Pitt is the ONLY ACC team that controls their own destiny.

[GaryMcgheeForThree]

Here’s kind of an interesting discovery from a Reddit post on CFB.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/s/Ik7o0eBi0I

Essentially because of bloated conferences, there is no way to play entirely fair and equal schedules. This we already knew.

What could happen this year, albeit unlikely, is ending up with more than 2 undefeated teams in a conference, where a third gets left out of a conference championship because of tiebreaker rules (combined conference opponent record).

There are paths out there where Clemson, Miami, and SMU all go undefeated, leaving an odd man out.

Pitt plays two of those teams, and as the only team that does, controls their own destiny.

 

[HailToPitt725]

When you think about it, this is the first time we've been in-control of our own destiny for a national championship since 1982 thanks to the expanded playoff. We had just lost to Miami this time back in 2021 and were only playing for an ACC championship at that point. Same with 2009, 2004, 2003, etc.

You have to go all the way back to 1982 when we were ranked #1 heading into the Notre Dame game. Enjoy it while it lasts.

 

[FireballZ]

Here’s kind of an interesting discovery from a Reddit post on CFB.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/s/Ik7o0eBi0I

Essentially because of bloated conferences, there is no way to play entirely fair and equal schedules. This we already knew.

What could happen this year, albeit unlikely, is ending up with more than 2 undefeated teams in a conference, where a third gets left out of a conference championship because of tiebreaker rules (combined conference opponent record).

There are paths out there where Clemson, Miami, and SMU all go undefeated, leaving an odd man out.

Pitt plays two of those teams, and as the only team that does, controls their own destiny.

Let's say that Clemson, SMU and Miami all go undefeated. Obviously, one of them gets left out of the ACC championship game and one of them will lose in the ACC Championship game. The ACC is almost certainly not getting 3 teams into the field, so is it better to make the ACC Championship game and lose or is it better to be, say an SMU and not play at all, sitting at 11-1?

Clemson 12-1 ACC Champs AUTO
Miami 12-1 ACC Runner Up
SMU 11-1, but undefeated in ACC regular season

Could happen and would be interesting.

 

[GaryMcgheeForThree]

Let's say that Clemson, SMU and Miami all go undefeated. Obviously, one of them gets left out of the ACC championship game and one of them will lose in the ACC Championship game. The ACC is almost certainly not getting 3 teams into the field, so is it better to make the ACC Championship game and lose or is it better to be, say an SMU and not play at all, sitting at 11-1?

Clemson 12-1 ACC Champs AUTO
Miami 12-1 ACC Runner Up
SMU 11-1, but undefeated in ACC regular season

Could happen and would be interesting.

I think SMU would get left out in that scenario based on branding. Whether they should or not is another discussion…

 

[ChiefJusticeMarshall]

Miami is ranked 6th. They don't have to play Pitt, Clemson or SMU. Their remaining schedule is fairly easy. I think they control their own destiny better than anyone in the ACC.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

Let's say that Clemson, SMU and Miami all go undefeated. Obviously, one of them gets left out of the ACC championship game and one of them will lose in the ACC Championship game. The ACC is almost certainly not getting 3 teams into the field, so is it better to make the ACC Championship game and lose or is it better to be, say an SMU and not play at all, sitting at 11-1?

Clemson 12-1 ACC Champs AUTO
Miami 12-1 ACC Runner Up
SMU 11-1, but undefeated in ACC regular season

Could happen and would be interesting.

Miami 100% goes in that scenario because they played the extra game in the championship and only have one loss.

Flip that to Clemson losing and you have a discussion. Their losses would be to UGA and an undefeated ACC champ.

 

[Pitt_Boss]

Mentioned already, but Miami and Clemson have the inside track to CFP in all scenarios based on branding. I mean scenarios that involve subjectively picking a 2nd ACC team after the champion.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Let's say that Clemson, SMU and Miami all go undefeated. Obviously, one of them gets left out of the ACC championship game and one of them will lose in the ACC Championship game. The ACC is almost certainly not getting 3 teams into the field, so is it better to make the ACC Championship game and lose or is it better to be, say an SMU and not play at all, sitting at 11-1?

Clemson 12-1 ACC Champs AUTO
Miami 12-1 ACC Runner Up
SMU 11-1, but undefeated in ACC regular season

Could happen and would be interesting.

I'll eat crow on this if I'm wrong, but I highly doubt any 1-loss power conference team will ever be left out. Fans love coming up with these fantastical hypotheticals, but...

In 2021, the lowest a 1-loss power conference team was ranked at the end of the regular season + conference championships was 5th (it was ND, but they're basically a P4 team).

In 2022, the lowest was 4th.

In 2023, the lowest was 7th.


2015 - 7th
2016 - 4th
2017 - 6th
2018- 6th
2019-7th

And so forth and so on. If any P4 team goes 11-1 or 12-1 and doesn't win its conference, they're almost certainly still getting in.

 

[FireballZ]

Miami 100% goes in that scenario because they played the extra game in the championship and only have one loss.

Flip that to Clemson losing and you have a discussion. Their losses would be to UGA and an undefeated ACC champ.

Probably, but I'm not 100% on that. If Miami goes 12-1 and loses to Clemson then there's a really good chance they haven't even beaten an 8 win team all season (Louisville and VT, maybe). SMU would at least have the Pitt win. Neither resume (Miami 12-1 / SMU 11-1) would be very good, frankly.

 

[PITT 76]

I wouldn't be so quick to count SMU out if they go 11-1. That would mean they lost only one game to a top ten team by 3 points that were scored within the last 2 minutes.

However, I'm hoping that Pitt makes that a moot point this Saturday.

 

[Upg bobcat]

Miami 100% goes in that scenario because they played the extra game in the championship and only have one loss.

Flip that to Clemson losing and you have a discussion. Their losses would be to UGA and an undefeated ACC champ.

Probably, but I'm not 100% on that. If Miami goes 12-1 and loses to Clemson then there's a really good chance they haven't even beaten an 8 win team all season (Louisville and VT, maybe). SMU would at least have the Pitt win. Neither resume (Miami 12-1 / SMU 11-1) would be very good, frankly.

If SMU finishes 11-1, their only loss will be to BYU, a current unbeaten. If BYU runs the table, I think SMU deserves to go ahead of Miami.

I don't think it's that farfetched for BYU to go undefeated. Their remaining schedule is Utah, Kansas, ASU, and Houston. Utah is a rivalry game although they have a bye going into that. Iowa State will presumably be their toughest competition in the Big 12 championship.

 

[Pitt2009]

I'll eat crow on this if I'm wrong, but I highly doubt any 1-loss power conference team will ever be left out. Fans love coming up with these fantastical hypotheticals, but...

In 2021, the lowest a 1-loss power conference team was ranked at the end of the regular season + conference championships was 5th (it was ND, but they're basically a P4 team).

In 2022, the lowest was 4th.

In 2023, the lowest was 7th.


2015 - 7th
2016 - 4th
2017 - 6th
2018- 6th
2019-7th

And so forth and so on. If any P4 team goes 11-1 or 12-1 and doesn't win its conference, they're almost certainly still getting in.

This is my thinking too. Conference Champions can “steal bids”, say a 10-2 beats a 12-0 in the conference championship game. But it would need to be a crazy year for a 1-loss P4 not to make it.

 

[Upg bobcat]

This is my thinking too. Conference Champions can “steal bids”, say a 10-2 beats a 12-0 in the conference championship game. But it would need to be a crazy year for a 1-loss P4 not to make it.

It's most likely going to come down to whether a 1 loss ACC or Big 12 school deserves to get in over a 2 loss SEC or Big 10 school. My guess is that the ACC and Big 12 teams get the short end of the stick.

Any 1 loss SEC or Big 10 schools are getting in, no question.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5877984/2024/10/28/college-football-playoff-bubble-watch-acc-smu-miami-clemson/

Yes here is the scenario where SMU wins out but misses out on the conference championship game at 8-0 in conference due to the tiebreakers.

Considering how large the conferences are now, if this doesn't happen this year, I think it has a good chance of happening to someone in the next decade. You'd hope the at-large bids would save them for the CFP, but it'd still be frustrating to miss out on a chance to play for a conference championship because of something out of your control (conference opponents W/L record.)

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

This is my thinking too. Conference Champions can “steal bids”, say a 10-2 beats a 12-0 in the conference championship game. But it would need to be a crazy year for a 1-loss P4 not to make it.

Yeah, I'm sure it's a mathematical possibility now that these conference are huge and so many teams don't play each other. But it's probably even a lot less mathematically possible than people think, because they seldom take the schedules into account for every team that is in the conversation.

Beyond that, though, is the fact that we are barely across the halfway point of the season right now. And many of these teams have played 2-3 games against G5 or FCS competition. So, the old "it'll sort itself out" cliche is more accurate than it is lazy. Because it will. Going 11-1 or better in a power conference is difficult enough that it's just not going to happen for as many teams as these what-ifs would require. Like, Vegas would put Pitt going 11-1 as less likely than them going 8-4; that's how unlikely it is that all these teams are going to end up with 0 or 1 losses.

If a team has 4 games left where there is a 90% chance they will win each, then the odds of winning all 4 is only 65.61%. If there is a 75% chance to win each, the odds of sweeping all 4 is 31.64%. It's just not as common as some are making it out to be.