Pitt Favored By 1
- Thread starter TheSpecialSauce
- Start date
They can’t be real happy w/ where their program is right now. Too many resources and too much talent to be at the bottom of the conference.
These are 2 bad teams, neither team can shoot. JC cried about the loss of Nike and Horton. But NCST actually had a major impact loss in Bates. He doesn’t put up big numbers. But he is the best rim protector in the ACC, last year lead the conference in blocks.
I wouldn’t bet on this game because anything can happen with these 2 bad teams. But I feel Pitt can physically beat up NCST up front and in the backcourt as they have the skinniest guards in the nation haha. Those guards can play Seaborn & Smith but the Smith kid is literally 145 pounds. If JC were smart he would have our physical guards put him on the block especially Burton who knows how to work out of the post.
I wouldn’t bet on this game because anything can happen with these 2 bad teams. But I feel Pitt can physically beat up NCST up front and in the backcourt as they have the skinniest guards in the nation haha. Those guards can play Seaborn & Smith but the Smith kid is literally 145 pounds. If JC were smart he would have our physical guards put him on the block especially Burton who knows how to work out of the post.
Not making a prediction but…
I have seen NC State carve our defense up and get anything they want on more than one occasion. I realize that most of those players are gone, but the coaching staff remains.
I expect them to score 70+
Can Pitt score at that level? I have not really seen evidence of that.
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Looks like JC has won back to back ACC games just once every season he has been here. Maybe NCST is this years once… but I wouldn’t count on it
FanDuel is Pitt -1
Bet MGM is Pitt -1.5
DraftKings actually started with Pitt -1, but now is Pitt +1.
We haven't beaten NC State since our very first ACC game 8 years ago and I don't see that streak ending any time soon.
Those numbers were up-to-date as of 5 minutes ago directly from the betting site.
I’m guessing he will bet $ 5 dollars on each Team.
Then come on here saying he Won..
SMF knows Betting.. I’m not sure he has that much money, so I could be wrong
Opening lines reflect what the computers tell them. Then, the line adjusts based on where the money is being bet. Pitt by 1 initially makes sense that way. (As an example--Sagarin's "recent" rating has Pitt by about 2 while his other 3 ratings have NC State by a little less than 1--- so averaging things the difference is you get Pitt by about 1. Overall his computer gives Pitt a 51% chance to win.0
When more money is being bet on NC State, the numbers change to make it less advantageous to pick NC State and encourage more money to be bet on the Pitt side. All this is being done to protect the house's money.
This isn’t how it works
Usually how it works. Sometimes the House has inside information that causes them to be willing to take a strong position.
The House them uses the numbers in the line to motivate people to bet the opposite side. (And lose )
Well we just don't beat NC ST. That said, they usually have at least a couple shooters and consirably more talent than us. That is not true this year. This league has really sunk talent wise the last couple years. Should be a good battle between bottom feeders. I wouldn't touch this game with that line either.
No, it isn't.
Public money doesn't really move the line. Money from sharps moves the line. If the books have 60% of their money on Pitt but all the sharp money is on NC State then the books are not going to move the line and give the sharps a chance to get more money on the game at an even more favorable number.
The books would rather be on the 40% side with the smart money than change the odds to try to make it 50-50 and end up on the opposite side of the smart money.
I actually just laid 20 bucks on State -1.5 , I think Smith and Seaborn will be the 2 best players on the court the entire game
My point was sometimes the House takes a stake. Generally they are OK living off the big.
Well you said that it was usually how it works, when it's not usually how it works. And they may be OK living off the vig, but that isn't what they are trying to do with line movements. With line movements they care a lot more about who is betting on each side than with the total amounts bet on each side, with a very few exceptions (like the Super Bowl).
Well, even the Super Bowl isn't immune to this. If you believe the %of money and %of bets numbers that are put out, there is much heavier action of the Rams. However, the line hasn't really moved. It's ticked up to 4.5 a couple times, then back down to 4.
Always take those % of money/bets numbers with a grain of salt. There are absolutely no regulations saying individual books have to report any of this information or even report it truthfully if they choose to do so.
The difference with the Super Bowl though is that there is just so much money bet on the game that if the books had a 60-40 split or something like that then their exposure is huge. If they've got a 60-40 split on some random Pitt basketball game, not so much.
William Hill in Nevada was at 4.5 for days and as part of some publicity thing went to 3.5 for 24 hours. That’s just really, really stupid. All it does is get a ton of money on the Rams and set them up for absolute disaster if the game lands on 4.
When they morphed into Caesars they fired Nick Bogdanovich, who was one of last real bookmakers left in town. There is no way he ever would’ve agreed to that, it is a massive risk for very little reward.
Um…ok🤣 what I said still holds true whether they had an off game or not, it’s adorable how you came to puff your chest out though, this program is an embarrassment and the win literally meant nothing, move along
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