Pitt fan rooting guide for this Saturday

[UPitt '89]

Noon Games:

Tulane over #2 Cincinnati

- Any Cincy loss is good between now and the end of the season. Just need one slip up to eliminate them from playoff consideration.

#8 Michigan State over #6 Michigan

- Michigan is the better team, so root for the upset here. Then Ohio State will take down Michigan State... and then ideally Michigan upsets Ohio State.

Wisconsin over #9 Iowa

- Get Iowa that 2nd loss.

Texas over #16 Baylor

- A team Pitt can leap frog over.

UMass over Liberty

- Knock Malik Willis out of the Heisman race

2:00 Game:

#22 Iowa State over WVU

- Just because.

3:30 Games:

Florida over #1 Georgia

- Chaos!

Texas Tech over #4 Oklahoma

- We want Oklahoma to lose at least twice this year.

Colorado over #7 Oregon

- Eliminate the Pac-12 from the playoffs for good.

Clemson over Florida State

- We want Clemson to win out and end the season ranked.

4:00 Game:

#13 Wake Forest over Duke

- We want Wake to be 12-0 and in the Top 10 for the ACC Championship Game.

7:00 Games:

#18 Auburn over #10 Ole Miss

- Get Ole Miss their 2nd loss, and hurt Matt Corral's Heisman chances.

Mississippi State over #12 Kentucky

- Another team for Pitt to jump over in the rankings.

Kansas over #15 Oklahoma State

- No chance for Kansas to win... but if they keep it close, Pitt can jump over OSU.

7:30 Games:

#5 Ohio State over #20 Penn State

- Technically, it might help Pitt more if OSU loses....but let's knock Jimmy out of the Top 25 for the rest of the season.

North Carolina over #11 Notre Dame

- Another team for Pitt to jump over... plus we want UNC to be 6-3 when they come to Pitt and possibly ranked.

NC State over Louisville

- On the off chance that NC State wins the Atlantic, we want them ranked as high as possible for the ACC Championship Game.

10:15 Game:

Virginia over #25 BYU

- We want UVa to beat BYU and then Notre Dame so they are ranked when the come to Pitt. Could be a possible Gameday if Pitt is 9-1 and UVa is 8-2.

 

[BFo8]

Malik Willis is long out of the Heisman race, they’ve lost a couple games and he hasn’t had that good of a year even against bad competition. Most Vegas books currently have him around 750-1

 

[ShipofFools]

You may want to consult this for the chances of all that happening....and asking for UMass to beat anybody is a stretch.

 

[UPitt '89]

You may want to consult this for the chances of all that happening....and asking for UMass to beat anybody is a stretch.

It is a guide of what to root for... not what to bet on.

 

[ShipofFools]

It is a guide of what to root for... not what to bet on.

Good thing. There are 18 outcomes you present that need to happen including 8 ranked opponents losing to the unranked.

But I like your optimism. Myself, I can follow maybe three games before my mind shuts down and I turn to Seinfeld reruns to electroshock me back to reality.

 

[DT_PITT]

Noon Games:

Tulane over #2 Cincinnati

- Any Cincy loss is good between now and the end of the season. Just need one slip up to eliminate them from playoff consideration.

#8 Michigan State over #6 Michigan

- Michigan is the better team, so root for the upset here. Then Ohio State will take down Michigan State... and then ideally Michigan upsets Ohio State.

Wisconsin over #9 Iowa

- Get Iowa that 2nd loss.

Texas over #16 Baylor

- A team Pitt can leap frog over.

UMass over Liberty

- Knock Malik Willis out of the Heisman race

2:00 Game:

#22 Iowa State over WVU

- Just because.

3:30 Games:

Florida over #1 Georgia

- Chaos!

Texas Tech over #4 Oklahoma

- We want Oklahoma to lose at least twice this year.

Colorado over #7 Oregon

- Eliminate the Pac-12 from the playoffs for good.

Clemson over Florida State

- We want Clemson to win out and end the season ranked.

4:00 Game:

#13 Wake Forest over Duke

- We want Wake to be 12-0 and in the Top 10 for the ACC Championship Game.

7:00 Games:

#18 Auburn over #10 Ole Miss

- Get Ole Miss their 2nd loss, and hurt Matt Corral's Heisman chances.

Mississippi State over #12 Kentucky

- Another team for Pitt to jump over in the rankings.

Kansas over #15 Oklahoma State

- No chance for Kansas to win... but if they keep it close, Pitt can jump over OSU.

7:30 Games:

#5 Ohio State over #20 Penn State

- Technically, it might help Pitt more if OSU loses....but let's knock Jimmy out of the Top 25 for the rest of the season.

North Carolina over #11 Notre Dame

- Another team for Pitt to jump over... plus we want UNC to be 6-3 when they come to Pitt and possibly ranked.

NC State over Louisville

- On the off chance that NC State wins the Atlantic, we want them ranked as high as possible for the ACC Championship Game.

10:15 Game:

Virginia over #25 BYU

- We want UVa to beat BYU and then Notre Dame so they are ranked when the come to Pitt. Could be a possible Gameday if Pitt is 9-1 and UVa is 8-2.

Fun read ... thanks.

 

[UPitt '89]

Fun read ... thanks.

This is what I do to get my fix since I can't do a "bubble watch" for hoops.

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

Good thing. There are 18 outcomes you present that need to happen including 8 ranked opponents losing to the unranked.

But I like your optimism. Myself, I can follow maybe three games before my mind shuts down and I turn to Seinfeld reruns to electroshock me back to reality.

You didn’t understand what this person posted. Thick

 

[pittfanfromNC]

I don't want to see Wake in the ACC champ. Their offense is exactly what our defense is not suited for. They are all about big plays. I'd much prefer a NC State for an easier ACC champ game.

 

[cheesedanish9999]

I'm just concerned about the ACC championship.

If Pitt slips up to Miami or UNC then that Virginia game most likely determines the coastal because UVA only has 2 losses and they would own the tiebreaker over Pitt.

 

[Pitt2006]

I agree with all except we need Ohio State to lose, the sooner the better. Instead of saying let’s root for PSU, just think of it as wanting Ohio State to lose. I have faith in Franklin to blow another game or two soon enough, but Pitt needs a 2 loss B1g and this would help.

 

[Pitt2006]

I don't want to see Wake in the ACC champ. Their offense is exactly what our defense is not suited for. They are all about big plays. I'd much prefer a NC State for an easier ACC champ game.

Wake is Pitt 2016 statistic wise. They can score but not stop. Pitt is highly balanced efficiency wise. There is a reason wake only has a 2 percent playoff chance per models. Not saying it would be a cake walk, but a win over state doesn’t move the needle for the committee.

Wake 2021 5th offense 80th defense
Pitt 2016 2nd offense 70th defense
Pitt 2021 8th offense. 5th defense
NC St 2021. 25th offense. 18th defense

 

[9nationalchampionships]

I agree with all except we need Ohio State to lose, the sooner the better. Instead of saying let’s root for PSU, just think of it as wanting Ohio State to lose. I have faith in Franklin to blow another game or two soon enough, but Pitt needs a 2 loss B1g and this would help.

Let O$U lose next week and boat race the Enablers this week!

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Noon Games:

Tulane over #2 Cincinnati

- Any Cincy loss is good between now and the end of the season. Just need one slip up to eliminate them from playoff consideration.

#8 Michigan State over #6 Michigan

- Michigan is the better team, so root for the upset here. Then Ohio State will take down Michigan State... and then ideally Michigan upsets Ohio State.

Wisconsin over #9 Iowa

- Get Iowa that 2nd loss.

Texas over #16 Baylor

- A team Pitt can leap frog over.

UMass over Liberty

- Knock Malik Willis out of the Heisman race

2:00 Game:

#22 Iowa State over WVU

- Just because.

3:30 Games:

Florida over #1 Georgia

- Chaos!

Texas Tech over #4 Oklahoma

- We want Oklahoma to lose at least twice this year.

Colorado over #7 Oregon

- Eliminate the Pac-12 from the playoffs for good.

Clemson over Florida State

- We want Clemson to win out and end the season ranked.

4:00 Game:

#13 Wake Forest over Duke

- We want Wake to be 12-0 and in the Top 10 for the ACC Championship Game.

7:00 Games:

#18 Auburn over #10 Ole Miss

- Get Ole Miss their 2nd loss, and hurt Matt Corral's Heisman chances.

Mississippi State over #12 Kentucky

- Another team for Pitt to jump over in the rankings.

Kansas over #15 Oklahoma State

- No chance for Kansas to win... but if they keep it close, Pitt can jump over OSU.

7:30 Games:

#5 Ohio State over #20 Penn State

- Technically, it might help Pitt more if OSU loses....but let's knock Jimmy out of the Top 25 for the rest of the season.

North Carolina over #11 Notre Dame

- Another team for Pitt to jump over... plus we want UNC to be 6-3 when they come to Pitt and possibly ranked.

NC State over Louisville

- On the off chance that NC State wins the Atlantic, we want them ranked as high as possible for the ACC Championship Game.

10:15 Game:

Virginia over #25 BYU

- We want UVa to beat BYU and then Notre Dame so they are ranked when the come to Pitt. Could be a possible Gameday if Pitt is 9-1 and UVa is 8-2.

This is awesome. Thank you. I actually posed the question on the other board and this does the job thoroughly. Didn’t you used to do something like this on the basketball board that was quite popular? .

 

[WeaverIsComing]

im rooting for penn state

 

[Fk_Pitt]

im rooting for penn state

Me too. It’s going to be weird.

 

[Upg bobcat]

Wake is Pitt 2016 statistic wise. They can score but not stop. Pitt is highly balanced efficiency wise. There is a reason wake only has a 2 percent playoff chance per models. Not saying it would be a cake walk, but a win over state doesn’t move the needle for the committee.

Wake 2021 5th offense 80th defense
Pitt 2016 2nd offense 70th defense
Pitt 2021 8th offense. 5th defense
NC St 2021. 25th offense. 18th defense

This "slow mesh" RPO thing they run sounds like it could be the Western Michigan game all over again.

 

[Pitt2006]

This "slow mesh" RPO thing they run sounds like it could be the Western Michigan game all over again.

If it is and Pitt does not adjust that is on them, but if they hold on to the ball and not turn it over, I still like their chances. No game is a given, even this weekend. Really hope they focus and use that WMU game as the wake up call. So far they have. 4 straight double digit wins. 2 road blow outs.

 

[Pitt2006]

Two games that could be interesting particularly are UF/Georgia and TT/OK. Will TT come out fired up for their coach, or will they just hang it up. They are at 5-3 and one win away from bowl eligibility.

UF is 4-3. A loss drops them to 4-4 with Mullen on the hot seat. They adjusted well to Bama, lost a close one to UK with awful play from Emery, and lost at LSU with mediocre play from Emery including switching QBs. Mullen won't go down easy and I would expect some trick plays to try to steal possessions and extend drives. Still likely Georgia win, but not as much as a lock as others.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

If it is and Pitt does not adjust that is on them, but if they hold on to the ball and not turn it over, I still like their chances. No game is a given, even this weekend. Really hope they focus and use that WMU game as the wake up call. So far they have. 4 straight double digit wins. 2 road blow outs.

Really hope wake doesn’t use the WMU game, or the Syracuse game from 6 years ago as their guide to knowing exactly how to beat Pitt.

 

[DT_PITT]

This is what I do to get my fix since I can't do a "bubble watch" for hoops.

That's what I figured. I think we are still pretty far from a bubble watch.

And ... what? No photos?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Way way too early for this. We haven't had a regular season with fewer than 3 losses in 40 years. Our chances of winning the next 5 in a row is very small in my opinion. It requires 4, what I consider to be 50/50 games (Miami, UNC, UVa, NCSU/Wake). I feel it would be extremely hard to win all of those.

Just get me to 12-1 and then I'll see what the landscape looks like. At 12-1, we'd be #4-6 depending on what else happens.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

Noon Games:

Tulane over #2 Cincinnati

- Any Cincy loss is good between now and the end of the season. Just need one slip up to eliminate them from playoff consideration.

#8 Michigan State over #6 Michigan

- Michigan is the better team, so root for the upset here. Then Ohio State will take down Michigan State... and then ideally Michigan upsets Ohio State.

Wisconsin over #9 Iowa

- Get Iowa that 2nd loss.

Texas over #16 Baylor

- A team Pitt can leap frog over.

UMass over Liberty

- Knock Malik Willis out of the Heisman race

2:00 Game:

#22 Iowa State over WVU

- Just because.

3:30 Games:

Florida over #1 Georgia

- Chaos!

Texas Tech over #4 Oklahoma

- We want Oklahoma to lose at least twice this year.

Colorado over #7 Oregon

- Eliminate the Pac-12 from the playoffs for good.

Clemson over Florida State

- We want Clemson to win out and end the season ranked.

4:00 Game:

#13 Wake Forest over Duke

- We want Wake to be 12-0 and in the Top 10 for the ACC Championship Game.

7:00 Games:

#18 Auburn over #10 Ole Miss

- Get Ole Miss their 2nd loss, and hurt Matt Corral's Heisman chances.

Mississippi State over #12 Kentucky

- Another team for Pitt to jump over in the rankings.

Kansas over #15 Oklahoma State

- No chance for Kansas to win... but if they keep it close, Pitt can jump over OSU.

7:30 Games:

#5 Ohio State over #20 Penn State

- Technically, it might help Pitt more if OSU loses....but let's knock Jimmy out of the Top 25 for the rest of the season.

North Carolina over #11 Notre Dame

- Another team for Pitt to jump over... plus we want UNC to be 6-3 when they come to Pitt and possibly ranked.

NC State over Louisville

- On the off chance that NC State wins the Atlantic, we want them ranked as high as possible for the ACC Championship Game.

10:15 Game:

Virginia over #25 BYU

- We want UVa to beat BYU and then Notre Dame so they are ranked when the come to Pitt. Could be a possible Gameday if Pitt is 9-1 and UVa is 8-2.

Comments:
Agree with most.

Tulane is horrible.
Yeah it is a wash, the Big 10 East teams will now start to cannabalize each other. We need OSU more than any to get to 2 losses.
Wisky and Iowa, the battle of bad QB's. This is possible but not likely.
Texas over Baylor is definitely possible.
UMass? Are you kidding me?
Iowa State should beat WVU but WVU is at home, right?
Florida is not that good, but almost beat Georgia. Interesting game.
Texas Tech just fired their coach, but OKlahoma is playing with fire.
The Pac 12 is just god awful.
Yes, Go Clemson
Yes, Go Wake
I agree with Auburn over Ole Miss, just worried all the hilljack writers in the south then elevate Auburn over us.
Miss State is garbage but yeah.
Kansas....LOL.....
Yes, of course. I can hold my nose for one weekend and root for OSU.
Go Heels! This is an interesting game. I think UNC has a shot.
NC State yes.
Go Hoos!!!

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

Some notes on some of these games regarding ranking and oddsmakers.

#9 Iowa is a +3.5 point dog at a bad Wisconsin team

#12 Kentucky is only -1 at Miss St.

#10 Ole Miss is a +2.5 point dog at #18 Auburn

#11 Notre Dame is only a 4 point favorite at home against UNC

If you believe the moneyflow statistics provided by some sites on where the money is going, everyone is on Iowa and ND. However, neither line has really moved.

 

[pittdan77]

If you're truly worried about the CFP, the games this weekend that probably "matter" the most are ND and Georgia. You really want the loser of the SEC championship to have 2 losses and a one-loss ND could be very problematic unless the CFP committee really does value a conference champion more.

 

[Saboteur II]

Noon Games:

Tulane over #2 Cincinnati

- Any Cincy loss is good between now and the end of the season. Just need one slip up to eliminate them from playoff consideration.

#8 Michigan State over #6 Michigan

- Michigan is the better team, so root for the upset here. Then Ohio State will take down Michigan State... and then ideally Michigan upsets Ohio State.

Wisconsin over #9 Iowa

- Get Iowa that 2nd loss.

Texas over #16 Baylor

- A team Pitt can leap frog over.

UMass over Liberty

- Knock Malik Willis out of the Heisman race

2:00 Game:

#22 Iowa State over WVU

- Just because.

3:30 Games:

Florida over #1 Georgia

- Chaos!

Texas Tech over #4 Oklahoma

- We want Oklahoma to lose at least twice this year.

Colorado over #7 Oregon

- Eliminate the Pac-12 from the playoffs for good.

Clemson over Florida State

- We want Clemson to win out and end the season ranked.

4:00 Game:

#13 Wake Forest over Duke

- We want Wake to be 12-0 and in the Top 10 for the ACC Championship Game.

7:00 Games:

#18 Auburn over #10 Ole Miss

- Get Ole Miss their 2nd loss, and hurt Matt Corral's Heisman chances.

Mississippi State over #12 Kentucky

- Another team for Pitt to jump over in the rankings.

Kansas over #15 Oklahoma State

- No chance for Kansas to win... but if they keep it close, Pitt can jump over OSU.

7:30 Games:

#5 Ohio State over #20 Penn State

- Technically, it might help Pitt more if OSU loses....but let's knock Jimmy out of the Top 25 for the rest of the season.

North Carolina over #11 Notre Dame

- Another team for Pitt to jump over... plus we want UNC to be 6-3 when they come to Pitt and possibly ranked.

NC State over Louisville

- On the off chance that NC State wins the Atlantic, we want them ranked as high as possible for the ACC Championship Game.

10:15 Game:

Virginia over #25 BYU

- We want UVa to beat BYU and then Notre Dame so they are ranked when the come to Pitt. Could be a possible Gameday if Pitt is 9-1 and UVa is 8-2.

Pitt Miami is the only game I care about. The rest will take care of itself.

 

[UPitt '89]

Too many of you are reading my original post as a list of predictions.

It is not.

It is a list of what teams Pitt fans should be rooting for. I realize the odds of UMass or Tulane winning are infinitesimal. That's not the point.

Any of the above list that happens helps Pitt.

Even if only ONE of the above happens, it helps Pitt.

Again... this is what you should root for... NOT HOW YOU SHOULD BET.

 

[UPitt '89]

Pitt Miami is the only game I care about. The rest will take care of itself.

So you're literally only going to watch Pitt-Miami this week and watch ZERO other games?

Fans need to stop with the whole "we need to focus only on Miami!" schtick. We are not on the team. Any focus we have on other games, or future games, has ZERO impact on whether Pitt wins or loses. None. Nada.

Yes... the players and coaches need to be singularly focused ONLY on the Miami game. Fans do not. It is ok for us to talk about bowls, and playoffs, and awards, and such.

 

[pittmeister]

Noon Games:

Tulane over #2 Cincinnati

- Any Cincy loss is good between now and the end of the season. Just need one slip up to eliminate them from playoff consideration.

#8 Michigan State over #6 Michigan

- Michigan is the better team, so root for the upset here. Then Ohio State will take down Michigan State... and then ideally Michigan upsets Ohio State.

Wisconsin over #9 Iowa

- Get Iowa that 2nd loss.

Texas over #16 Baylor

- A team Pitt can leap frog over.

UMass over Liberty

- Knock Malik Willis out of the Heisman race

2:00 Game:

#22 Iowa State over WVU

- Just because.

3:30 Games:

Florida over #1 Georgia

- Chaos!

Texas Tech over #4 Oklahoma

- We want Oklahoma to lose at least twice this year.

Colorado over #7 Oregon

- Eliminate the Pac-12 from the playoffs for good.

Clemson over Florida State

- We want Clemson to win out and end the season ranked.

4:00 Game:

#13 Wake Forest over Duke

- We want Wake to be 12-0 and in the Top 10 for the ACC Championship Game.

7:00 Games:

#18 Auburn over #10 Ole Miss

- Get Ole Miss their 2nd loss, and hurt Matt Corral's Heisman chances.

Mississippi State over #12 Kentucky

- Another team for Pitt to jump over in the rankings.

Kansas over #15 Oklahoma State

- No chance for Kansas to win... but if they keep it close, Pitt can jump over OSU.

7:30 Games:

#5 Ohio State over #20 Penn State

- Technically, it might help Pitt more if OSU loses....but let's knock Jimmy out of the Top 25 for the rest of the season.

North Carolina over #11 Notre Dame

- Another team for Pitt to jump over... plus we want UNC to be 6-3 when they come to Pitt and possibly ranked.

NC State over Louisville

- On the off chance that NC State wins the Atlantic, we want them ranked as high as possible for the ACC Championship Game.

10:15 Game:

Virginia over #25 BYU

- We want UVa to beat BYU and then Notre Dame so they are ranked when the come to Pitt. Could be a possible Gameday if Pitt is 9-1 and UVa is 8-2.

Well done!

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

If you're truly worried about the CFP, the games this weekend that probably "matter" the most are ND and Georgia. You really want the loser of the SEC championship to have 2 losses and a one-loss ND could be very problematic unless the CFP committee really does value a conference champion more.

No way 12-1 Pitt gets in over 11-1 ND. Pitt's loss to Western Michigan would be the worst loss by far of any CFP team in its history. ND's loss would be to Top 5/10 Cincy. And the rest of their schedules are similar

They'd each have wins over GT, VT, UVa, and UNC. Pitt's other wins would be a little stronger but not enough to offset the WMU loss

UNH vs Toledo (edge ND)
UMass vs Navy (edge ND)
Duke vs Stanford (edge ND)
Syracuse vs USC (edge ND)
Miami vs FSU (TBD)
Ten vs Purdue (edge Pitt)
Clemson vs Wis (edge Pitt)
Wake/NC St (edge Pitt)

Pitt will be the lowest ranked 1 loss team so we need there to be 3 or fewer teams with 0 or 1 loss

Assuming UGa is in, we need 5 of the following 7 things to happen

- Alabama loses to UGa in the SECCG. I think an 11-2 SEC Champ Bama gets in over 12-1 Pitt

Oklahoma finishes 3-2 (this seems unlikely)

The Big Ten doesn't produce a 0 or 1 loss team. Best thing to root for is MSU over Mich, Mich over OSU, Iowa to lose another then B10W win B10 Champ.

Oregon loses another

Cincy loss

ND loss

The most likely CFP is UGa, OU, B10 East, and Cincy

 

[UPitt '89]

That's what I figured. I think we are still pretty far from a bubble watch.

And ... what? No photos?

Damn, I am slipping.

There needed to be cheerleader photos.

I suck.

Next week, i will do it right.

 

[UPitt '89]

Way way too early for this. We haven't had a regular season with fewer than 3 losses in 40 years. Our chances of winning the next 5 in a row is very small in my opinion. It requires 4, what I consider to be 50/50 games (Miami, UNC, UVa, NCSU/Wake). I feel it would be extremely hard to win all of those.

Just get me to 12-1 and then I'll see what the landscape looks like. At 12-1, we'd be #4-6 depending on what else happens.

None of Pitt's remaining games are 50/50 games.

Two are 70/30, one is 80/20, one is 90/10, and one is 99/1.

You'd make a horrible bookie and would lose your shirt every week setting incorrect lines and odds.

 

[Pitt2006]

No way 12-1 Pitt gets in over 11-1 ND. Pitt's loss to Western Michigan would be the worst loss by far of any CFP team in its history. ND's loss would be to Top 5/10 Cincy. And the rest of their schedules are similar

They'd each have wins over GT, VT, UVa, and UNC. Pitt's other wins would be a little stronger but not enough to offset the WMU loss

UNH vs Toledo (edge ND)
UMass vs Navy (edge ND)
Duke vs Stanford (edge ND)
Syracuse vs USC (edge ND)
Miami vs FSU (TBD)
Ten vs Purdue (edge Pitt)
Clemson vs Wis (edge Pitt)
Wake/NC St (edge Pitt)

The eye test comes into play. A ND team that needed a late 4th quarter comeback to win 32-29 over Tech or a Pitt team that dominated 28-7. Beating Toledo and FSU by 3. WMU is no stranger to the committee as they have more NY6 appearances than Pitt and should be 8-4. Your faith in ND to go 11-1 is quite strong. I wish you had that faith in this Pitt team.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Too many of you are reading my original post as a list of predictions.

It is not.

It is a list of what teams Pitt fans should be rooting for. I realize the odds of UMass or Tulane winning are infinitesimal. That's not the point.

Any of the above list that happens helps Pitt.

Even if only ONE of the above happens, it helps Pitt.

Again... this is what you should root for... NOT HOW YOU SHOULD BET.

Tip: for gambling purposes, if anyone interested in predictions, please consult SMF and bet the opposite.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

No way 12-1 Pitt gets in over 11-1 ND. Pitt's loss to Western Michigan would be the worst loss by far of any CFP team in its history. ND's loss would be to Top 5/10 Cincy. And the rest of their schedules are similar

They'd each have wins over GT, VT, UVa, and UNC. Pitt's other wins would be a little stronger but not enough to offset the WMU loss

UNH vs Toledo (edge ND)
UMass vs Navy (edge ND)
Duke vs Stanford (edge ND)
Syracuse vs USC (edge ND)
Miami vs FSU (TBD)
Ten vs Purdue (edge Pitt)
Clemson vs Wis (edge Pitt)
Wake/NC St (edge Pitt)

Pitt will be the lowest ranked 1 loss team so we need there to be 3 or fewer teams with 0 or 1 loss

Assuming UGa is in, we need 5 of the following 7 things to happen

- Alabama loses to UGa in the SECCG. I think an 11-2 SEC Champ Bama gets in over 12-1 Pitt

Oklahoma finishes 3-2 (this seems unlikely)

The Big Ten doesn't produce a 0 or 1 loss team. Best thing to root for is MSU over Mich, Mich over OSU, Iowa to lose another then B10W win B10 Champ.

Oregon loses another

Cincy loss

ND loss

I don't know, I think IF we and Wake win out, beating them in the conference championship at least equals their Cincy win (wouldn't be surprised to see Cincy lose to SMU). The fact that they almost lost to both FSU and Toledo is a factor as well. And that they almost lost to a VTech team (that was missing their QB for a decent chunk of time) that we dominated a week later plays into our favor as well.

I think ND loses one of their remaining ACC games anyways.

 

[Pitt2006]

I don't know, I think IF we and Wake win out, beating them in the conference championship at least equals their Cincy win (wouldn't be surprised to see Cincy lose to SMU). The fact that they almost lost to both FSU and Toledo is a factor as well. And that they almost lost to a VTech team (that was missing their QB for a decent chunk of time) that we dominated a week later plays into our favor as well.

I think ND loses one of their remaining ACC games anyways.

Unlikely, but would be very helpful if UNC, Virginia, and GT can pull out wins.

 

[Dointhatrag]

I agree with OP these are the ones we should root for happening. Any of them coming true helps Pitts CFP chances.

I agree that we should root for PSU over OSU this week to give both teams 2 losses. The CFP committee has shown that the second loss basically removes you from consideration if there are other 0 and 1 loss P5 teams to fill out the CFP.

However I see very little chance of James from State College having his team focused anymore to win tough games at this point.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Unlikely, but would be very helpful if UNC, Virginia, and GT can pull out wins.

I don't think it's all that unlikely that one of them can get it done. ND just isn't impressive from what I've seen of them this year.

Or are you saying all three beat them? That would be fantastic.

 

[UPitt '89]

I don't think it's all that unlikely that one of them can get it done. ND just isn't impressive from what I've seen of them this year.

Or are you saying all three beat them? That would be fantastic.

All we really need is one more ND loss. Any losses beyond that are a bonus.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

All we really need is one more ND loss. Any losses beyond that are a bonus.

Yes. One more loss and we jump ND by seasons end IF we take care of business. Additional losses by ND has the added benefit of weakening Cincy's already weak SOS.