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OT: Penguins offseason.

ChiefJusticeMarshall

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Jun 14, 2020
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Now the NHL's season is officially over, things are going to move rapidly as the draft is this weekend, and free agency next week. I just want to clarify things in regards to "buyouts".

To highlight how a "buyout" works.
First of all, to any guy on a 35+ contract, there is no "buyout". You can cut, demote, but you are paying it. That is why the Pens were stuck with Jeff Carter. So buying out say Geno or Letang does nothing for you.

Here are the rules, and then a good example of application:
For players that are 26 or older, a buyout is 2/3 of the remaining salary owed on the contract. For players that are under 26, a buyout is 1/3 of the remaining salary owed on the contract. All buyouts are spread out over twice the remaining years of the contract.

So what does this mean? Say you want to buy out Ryan Graves. According to CapFriendly, he has 5 years remaining at an AAV of $4.5 Million per year. Buying him out? That means the cap hit for the Pens will be $3 million for the next TEN YEARS!!! Same with Jarry. He is owed $5.375 per year over the next 4. A buyout means the cap hit would be $3.6 million over 8 years.

That is why say you can get a trade for Graves, and you would have to retain $1.5 million per year, even if it is a bag of pucks, it is much better for your cap and long (and short) term than a buyout. The Pens are still paying against the cap for Jack Johnson the next 2 seasons at ~ $900K per year.

For guys under the age of 26, it is 1/3 the AAV (cap hit) over twice the life of the contract.

Hope this helps if there are questions.
 
Now the NHL's season is officially over, things are going to move rapidly as the draft is this weekend, and free agency next week. I just want to clarify things in regards to "buyouts".

To highlight how a "buyout" works.
First of all, to any guy on a 35+ contract, there is no "buyout". You can cut, demote, but you are paying it. That is why the Pens were stuck with Jeff Carter. So buying out say Geno or Letang does nothing for you.

Here are the rules, and then a good example of application:
For players that are 26 or older, a buyout is 2/3 of the remaining salary owed on the contract. For players that are under 26, a buyout is 1/3 of the remaining salary owed on the contract. All buyouts are spread out over twice the remaining years of the contract.

So what does this mean? Say you want to buy out Ryan Graves. According to CapFriendly, he has 5 years remaining at an AAV of $4.5 Million per year. Buying him out? That means the cap hit for the Pens will be $3 million for the next TEN YEARS!!! Same with Jarry. He is owed $5.375 per year over the next 4. A buyout means the cap hit would be $3.6 million over 8 years.

That is why say you can get a trade for Graves, and you would have to retain $1.5 million per year, even if it is a bag of pucks, it is much better for your cap and long (and short) term than a buyout. The Pens are still paying against the cap for Jack Johnson the next 2 seasons at ~ $900K per year.

For guys under the age of 26, it is 1/3 the AAV (cap hit) over twice the life of the contract.

Hope this helps if there are questions.
- Thanks for opening an offseason thread as things are about to get interesting with trades, the NHL draft, and free agency all about to happen.

- We had a detailed discussion of buyouts a month or two ago, I think, in that "Forgotten Pens" thread when someone inquired about buying out Jarry ...... it is a lot more complicated and works a little differently then you mentioned ......

- There are 2 separate issues in buyouts ....1) How much money does the team owe the player over what period of time and 2) What is the cap hit on the team each year in a buyout ...... they are calculated differently.

- Also, some contracts in players 35+ can be bought out with a reduction in cap hit in the exact same way younger players contract buyouts work and in others there is no change in structure or decrease in the amount of cap hit as you mentioned above ....... if a 35+contract is 2 years or longer and has a signing bonus in the 2nd or later years OR is front loaded in salary, there will be no decrease/change in the cap hit in a buyout .... but if the 35+ contract has no signing bonuses after the 1st year and salary does not decrease after the 1st year, the player can be bought out with the same reduction in cap hit as a younger player buyout ..... you are correct that both Malkin and Letang have 35+ contracts structured such that a buyout would not reduce the cap hit.

- Let's take a buyout of Jarry (again I went over his exact example in that other thread) ...... first, to calculate the money owed to the player by the team (and since Jarry is older than 26), you take 2/3 of his remaining base salary in his contract and add 100% of his signing bonuses (which have to be paid off in full) to that and pay it off over twice the number of years left in the contract ....... the amount may vary year to year depending on signing bonuses each year ...... Jarry, for example, has $12,575,000 base salary remaining on his contract (has different base salaries each year) and $7,500,000 in signing bonuses (a total of 20,075,000) over 4 years left on the contract ...... so, the amount the Pens would have to pay him over 8 years in salary and bonuses would be 2/3 x 12,575,000 = 8,383,333,33 + 7,500,000 = $15, 883,333.33 (instead of 20,075,000 over 4 years without a buyout) ...... you would pay the reduced base salary in equal amounts each year x 8 (1,047,917 per year) and add to that whatever the signing bonus is that year (the total over 8 years would be 15,883,333.33).

- Above is salary owed to the player, but what would the cap hit each year over the 8 years be to buyout Jarry (it is recalculated each year depending on what is left on the contract and thus may differ year to year) ..... to calculate the cap hit each year there are 3 steps ..... Step 1) Multiply the remaining base salary left on the contract (12,575,000) x 2/3 = 8,383,333 and divide by the number of years on the buyout (8) = $1,047,917 which is the BUYOUT COST per year x 8 years ....... Step 2) Determine the savings to the team that year which = Base salary that year minus the buyout cost (this next year it would be $5,400,000 in base salary - 1,047,917 buyout cost = $4,352,083 in savings ...... Step 3) the cap hit next year would be, AAV Cap Hit ($5,375,000) - Savings that year ($4,352,083) = Cap Hit the 1st year to buyout Jarry would be $1,022,917

- Do the calculations each year and the cap hit to buyout Jarry would be ... Year 1 = $1,022,917 .... Year 2 = $1,997,917 ..... Year 3 = $5,297,917 ...... Year 4 = $4,797,917 ....... Years 5 thru 8 = $1,047,917 each year for 4 years OR a total cap hit of $17,308,336 over 8 years instead of $21,500,000 (AAV cap hit of 5,375,000 x 4 years) over 4 years without a buyout.

- Sorry for the long, complicated post but wanted to point out the buyout process is somewhat complex and most general managers don't like to buyout players which I think your post implied.
 
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Dubas has a tough job ...... he wants to help improve the team for next year while building for the future with draft picks and adding prospects ....... hard to do both.

Needs for next years team seem to be a top 6 forward, a bottom 6 forward who can score some goals, a top 4 left defenseman, and figure out the goalie situation all while trying to get future players and prospects ....... he has trades, draft picks, UFA signings, and development of players already in the system to accomplish his objectives ...... seems unlikely he will be able to do everything he wants to.

Will DOC and/or Puustinen develop into better goal scorers on the bottom 6, can they trade Reilly Smith to open cap space and sign a top 6 forward in free agency, can POJ continue to play like he did the last 3+ weeks of the season with Letang or Graves have a comeback season to become solid top 4 defensemen or do they trade for one, do they go with Jarry and Ned in goal or trade one and bring in a veteran or promote Blomqvist (is he ready ?), can Poulin and Puljujarvi be part of an effective 4th line ...... what trades, UFA signings, draft picks will they make and will more of their moves be to build for the future at this point ....... so many possibilities, hard to predict what Dubas will do but will be interesting to see what happens very soon !
 
Dubas has a tough job ...... he wants to help improve the team for next year while building for the future with draft picks and adding prospects ....... hard to do both.

Needs for next years team seem to be a top 6 forward, a bottom 6 forward who can score some goals, a top 4 left defenseman, and figure out the goalie situation all while trying to get future players and prospects ....... he has trades, draft picks, UFA signings, and development of players already in the system to accomplish his objectives ...... seems unlikely he will be able to do everything he wants to.

Will DOC and/or Puustinen develop into better goal scorers on the bottom 6, can they trade Reilly Smith to open cap space and sign a top 6 forward in free agency, can POJ continue to play like he did the last 3+ weeks of the season with Letang or Graves have a comeback season to become solid top 4 defensemen or do they trade for one, do they go with Jarry and Ned in goal or trade one and bring in a veteran or promote Blomqvist (is he ready ?), can Poulin and Puljujarvi be part of an effective 4th line ...... what trades, UFA signings, draft picks will they make and will more of their moves be to build for the future at this point ....... so many possibilities, hard to predict what Dubas will do but will be interesting to see what happens very soon !
He does. The refusal to maybe admit that they needed to retool/rebuild a few years earlier really puts him against the wall. The first two things, and these are what we all can hope for, is Karlsson's last 12 games transfers over to next year, because that is who we were hoping to get. Secondly, he has to hope Graves rebounds somewhat, gets some confidence back and is a serviceable player.

Obviously the PP needs revamped and the next order of business is for the coaches to take over from the players and put guys in the best spots to succeed, even if that means taking someone like Geno off of the PP if he is not willing to change.

Obviously the bottom 6 needs rebuilt (again) but I would have fired Sullivan. I see no willingness from him to change anything and admit this is not the 2017 roster and they can't play that way anymore.
 
What do we think of today's trade and 2 second rounders? I know not enough about the draft to even have an opinion about the 2 kids. Hoping to see Jarry shipped off tbh.
 
What do we think of today's trade and 2 second rounders? I know not enough about the draft to even have an opinion about the 2 kids. Hoping to see Jarry shipped off tbh.
More 30 year Olds. Just what this team needs. I am not liking Dubas very much at this point.
 
Ehhh, traded some cap space for a 2nd round pick and a younger Jeff Carter. I doubt Dubas is done dealing, we'll see.
Yeah, it looks like we’re prioritizing draft picks right now. It helps that Philly is paying 50% of his cap hit, too. I don’t hate the trade, but I also don’t think it makes us absolutely better.
 
Yeah....I mean I have no opinion on the draft picks, it isn't like this is football or basketball. They seemed to have drafted guys who were projected to go much earlier than they did, so hopefully that is a good thing.

As for the trade, hard to comment until we see what the "future considerations" are. Bizarre in the fact they also got a #2 in next year's draft. I am assuming they move out a Smith or Rackell or something like that.

This week will be interesting.
 
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Yeah....I mean I have no opinion on the draft picks, it isn't like this is football or basketball. They seemed to have drafted guys who were projected to go much earlier than they did, so hopefully that is a good thing.

As for the trade, hard to comment until we see what the "future considerations" are. Bizarre in the fact they also got a #2 in next year's draft. I am assuming they move out a Smith or Rackell or something like that.

This week will be interesting.
I kind of hope they keep Rakell, he had a bad year, trading him seems like they'd be selling low.

Hard to believe Hayes is being paid 7m a year, someone overpaid.
 
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What do we think of today's trade and 2 second rounders? I know not enough about the draft to even have an opinion about the 2 kids. Hoping to see Jarry shipped off tbh.
More 30 year Olds. Just what this team needs. I am not liking Dubas very much at this point.
- Hayes is 32 and had a bad season with St. Louis last year and they wanted to dump his cap space ..... to do so they had to also send a 2nd round pick for 2025 to the Pens and the Flyers are paying 50% of his 7.1M cap hit (he has 2 seasons left on his contract) ...... he will be center depth for the Pens on the bottom 6 and may actually be an upgrade on Acciari (Hayes may add some offense to the bottom 6 and is solid defensively) ....... from what I've read, the "future consideration" should be very little ........ It isn't a major deal but I think the Pens are hoping Hayes can have a bounce back season and add to their bottom 6 and his contract is short enough, it shouldn't hurt long term plus we get a 2nd round pick out of it, we will see how it turns out .....

- Regarding our two 2nd round picks today who knows for sure ..... the consensus seems to be that Harrison Brunicke, a RD has good size, very good skater with good speed, and a lot of skill, pretty high hockey IQ who likes to move up into the play offensively but also has good defensive awareness with a good reach/stick in the defensive zone ...... he sometimes gets overly aggressive offensively taking risks (should fit in well with the Pens ... HAHA) ..... he played on a bad team and got hurt mid-season and was out a month or two but came back at the end of the season and played for Canada in the U-18 WJC's ...... the other 2nd round pick, Tanner Howe a LW, is smaller (5"10"-5'11", 180+lbs), his skating is apparently somewhat average but he is a very aggressive player who is said to battle all the time, is a good 2 way player, was thought to be a pretty high 1st round pick at one point but his rating slipped to late 1st round, early 2nd round, playing style compared to Zach Hyman ....

- Dubas has said that he does not want to get players in free agency that require high priced, long term contracts but I suspect he may target some free agents that would not require as high a price or term ( Max Domi type maybe) especially if he can clear some more cap space ...... and I think he will want to make more trades to clear that cap space and/or get draft picks and/or a hockey trade ....... Reilly Smith seems the most likely at present to be traded ...... Rakell could be traded but because of their contracts, I think, Reilly is more likely ...... I don't think the Pens are actively shopping Jarry but have made it is known to the league that he is available for the right price ....... I think Dubas would like to dump Graves but highly doubt any takers ...... they will sign Crosby and would like to extend Pettersson who has one year left on his contract ...... they have to resign POJ and they may try to resign Bemstrom for bottom 6 depth ...... obviously there are so many variables and so much of this is a guess but it will be fascinating to see what happens !
 
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Hayes stinks. He was a Vigneault/Fletcher signing, and there’s a reason why both of those guys were jettisoned into the sun. He’s not gonna be worth even 50% of the cap hit.
 
Dang, Tampa. Acquiring the rights to Guentzel today via trade. I would think Tampa wouldn't do that unless they have a gentleman's agreement for him to sign.
 
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Tampa Bay acquired the rights to Guentzel from Carolina for a 3rd Round pick ...... Guentzel can still become an UFA tomorrow, so to give up a 3rd Round pick, you would think TB may well have a general agreement with Jake (TB has cleared a lot of cap space with trades and saying they are letting Stamkos go into free agency) ....... one thing is almost certain, Jake will not be signing with the Pens for next season.
 
Tampa Bay acquired the rights to Guentzel from Carolina for a 3rd Round pick ...... Guentzel can still become an UFA tomorrow, so to give up a 3rd Round pick, you would think TB may well have a general agreement with Jake (TB has cleared a lot of cap space with trades and saying they are letting Stamkos go into free agency) ....... one thing is almost certain, Jake will not be signing with the Pens for next season.
It seems like the further and further the Pens last cups are in the rear view mirror the more nostalgic some Pens fans get. I don't get that. Resigning Jake would have been horrible judgement.
 
It seems like the further and further the Pens last cups are in the rear view mirror the more nostalgic some Pens fans get. I don't get that. Resigning Jake would have been horrible judgement.
Absolutely ...... resigning Guentzel would be a terrible idea ...... they shouldn't sign older free agents to high priced, long term deals at this point ...... get draft picks, prospects, younger NHL players if possible ..... if you can make a reasonable deal (price and term wise) that helps the team now, ok but start looking to the future.
 
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Absolutely ...... resigning Guentzel would be a terrible idea ...... they shouldn't sign older free agents to high priced, long term deals at this point ...... get draft picks, prospects, younger NHL players if possible ..... if you can make a reasonable deal (price and term wise) that helps the team now, ok but start looking to the future.
One thing I think people underestimate is the sale of the team. Because Mario wanted to sell it at its highest, with all of the marquee players in hand, and Fenway wanted to buy it with the same, I really think that hamstrung whatever GM was in charge in making some "hard" decisions. In fact, I am guessing this is why Rutherford left, because he felt he couldn't make the moves he wanted to move the team forward. And it led to alot of bad contract signings not so much price and term, but giving most of these almost total veto power.

Just to give an example....when the Pens traded for Jason Zucker, originally they were trading Kessel to Minnesota for him. But Kessel nixed the trade and then it cost the Pens a @#1 pick and Calen Addison.
 
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In follow up to yesterdays discussion, Tampa Bay signed Jake Guentzel to a $9 million AAV/year x 7 years contract yesterday 6/30/24.
 
In follow up to yesterdays discussion, Tampa Bay signed Jake Guentzel to a $9 million AAV/year x 7 years contract yesterday 6/30/24.
Good player. I don't know how Tampa hasn't been effected by cap issues moreso than others because they have been good as long as the Penguins.

Tampa is paying $9.5 million per for awhile to Kucherov, Point and Vasilevskyy. $9 million now for Guentzel. Victor Hedman is in the last year of his $7.9 million deal and is likely a $10 million a year. McDonaugh, Cirelli and Hagel are all between $6.3 and $6.8 million per year. Tampa is one of the few teams ranked BEHIND the Pens for prospect rankings.
 

What ? This doesn't excite anyone ?​

Potential Penguins Lines​

Drew O’Connor–Sidney Crosby–Bryan Rust
Michael Bunting–Evgeni Malkin–Rickard Rakell
Anthony Beauvillier–Kevin Hayes–Valtteri Puustinen
Blake Lizotte–Lars Eller–Noel Acciari

Defense​

Ryan Graves–Kris Letang
Marcus Pettersson–Erik Karlsson
Matt Grzelcyk–Jack St. Ivany

 
Good player. I don't know how Tampa hasn't been effected by cap issues moreso than others because they have been good as long as the Penguins.

Tampa is paying $9.5 million per for awhile to Kucherov, Point and Vasilevskyy. $9 million now for Guentzel. Victor Hedman is in the last year of his $7.9 million deal and is likely a $10 million a year. McDonaugh, Cirelli and Hagel are all between $6.3 and $6.8 million per year. Tampa is one of the few teams ranked BEHIND the Pens for prospect rankings.
They've essentially loooholed their way around it using LTIR.
 
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