There has been a lot of debate on here on what is Pitt’s true potential and ceiling and how Clemson took what was mostly a middling program into almost a dynastic college football program. One wonders what it would take. We focus a lot (rightly so) about attendance, revenue, stadium, coaching salaries, etc…and all are true. But Penn State, Michigan, Notre Dame is amongst the richest programs in the country, why aren’t they dominating? They are all national programs, brand names, they all have to go into other’s backyards to get talent. Fortunately for them, they mostly can do this. For Pitt? Not so much. Pitt’s great teams in the 70’s and early 80’s where based on talent accumulated via two distinct ways. 1) Local. Dorsett, Marino, Pryor, Fralic, Covert, Collins etc…where all national recruits. Pitt also recruited Eastern PA and Jersey well. 2) The SEC back then still was slow to recruit the southern black athletes, which allowed a Hugh Green, Rickey Jackson, Carlton Williamson to come north.
The times have changed. But nothing has changed more than the shift of talent. I am going to use Rivals as my source, as this is as good of a site and has as long of history as anyone.
Just to explain what I did. 2003 was the first year I could get Rivals State Rankings. That is over 15 years ago. So what I did, I took 2003, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, 18 and 19 as year’s to review. I didn’t “cherry pick”, it was obvious. 2003 was the earliest information, I can get, then I took 5 year increments, and obviously the 3 latest recruiting classes. I did this and am explaining this upfront just to reaffirm, I was not cherry picking years and data to support a narrative. It “is what it is”. What I am looking for through out this is there significant trends? Is the numbers that in favor of certain areas and if so, how different? Where is the talent at? Now I did not include Texas and California, we know they are loaded, nor Louisiana. I focused on the Southeastern states, PA, OH and the Mid Atlantic. What would be the typical recruiting areas for Pitt, for Clemson, for most of the ACC.
Other discoveries, Rivals tend to have more evaluations of kids now than they did in 2003. They definitely have more 4 stars, but not necessarily 5 stars. Anyways,
Pennsylvania. In 2003 Rivals had a top 50 for PA. By 2005-2010 it was a Top 40. 2015, It was a top 35. In 2017 it is a Top 30, in 2019 it is a Top 25. In this time, PA has basically had its “ranked” recruits cut in half, from 50 to 25. And while there are no clearcut rules, the “ranked” players appear to be guys with a 5.5 RR rating, which is a mid to low 3 star. So, if Pitt is getting say 20% of PA’s top 40 kids, chances are that 10-15 years ago, those kids at the bottom were better than they are now. Also, I looked at 4/5 star recruits. PA averages say 8-9 4/5 star recruits a year. Mostly all 4 stars. What I didn’t break out is WPIAL or Western vs Eastern Pa.
Ohio. In 2003 Rivals had a top 50 for Ohio. In 2010 they had a Top 75. In 2015-18 it is Top 60. In 2019 it is a Top 55. Ohio averages around 14-15 4/5 stars a year. This is one of the great mysteries to me. Ohio and PA have almost the same demographics, it is located in the same geographical region, yet Ohio football has not declined like PA football has. If someone can explain to me why, I would love to hear.
New Jersey. In 2003 Rivals has a top 25, 2010 a Top 30, and the latest few classes, they have had a Top 35. Again, a mystery. They now have more kids ranked than PA. Average 4/5 per class is around 10. Which is slightly better than PA. But again, why? What has happened to the great football state of Pennsylvania?
Now we are going to move down South. Clemson is 30 miles from the Georgia border. 2 hours from downtown Atlanta, an hour from northern suburbs, 90 minutes from Athens. It is also 90 minutes from Charlotte, and only 3 hours from Birmingham. So I drew on the states of Georgia, Alabama, Florida, SC, NC as their recruiting base. Of course Florida is “everyone’s recruiting base”.
Georgia: In 2003, Rivals had a top 50 with Georgia. In 2010-15 they had a list of Top 75. 2018, Georgia had a Top 100. In 2019, a Top 130. Georgia averages, 38 4/5 stars per year now. Think about this. Georgia has as many players listed as PA/OH/NJ combined. PA in these years, had five 5 stars, Georgia had 18. Georgia also has more 4/5 stars on average on hat’s one state.
Alabama: In 2003 Rivals had a top 30. In 2010-2015, Top 40, and now Top 50. Alabama is averaging 13 4/5 stars a year.
North Carolina, went from a Top 25 in 2003 to now a top 50. They have went from 5-8 4/5 stars per year to now around 12-15.
South Carolina , stayed relatively the same. Top 25, an average around six 4/5 stars a year.
Just for fun, Florida has always had a Top 100. (They probably actually have 250 guys in that 5.5 range or above). For example, the 98th, 99th and 100th guys on their Top 100 list this year are going to FSU, Miami and Iowa accordingly. Florida also is now averaging around 55 4/5 stars a year!!!!
Anyways, my point here, the talent in our backyard is so far below what the talent in Clemson or an Alabama or UGA’s backyard. What is also disgusting is seeing the top kids in Virginia, Maryland and Jersey now seem to be Penn State’s.
But the talent here is nowhere near. As Mike White wrote about a few months ago, there used to be 40-50 P5 type of kids in the WPIAL back in the 70’s/80’s alone. Now, maybe 10. So how is it even possible to compete year in year out at a top 10 level anymore? It is no longer possible. Not to mention, and this is a whole another topic, is how many of the top 15 (the true 4/5 stars) are Pitt getting now vs back in the day??
The times have changed. But nothing has changed more than the shift of talent. I am going to use Rivals as my source, as this is as good of a site and has as long of history as anyone.
Just to explain what I did. 2003 was the first year I could get Rivals State Rankings. That is over 15 years ago. So what I did, I took 2003, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, 18 and 19 as year’s to review. I didn’t “cherry pick”, it was obvious. 2003 was the earliest information, I can get, then I took 5 year increments, and obviously the 3 latest recruiting classes. I did this and am explaining this upfront just to reaffirm, I was not cherry picking years and data to support a narrative. It “is what it is”. What I am looking for through out this is there significant trends? Is the numbers that in favor of certain areas and if so, how different? Where is the talent at? Now I did not include Texas and California, we know they are loaded, nor Louisiana. I focused on the Southeastern states, PA, OH and the Mid Atlantic. What would be the typical recruiting areas for Pitt, for Clemson, for most of the ACC.
Other discoveries, Rivals tend to have more evaluations of kids now than they did in 2003. They definitely have more 4 stars, but not necessarily 5 stars. Anyways,
Pennsylvania. In 2003 Rivals had a top 50 for PA. By 2005-2010 it was a Top 40. 2015, It was a top 35. In 2017 it is a Top 30, in 2019 it is a Top 25. In this time, PA has basically had its “ranked” recruits cut in half, from 50 to 25. And while there are no clearcut rules, the “ranked” players appear to be guys with a 5.5 RR rating, which is a mid to low 3 star. So, if Pitt is getting say 20% of PA’s top 40 kids, chances are that 10-15 years ago, those kids at the bottom were better than they are now. Also, I looked at 4/5 star recruits. PA averages say 8-9 4/5 star recruits a year. Mostly all 4 stars. What I didn’t break out is WPIAL or Western vs Eastern Pa.
Ohio. In 2003 Rivals had a top 50 for Ohio. In 2010 they had a Top 75. In 2015-18 it is Top 60. In 2019 it is a Top 55. Ohio averages around 14-15 4/5 stars a year. This is one of the great mysteries to me. Ohio and PA have almost the same demographics, it is located in the same geographical region, yet Ohio football has not declined like PA football has. If someone can explain to me why, I would love to hear.
New Jersey. In 2003 Rivals has a top 25, 2010 a Top 30, and the latest few classes, they have had a Top 35. Again, a mystery. They now have more kids ranked than PA. Average 4/5 per class is around 10. Which is slightly better than PA. But again, why? What has happened to the great football state of Pennsylvania?
Now we are going to move down South. Clemson is 30 miles from the Georgia border. 2 hours from downtown Atlanta, an hour from northern suburbs, 90 minutes from Athens. It is also 90 minutes from Charlotte, and only 3 hours from Birmingham. So I drew on the states of Georgia, Alabama, Florida, SC, NC as their recruiting base. Of course Florida is “everyone’s recruiting base”.
Georgia: In 2003, Rivals had a top 50 with Georgia. In 2010-15 they had a list of Top 75. 2018, Georgia had a Top 100. In 2019, a Top 130. Georgia averages, 38 4/5 stars per year now. Think about this. Georgia has as many players listed as PA/OH/NJ combined. PA in these years, had five 5 stars, Georgia had 18. Georgia also has more 4/5 stars on average on hat’s one state.
Alabama: In 2003 Rivals had a top 30. In 2010-2015, Top 40, and now Top 50. Alabama is averaging 13 4/5 stars a year.
North Carolina, went from a Top 25 in 2003 to now a top 50. They have went from 5-8 4/5 stars per year to now around 12-15.
South Carolina , stayed relatively the same. Top 25, an average around six 4/5 stars a year.
Just for fun, Florida has always had a Top 100. (They probably actually have 250 guys in that 5.5 range or above). For example, the 98th, 99th and 100th guys on their Top 100 list this year are going to FSU, Miami and Iowa accordingly. Florida also is now averaging around 55 4/5 stars a year!!!!
Anyways, my point here, the talent in our backyard is so far below what the talent in Clemson or an Alabama or UGA’s backyard. What is also disgusting is seeing the top kids in Virginia, Maryland and Jersey now seem to be Penn State’s.
But the talent here is nowhere near. As Mike White wrote about a few months ago, there used to be 40-50 P5 type of kids in the WPIAL back in the 70’s/80’s alone. Now, maybe 10. So how is it even possible to compete year in year out at a top 10 level anymore? It is no longer possible. Not to mention, and this is a whole another topic, is how many of the top 15 (the true 4/5 stars) are Pitt getting now vs back in the day??
