I don't know who said that, but it wasn't me.
I wonder if whomever it was who said that also thinks that you shouldn't pick a pitcher number one, because pitchers are, by far, the most likely players to suffer serious injuries?
OT: Pirates
- Thread starter TFBaum
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I don't know who said that, but it wasn't me.
I wonder if whomever it was who said that also thinks that you shouldn't pick a pitcher number one, because pitchers are, by far, the most likely players to suffer serious injuries?
He’s batting .222. He runs like a baby giraffe. He’s a bad backup catcher. That’s his ceiling. A bad backup who has no catcher in the minors.
Well batting average alone is certainly a stupid way to judge how good a catcher is, but...
Sean Murphy, Oak: .221
Martin Maldonado, Hou: .181
Victor Caritini, SD: .211
Yasmani Grandal, CWS: .190
Mike Zunino, TB: .203
William Contreras, Atl: .215
Austin Hedges, Cle: .155
Colorado is splitting their catching among
Dom Nunez, Col: .160
Elias Diaz (yeah, that one), Col: .197
Seattle is splitting their catching among
Tom Murphy, Sea: .192
Luis Torrens, Sea: .205
Those guys are all in the top 30 of at bats by catchers.
If you make a list of the top 30 catchers in baseball right now including everything that goes into the position, Jacob Stallings is on the list. He isn't in the top ten, but he probably isn't in the bottom ten either.
On point 3 - their are guys like Watson involved in the #1 discussion - as he is perceived by some to have maybe the highest upside. There's even rumors several teams have Frelick ranked near the top due to upside.
Otherwise - you wrote the post I was too lazy to write.
And like I said, if you take WAR into account, Stallings is in the middle 3rd, and almost exactly half way. That is not among "backup" catchers, but all catchers. So he is not a bad backup. He is a solid major league catcher. Just because his dad was a putz has nothing to do with him.
Let's be realistic here - if your a knowledgeable Bucs fan - you're going to games these days for Reynolds & Hays, and maybe our starting All-Star 2b if you're the sentimental type. That's it.
Winning, or having a barely competent #4 hitter with Moran injured, shouldn't really be part of decision IMO. The first half of 2022 will be the same, then things start getting interesting.
Winning, or having a barely competent #4 hitter with Moran injured, shouldn't really be part of decision IMO. The first half of 2022 will be the same, then things start getting interesting.
The dreaded "forearm tightness" has struck again.
2 of the top 5 guys in the system. Also 2 of the guys closest to the Show - and the only kid with the Superstar upside. It's incredibly hard being a Bucs fan ....
2 of the top 5 guys in the system. Also 2 of the guys closest to the Show - and the only kid with the Superstar upside. It's incredibly hard being a Bucs fan ....
I don’t think the Pirates can go wrong with Davis, Leiter or Mayer. I’ll be more interested to see what direction that Ben goes and the organizational Philosophy they take on. Couldn’t tell much after only five selections that were made last draft.
The organization needs pitching pitching pitching. I really hope they draft two or three high upside guys and focus on undersized lefties. I think they are some of the most undervalued types of players in the draft.
The organization needs pitching pitching pitching. I really hope they draft two or three high upside guys and focus on undersized lefties. I think they are some of the most undervalued types of players in the draft.
And you went to the game with the full knowledge that it was likely that Jacob Freaking Stallings would be in the lineup.
All this talk of trading Adam Frazier. Some with Reynolds. Can MLB force Nutting out?
The fans have seen this before. Rebuild, 2013,2014, and 2015 playoffs, then they did not get another 2-3 players in that time pd, and now back in the toilet. They will not invest, period. Only solution is not to go.
Hey, I was starting to ramp up my interest to see who the Pirates will select 1st overall in the upcoming draft.
Then I was reminded of who they selected the last 4 times they picked 1st overall…..Jeff King, Kris Benson, Bryan Bullington and Gerrit Cole. I guess you can say they batted 500 with those ‘1st overall’ picks, but overall pretty underwhelming.
And we think it’s bad when a disproportionate # of our few 4* FB recruits don’t live up to expectations.
Then I was reminded of who they selected the last 4 times they picked 1st overall…..Jeff King, Kris Benson, Bryan Bullington and Gerrit Cole. I guess you can say they batted 500 with those ‘1st overall’ picks, but overall pretty underwhelming.
And we think it’s bad when a disproportionate # of our few 4* FB recruits don’t live up to expectations.
That's interesting. Here are some names.
Adley Rutschsman
Casey Mize
Royce Lewis
Mickey Moniak
Dansby Swanson
Brady Aiken
Mark Appel
Who are those guys? #1 overall picks between 2013-19.
Did you know, only 3, THREE guys since the 1965 draft started, 3 #1 overall picks have made the HOF? Three! Out of 56. That is 5%. The Penguins alone will have their last 3 #1 overall picks be Hall of Famers.
The MLB draft is the biggest crapshoot. It is why you do not draft a guy just because you have a positional need. I couldn't believe when you look at the list of #1 overall picks, the lack of guys who made an impact, let alone became stars. This is not like any of the other sports. Where you can pretty much bank on the #1 overall, except in the rarest of circumstances, be a productive player, let alone a superstar.
You read the same article I did. Or the #1 pick to future HOFer is making the rounds in a lot of writeups.
I don’t know if stats back it up but I think drafting pitchers high if not #1 overall is the biggest crapshoot. On top of the risk or uncertainty of how any guy develops whether pitcher or position player, seems like pitcher’s arms are more susceptible to career-threatening injuries that make them even riskier.
One thing now, with these new analytics, with the pitch counts, you are going to have fewer and fewer starting pitchers make the HOF. They just won't have the numbers.
The baseball world now believes it preposterous a high school pitcher could go number one overall again. Simply too much risk. Things have really changed the last decade.
To be fair, the reason that "the baseball world" thinks that is that the number of high school pitchers who are high draft picks who end up injured is much, much higher than it is for any other type of player, including college pitchers.
And some of those guys are really highly thought of prospects. Rutschsman might be the highest rated catching prospect in baseball and barring injuries will be in the majors two years after getting drafted. Mize made the majors two years after he was drafted. Lewis is one of the highest rated prospects in baseball and was playing in AA two years ago as a 20 year old. And then he destroyed his knee. Moniak was in the majors at 22. Swanson was in the majors just over one year after getting drafted and is a pretty good player for the Braves. Appel, on the other hand, has already washed out of baseball and is now trying a comeback.
And then there is the one high school pitcher on that list, Brady Aiken. He's already had Tommy John surgery and I don't think is playing anywhere anymore.
Doesn't matter who the Pirates draft, he is gone first contract after his initial contract is complete, 3 to 5 years , rinse repeat, no pot at the end of the rainbow , it's all smoke and mirrors. I do agree with you all about the picks, nothing wrong with a high school player taking first if he is best prospect
It’s official, Henry Davis is the pick. If anyone recalls, is this the guy that they were going to select so that they could spend more later on?
A
anon_4dfwm2pijbr0a
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I think this is a good pick. I don't think they could have gone wrong with either Davis, Lawler, Mayer, Rocker or Leiter
Agreed. It also helps that they have very little catching depth in their farm system.
Yes, Mayer would have probably taken close to the full slot. Davis was regarded as the guy you could save on and then spread around later.
Watson had some late rumblings, too. He’d have been a pretty big haircut as well but probably not on the same tier as Mayer/Lawlar/Davis/Leiter.
I would have to imagine that they talked to all the potential number one picks about what it would take to sign them and that played a part in their decision. I expected that whichever guy they picked would sign for below slot, or they would have moved on to one of the other guys.
I don't know enough about the MLB draft process, but why wouldn't any player take as much as they could at each spot?
I just hope they didn’t overthink it. If Mayer was the best player, maybe they should have just taken him. The MLB draft is a crapshoot, and I’m afraid that they may not get any better players in the following rounds just because they have a little bit more money.
Maybe I’m wrong and Davis and Mayer are similar. Trying not to be negative because of the Pirates past, but I have this fear that Davis will end up as an average MLB catcher, and Mayer will end up being a superstar.
Maybe I’m wrong and Davis and Mayer are similar. Trying not to be negative because of the Pirates past, but I have this fear that Davis will end up as an average MLB catcher, and Mayer will end up being a superstar.
Well it's easy to illustrate with the number one pick. The slot value of the number one pick is $8.4 million. The slot value of number two is $7.8 million, number three is $7.2 million, and so on. If you are one of potentially five guys who could be picked number one you could fall into a slot of anywhere from $8.4 million to $6.2 million. Or, like Jordan Lawler you could fall to six ($5.7 million), or like Kumar Rocker you could fall to ten ($4.7 million). So the Pirates go to the top guy they are looking at and ask him what it will take to sign him. If he says the full $8.4 million then the Pirates move on to the next guy, and that guy isn't going to get $8.4 million, or even close to it, from anyone else.
So maybe they went to Davis and he said he'd take $7.4 million. That saves the Pirates $1 million to spend on someone else, and it also ensures Davis that he is going to probably get more money, maybe even a lot more money, than he will if he just lets the chips fall where they may.
Since they went to a slotting system there is only one overall number one pick who did not give the team that drafted him a discount on the full slot value. Because the proverbial dollar in the hand is worth two in the bush. If Davis' people think that he could fall as far as 5th, then any dollars they get him over the slot value for being taken fifth is more money than what he would likely get if he just lets it play out.
Love Jacob Stallings, worked his way into a solid major leaguer. Don't let his father cloud your hating him. Don't be a Dick. That being said, he is 31 and we have no other catchers in the system so I am glad with them selecting OH HENRY. Had a chance to watch him at ACC Louisville, did you?
They've never been higher than 20th under Nutting, and they've averaged about 27th out of 30 teams over the last 15 years. How many years are you going to give him a pass? 2 decades? 3 decades? More?
The pirates trade good players and get back worse players and the occasional guy that does well 3 years later. The problem is, they get a good player from the trade who develops and they’ll turn around and trade him. Rinse and repeat.
What’s the point? If you are never going to keep the good player to build around, none of this matters.
I am not giving him a pass. But saying they are taking a cheaper player to save money is just not true. They spend as much, if not more, than any franchise on the draft. And in fact, they are the primary reason for this new slot system because teams like the Red Sox and Yankees whined when the Pirates drafted Josh Bell in rd 2 and paid him like a top 10 pick to sign with them.
I just think much of these past issues was the previous management. Ownership needs to step up.....but management also needs to make the moves to allow him to step up.
I find it hard to believe that management would be responsible for not addressing depth, especially pitching depth, back in 2016. It seems implausible to me that management would say "we don't need to offer JA Happ a third year, we can make Jon Niese our 4th starter." The much more likely scenario is that ownership gave management a particular number to work with and the GM had to find pitching under that number. That's how you end up with Niese and his 4.91 ERA while Happ heads to Toronto, wins 20 games and is a Cy Young finalist.
My point all along with the Pirates is that anyone who is still in for the ride is just going to get burned again. The rebuild is irrelevant because Nutting will never provide access to the resources necessary to compete for a championship. Like an unfaithful spouse, after they get caught, they're going to say all the right things and make all the excuses they can but when the chips are down they ain't changing their ways. Don't wait until 2025 to learn something that should have been learned 6 years ago.
I’m with you on your sentiment herein. Your example with Happ/ Niese was pretty close to a final breaking point for me. Don’t know why it wasn’t the ‘final’ breaking point but since I still casually follow them, and read/post in Pirate threads herein, it obviously wasn’t.
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