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Pitt -4 at Ga Tech

BFo8

Head Coach
Apr 2, 2013
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Hot off the presses from Circa.

I had figured Pitt -2 or 2.5, so being more than 3 surprises me a little.
 
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The wise guys think Pitt is the better team. Movement of the spread is decided by the betting public.
Not going to go into it again, but that isn’t how it works at all. Except in smaller limited markets books don’t move the number off public money, that would get a bookmaker fired, and rightly so.
 
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Steelers stink. Need to have a memorable season to get thing thing really humming. WMU loss did no favors but they need to redeeem themselves over the next few weeks. It’s there for the taking
 
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Not going to go into it again, but that isn’t how it works at all. Except in smaller limited markets books don’t move the number off public money, that would get a bookmaker fired, and rightly so.
OK. If you say so.
 
OK. If you say so.
I’ve given the analogy before, but when Floyd Mayweather walks into a book and bets 750k on some random NBA game no one moves their number at all, nor should they if they have any clue what they are doing. He is a known donk, someone who hits 45-48% long term so by moving off him you are just giving line value away to sharper players that will play the other side. Move off your number too much and you will get middled enough to affect your bottom line. The ideal scenario on any game for a bookmaker is for the public to be heavy on one side and have the sharps be on the other side for a smaller amount of money. If you can do that enough it’s almost like printing money in the long run.
 
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The ideal scenario on any game for a bookmaker is for the public to be heavy on one side and have the sharps be on the other side for a smaller amount of money.
Ok, what you are saying is: entice the nitwits to load one side, and then have the "in the know crowd" bet the the other way? The "difference" is hugely profitable over time(number of contests)? Am I understanding this, Thanks.
 
Ok, what you are saying is: entice the nitwits to load one side, and then have the "in the know crowd" bet the the other way? The "difference" is hugely profitable over time(number of contests)? Am I understanding this, Thanks.


It's not that you entice the "nitwits" to bet one way, it's that when the nitwits ARE betting one way they don't change the line in response. Because if they do the sharps will kill them.
 
I’ve given the analogy before, but when Floyd Mayweather walks into a book and bets 750k on some random NBA game no one moves their number at all, nor should they if they have any clue what they are doing. He is a known donk, someone who hits 45-48% long term so by moving off him you are just giving line value away to sharper players that will play the other side. Move off your number too much and you will get middled enough to affect your bottom line. The ideal scenario on any game for a bookmaker is for the public to be heavy on one side and have the sharps be on the other side for a smaller amount of money. If you can do that enough it’s almost like printing money in the long run.


The number of people who think that they understand the way that this works who get it exactly backwards is astounding.

Which, I guess, is why sports books don't go broke.
 
I’ve given the analogy before, but when Floyd Mayweather walks into a book and bets 750k on some random NBA game no one moves their number at all, nor should they if they have any clue what they are doing. He is a known donk, someone who hits 45-48% long term so by moving off him you are just giving line value away to sharper players that will play the other side. Move off your number too much and you will get middled enough to affect your bottom line. The ideal scenario on any game for a bookmaker is for the public to be heavy on one side and have the sharps be on the other side for a smaller amount of money. If you can do that enough it’s almost like printing money in the long run.
The "getting middled" part is something the average gambler has no clue about.

Love me a game when the public is hitting one side hard and then the line moves the opposite way. The best bets in sports are to go against against the public in those scenarios.
 
I don’t like that Pitt as the favorite. They seem to really crap the bEd in these spots.
 
I don’t like that Pitt as the favorite. They seem to really crap the bEd in these spots.
It's a good matchup for Pitt. Tech isn't a big passing team and if Simms starts he's a better runner than a thrower.

I know some will cringe, but the defensive game plan will be to make them beat you throwing the football. It's the right strategy.
 
IMHO, our pass coverage and our defense of speed plays to the outside is weak. I am expecting a loss with GT scoring a ton of points. The defense played vs Tennesse and Western Michigan doesn't give me a warm fuzzy. I don't credit the UMass of UNH blowouts in our favor since those games were little more than scrimmages.

Hope I am proven wrong!
 
The number of people who think that they understand the way that this works who get it exactly backwards is astounding.

Which, I guess, is why sports books don't go broke.
I’ll give you a much more recent example. A longtime friend of mine who has worked at literally every major book in Vegas recently moved back home to Maryland and is working at the Will Hill book that just opened up inside the Capital One Arena in DC.

He is the only one in the whole place with Vegas experience, and his coworkers somewhat look to him for direction, but all this guy wants to do is write tickets and blend in. When he walked into work a couple weeks ago the book manager ran up to him nervously and asked if he knew the guy at the counter. The guy had walked into the book with a backpack full of cash and wanted to bet Alabama -15.5 over Florida for 150k, and the manger had no clue what to do. The guy had said he was a known player and bet that much and more with Will Hill in Vegas all the time.

The manager said do you know who this guy is and my buddy laughed and said hell yeah, he’s a casino player who used to bet big when I worked at the Wynn and used to play at Cantor all the time when Mike Colbert ran the show there, he’s a total square. So the manager ended up taking the bet, even though his hands were almost shaking when they keyed it in. The player even said to my friend “Brian what the hell are you doing working here?”

Five minutes later when the manager saw that the line was still 15.5 he got visibly agitated and called the main office and asked why they hadn’t moved the number. He was basically told to mind his own business when it comes to moving numbers and that he has a lot to learn about the business. By the time my friends shift had ended the number had actually moved in the other direction, Alabama was now only a 14.5 point favorite and the book manager was dumbfounded. That guy needs to find a new career.

After the bet was a loser the manager came over and thanked my friend, who told him the outcome didnt matter and he should have been thanking him after the number moved in the opposite way.
 
One would have to be a true moron to bet on this game. I mean, lets be serious, betting on any pitt game is idiotic, but this game, especially at -4, is absolutely unbettable.
 
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