Found it and thought it was worth posting:
Pitt football's got demons. Pat Narduzzi might be the guy to exorcise them
When a team brings a new coach aboard, it's a good time to look at the roster instead of the previous season's results. Sure, Pitt's results last year weren't horrendous -- the Panthers improved slightly for the third straight year under Paul Chryst, beat BC, Virginia Tech, and Miami, and were held back by a 1-5 record in one-possession games -- but the season-ending 6-7 belies what Chryst was returning in 2015.
So here are some components:
Ignore the name on the helmet, and you could talk yourself into that team, yes? But that helmet's hard to ignore.
A close-game record evens out over time; at least, it's supposed to. One lucky or unlucky year hints at an optical illusion, a team that isn't what it seems. The real team is exposed soon enough. But while I gave up on talking about curses long ago -- which, as a Missouri fan, is a big deal -- Pitt's got a case.
Call it the Curse of Johnny Majors. In the last 18 seasons, since Majors retired and Walt Harris took over, Pitt has had a winning record in one-possession games just five times and has been at least two games under .500 in such games nine times. In this nearly two-decade sample, the Panthers are 35-53 in these contests, a 0.397 win percentage.
That's incredible.
In three years under Chryst, Pitt ranked in the F/+ top 50 three times and boasted a strong offense (24th in 2014) and defenses (26th in 2012, 32nd in 2013). But they went 5-10 in one-score games and managed an 18-20 record overall.
Last year was a master class. Against Iowa, Pitt led by 10 points at halftime, outgained the Hawkeyes by 124 yards, and lost. Against Duke, the Panthers allowed a fourth-quarter kick return score, missed a 26-yard field goal at the end of regulation, and lost in double-overtime. Against UNC, Pitt led by 14 in the second quarter, outgained the Tar Heels, and took the lead with three minutes left, then gave up the game-winner in the final minute. In the Armed Forces Bowl, after Chryst had already left for Wisconsin, Pitt led by 25 points with 11 minutes left, but Houston recovered back-to-back onside kicks, scored three times in three minutes, and won.
The Panthers have managed to attend 13 bowls and share two conference titles in these 18 years. If these demons that have taken over Heinz Field ever relinquish their powers, Pitt could easily become an annual ACC Coastal contender.
And if you're looking to slay demons, it makes sense to hire the guy who helped to slay Michigan State's.
Sixteen years ago, Nick Saban left East Lansing for Baton Rouge, starting a seven-year period of frustration and the "Sparty, No!" meme. Under Bobby Williams and John L. Smith, the Spartans put a lot of individual talent on the field, dropped hints of excellent play, and went 38-45. From 2002-06, they went 4-14 in games decided by one possession. Nobody snatched disappointment from the jaws of hope as frequently as early-aughts Sparty.
Dantonio's Spartans have gone through ups and downs based on which way the close-game winds have blown; they went 6-12 in one-possession games from 2007-09, then went 8-1 in 2010-11 before settling into a nice 7-6 groove since.
But after going 22-17 in his first three years, Dantonio's gone 53-14 since, and that's including a 7-6 campaign in 2012.
It took Narduzzi and his boss Dantonio a while to get rolling, but "Sparty, No!" has been slain. Can Narduzzi do it again?
Graph Chart At LINK:
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...99/pitt-football-2015-preview-schedule-roster
Pitt football's got demons. Pat Narduzzi might be the guy to exorcise them
When a team brings a new coach aboard, it's a good time to look at the roster instead of the previous season's results. Sure, Pitt's results last year weren't horrendous -- the Panthers improved slightly for the third straight year under Paul Chryst, beat BC, Virginia Tech, and Miami, and were held back by a 1-5 record in one-possession games -- but the season-ending 6-7 belies what Chryst was returning in 2015.
So here are some components:
- A former four-star quarterback who completed 61 percent of his passes with a 16-to-7 TD-to-INT ratio last year as a sophomore.
- Perhaps the country's most efficient big running back.
- One of the nation's best wide receivers, targeted more frequently than Amari Cooper but still averaging more than 10 yards per target.
- An offensive line that returns six players with starting experience (62 career starts), including a former five-star coming into his own.
- One of the country's most underrated offensive coordinators, someone who crafted a top-10 (according to Off. S&P+) offense around two receivers at Tennessee in 2012, then a run-heavy top-15 offense at Arkansas two years later.
- A front seven that returns six players who had at least four tackles for loss.
- A secondary that returns six of its top seven, including a ball-hawking safety and an aggressive senior cornerback.
- One of the country's best defensive minds at head coach, along with a defensive coordinator that improved FIU's defense by 46 spots in Def. S&P+ last fall.
Ignore the name on the helmet, and you could talk yourself into that team, yes? But that helmet's hard to ignore.
A close-game record evens out over time; at least, it's supposed to. One lucky or unlucky year hints at an optical illusion, a team that isn't what it seems. The real team is exposed soon enough. But while I gave up on talking about curses long ago -- which, as a Missouri fan, is a big deal -- Pitt's got a case.
Call it the Curse of Johnny Majors. In the last 18 seasons, since Majors retired and Walt Harris took over, Pitt has had a winning record in one-possession games just five times and has been at least two games under .500 in such games nine times. In this nearly two-decade sample, the Panthers are 35-53 in these contests, a 0.397 win percentage.
That's incredible.
In three years under Chryst, Pitt ranked in the F/+ top 50 three times and boasted a strong offense (24th in 2014) and defenses (26th in 2012, 32nd in 2013). But they went 5-10 in one-score games and managed an 18-20 record overall.
Last year was a master class. Against Iowa, Pitt led by 10 points at halftime, outgained the Hawkeyes by 124 yards, and lost. Against Duke, the Panthers allowed a fourth-quarter kick return score, missed a 26-yard field goal at the end of regulation, and lost in double-overtime. Against UNC, Pitt led by 14 in the second quarter, outgained the Tar Heels, and took the lead with three minutes left, then gave up the game-winner in the final minute. In the Armed Forces Bowl, after Chryst had already left for Wisconsin, Pitt led by 25 points with 11 minutes left, but Houston recovered back-to-back onside kicks, scored three times in three minutes, and won.
The Panthers have managed to attend 13 bowls and share two conference titles in these 18 years. If these demons that have taken over Heinz Field ever relinquish their powers, Pitt could easily become an annual ACC Coastal contender.
And if you're looking to slay demons, it makes sense to hire the guy who helped to slay Michigan State's.
Sixteen years ago, Nick Saban left East Lansing for Baton Rouge, starting a seven-year period of frustration and the "Sparty, No!" meme. Under Bobby Williams and John L. Smith, the Spartans put a lot of individual talent on the field, dropped hints of excellent play, and went 38-45. From 2002-06, they went 4-14 in games decided by one possession. Nobody snatched disappointment from the jaws of hope as frequently as early-aughts Sparty.
Dantonio's Spartans have gone through ups and downs based on which way the close-game winds have blown; they went 6-12 in one-possession games from 2007-09, then went 8-1 in 2010-11 before settling into a nice 7-6 groove since.
But after going 22-17 in his first three years, Dantonio's gone 53-14 since, and that's including a 7-6 campaign in 2012.
It took Narduzzi and his boss Dantonio a while to get rolling, but "Sparty, No!" has been slain. Can Narduzzi do it again?
Graph Chart At LINK:
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...99/pitt-football-2015-preview-schedule-roster
