrpanther

Lair Hall of Famer
Gold Member
Jul 5, 2001
46,282
24,373
113
Mike Trout got half a billion for 12 years. Judge is 30 but given inflation levels, is it crazy if he gets a billion over 10-12 years? If so, can you send this to Message Board Geniuses?
48 million a year is already outrageous. 100 million a year is ……uh no!
 

CaptainMurphy

Heisman Winner
Dec 10, 2004
8,465
5,249
113
Trout's WAR is 6, he hit 40 home runs. And he only played 119 games

Mike Trout is consistently great. I get the feeling that, should he be able to stay healthy, he will adjust his game to stay productive for another decade. Kind of in the mold of someone like Tony Gwynn. He doesn't strike me as being someone who will fall off a cliff like most other hitters do.
 

HailToPitt725

Heisman Winner
May 16, 2016
8,307
7,799
113
I want it to happen just for the comparisons that would be made between his salary and the Pirates’ payroll.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Pitt79

CaptainMurphy

Heisman Winner
Dec 10, 2004
8,465
5,249
113
im not saying he's not good, just saying that it's such an incredible investment in one player when you could spread it out to 2 or even 3 really good players..

Yes. It's part of the reason why the Angels are consistently not great. But I suppose that's the price you pay for having the second best player in the history of baseball on your team.

I guess that's the dilemma. If you are an Angels fan, do you want to trade Trout and maybe have a chance at success or keep him and watch a HOF every night play for your team.
 

h2p_5150

Head Coach
Oct 20, 2016
11,824
18,406
113
Idk but I can't wait to see how the Angels miss the playoffs with Trout, Ohtani, Syndergaard, Rendon and Judge.
 

recruitsreadtheseboards

Lair Hall of Famer
Gold Member
Jun 11, 2006
83,382
71,291
113
Mike Trout has had seven seasons over 7 WAR and two others very close (including this season). Judge has had two...his rookie season and this year (his contract year). And Trout has played a more valuable position (CF vs RF) over that period, though I understand his time in center is largely over.

Judge has had an epic season but he's not in the same category as Trout at the time of his contract.
How are the Angels doing??? They have done great with both Trout and Ohtani? All those playoff wins.

These are team sports, shouldn't winning be important.
 

CaptainMurphy

Heisman Winner
Dec 10, 2004
8,465
5,249
113
Idk but I can't wait to see how the Angels miss the playoffs with Trout, Ohtani, Syndergaard, Rendon and Judge.

The problem with the Angels was never the big Trout contract. It's all of the others like the Rendon and especially the Pujols contracts. At some point you need to realize you need 2-3 star players and fill the rest in with high quality role players, the kind of players who make the all star team a time or two over their career.
 
Last edited:

pittchagg

Heisman Candidate
Gold Member
Mar 30, 2017
7,631
13,965
113
Idk but I can't wait to see how the Angels miss the playoffs with Trout, Ohtani, Syndergaard, Rendon and Judge.
Syndergaard just doesn’t have the juice anymore, and Rendon hasn’t been able to stay close to healthy.
 

CJsE

Junior
Mar 5, 2016
3,223
2,220
113
1. How much is he going to get? I dare you to answer. You wont. I would say 10 years/$600 million to be safe

2. Can we send this to Message Board geniuses if its such a dumb question?
Trout got $426million over 12 years when he was 26 years old. In the previous 7 seasons he won the MVP twice, was runner-up four times, and was 4th in voting once. His average WAR during the prior three seasons was 9.1.

Judge will be 31 next season. He has never won an MVP, might not this year even though he's been incredible and would win it in almost any other year. He has a 10.6 WAR this season (Trout had 2 10.5 seasons prior to his contract). His WAR over the past 3 full season (omitting 2020) was 7.4.

The number of batters that hit 45+ home runs after age 35 can probably be counted on two hands with fingers to spare, and 2/3 of those were during the steroid decade (Bonds, Galarraga, Palmeiro, McGwire).

The average MLB payroll has risen 16% since Trout got his contract. The Yankees payroll has risen 14.5% since Trout got his contract. He turned down 7 years $213million before the season, so I'm going to say he earned himself an extra year and another $100 million. So 8 years $313 million.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CaptainMurphy
Aug 26, 2007
4,761
1,400
113
im not saying he's not good, just saying that it's such an incredible investment in one player when you could spread it out to 2 or even 3 really good players..
One trout contract nets you two alex Bergmans or two Charlie Mortons. I’d rather have a guy who hasn’t had an ops lower than 939 in a full season of his career. trout is a monster and consistently a monster
 

recruitsreadtheseboards

Lair Hall of Famer
Gold Member
Jun 11, 2006
83,382
71,291
113
One trout contract nets you two alex Bergmans or two Charlie Mortons. I’d rather have a guy who hasn’t had an ops lower than 939 in a full season of his career. trout is a monster and consistently a monster
Again, what has the Angels won with Trout??

It is a shame, but for guys like Judge and Trout, there only chance of winning is going to the Dodgers or Yankees. Just going after the biggest pay day doesn't do it.
 

Sean Miller Fan

Lair Hall of Famer
Oct 30, 2001
54,077
16,466
113
How are the Angels doing??? They have done great with both Trout and Ohtani? All those playoff wins.

These are team sports, shouldn't winning be important.
What do the analytics say about 1 baseball player's impact on wins and losses? How many wins is an all-time great like Trout or Judge responsible for? If you take them off a team, how many fewer games are won? Baseball is an individual sport like golf but with a team component like the Ryder Cup. One baseball player or one golfer does not impact a team like a star QB, basketball player, etc. But they are paid like it.
 

recruitsreadtheseboards

Lair Hall of Famer
Gold Member
Jun 11, 2006
83,382
71,291
113
What do the analytics say about 1 baseball player's impact on wins and losses? How many wins is an all-time great like Trout or Judge responsible for? If you take them off a team, how many fewer games are won? Baseball is an individual sport like golf but with a team component like the Ryder Cup. One baseball player or one golfer does not impact a team like a star QB, basketball player, etc. But they are paid like it.
SMF makes a very good point. Of course they use "WAR" as this metric, but again a CF who may have 4-5 at bats in a game and 6-7 plays in the field no way can impact a game like a QB or even a rush LB or any basketball starter or hockey player, especially goalie. Only a pitcher has that impact, and he only goes every 5 games (20%).

So WAR is somewhat a way overrated stat.
 

CaptainMurphy

Heisman Winner
Dec 10, 2004
8,465
5,249
113
Again, what has the Angels won with Trout??

It is a shame, but for guys like Judge and Trout, there only chance of winning is going to the Dodgers or Yankees. Just going after the biggest pay day doesn't do it.

The Angels aren't bad because of the Trout contract. They are bad because all of the other bad contracts they've signed. They've depleted the farm system over the years due to trading, etc...and ended up in a point where the only way to put a team around Trout was free agency. And they went about it very poorly. They should have been looking for lesser, but still very high talent, like Starling Marte or KeBryan Hayes to give a few Pirates examples. Instead they were always in the running to sign every big free agent like Pujols and Rendon.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CJsE and pittchagg

pittchagg

Heisman Candidate
Gold Member
Mar 30, 2017
7,631
13,965
113
The Angels aren't bad because of the Trout contract. They are bad because all of the other bad contracts they've signed. They've depleted the farm system over the years due to trading, etc...and ended up in a point where the only way to put a team around Trout was free agency. And they went about it very poorly. They should have been looking for lesser, but still very high talent, like Starling Marte or KeBryan Hayes to give a few Pirates examples. Instead they were always in the running to sign every big free agent like Pujols and Rendon.
Yeah, they signed a bunch of guys who were on the bad end of the age curve to big contracts, and then got unlucky with pretty much all of them.
 

Sean Miller Fan

Lair Hall of Famer
Oct 30, 2001
54,077
16,466
113
SMF makes a very good point. Of course they use "WAR" as this metric, but again a CF who may have 4-5 at bats in a game and 6-7 plays in the field no way can impact a game like a QB or even a rush LB or any basketball starter or hockey player, especially goalie. Only a pitcher has that impact, and he only goes every 5 games (20%).

So WAR is somewhat a way overrated stat.
The 6-7 plays in the field are largely irrelevant. How many more games would the Pirates have won with Judge or Trout. I would say 5-10. On a good team like the Yankees, Judge or Trout may only be solely responsible for 3-5 wins.
 

MattP31

Junior
Gold Member
Aug 27, 2013
3,681
3,781
113
I’d pretty much hard pass on him unless he wanted to do a Trevor Bauer like deal- shorter term but heavy AV. Based solely on his age, some injury history, and not thinking a guy with his body type ends up aging well over a longterm contract. I think anything over 5 years will end up being a massive problem for a team and we all know that Judge is looking for his one big payday
 

Sean Miller Fan

Lair Hall of Famer
Oct 30, 2001
54,077
16,466
113
He’s today’s Albert Pujols. He’s gonna get a huge contract. But far before that contract expires he won’t be worth near whatever he ends up getting.
Correct. He will be making huge bucks at 41 and 42 and may not even be an all-star but its what you have to pay to get him to play for you in his 30s
 

Zeldas Open Roof

Board of Trustee
Gold Member
Sep 18, 2018
28,819
36,192
113
Again, what has the Angels won with Trout??

It is a shame, but for guys like Judge and Trout, there only chance of winning is going to the Dodgers or Yankees. Just going after the biggest pay day doesn't do it.
they have trout and ohtani and cant win. two of the best 3 players in baseball. Like i said, putting all your eggs in one (or two) baskets doesnt win you divisions..
 

recruitsreadtheseboards

Lair Hall of Famer
Gold Member
Jun 11, 2006
83,382
71,291
113
The thing is, the original "fantasy" sport was baseball, because it is made for day to day analysis of statistics. And so many of these guys are stats collectors. But again, it is almost individual as a sport and it isn't fantasy
 

Sean Miller Fan

Lair Hall of Famer
Oct 30, 2001
54,077
16,466
113
The thing is, the original "fantasy" sport was baseball, because it is made for day to day analysis of statistics. And so many of these guys are stats collectors. But again, it is almost individual as a sport and it isn't fantasy
I think the reason why analytics work so well in baseball is because its an individual sport.
 

Joe the Panther Fan

Lair Hall of Famer
Jul 6, 2001
37,927
17,685
113
SMF makes a very good point. Of course they use "WAR" as this metric, but again a CF who may have 4-5 at bats in a game and 6-7 plays in the field no way can impact a game like a QB or even a rush LB or any basketball starter or hockey player, especially goalie. Only a pitcher has that impact, and he only goes every 5 games (20%).

So WAR is somewhat a way overrated stat.

You understand that that's why a really good MLB player might have a WAR of 5 or 6 in a 162 game season, right?

The equivalent player in a 16 or 17 game season would have a WAR of .5 or .6. I wonder, do you think that if there was a way to compute such a thing in football, would TJ Watt's WAR be greater or less than .5?
 

CaptainMurphy

Heisman Winner
Dec 10, 2004
8,465
5,249
113
they have trout and ohtani and cant win. two of the best 3 players in baseball. Like i said, putting all your eggs in one (or two) baskets doesnt win you divisions..

But that isn't because of Trout and Ohtani. It's because of having a terrible front office and no farm system to speak of for years. They should easily be able to build a good team around those two and be under the cap. Heck, you put Trout and Ohtani on the Pirates and I think there is a decent chance we'd have a pretty good team and still be under $100 million in payroll.
 
Last edited:

Latest posts