The preseason line was Pitt by 9. We just won by 1 more point (21 vs 20) over a team 3 points better according to Sagarin (Villanova > Kent St) , so add those 4 points to the 3 we get for being in the Burgh, and theoretically we should be favored by 7 in the crudest determination of betting line ever. But guess what, I'd say Pitt by a TD seems about right.
Pitt's biggest questions that could move the line: Will our run blocking improve, like a lot? Will Hendrix be back? Can Blewitt make a FG or 2 if needed? Can our DL get that kind of push and disruption against an FBS team? Can Henderson be consistently very good as a returner? How much more is there to our offense (ex: reverses/sweeps with Weah and Henderson)?
PSU's biggest questions that could move the line: How concerning is it that PSU needed 2 interceptions to beat a really bad Kent St team (Athlon picked them 119th), and they're about to face a QB not prone to interceptions/mistakes? Can PSU out-rush a (theoretically) good rushing team if they just got out-rushed by Kent St? How much does McSorely improve his poor passing from Game 1 to 2, and how much does that get offset by facing a DL much better at penetrating and a much better secondary?
Way too early prediction: Pitt W 17-10
Way too early storylines: Peterman's dink-n-dunks to several receivers move the offense enough for 3 scores (including another Weah TD from about 25 yards out), and the OL/gameplan improves enough for the RB's to average 3.5 to 4.0 yards/carry. The DL keeps McSorely unsettled in the pocket and in his read-option decisions (we see more of Watts), but the LB's and Whitehead stay close to the line of scrimmage to keep him from taking off and damaging us with his legs. A lot of short drives and punts by both offenses. PSU's superior punter actually helps Pitt win the special teams game since his 45-50 yarders give Henderson more room to get going.
Pitt's biggest questions that could move the line: Will our run blocking improve, like a lot? Will Hendrix be back? Can Blewitt make a FG or 2 if needed? Can our DL get that kind of push and disruption against an FBS team? Can Henderson be consistently very good as a returner? How much more is there to our offense (ex: reverses/sweeps with Weah and Henderson)?
PSU's biggest questions that could move the line: How concerning is it that PSU needed 2 interceptions to beat a really bad Kent St team (Athlon picked them 119th), and they're about to face a QB not prone to interceptions/mistakes? Can PSU out-rush a (theoretically) good rushing team if they just got out-rushed by Kent St? How much does McSorely improve his poor passing from Game 1 to 2, and how much does that get offset by facing a DL much better at penetrating and a much better secondary?
Way too early prediction: Pitt W 17-10
Way too early storylines: Peterman's dink-n-dunks to several receivers move the offense enough for 3 scores (including another Weah TD from about 25 yards out), and the OL/gameplan improves enough for the RB's to average 3.5 to 4.0 yards/carry. The DL keeps McSorely unsettled in the pocket and in his read-option decisions (we see more of Watts), but the LB's and Whitehead stay close to the line of scrimmage to keep him from taking off and damaging us with his legs. A lot of short drives and punts by both offenses. PSU's superior punter actually helps Pitt win the special teams game since his 45-50 yarders give Henderson more room to get going.
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