Our NET is a real problem

[Sean Miller Fan]

Only moved up 3 to 68. Incredibly, our RPI is 44. Using 44, we would he pretty safely in if the field was announced today. Using NET, we really wouldn't be very close.

The NCAA never released their formula for NET which upset a lot of people. I suspect there reason for not releasing it was so coaches couldn't game it. I'd like to see someone reverse engineer it because some of these discrepancies are remarkable. For example, James Madison is 43 in NET but 108 in RPI. RPI isn't even factored in anymore so we all may be setting ourselves up for disappointment. Even if we go 9-7 to finish 13-7, it wouldn't seem like our NET would move up that much, perhaps not much higher than 60 especially considering we may well lose 1 to FSU/Lou/BC

 

[str61166]

Mentioned this in another thread but Wake went 13-7 in conference play last season and ended up as a 2 seed in the NIT. No ranked wins and a one and done to BC in the ACC tournament did them in.

Not trying to think about this all so early but can’t help but do so especially with how far removed we are from last making it in. Just hope they don’t get worn out down the stretch here and end up losing multiple games they suddenly shouldn’t be expected to.

Also I don’t know much about all these metrics for rankings but doesn’t seem like there’s been much movement in their KenPom either as I see they’re at 64.

 

[rockypanther]

Did they count last nights win in all these rankings?

 

[Ronnyp91]

Did they count last nights win in all these rankings?

Kenpom’s does yes.

 

[upj87]

Only moved up 3 to 68. Incredibly, our RPI is 44. Using 44, we would he pretty safely in if the field was announced today. Using NET, we really wouldn't be very close.

The NCAA never released their formula for NET which upset a lot of people. I suspect there reason for not releasing it was so coaches couldn't game it. I'd like to see someone reverse engineer it because some of these discrepancies are remarkable. For example, James Madison is 43 in NET but 108 in RPI. RPI isn't even factored in anymore so we all may be setting ourselves up for disappointment. Even if we go 9-7 to finish 13-7, it wouldn't seem like our NET would move up that much, perhaps not much higher than 60 especially considering we may well lose 1 to FSU/Lou/BC

blah, blah blah...go .500 the rest of the year and they are in with ease..

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Did they count last nights win in all these rankings?

Yes. NET doesn't seem to move much. Been tracking it for a few weeks. I dont really understand it. Nobody does.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Mentioned this in another thread but Wake went 13-7 in conference play last season and ended up as a 2 seed in the NIT. No ranked wins and a one and done to BC in the ACC tournament did them in.

Not trying to think about this all so early but can’t help but do so especially with how far removed we are from last making it in. Just hope they don’t get worn out down the stretch here and end up losing multiple games they suddenly shouldn’t be expected to.

Also I don’t know much about all these metrics for rankings but doesn’t seem like there’s been much movement in their KenPom either as I see they’re at 64.

Wake is THE example. I was trying to find out what their NET was and what their Quad 1 and Quad 2's were on Selection Sunday but I cannot. I can find their post-NCAA/NIT resume but that doesn't do a lot of good.

Anyone know the lowest-rated NET teams to make it since they started using it. If we go 9-7 the rest of the way, is it realistic to make it with a NET in the 60s or 70s?

 

[cabe23]

Mentioned this in another thread but Wake went 13-7 in conference play last season and ended up as a 2 seed in the NIT. No ranked wins and a one and done to BC in the ACC tournament did them in.

Not trying to think about this all so early but can’t help but do so especially with how far removed we are from last making it in. Just hope they don’t get worn out down the stretch here and end up losing multiple games they suddenly shouldn’t be expected to.

Also I don’t know much about all these metrics for rankings but doesn’t seem like there’s been much movement in their KenPom either as I see they’re at 64.

Well we have 2 ranked wins, so that helps. Carolina getting their crap together would help too.

 

[Pitt2006]

Pitt now has 4 quad 1 wins, which is 6th most nationally. They are 4-3 combined quad 1 and 2 and 3-1 on the road. 15-5 likely gets them in as they care about quality and road wins. Wake did themselves no favor by losing to BC in ACC tourney. Also seem to favor hot teams. Starting 1-3 may give them benefit in the end for the initial bad losses (I.e., they want teams playing hot).

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Pitt now has 4 quad 1 wins, which is 6th most nationally. They are 4-3 combined quad 1 and 2 and 3-1 on the road. 15-5 likely gets them in as they care about quality and road wins. Wake did themselves no favor by losing to BC in ACC tourney. Also seem to favor hot teams. Starting 1-3 may give them benefit in the end for the initial bad losses.

You think we need to go 15-5?

 

[Fsgolfdr]

If they continue to play like they are everything will take care of itself .

 

[Pitt2006]

I have no idea, but it could be feasible to go 15-5. I count duke, Miami, at Miami, one of vt/Syracuse, and at Unc, as losses. Another loss would be 14-6. If they can avoid the quad 4 losses, I would think they would be safe. BC was prolly a quad 4 last year…Conversely, they could win some of those for additional quad 1s and lose games they should be favored in. Really need to avoid losing to Lville, BC, and FSU.

 

[mike10003]

BTW, here is a link for the up to date statistics in a pretty well organized webpage. You can browse every team like this:

Pittsburgh Panthers NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2023 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for Pittsburgh Panthers 2023 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrants

www.warrennolan.com

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I have no idea, but it could be feasible to go 15-5. I count duke, Miami, at Miami, one of vt/Syracuse, and at Unc, as losses. Another loss would be 14-6. If they can avoid the quad 4 losses, I would think they would be safe. BC was prolly a quad 4 last year…Conversely, they could win some of those for additional quad 1s and lose games they should be favored in. Really need to avoid losing to Lville, BC, and FSU.

We're pulling games out by the skin of our teeth; it's hard for me to imagine it being sustainable to that degree.

But I do wonder what our ACC record would have to be to make the tournament. 25-10 (13-7) for Wake last season, in conjunction with us getting absolutely pasted by a WVU team that is 1-3 on the road and 0-2 in conference and an 8-5 Michigan team, definitely doesn't help. Perceptions of the ACC probably couldn't get much worse right now.

 

[Pitt2006]

Thanks to mike we now know! Wake had 3 quad 1 wins. https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/schedule/Wake-Forest

 

[mike10003]

Thanks to mike we now know! Wake had 3 quad 1 wins. https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/schedule/Wake-Forest

That has NCAA tournament games factored in tho, like Duke has a NET of 10 because their page has Arkansas/Texas Tech included. So that UNC Q1 win with a NET of 17 probably wasn't 17 at selection sunday, which is what SMF was looking for.

 

[Dointhatrag]

Yes only a three spot improvement.

(4-1) Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
(0-2) Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
(1-1) Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
(6-0) Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353


As of today here are our opponents NET rankings:

DATE	OPP	OPP	RESULT	NET on 1/4/23	Quad
7-Nov-22​	vs	UT Martin	W 80-58	246​	4​
11-Nov-22​	vs	West Virginia	L 81-56	17​	1​
16-Nov-22​	N	Michigan	L 91-60	81​	2​
17-Nov-22​	N	VCU	L 71-67	124​	3​
20-Nov-22​	vs	Alabama St.	W 73-54	340​	4​
22-Nov-22​	vs	FDU	W 83-61	309​	4​
25-Nov-22​	vs	William & Mary	W 80-64	291​	4​
28-Nov-22​	@	Northwestern	W 87-58	65​	1​
2-Dec-22​	@	NC State	W 68-60	64​	1​
7-Dec-22​	@	Vanderbilt	L 75-74	118​	2​
10-Dec-22​	vs	Sacred Heart	W 91-66	314​	4​
17-Dec-22​	vs	North Florida	W 82-56	269​	4​
20-Dec-22​	@	Syracuse	W 84-82	143​	3​
30-Dec-22​	vs	N. Carolina	W 76-74	29​	1​
3-Jan-23​	vs	Virginia	W 68-65	20​	1​
7-Jan-23​	vs	Clemson		75​	2​
11-Jan-23​	@	Duke		16​	1​
14-Jan-23​	@	Ga. Tech		149​	3​
18-Jan-23​	@	Louisville		348​	4​
21-Jan-23​	vs	Florida St.		244​	4​
25-Jan-23​	vs	Wake Forest		78​	2​
28-Jan-23​	vs	Miami		35​	1​
1-Feb-23​	@	N. Carolina		29​	1​
7-Feb-23​	vs	Louisville		348​	4​
11-Feb-23​	@	Florida St.		244​	4​
14-Feb-23​	vs	Boston College		212​	4​
18-Feb-23​	@	Va. Tech		37​	1​
21-Feb-23​	vs	Ga. Tech		149​	3​
25-Feb-23​	vs	Syracuse		143​	3​
1-Mar-23​	@	Notre Dame		174​	3​
4-Mar-23​	@	Miami		35​	1​

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

Only moved up 3 to 68. Incredibly, our RPI is 44. Using 44, we would he pretty safely in if the field was announced today. Using NET, we really wouldn't be very close.

The NCAA never released their formula for NET which upset a lot of people. I suspect there reason for not releasing it was so coaches couldn't game it. I'd like to see someone reverse engineer it because some of these discrepancies are remarkable. For example, James Madison is 43 in NET but 108 in RPI. RPI isn't even factored in anymore so we all may be setting ourselves up for disappointment. Even if we go 9-7 to finish 13-7, it wouldn't seem like our NET would move up that much, perhaps not much higher than 60 especially considering we may well lose 1 to FSU/Lou/BC

So NET is "net" effect. You don't think the committee what is happening later in the season versus the first month? Come on.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

BTW, here is a link for the up to date statistics in a pretty well organized webpage. You can browse every team like this:

Pittsburgh Panthers NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2023 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for Pittsburgh Panthers 2023 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrants

www.warrennolan.com

That's the best site. Louisville/FSU/BC is an absolute killer. They are 212, 244, and 343. 5 games vs them. If you do the predictor, they have us at 14-6 with an RPI of 93. So our RPI would actually drop FIFTY spots if we win 10 of the last 16. Now, RPI is not an NCAAT consideration but if it drops 50 spots by going 10-6 to finish, I cant imagine our NET will improve a great deal from 68. And what if we lose one of those games? Those teams arent as bad as their NETs but on paper, they are like MEAC or NEC teams.

I really thought we'd be in at 13-7 with an outside chance at 12-8. Now, we might only have an outside shot at 14-6 and may need to go 15-5. I'm wondering if teams like Pitt can work with the ACC to not play the Louisville games. They switched schedules on the fly before. Maybe we play NC State again instead of Lou?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

So NET is "net" effect. You don't think the committee what is happening later in the season versus the first month? Come on.

NET is the new RPI. Its a statistical tool.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

Only moved up 3 to 68. Incredibly, our RPI is 44. Using 44, we would he pretty safely in if the field was announced today. Using NET, we really wouldn't be very close.

The NCAA never released their formula for NET which upset a lot of people. I suspect there reason for not releasing it was so coaches couldn't game it. I'd like to see someone reverse engineer it because some of these discrepancies are remarkable. For example, James Madison is 43 in NET but 108 in RPI. RPI isn't even factored in anymore so we all may be setting ourselves up for disappointment. Even if we go 9-7 to finish 13-7, it wouldn't seem like our NET would move up that much, perhaps not much higher than 60 especially considering we may well lose 1 to FSU/Lou/BC

if we go 13-7 in the acc, which would give us 20 regular season wins, and we dont make the ncaa tourney, im punching every single person i see in the face for one week, including myself.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

if we go 13-7 in the acc, which would give us 20 regular season wins, and we dont make the ncaa tourney, im punching every single person i see in the face for one week, including myself.

Wake went 13-7 last year and didn't make it. I know people dont like it when I say this, but the ACC is pretty bad. Its NET ranking is 8 behind the Mountain West and WCC. If you just go by numbers, the ACC really isn't a "P6" quality league and may only get 25%-35% of its teams in which isnt very different from the MWC, AAC, WCC, etc.

 

[mas1021]

Just win baby

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Just win baby

This is a good problem to have. I forgot what its like to have "bubble anxiety."

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

Mentioned this in another thread but Wake went 13-7 in conference play last season and ended up as a 2 seed in the NIT. No ranked wins and a one and done to BC in the ACC tournament did them in.

Not trying to think about this all so early but can’t help but do so especially with how far removed we are from last making it in. Just hope they don’t get worn out down the stretch here and end up losing multiple games they suddenly shouldn’t be expected to.

Also I don’t know much about all these metrics for rankings but doesn’t seem like there’s been much movement in their KenPom either as I see they’re at 64.

Just need to keep winning and can’t worry about where we are now. Wake slumped right at the end and also lost first game of ACC tourney. If we can go 13-7 or 14-6 with no more bad losses, plus win one on ACC tourney, we should get in. It will be every bit about the eye test, especially if we keep winning and playing well.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Just need to keep winning and can’t worry about where we are now. Wake slumped right at the end and also lost first game of ACC tourney. If we can go 13-7 or 14-6 with no more bad losses, plus win one on ACC tourney, we should get in. It will be every bit about the eye test, especially if we keep winning and playing well.

14-6 JUST to get an at-large is an extremely tall order.

I would love someone to explain NET. We really dont have any bad losses and 4 quad 1 wins. Seems like we should be higher than James Madison

 

[whirlybird optio]

14-6 JUST to get an at-large is an extremely tall order.

I would love someone to explain NET. We really dont have any bad losses and 4 quad 1 wins. Seems like we should be higher than James Madison

The other thing that would help, perception wise, would be to be ranked. A top 25 team is not missing the tournament. If we beat Clemson on Saturday, we are going to be very, very close, probably in the middle of the others section.

I think 14-6, 1 win in ACCT will do it. ACC will get 5 or 6 teams. Other than Duke, UVA, Miami, and almost certainly UNC, other spot or 2 is open. Pitt/Wake/VT/Cuse/NC st probably fighting for 1, maybe 2.

 

[wbrpanther]

Only moved up 3 to 68. Incredibly, our RPI is 44. Using 44, we would he pretty safely in if the field was announced today. Using NET, we really wouldn't be very close.

The NCAA never released their formula for NET which upset a lot of people. I suspect there reason for not releasing it was so coaches couldn't game it. I'd like to see someone reverse engineer it because some of these discrepancies are remarkable. For example, James Madison is 43 in NET but 108 in RPI. RPI isn't even factored in anymore so we all may be setting ourselves up for disappointment. Even if we go 9-7 to finish 13-7, it wouldn't seem like our NET would move up that much, perhaps not much higher than 60 especially considering we may well lose 1 to FSU/Lou/BC

SMF, please, slow down. We are 4 games into our ACC schedule. Let’s wait at least till the end of January to see where we are at.

 

[Team_Pitt_Fan]

Keep winning won't matter

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The other thing that would help, perception wise, would be to be ranked. A top 25 team is not missing the tournament. If we beat Clemson on Saturday, we are going to be very, very close, probably in the middle of the others section.

I think 14-6, 1 win in ACCT will do it. ACC will get 5 or 6 teams. Other than Duke, UVA, Miami, and almost certainly UNC, other spot or 2 is open. Pitt/Wake/VT/Cuse/NC st probably fighting for 1, maybe 2.

I disagree about Top 25 meaning anything. I remember UNLV missing the tournament being ranked #25 right after Tark left. And we probably arent going to be ranked in the Top 25 at the end. We have to start losing eventually.

And yea, 14-6 and me, personally, think we're in but I dont want to have to go 14-6. 13-7 should be enough or really 12-8 with wins over UNC, UVa, @ NC St, and maybe we beat the Cane$ at home.

What may help is the fact we lost 3 games in the first week of the season. Lets say we go 20-11, 13-7, we'd be 19-8 without the 1st week. I realize the whole season counts but that could help slightly.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Can anyone find the Selection Sunday NET rankings for the last few years? Google isnt finding it for me

 

[Dointhatrag]

We really dont have any bad losses and 4 quad 1 wins. Seems like we should be higher than James Madison

We have two losses to teams below 117 and 6 of our 11 wins were against 246 or worse

 

[whirlybird optio]

I disagree about Top 25 meaning anything. I remember UNLV missing the tournament being ranked #25 right after Tark left. And we probably arent going to be ranked in the Top 25 at the end. We have to start losing eventually.

And yea, 14-6 and me, personally, think we're in but I dont want to have to go 14-6. 13-7 should be enough or really 12-8 with wins over UNC, UVa, @ NC St, and maybe we beat the Cane$ at home.

What may help is the fact we lost 3 games in the first week of the season. Lets say we go 20-11, 13-7, we'd be 19-8 without the 1st week. I realize the whole season counts but that could help slightly.

So that’s like 30 years? Again, I really don’t think a ranked ACC team isn’t going to be missing out.

Also, if Pitt just starts showing up on every bracket they sort of get in by consensus. And not if they are like a 12, but like an 8-9 seed. Which they might be if they go 14-6

 

[PittMan 72]

SMF, please, slow down. We are 4 games into our ACC schedule. Let’s wait at least till the end of January to see where we are at.

Gotta keep those blankets wet, wbr. 😉 😏

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

So that’s like 30 years? Again, I really don’t think a ranked ACC team isn’t going to be missing out.

Also, if Pitt just starts showing up on every bracket they sort of get in by consensus. And not if they are like a 12, but like an 8-9 seed. Which they might be if they go 14-6

Well, for Pitt to be rankes on Selection Sunday, they're probably going to have to be 14-6 or 15-5 which gets them in anyway.
They probably just barely crack the Top 25 at 5-0. So if we go 8-7 the rest of the way, basically alternating wins and losses, there's no way we stay there.

 

[PittGuy00]

Can anyone find the Selection Sunday NET rankings for the last few years? Google isnt finding it for me

Here it is for 2021 tournament

2021 NCAA Tournament Team Computer Rankings by Region | BracketResearch.com

bracketresearch.com

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Here it is for 2021 tournament

2021 NCAA Tournament Team Computer Rankings by Region | BracketResearch.com

bracketresearch.com

That doesn't tell me what Wake's NET was

 

[PittGuy00]

That doesn't tell me what Wake's NET was

NET was 48

Here are this year's 6 biggest NCAA men's tournament snubs

Three Big Ten bubble teams received lifelines from the committee; Texas A&M headlines the list of hard-luck teams who didn't hear their names called.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[FireballZ]

Yes only a three spot improvement.

(4-1) Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
(0-2) Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
(1-1) Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
(6-0) Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353


As of today here are our opponents NET rankings:

DATE	OPP	OPP	RESULT	NET on 1/4/23	Quad
7-Nov-22​	vs	UT Martin	W 80-58	246​	4​
11-Nov-22​	vs	West Virginia	L 81-56	17​	1​
16-Nov-22​	N	Michigan	L 91-60	81​	2​
17-Nov-22​	N	VCU	L 71-67	124​	3​
20-Nov-22​	vs	Alabama St.	W 73-54	340​	4​
22-Nov-22​	vs	FDU	W 83-61	309​	4​
25-Nov-22​	vs	William & Mary	W 80-64	291​	4​
28-Nov-22​	@	Northwestern	W 87-58	65​	1​
2-Dec-22​	@	NC State	W 68-60	64​	1​
7-Dec-22​	@	Vanderbilt	L 75-74	118​	2​
10-Dec-22​	vs	Sacred Heart	W 91-66	314​	4​
17-Dec-22​	vs	North Florida	W 82-56	269​	4​
20-Dec-22​	@	Syracuse	W 84-82	143​	3​
30-Dec-22​	vs	N. Carolina	W 76-74	29​	1​
3-Jan-23​	vs	Virginia	W 68-65	20​	1​
7-Jan-23​	vs	Clemson		75​	2​
11-Jan-23​	@	Duke		16​	1​
14-Jan-23​	@	Ga. Tech		149​	3​
18-Jan-23​	@	Louisville		348​	4​
21-Jan-23​	vs	Florida St.		244​	4​
25-Jan-23​	vs	Wake Forest		78​	2​
28-Jan-23​	vs	Miami		35​	1​
1-Feb-23​	@	N. Carolina		29​	1​
7-Feb-23​	vs	Louisville		348​	4​
11-Feb-23​	@	Florida St.		244​	4​
14-Feb-23​	vs	Boston College		212​	4​
18-Feb-23​	@	Va. Tech		37​	1​
21-Feb-23​	vs	Ga. Tech		149​	3​
25-Feb-23​	vs	Syracuse		143​	3​
1-Mar-23​	@	Notre Dame		174​	3​
4-Mar-23​	@	Miami		35​	1​

VCU probably ends up a Quad 2 loss, as the A10 doesn't seem to be that great this year. They should finish top 4 there.

Vandy could end up a Quad 3 loss. He really just need them to get health.

@ CUSE probably ends up a Quad 2 win too.

I made a bet with a buddy after Pitt beat UNC that UNC ends up ranked in the top 15 by year's end. I put up $20 to win $50. I personally think they can get hot against ACC talent and real off a streak. They will get the padded benefit because of the logo on the front. I think that win will look better and better approaching March.

 

[whirlybird optio]

NET was 48

Here are this year's 6 biggest NCAA men's tournament snubs

Three Big Ten bubble teams received lifelines from the committee; Texas A&M headlines the list of hard-luck teams who didn't hear their names called.

sports.yahoo.com

And Wichita and Michigan St got in with NET in the 70s