I read so many posts analyzing all aspects of the Pitt team in order to get to a Win. However the game outcome really comes down to turnover margin. It’s amazing how often it plays out that way. We get worked up about why a running play was called on 3rd and 5 when that doesn’t even matter unless it’s a fumble. We get fired up if a team completes a long TD pass when Pitt’s CBs are on an island. However that TD pass rarely matters if Pitt wins the TO battle.
Pitt has been great over the last 2.5 seasons at winning the turnover battle. Over the last 32 games Pitt has had the turnover advantage in 16 games and Pitt’s record in those games was 14-2 (87%). Conversely Pitt has lost the turnover battle just 8 times but their record in those games is 2-6 (25%).
Unfortunately, 2 of those 6 losses have occurred in 2 of the last 3 games. Losing to GT & Lou is unbelievable but it just shows how powerful turnover margin is.
Here’s the full breakdown.
Pitt +1. (7-2)
Wins - WVU, VT (3 times), NH, Clem, Lou
Losses - Miami, Mich St
Pitt +2 (4-0)
Wins - WMU, Tenn, GT (twice)
Pitt +3. (2-0)
Wins - A Peay, FSU
Pitt +4 (1-0)
Wins - WF
Pitt -1 (2-1)
Wins - UMass, UVA
Loss - Miami
Pitt -2. None
Pitt -3. (0-4)
Losses - GT, Lou, WM, ND
Looks like -3 accounted for the 3 worst losses in the last 2.5 seasons.
Pitt -4. (0-1)
Loss - Clem
0 Turnover Differential. (5-3)
Wins - RI, Duke, UNC, Cuse (twice)
Losses - Tenn, NC St, BC
2 of those 3 losses were in OT and NC St scored with 23 secs in regulation to seal a 1 point victory. It’s very likely that if Pitt could have been +1 in those games, they win all three.
Takeaways are going to be key to the winning percentage in the next 6 games.
For more contextSportswriter, Bert Hancock, assessed what impact turnovers had in 2007 CFB season. What he found was….
+1 turnover advantage won 65%
+2 turnover edge won 76%
+3 turnover advantage won 88%
+4 turnover edge won 96%
Pitt has been great over the last 2.5 seasons at winning the turnover battle. Over the last 32 games Pitt has had the turnover advantage in 16 games and Pitt’s record in those games was 14-2 (87%). Conversely Pitt has lost the turnover battle just 8 times but their record in those games is 2-6 (25%).
Unfortunately, 2 of those 6 losses have occurred in 2 of the last 3 games. Losing to GT & Lou is unbelievable but it just shows how powerful turnover margin is.
Here’s the full breakdown.
Pitt +1. (7-2)
Wins - WVU, VT (3 times), NH, Clem, Lou
Losses - Miami, Mich St
Pitt +2 (4-0)
Wins - WMU, Tenn, GT (twice)
Pitt +3. (2-0)
Wins - A Peay, FSU
Pitt +4 (1-0)
Wins - WF
Pitt -1 (2-1)
Wins - UMass, UVA
Loss - Miami
Pitt -2. None
Pitt -3. (0-4)
Losses - GT, Lou, WM, ND
Looks like -3 accounted for the 3 worst losses in the last 2.5 seasons.
Pitt -4. (0-1)
Loss - Clem
0 Turnover Differential. (5-3)
Wins - RI, Duke, UNC, Cuse (twice)
Losses - Tenn, NC St, BC
2 of those 3 losses were in OT and NC St scored with 23 secs in regulation to seal a 1 point victory. It’s very likely that if Pitt could have been +1 in those games, they win all three.
Takeaways are going to be key to the winning percentage in the next 6 games.
For more contextSportswriter, Bert Hancock, assessed what impact turnovers had in 2007 CFB season. What he found was….
+1 turnover advantage won 65%
+2 turnover edge won 76%
+3 turnover advantage won 88%
+4 turnover edge won 96%
