Pitt 6.5 underdog vs Gonzaga

[DC_Area_Panther]

according to Sagarin's starting ratings. Starts Pitt as #50 team (corresponds to #10 in ACC) Gonzaga #11 team. For some possible more favorable perspective, Georgetown is #17 team and would only be a 2 point underdog if they were playing Gonzaga and reportedly we took 4 out of 6 quarters from them in the secret scrimmage. So, just maybe we will have a top 15-20 type team this year?

I know, I know, this is all meaningless speculation at this point. But since no one has played a game that counts the professional odds makers probably won't be any more accurate when their starting lines appear in the next day or two.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Just to add in another prognostication, KenPom predicts a 70-67 Gonzaga win. 65 possession game.

 

[cabe23]

Hmm that's all pretty interesting. We'll see but I think it will be pretty close.

 

[DT_PITT]

Hmm that's all pretty interesting. We'll see but I think it will be pretty close.

I honestly have no idea what to expect.

 

[phijo]

I honestly have no idea what to expect.

I feel the same. It will take a few games before I have a better feel.

 

[DT_PITT]

I feel the same. It will take a few games before I have a better feel.

Gonzaga is really good.

 

[Scruffy the Panther]

Gonzaga is really good.

Yep. Hopefully we are too.

 

[Pittx9]

If Pitt is only 6.5 point underdogs and if they actually keep the game close, they're clearly better than the 10th team in the ACC. Gonzaga is going to have a really good team. For as low as Pitt was picked to be this season, this spread seems pretty odd to me.

 

[steel_curtain]

If Pitt is only 6.5 point underdogs and if they actually keep the game close, they're clearly better than the 10th team in the ACC. Gonzaga is going to have a really good team. For as low as Pitt was picked to be this season, this spread seems pretty odd to me.

Not odd. The game is in Japan. Karno is sick with Pneumonia, but slowly coming back. Sabonis is injured with a back injury and is a game time decision.

I watched some of Gonzaga's scrimmage. Their big guys are good, but slow. Karno played 20 minutes in the exhibition and was sucking wind. He isn't 100%, clearly.

Expect Wiljter to launch shots from all over and score anywhere, and make a number of them. He's a legit All American this year. We would be smart to double team him up a number of times this game and force other players to beat us. He can score points in bunches fast, we have to control him, not stop him. Perkins is slow, and doesnt look all that great for a point guard. A lot of their team can't shoot the 3 ball, so we should be looking to stuff the paint up as much as possible and clog the paint. Sabonis not being 100% greatly helps if he even plays.

Eric McClellan is the key. This kid has breakout potential this year and is athletic and can beat you in the transition game and off the bounce. He is an average shooter but pretty good on defense. With Jones coming back off injury, no Wilson it looks like, and Smith the new guy, we could have some problems with him. I would dare this team besides Wiltjer to beat us from 10-15+ feet out from the rim shooting the ball. Gonzaga is going to try and dominate the glass and push tempo.

The biggest key in this entire game is limiting to Gonzaga to one and dones after misses on our own defensive end. We must hit the defensive glass hard. Our guards and wings need to cheat to the inside all game long to clean up the glass. Dare this team to beat us from 3 and the midrange game. Limit turnovers and we can beat this team. They are good, but far from great right now. They will try and push tempo into a faster game. I'd like to see Pitt play faster this year, but to increase our chances of winning, we should slow it down and limit their possessions. Their entire team has a fast offensive shooting trigger. If we hold Wiltjer in check and play smart and not get crushed on the glass or in the transition game, we will win.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

If Pitt is only 6.5 point underdogs and if they actually keep the game close, they're clearly better than the 10th team in the ACC. Gonzaga is going to have a really good team. For as low as Pitt was picked to be this season, this spread seems pretty odd to me.

Not terribly strange because the starting ratings spread via Sagarin's computer between #1 and #50 is only about 11 points [93.17 (UNC) vs 82.32 (Pitt)]. This is the hypothetical AVERAGE neutral site scoring margin if a game between the two teams were played over and over and over again. This of course does not account for what may happen in a single game where one team might have a hot shooting night and the other a cold shooting night or other single game variables (player sickness or injury, etc). It also doesn't factor in home court advantage which is typically 3-4 points for the home team. So if Pitt plays UNC in Pittsburgh and the game has the AVERAGE result UNC should win by 7-8 points and if the game were at Chapel Hill UNC should win by 14-15 points if it is the AVERAGE result.

Of course, this assumes (in addition to assuming the AVERAGE game is played) that the ratings are accurate. Naturally, until multiple games into the season have been played by everyone and the ratings adjust to better reflect reality--these ratings for the AVERAGE game are an educated guess at best.

Here's Sagarin link--

http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm

 

[Pittx9]

Expect Wiljter to launch shots from all over and score anywhere, and make a number of them. He's a legit All American this year.

That's who really scares me. He's like a Kevin Pittsnogle that actually has talent. Gonna be really hard to slow him down I think.

 

[GoZags1]

Fair assessment, based on your observations.

Two items of note. If for some reason Karnowski and Sabonis ARE slowed ... Wiltjer has another "friend" ... i.e. 7'1" 290 redshirt soph Ryan Edwards ... who's just finished a year in the "Olynyk" Clinic (i.e. redshirt for Bigs).Ryan was a 2 sport star in High School ... basketball and a 3 year letterman in tennis.I don't think he's a "stiff" and he'll be the next great big man at Gonzaga.

Then there's GU's highest ranked recruit -- ever. PG Josh Perkins.This description here is the first time I've ever heard him described as "slow".

Bottom line ... it should be one heckuva college basketball game.

Not odd. The game is in Japan. Karno is sick with Pneumonia, but slowly coming back. Sabonis is injured with a back injury and is a game time decision.

I watched some of Gonzaga's scrimmage. Their big guys are good, but slow. Karno played 20 minutes in the exhibition and was sucking wind. He isn't 100%, clearly.

Expect Wiljter to launch shots from all over and score anywhere, and make a number of them. He's a legit All American this year. We would be smart to double team him up a number of times this game and force other players to beat us. He can score points in bunches fast, we have to control him, not stop him. Perkins is slow, and doesnt look all that great for a point guard. A lot of their team can't shoot the 3 ball, so we should be looking to stuff the paint up as much as possible and clog the paint. Sabonis not being 100% greatly helps if he even plays.

Eric McClellan is the key. This kid has breakout potential this year and is athletic and can beat you in the transition game and off the bounce. He is an average shooter but pretty good on defense. With Jones coming back off injury, no Wilson it looks like, and Smith the new guy, we could have some problems with him. I would dare this team besides Wiltjer to beat us from 10-15+ feet out from the rim shooting the ball. Gonzaga is going to try and dominate the glass and push tempo.

The biggest key in this entire game is limiting to Gonzaga to one and dones after misses on our own defensive end. We must hit the defensive glass hard. Our guards and wings need to cheat to the inside all game long to clean up the glass. Dare this team to beat us from 3 and the midrange game. Limit turnovers and we can beat this team. They are good, but far from great right now. They will try and push tempo into a faster game. I'd like to see Pitt play faster this year, but to increase our chances of winning, we should slow it down and limit their possessions. Their entire team has a fast offensive shooting trigger. If we hold Wiltjer in check and play smart and not get crushed on the glass or in the transition game, we will win.

 

[KiwiJeff]

Can't imagine watching a 7 foot guy play tennis. The serve would come at an extremely strange trajectory.

 

[Zaratoughda]

To be honest, I am not too optimistic about this game.

I am surprised the Zags are ranked as high as #11. Yes, they have the best starting trio of bigs in the country, but they lost their entire starting perimeter and the players replacing them have potential but can't be expected to bring anything near the 30 PPG the players they are replacing brought.

So, Few's plan is to start his trio of bigs (Karnowski, Sabonis and Wiltjer) all at the same time, with Wiltjer playing SF. This is what he did in their exhibition game but then Sabonis took his fall and it is unknown if he will play in the game against us (most like he will, IMO) and how effective he will be. So, we don't know if we will be seeing Wiltjer at SF or not.

On the other hand, we only lost one player of note (Cam Wright) but with players being moved to new positions, and grad transfers and JUCOs coming in, we have only one returning player starting in the same position he played last year (Robinson) and so, right now we don't really know what we have as a team. I think we know who the starters are (Robinson, Smith or Jones, Artis, Young and ANO) but is unknown who is gonna bring it and how well we are gonna perform as a team.

If Wiltjer starts at SF, we will have Artis, Slim, Jones, are maybe Jeter or Luther, trying to cover him and that does not sound that good.

Also, probably we will have ANO covering Karnowski but it will probably be Maia spelling ANO, and Maia isn't up to speed yet. The idea of Luther trying to cover Karnowski or Edwards, is not something I am looking forward to seeing.

The way we win this game is we keep their bigs, and Wiltjer in particular, from dominating and someone on our end, Jamel Artis most likely, picks it up offensively. If Jamel gets his game going I don't think they will be able to cover him. Would also be nice to see Jeter get it going, but right now, I don't think it is clear at all as to where he even fits into the rotation.

Game could get ugly with their bigs dominating early and ourselves not being able to get it going offensively. Yeah, would be a big plus for us if Smith or Slim get it going with 3balls.

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

I have a feeling we pull the upset.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Hope you are prescient!

 

[Pittx9]

I don't know what to think of Sabonis. Sounds like he's pretty injured and probably won't play. But he made the trip, an incredibly long flight that would be torturous on his back. I just don't see why put him through that unless he's gonna try and play. We'll find out tomorrow for sure I guess.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Probably had him in lay flat business class seat on the long Dan Fran Tokyo leg.

 

[Zaratoughda]

My guess is Sabonis will start but not play that many minutes. If the back tightens up then it not only means Wiltjer has to play PF they have NOBODY over 6'6" to spell him. This assumes the two giants, Karnowski and Edwards, only play C.