Tom Fornelli, CBS Sports
"I simply look at how quarterbacks have performed over their college careers in three key situations: against the top defenses in college football (the top 50 using S&P ratings via Football Outsiders), in third-and-long situations, and in the red zone. The first one is self-explanatory. While college defenses aren't as good as NFL defenses, you can still learn more about a quarterback against the better ones than you will against some team giving up 40 points per game.
As for third-and-long and the red zone, I chose these because they are situations that more closely mimic the kind of defense a QB would see on the NFL level. On third-and-long, a defense knows you're probably passing and is more likely to bring pressure. In the red zone, you have a lot less room to work with, which mimics the smaller windows a QB will have to throw into on the NFL level."
"While there's no set guideline to go by, generally speaking, if a quarterback doesn't score at least a 960.000 in this formula, you should be hesitant using a first round pick on him. As you can see, only two quarterbacks in this class meet that threshold, and Mahomes gets there by the skin of his teeth."
Rank
Quarterback School Fornelli Rating 2016 Passing Stats
1 Mitch Trubisky North Carolina 983.755 3,748 yards, 30 TD, 6 INT
2 Pat Mahomes Texas Tech 960.664 5,052 yards, 41 TD, 10 INT
3 Cooper Rush Central Michigan 951.433 3,540 yards, 23 TD, 16 INT
4 Nathan Peterman Pittsburgh 946.237 2,855 yards, 27 TD, 7 INT
5 Chad Kelly Ole Miss 938.078 2,758 yards, 19 TD, 8 INT
6 Deshaun Watson Clemson 934.986 4,593 yards, 41 TD, 17 INT
7 Seth Russell Baylor 928.030 2,126 yards, 20 TD, 8 INT
8 Jerod Evans Virginia Tech 924.985 3,552 yards, 29 TD, 8 INT
9 Sefo Liufau Colorado 914.523 2,366 yards, 11 TD, 6 INT
10 Davis Webb California 909.509 4,295 yards, 37 TD, 12 INT
11 Gunner Kiel Cincinnati 906.790 804 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT
12 Nick Mullens Southern Miss 901.312 3,272 yards, 24 TD, 11 INT
13 DeShone Kizer Notre Dame 899.462 2,925 yards, 26 TD, 9 INT
14 Trevor Knight Texas A&M 884.775 2,432 yards, 19 TD, 7 INT
15 Joshua Dobbs Tennessee 879.598 2,946 yards, 27 TD, 12 INT
16 Wes Lunt Illinois 874.498 1,376 yards, 8 TD, 3 INT
17 Mitch Leidner Minnesota 871.778 2,169 yards, 8 TD, 12 INT
18 C.J. Beathard Iowa 868.706 1,929 yards, 17 TD, 10 INT
19 Brad Kaaya Miami 866.657 3,532 yards, 27 TD, 7 INT
20 Zach Terrell Western Michigan 853.481 3,533 yards, 33 TD, 4 INT
Nathan's high score doesn't surprise me, but Brad Kaaya's next to last finish does. Nathan also scored higher on this list than Joshua Dobbs. Humm...
Also, Gunner Kiel scoring higher than DeShone Kizer is interesting. Although, I assumed that Gunner Kiel had long ago left the college ranks.
http://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...he-top-20-quarterbacks-in-the-2017-nfl-draft/
"I simply look at how quarterbacks have performed over their college careers in three key situations: against the top defenses in college football (the top 50 using S&P ratings via Football Outsiders), in third-and-long situations, and in the red zone. The first one is self-explanatory. While college defenses aren't as good as NFL defenses, you can still learn more about a quarterback against the better ones than you will against some team giving up 40 points per game.
As for third-and-long and the red zone, I chose these because they are situations that more closely mimic the kind of defense a QB would see on the NFL level. On third-and-long, a defense knows you're probably passing and is more likely to bring pressure. In the red zone, you have a lot less room to work with, which mimics the smaller windows a QB will have to throw into on the NFL level."
"While there's no set guideline to go by, generally speaking, if a quarterback doesn't score at least a 960.000 in this formula, you should be hesitant using a first round pick on him. As you can see, only two quarterbacks in this class meet that threshold, and Mahomes gets there by the skin of his teeth."
Rank
Quarterback School Fornelli Rating 2016 Passing Stats
1 Mitch Trubisky North Carolina 983.755 3,748 yards, 30 TD, 6 INT
2 Pat Mahomes Texas Tech 960.664 5,052 yards, 41 TD, 10 INT
3 Cooper Rush Central Michigan 951.433 3,540 yards, 23 TD, 16 INT
4 Nathan Peterman Pittsburgh 946.237 2,855 yards, 27 TD, 7 INT
5 Chad Kelly Ole Miss 938.078 2,758 yards, 19 TD, 8 INT
6 Deshaun Watson Clemson 934.986 4,593 yards, 41 TD, 17 INT
7 Seth Russell Baylor 928.030 2,126 yards, 20 TD, 8 INT
8 Jerod Evans Virginia Tech 924.985 3,552 yards, 29 TD, 8 INT
9 Sefo Liufau Colorado 914.523 2,366 yards, 11 TD, 6 INT
10 Davis Webb California 909.509 4,295 yards, 37 TD, 12 INT
11 Gunner Kiel Cincinnati 906.790 804 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT
12 Nick Mullens Southern Miss 901.312 3,272 yards, 24 TD, 11 INT
13 DeShone Kizer Notre Dame 899.462 2,925 yards, 26 TD, 9 INT
14 Trevor Knight Texas A&M 884.775 2,432 yards, 19 TD, 7 INT
15 Joshua Dobbs Tennessee 879.598 2,946 yards, 27 TD, 12 INT
16 Wes Lunt Illinois 874.498 1,376 yards, 8 TD, 3 INT
17 Mitch Leidner Minnesota 871.778 2,169 yards, 8 TD, 12 INT
18 C.J. Beathard Iowa 868.706 1,929 yards, 17 TD, 10 INT
19 Brad Kaaya Miami 866.657 3,532 yards, 27 TD, 7 INT
20 Zach Terrell Western Michigan 853.481 3,533 yards, 33 TD, 4 INT
Nathan's high score doesn't surprise me, but Brad Kaaya's next to last finish does. Nathan also scored higher on this list than Joshua Dobbs. Humm...
Also, Gunner Kiel scoring higher than DeShone Kizer is interesting. Although, I assumed that Gunner Kiel had long ago left the college ranks.
http://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...he-top-20-quarterbacks-in-the-2017-nfl-draft/
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