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Pitt +4.5 vs Miss State

Pitt666

Redshirt
Feb 19, 2024
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Dont know anything about Miss State, but review of box scores make them seem more like LSU than the B10. Short guards who can shoot but not a lot of 3 pt threats. Not great from line.
 
In their 84-79 win at SMU, their bench scored 54 points and they had 16 offensive boards. They go 10 deep.
 
I was looking at their roster and they have some grown men under the hoop. Likely gonna need Pappa K in their to bang a little.
 
It's up to +6. A bit surprising.
Yes. They lost to Butler who didn’t look all that great last night. Played SMU close. I think this is a winnable game for Pitt. Miss State has depth, but they are foul prone, not a great team from 3 outside of two players, and not a great FT team themselves.
 
Yes. They lost to Butler who didn’t look all that great last night. Played SMU close. I think this is a winnable game for Pitt. Miss State has depth, but they are foul prone, not a great team from 3 outside of two players, and not a great FT team themselves.
They seem to play from the inside physically a good bit. If GDG is out, and given our big's high propensity for fouling, we might get killed inside. Corhen and Kante will really have to play smartly and cleanly.

I'm staying away here, but I like that you can get good odds on Pitt to score 70+.
 
The line going to +6 tells me people already know GDG is out
What is the injury? When he isn’t hitting 3s, his value goes down. Not the worst thing if Austin continues to hit, or if Cummings can get going.
 
They seem to play from the inside physically a good bit. If GDG is out, and given our big's high propensity for fouling, we might get killed inside. Corhen and Kante will really have to play smartly and cleanly.

I'm staying away here, but I like that you can get good odds on Pitt to score 70+.
If they can’t shoot from the perimeter and they want to work the ball inside, play a zone.
 
I worry that they will be athletic enough to make us take tough shots. I watched A&M pretty much shut down Wake last night. They were strong enough inside to shut down Reid, but, they were tough on Wake's entire offense. Only Hunter Sallis was a good enough athlete to create some good shots. If they are quick and strong enough to stop Lowe and Leggett from driving, then this game gets pretty tough. I think we are better offensively, but, if they can defend similarly to A&M last evening, that would mitigate any advantage we may have.
 
I worry that they will be athletic enough to make us take tough shots. I watched A&M pretty much shut down Wake last night. They were strong enough inside to shut down Reid, but, they were tough on Wake's entire offense. Only Hunter Sallis was a good enough athlete to create some good shots. If they are quick and strong enough to stop Lowe and Leggett from driving, then this game gets pretty tough. I think we are better offensively, but, if they can defend similarly to A&M last evening, that would mitigate any advantage we may have.

This is exactly what I was thinking. A&M was big and athletic. Also, werent we supposed to flip Henry Coleman from East Carolina when he was in HS then he committed to Duke? Was that the guy? I remember he was very lowly ranked but since he was the last guy on the board, everyone wanted him.

I really worry about rebounding and paint production and paint defense in this game. Wisconsin and OSU (1st Half) ran layup lines against us. No rim protection. Maybe Kante will help.

BTW, I see Miss St got credit for a neutral site win for beating Utah 2 hours down the road in Southaven, MS. These are things we need to do. Play a game in Erie. Maybe play a cupcake game in Johnstown.
 
I worry that they will be athletic enough to make us take tough shots. I watched A&M pretty much shut down Wake last night. They were strong enough inside to shut down Reid, but, they were tough on Wake's entire offense. Only Hunter Sallis was a good enough athlete to create some good shots. If they are quick and strong enough to stop Lowe and Leggett from driving, then this game gets pretty tough. I think we are better offensively, but, if they can defend similarly to A&M last evening, that would mitigate any advantage we may have.
Who knows. A&M beat Ohio state but lost to UCF who lost to LSU who lost to Pitt. Pitt has athletes. Pitt also has size over Miss State guards.
 
This is exactly what I was thinking. A&M was big and athletic. Also, werent we supposed to flip Henry Coleman from East Carolina when he was in HS then he committed to Duke? Was that the guy? I remember he was very lowly ranked but since he was the last guy on the board, everyone wanted him.

I really worry about rebounding and paint production and paint defense in this game. Wisconsin and OSU (1st Half) ran layup lines against us. No rim protection. Maybe Kante will help.

BTW, I see Miss St got credit for a neutral site win for beating Utah 2 hours down the road in Southaven, MS. These are things we need to do. Play a game in Erie. Maybe play a cupcake game in Johnstown.
Not sure about Coleman. I am also worried about the inside game on both ends. They are deeper and we can't afford to get in foul trouble like we did against Wisky. They don't have anyone with the skill of Tonje, but if we are in deep foul trouble it may not matter. On the other hand, will we be able to finish against their bigs? I don't think we can win if Lowe and Leggett shoot 3s like they did against the Buckeyes.
 
Not sure about Coleman. I am also worried about the inside game on both ends. They are deeper and we can't afford to get in foul trouble like we did against Wisky. They don't have anyone with the skill of Tonje, but if we are in deep foul trouble it may not matter. On the other hand, will we be able to finish against their bigs? I don't think we can win if Lowe and Leggett shoot 3s like they did against the Buckeyes.
They will put up points if Miss is as lazy on d as they were against butler.
 
They will put up points if Miss is as lazy on d as they were against butler.
Credit butler for making those open 3s. Something tells me they will be paying a little more attention to the 3 pt. shooters tonight. If they leave us open, will we make them? We didn't last game, at least Ish and Jaland didnt.
 
Credit butler for making those open 3s. Something tells me they will be paying a little more attention to the 3 pt. shooters tonight. If they leave us open, will we make them? We didn't last game, at least Ish and Jaland didnt.
They also had a lot of uncontested drives. I’ll be a Homer and take Pitt tonight.
 
I think we can win tonight with or w/o GDG. Just saying something is up with the spread. I said the same thing about the spread for Wisc and that proved correct. With home court, I'd expect Miss St to be a 2-3 pt favorite. And of course they will get some home cooking from the refs (maybe that is figured in the spread!). But a spread that seems off usually make me nervous.....I think this is the rare case where the oddsmakers are off though, I like Pitt to cover +6 easily and likely win the game, with or without GDG.
 
I think we can win tonight with or w/o GDG. Just saying something is up with the spread. I said the same thing about the spread for Wisc and that proved correct. With home court, I'd expect Miss St to be a 2-3 pt favorite. And of course they will get some home cooking from the refs (maybe that is figured in the spread!). But a spread that seems off usually make me nervous.....I think this is the rare case where the oddsmakers are off though, I like Pitt to cover +6 easily and likely win the game, with or without GDG.
Could be considered a letdown game for Pitt. Heroic buzzer beating comeback win on the road. Lots of press since. High rankings...
 
What is the injury? When he isn’t hitting 3s, his value goes down. Not the worst thing if Austin continues to hit, or if Cummings can get going.
He usually hits one 3, and misses the rest. Not a consistent 3 point shooter. His brother went 4 for 4 in a prior game.
 
Per Torvik, this game is worth 1 seed line to Pitt. A win he has them as the second 4-seed, with a loss he has them as the 2nd 5-seed.

For Miss St, its worth 2-seed lines, from the 3rd 4 with a win to the 3rd 6 with a loss.
 
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