Peaks and valleys, or death spiral?

[JS School]

In careers, and in life, there are always going to be peaks and valleys. Any reasonable person recognizes that. People seldom go into a death spiral (as I have seen Pitt's basketball program described on here) unless maybe they have a substance abuse problem or mental breakdown. To this point, Dixon's peaks have been two #1 seeds and an Elite Eight, and his valleys have been a CBI championship and a first round NIT exit. While the valleys are more recent than the peaks, that hardly seems like a death spiral. Particularly with two NCAA appearances in between, a first round loss to a Final Four team and a second round loss to the overall #1 seed. While the last few years are certainly nothing a top 30 program would brag about, I don't see a straight descent into the bottom of the ACC. You can claim that it's going to happen all you want, but until it actually happens I'll have a hard time believing it. Coaches that go to Super Bowls or conference championships often have 9-7 seasons in future years. I can't think of any that have eventually become 4-12 coaches for the rest of their careers.

I'm not sure how quickly or to what extent you think a coach can pull out of a valley. Dixon's best players are usually in the program for four years. Sometimes your best players turn out to be a little disappointing, but what are you going to do about it. Sorry James, you are a fine PG but your shooting is not as good as we were hoping for, so we are trading you to Syracuse. It's not the NBA, you can't turn a roster over that fast. You can get rid of the duds, but you pretty much have to live with your core players for four years.

You can say that Dixon recruited these guys. That's true, but nobody ever knows how a player is going to turn out. Pro teams spend a lot of money on psychological testing before drafting someone. Most college coaches are just trying to find guys that can play. I doubt anyone had this scouting report on Young: very good player, but may be prone to making mistakes like not boxing out little guards in close road games against top teams. Or this on Artis: has a lot of talent offensively, but prone to going 0 for 30 in crucial late season games.

I have no idea how a team with a core of Wilson, Kithcart and Manigault is going to be. Neither do you. Neither does Dixon. But until it is actually shown that the program is a death spiral rather than a disappointing valley, I'm fine with him as the coach.

Two other comments: 1) You either want Dixon gone or you don't. I'm tired of the don't want him fired but would like to see him leave, or don't fire him now but in two years...... arguments. The wheels would really have to come off in the next two years for me. If you truly want to be rid of him, do it now. They probably aren't going to be vastly different in two years. A little bit of improvement isn't going to be enough for some of you. 2) I can't understand ridiculing anyone now who was happy after the Duke win. It's actually possible to be happy after wins and unhappy after losses. I guess downplaying the Duke game right now just suits some agendas.

 

[pierre93]

In careers, and in life, there are always going to be peaks and valleys. Any reasonable person recognizes that. People seldom go into a death spiral (as I have seen Pitt's basketball program described on here) unless maybe they have a substance abuse problem or mental breakdown. To this point, Dixon's peaks have been two #1 seeds and an Elite Eight, and his valleys have been a CBI championship and a first round NIT exit. While the valleys are more recent than the peaks, that hardly seems like a death spiral. Particularly with two NCAA appearances in between, a first round loss to a Final Four team and a second round loss to the overall #1 seed. While the last few years are certainly nothing a top 30 program would brag about, I don't see a straight descent into the bottom of the ACC. You can claim that it's going to happen all you want, but until it actually happens I'll have a hard time believing it. Coaches that go to Super Bowls or conference championships often have 9-7 seasons in future years. I can't think of any that have eventually become 4-12 coaches for the rest of their careers.

I'm not sure how quickly or to what extent you think a coach can pull out of a valley. Dixon's best players are usually in the program for four years. Sometimes your best players turn out to be a little disappointing, but what are you going to do about it. Sorry James, you are a fine PG but your shooting is not as good as we were hoping for, so we are trading you to Syracuse. It's not the NBA, you can't turn a roster over that fast. You can get rid of the duds, but you pretty much have to live with your core players for four years.

You can say that Dixon recruited these guys. That's true, but nobody ever knows how a player is going to turn out. Pro teams spend a lot of money on psychological testing before drafting someone. Most college coaches are just trying to find guys that can play. I doubt anyone had this scouting report on Young: very good player, but may be prone to making mistakes like not boxing out little guards in close road games against top teams. Or this on Artis: has a lot of talent offensively, but prone to going 0 for 30 in crucial late season games.

I have no idea how a team with a core of Wilson, Kithcart and Manigault is going to be. Neither do you. Neither does Dixon. But until it is actually shown that the program is a death spiral rather than a disappointing valley, I'm fine with him as the coach.

Two other comments: 1) You either want Dixon gone or you don't. I'm tired of the don't want him fired but would like to see him leave, or don't fire him now but in two years...... arguments. The wheels would really have to come off in the next two years for me. If you truly want to be rid of him, do it now. They probably aren't going to be vastly different in two years. A little bit of improvement isn't going to be enough for some of you. 2) I can't understand ridiculing anyone now who was happy after the Duke win. It's actually possible to be happy after wins and unhappy after losses. I guess downplaying the Duke game right now just suits some agendas.

Great post, hits the nails on the head.

 

[PittPoker]

So if it's not going to be really any different in 2 years as you claim, you are happy with keeping Dixon and the status quo of recruiting dropping off and 10th place in the ACC?

See I am not.

 

[Delpanther]

First, unless JD goes of his own volition, he's not going anywhere which is the situation which implels discussions of a whole range of other scenarios.

Second, JD is too good of a coach for the program to go into a death spiral. That's not the issue or the likely scenario to occur here. What is really feared here is Pitt devolving into a constant state of mediocrity for one reason- lack of recruiting success.

The one serious flaw in your post is the suggestion that a coach has to wait 4 years to determine a player's potential or ceiling. Good coaches are also astute judges of talent and it has been obvious to everyone for 2 years what the PG's deficiencies are and for that matter the deficiencies of Chris Jines and a few other players. Successful coaches regularly recruit over players when they understand the limitations of players on their roster. In this regard, JD has quite frankly failed. We haven't had a SG in years or a PF for that matter.

The future is foggy and it comes down to poor recruiting. Not a happy time for Pitt hoops fans looking for certainty of success, as opposed to mediocrity, down the road. Add to that, Dixon's contract exacerbates the situation by limiting Pitt's latitude to make a change. This makes for even more fan frustration.

 

[ricflair4LIFE]

In careers, and in life, there are always going to be peaks and valleys. Any reasonable person recognizes that. People seldom go into a death spiral (as I have seen Pitt's basketball program described on here) unless maybe they have a substance abuse problem or mental breakdown. To this point, Dixon's peaks have been two #1 seeds and an Elite Eight, and his valleys have been a CBI championship and a first round NIT exit. While the valleys are more recent than the peaks, that hardly seems like a death spiral. Particularly with two NCAA appearances in between, a first round loss to a Final Four team and a second round loss to the overall #1 seed. While the last few years are certainly nothing a top 30 program would brag about, I don't see a straight descent into the bottom of the ACC. You can claim that it's going to happen all you want, but until it actually happens I'll have a hard time believing it. Coaches that go to Super Bowls or conference championships often have 9-7 seasons in future years. I can't think of any that have eventually become 4-12 coaches for the rest of their careers.

I'm not sure how quickly or to what extent you think a coach can pull out of a valley. Dixon's best players are usually in the program for four years. Sometimes your best players turn out to be a little disappointing, but what are you going to do about it. Sorry James, you are a fine PG but your shooting is not as good as we were hoping for, so we are trading you to Syracuse. It's not the NBA, you can't turn a roster over that fast. You can get rid of the duds, but you pretty much have to live with your core players for four years.

You can say that Dixon recruited these guys. That's true, but nobody ever knows how a player is going to turn out. Pro teams spend a lot of money on psychological testing before drafting someone. Most college coaches are just trying to find guys that can play. I doubt anyone had this scouting report on Young: very good player, but may be prone to making mistakes like not boxing out little guards in close road games against top teams. Or this on Artis: has a lot of talent offensively, but prone to going 0 for 30 in crucial late season games.

I have no idea how a team with a core of Wilson, Kithcart and Manigault is going to be. Neither do you. Neither does Dixon. But until it is actually shown that the program is a death spiral rather than a disappointing valley, I'm fine with him as the coach.

Two other comments: 1) You either want Dixon gone or you don't. I'm tired of the don't want him fired but would like to see him leave, or don't fire him now but in two years...... arguments. The wheels would really have to come off in the next two years for me. If you truly want to be rid of him, do it now. They probably aren't going to be vastly different in two years. A little bit of improvement isn't going to be enough for some of you. 2) I can't understand ridiculing anyone now who was happy after the Duke win. It's actually possible to be happy after wins and unhappy after losses. I guess downplaying the Duke game right now just suits some agendas.

Well said JS.

 

[JS School]

First, unless JD goes of his own volition, he's not going anywhere which is the situation which implels discussions of a whole range of other scenarios.

Second, JD is too good of a coach for the program to go into a death spiral. That's not the issue or the likely scenario to occur here. What is really feared here is Pitt devolving into a constant state of mediocrity for one reason- lack of recruiting success.

The one serious flaw in your post is the suggestion that a coach has to wait 4 years to determine a player's potential or ceiling. Good coaches are also astute judges of talent and it has been obvious to everyone for 2 years what the PG's deficiencies are and for that matter the deficiencies of Chris Jines and a few other players. Successful coaches regularly recruit over players when they understand the limitations of players on their roster. In this regard, JD has quite frankly failed. We haven't had a SG in years or a PF for that matter.

The future is foggy and it comes down to poor recruiting. Not a happy time for Pitt hoops fans looking for certainty of success, as opposed to mediocrity, down the road. Add to that, Dixon's contract exacerbates the situation by limiting Pitt's latitude to make a change. This makes for even more fan frustration.

I'm sure Dixon knew Robinson's, Young's and Artis' deficiencies long before any of us. But when you have a desperate need for SG and C, how are you going to recruit over those guys? They didn't turn out to be Fields, Blair and S. Young, but you have to live with it.

I agree the program will not go into a death spiral, as others have claimed. The issue is getting out of the current valley. Do you stick with Dixon or not? I think the odds of succeeding are better sticking with him. Some people do not, and use the death spiral argument as an excuse to fire him.

 

[JS School]

So if it's not going to be really any different in 2 years as you claim, you are happy with keeping Dixon and the status quo of recruiting dropping off and 10th place in the ACC?

See I am not.

I am not happy with the status quo either. The question is, do you keep Dixon and have him gradually work his way out of it, or do you scrap everything and start over with a new guy?

I prefer the Dan Rooney approach. Some of you prefer the Dan Snyder method.

 

[PITTLAW]

In careers, and in life, there are always going to be peaks and valleys. Any reasonable person recognizes that. People seldom go into a death spiral (as I have seen Pitt's basketball program described on here) unless maybe they have a substance abuse problem or mental breakdown. To this point, Dixon's peaks have been two #1 seeds and an Elite Eight, and his valleys have been a CBI championship and a first round NIT exit. While the valleys are more recent than the peaks, that hardly seems like a death spiral. Particularly with two NCAA appearances in between, a first round loss to a Final Four team and a second round loss to the overall #1 seed. While the last few years are certainly nothing a top 30 program would brag about, I don't see a straight descent into the bottom of the ACC. You can claim that it's going to happen all you want, but until it actually happens I'll have a hard time believing it. Coaches that go to Super Bowls or conference championships often have 9-7 seasons in future years. I can't think of any that have eventually become 4-12 coaches for the rest of their careers.

I'm not sure how quickly or to what extent you think a coach can pull out of a valley. Dixon's best players are usually in the program for four years. Sometimes your best players turn out to be a little disappointing, but what are you going to do about it. Sorry James, you are a fine PG but your shooting is not as good as we were hoping for, so we are trading you to Syracuse. It's not the NBA, you can't turn a roster over that fast. You can get rid of the duds, but you pretty much have to live with your core players for four years.

You can say that Dixon recruited these guys. That's true, but nobody ever knows how a player is going to turn out. Pro teams spend a lot of money on psychological testing before drafting someone. Most college coaches are just trying to find guys that can play. I doubt anyone had this scouting report on Young: very good player, but may be prone to making mistakes like not boxing out little guards in close road games against top teams. Or this on Artis: has a lot of talent offensively, but prone to going 0 for 30 in crucial late season games.

I have no idea how a team with a core of Wilson, Kithcart and Manigault is going to be. Neither do you. Neither does Dixon. But until it is actually shown that the program is a death spiral rather than a disappointing valley, I'm fine with him as the coach.

Two other comments: 1) You either want Dixon gone or you don't. I'm tired of the don't want him fired but would like to see him leave, or don't fire him now but in two years...... arguments. The wheels would really have to come off in the next two years for me. If you truly want to be rid of him, do it now. They probably aren't going to be vastly different in two years. A little bit of improvement isn't going to be enough for some of you. 2) I can't understand ridiculing anyone now who was happy after the Duke win. It's actually possible to be happy after wins and unhappy after losses. I guess downplaying the Duke game right now just suits some agendas.

I like Jamie, as well as support Jamie. However, to attempt to make excuses for his recruits or recruiting efforts is absurd. Coaches routinely get fired in college and the pros for poor drafting, poor talent evaluation, or failing to develop players, etc. Jamie really has his work cut out for him if he has any hopes of getting the program back to where he had it a few years ago. Jamie's history suggests he will get the team back there...but the past several year trend is certainly NOT favorable. Hail to Pitt!

 

[PITTLAW]

I'm sure Dixon knew Robinson's, Young's and Artis' deficiencies long before any of us. But when you have a desperate need for SG and C, how are you going to recruit over those guys? They didn't turn out to be Fields, Blair and S. Young, but you have to live with it.

I agree the program will not go into a death spiral, as others have claimed. The issue is getting out of the current valley. Do you stick with Dixon or not? I think the odds of succeeding are better sticking with him. Some people do not, and use the death spiral argument as an excuse to fire him.

Pitt will stick with Dixon, as it makes economic sense. Considering this is a program that is not in the black with cash, buying out a contract through 2023 simply is not in the cards for Pitt--whether you like Dixon or not, he will be here for quite a few more years. Hail to Pitt!

 

[Delpanther]

I'm sure Dixon knew Robinson's, Young's and Artis' deficiencies long before any of us. But when you have a desperate need for SG and C, how are you going to recruit over those guys? They didn't turn out to be Fields, Blair and S. Young, but you have to live with it.

I agree the program will not go into a death spiral, as others have claimed. The issue is getting out of the current valley. Do you stick with Dixon or not? I think the odds of succeeding are better sticking with him. Some people do not, and use the death spiral argument as an excuse to fire him.

The problem on the recruiting front is that we have pretty much whiffed across the board. If we have a 2 who can shoot a jump shot then Robinson's shortcomings aren't as acute a problem. If we have a C then Young's aversion to contact inside is less of a problem. If we have a back up PG, then we don't have to try to force Artis to be a point forward and his propensity to make the dumb pass isn't as pronounced. We should have had a serviceable PG in place by Robinson's junior year. We haven't had a true shooting guard in 8 years or so- it's ridiculous! I'm not letting Dixon off the hook on the recruiting front-he's been below average.

I don't think we have a choice as regards sticking with JD for another 2-3 years. His contract completely handcuffs Pitt. Unless his recruiting improves, I can see 2 or 3 more years just like this year, flirting with relevance and irrelevance- in a word mediocrity. The ball's in JD's court. Can he accept changing his approach? Will he resent others gently or not so gently telling him changes are in order? Will he stay at Pitt in the face of criticism that he and the program have slipped? These are the issues which I think wil determine how long Dixon's at Pitt.

 

[JS School]

Recently someone compared Dixon's record to Huggins'. Valid points were made by both Dixon's detractors and supporters. Huggins has had losing seasons, but kept his job and was able to bounce back vs Huggins has been to two Final Fours, so he gets the benefit of the doubt.

Two Final Fours obviously trumps two #1 seeds, but I don't see such a difference in their records that I could draw a line in the sand between them and say that one deserves a chance to revive his program and the other one does not. I think the biggest difference in the way they are perceived is that Dixon is our coach and Huggins is not. Frustration with recent seasons is affecting our view of Dixon. Huggins is looked at more objectively.

Huggins has had a longer career, I think his first FF was in '92. Dixon deserves some time. I don't know if he gets to a Final Four, but I'd be surprised if he has any losing seasons.

 

[Delpanther]

Recently someone compared Dixon's record to Huggins'. Valid points were made by both Dixon's detractors and supporters. Huggins has had losing seasons, but kept his job and was able to bounce back vs Huggins has been to two Final Fours, so he gets the benefit of the doubt.

Two Final Fours obviously trumps two #1 seeds, but I don't see such a difference in their records that I could draw a line in the sand between them and say that one deserves a chance to revive his program and the other one does not. I think the biggest difference in the way they are perceived is that Dixon is our coach and Huggins is not. Frustration with recent seasons is affecting our view of Dixon. Huggins is looked at more objectively.

Huggins has had a longer career, I think his first FF was in '92. Dixon deserves some time. I don't know if he gets to a Final Four, but I'd be surprised if he has any losing seasons.

I believe that Huggins is a better recruiter than JD which allowed him to bounce back from a couple of down seasons. Huggins recruited well at Cinci too and has a knack for finding talent off the beaten path in places Pitt never ventures.

 

[JS School]

I believe that Huggins is a better recruiter than JD which allowed him to bounce back from a couple of down seasons. Huggins recruited well at Cinci too and has a knack for finding talent off the beaten path in places Pitt never ventures.

Yeah, well Tyrone Haughton and Shaq Doorson were found pretty far off the beaten path, so......

Seriously though, for both I think it's a matter of getting guys that respond to them and are willing to play hard for them. Huggins has that right now.

I once saw Huggins at O'Hare Airport. I was about to tell him that I was a Pitt fan, but I liked him as a coach. Then he started slamming his carry-on bag down because he didn't like his seat assignment or something. I guess I'm not the kind of guy that would respond to him.

 

[BuffetParrothead]

First, unless JD goes of his own volition, he's not going anywhere which is the situation which implels discussions of a whole range of other scenarios.

Second, JD is too good of a coach for the program to go into a death spiral. That's not the issue or the likely scenario to occur here. What is really feared here is Pitt devolving into a constant state of mediocrity for one reason- lack of recruiting success.

The one serious flaw in your post is the suggestion that a coach has to wait 4 years to determine a player's potential or ceiling. Good coaches are also astute judges of talent and it has been obvious to everyone for 2 years what the PG's deficiencies are and for that matter the deficiencies of Chris Jines and a few other players. Successful coaches regularly recruit over players when they understand the limitations of players on their roster. In this regard, JD has quite frankly failed. We haven't had a SG in years or a PF for that matter.

The future is foggy and it comes down to poor recruiting. Not a happy time for Pitt hoops fans looking for certainty of success, as opposed to mediocrity, down the road. Add to that, Dixon's contract exacerbates the situation by limiting Pitt's latitude to make a change. This makes for even more fan frustration.

A lot of teams that we compete against have players for one or two years after which time that same player will probably have a complicated tax return due to NBA money.
We at PITT have a lot of players for four years and as the years move along I hear posters say we're still a young team wait until next year the players will improve?
We wait a year or years and experience similar results.
It seems like a lot of our players peak at a low level in year two???

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

For a program like Pitt, stagnation is not treading water, it is falling behind. A lot of people love to point out our lack of history and tradition and why we should not feel compelled to compete at a high level. Well this also effects mediocrity, because we start that slide backwards, like a Ga Tech, like a Wake, like heavens forbid, a Boston College.

There is a cautionary tale here. I am sure fans of those schools thought they could do better with Al Skinner or Paul Hewitt, but they also found out that it isn't so easy. OK State is finding out that a new coach doesn't always help as now they are looking for another. Look at UsheLA, right now Ben Howland looks good. It is a risky move to fire a coach.

That being said, you can't be paralyzed by fear. I do think Jamie should get another year. But if the recruiting doesn't improve and it is another middling season, then you really need to look at the program and decide what you want it to be. And if you go firing Jamie, you FIRST have a pretty damn good idea on who your replacement is going to be.

 

[cruzer]

In careers, and in life, there are always going to be peaks and valleys. Any reasonable person recognizes that. People seldom go into a death spiral (as I have seen Pitt's basketball program described on here) unless maybe they have a substance abuse problem or mental breakdown. To this point, Dixon's peaks have been two #1 seeds and an Elite Eight, and his valleys have been a CBI championship and a first round NIT exit. While the valleys are more recent than the peaks, that hardly seems like a death spiral. Particularly with two NCAA appearances in between, a first round loss to a Final Four team and a second round loss to the overall #1 seed. While the last few years are certainly nothing a top 30 program would brag about, I don't see a straight descent into the bottom of the ACC. You can claim that it's going to happen all you want, but until it actually happens I'll have a hard time believing it. Coaches that go to Super Bowls or conference championships often have 9-7 seasons in future years. I can't think of any that have eventually become 4-12 coaches for the rest of their careers.

I'm not sure how quickly or to what extent you think a coach can pull out of a valley. Dixon's best players are usually in the program for four years. Sometimes your best players turn out to be a little disappointing, but what are you going to do about it. Sorry James, you are a fine PG but your shooting is not as good as we were hoping for, so we are trading you to Syracuse. It's not the NBA, you can't turn a roster over that fast. You can get rid of the duds, but you pretty much have to live with your core players for four years.

You can say that Dixon recruited these guys. That's true, but nobody ever knows how a player is going to turn out. Pro teams spend a lot of money on psychological testing before drafting someone. Most college coaches are just trying to find guys that can play. I doubt anyone had this scouting report on Young: very good player, but may be prone to making mistakes like not boxing out little guards in close road games against top teams. Or this on Artis: has a lot of talent offensively, but prone to going 0 for 30 in crucial late season games.

I have no idea how a team with a core of Wilson, Kithcart and Manigault is going to be. Neither do you. Neither does Dixon. But until it is actually shown that the program is a death spiral rather than a disappointing valley, I'm fine with him as the coach.

Two other comments: 1) You either want Dixon gone or you don't. I'm tired of the don't want him fired but would like to see him leave, or don't fire him now but in two years...... arguments. The wheels would really have to come off in the next two years for me. If you truly want to be rid of him, do it now. They probably aren't going to be vastly different in two years. A little bit of improvement isn't going to be enough for some of you. 2) I can't understand ridiculing anyone now who was happy after the Duke win. It's actually possible to be happy after wins and unhappy after losses. I guess downplaying the Duke game right now just suits some agendas.

Funny thing about death spirals is that it's hard to know when you've started into the death spiral vs. a 1 or 2 year blip. The worst part is that once it's clear you're in a death spiral, it's generally too late to correct.

For the record, I don't think we're in death spiral mode, but we are mostly certainly in gradual decay over the past few years.

Cruzer