Pitt's path to the NCAA Tournament

[Sean Miller Fan]

Need to go 13-7. We are 1-0. We SHOULD have 5 wins vs Lou, FSU, and BC. Need to find 7 more.

Next 4 ACC games : @ Syr, UNC, UVa, Clem. Need to win 2.

Need to beat Wake at home. Split with Miami, split with GT.

This leaves 2 more Ws we need to get. 1 would probably have to be the last regular season game at ND, a place we seem to haven't been within 20 points of in about 10 years.

Hard to find the last one. Either going to have to sweep Miami or GT or pull an upset of UNC, Duke, UVa, or VT.

No margin for error but there is a path.

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

Hmm, that’s a lot of needs brother.
Is there a path to a winning record?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Is there a path to a winning record?

Win more than we lose?

 

[PittPharm2002]

Where we are going , we don’t need roads!

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Where we are going , we don’t need roads!

Probably but ESPN lists us as the favorite in 9 more ACC games, not including @ FSU so that's 10. Yes, it would be near impossible to run the table in all 10 of those and find 2 other wins along along the way but there is a very narrow path.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

Need to go 13-7. We are 1-0. We SHOULD have 5 wins vs Lou, FSU, and BC. Need to find 7 more.

Next 4 ACC games : @ Syr, UNC, UVa, Clem. Need to win 2.

Need to beat Wake at home. Split with Miami, split with GT.

This leaves 2 more Ws we need to get. 1 would probably have to be the last regular season game at ND, a place we seem to haven't been within 20 points of in about 10 years.

Hard to find the last one. Either going to have to sweep Miami or GT or pull an upset of UNC, Duke, UVa, or VT.

No margin for error but there is a path.

This is ridiculous. They’re not gonna split with Miami. They’re much more talented. They’ll lose at least one you have them slated to win already.

And you’re assuming this is the first Capel team in his last 7 years as a head coach that doesn’t completely collapse and get worse as the season goes. That’s a gigantic assumption.

My prediction: Hugley never gets in shape, Fede starts every game the rest of the year. Chet Mason no longer in love with Capel as they thought John should’ve went pro last year (yes I am laughing too). Nike sees the writing on the wall that he stayed to be a spot minute guy at 24 years old. Those two get together and sabotage the team because the staff doesn’t have a pulse of the team.

Voila. There’s your collapse

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

This is ridiculous. They’re not gonna split with Miami. They’re much more talented. They’ll lose at least one you have them slated to win already.

And you’re assuming this is the first Capel team in his last 7 years as a head coach that doesn’t completely collapse and get worse as the season goes. That’s a gigantic assumption.

My prediction: Hugley never gets in shape, Fede starts every game the rest of the year. Chet Mason no longer in love with Capel as they thought John should’ve went pro last year (yes I am laughing too). Nike sees the writing on the wall that he stayed to be a spot minute guy at 24 years old. Those two get together and sabotage the team because the staff doesn’t have a pulse of the team.

Voila. There’s your collapse

I dont think they're going to do it. A collapse, 6-14 is more likely. Just saying if they just pull a couple upsets and win all the games they're supposed to, there is a path. I predicted 8-12 all along and I'm sticking with 8-12.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

So, SMF's actual prediction is 8-12 ACC regular season. That would mean 7-4 OOC + 8-12 ACC = 15-16 headed into ACC Tourney with almost no chance of finishing over 0.500. Bballinsider thinks it will be 7-4 OOC + 6-14 = 13-18. If the latter, Capel will be gone--with the former he might also be gone -- but probably more of a tossup call for by the AD.

I am still hoping for somehow there will be a 10-10 ACC record and a 17-14 regular season with an overall winning record no matter what happens in the ACC tourney.
That result would at last show the proper trajectory.

However, I see no way that that SMF's wishful thinking of 13-7 can happen. On the other hand, IMHO, I also don't see Insider's collapse happening either--too much senior leadership and too weak an ACC middle and bottom this season for it to happen this time; but, just my opinion.

 

[DT_PITT]

So, SMF's actual prediction is 8-12 ACC regular season. That would mean 7-4 OOC + 8-12 ACC = 15-16 headed into ACC Tourney with almost no chance of finishing over 0.500. Bballinsider thinks it will be 7-4 OOC + 6-14 = 13-18. If the latter, Capel will be gone--with the former he might also be gone -- but probably more of a tossup call for by the AD.

I am still hoping for somehow there will be a 10-10 ACC record and a 17-14 regular season with an overall winning record no matter what happens in the ACC tourney.
That result would at last show the proper trajectory.

However, I see no way that that SMF's wishful thinking of 13-7 can happen. On the other hand, IMHO, I also don't see Insider's collapse happening either--too much senior leadership and too weak an ACC middle and bottom this season for it to happen this time; but, just my opinion.

This is a reasonable response for sure.

 

[Wanstash21]

This is ridiculous. They’re not gonna split with Miami. They’re much more talented. They’ll lose at least one you have them slated to win already.

And you’re assuming this is the first Capel team in his last 7 years as a head coach that doesn’t completely collapse and get worse as the season goes. That’s a gigantic assumption.

My prediction: Hugley never gets in shape, Fede starts every game the rest of the year. Chet Mason no longer in love with Capel as they thought John should’ve went pro last year (yes I am laughing too). Nike sees the writing on the wall that he stayed to be a spot minute guy at 24 years old. Those two get together and sabotage the team because the staff doesn’t have a pulse of the team.

Voila. There’s your collapse

did Capel tell John not to go pro?

 

[Duneaux Harm]

We will know so much more about this team very early in January. I think chances of NCAA bid are none to even more none. Chances at NIT are slimmish. Chances of a collapse are likely. Even Dixon’s teams limpedhome many times. Jeff seems to have it as a majority of times.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

did Capel tell John not to go pro?

No clue. I was creating an imaginary scenario. @DC_Area_Panther scenario is more plausible, although I don’t think it’s possible he creates another barely winning team with 4 24 year old guards all willing to accept lesser roles for the glory of dear old Pittsburgh as Nelly, Nike, Burton were willing to do.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

No clue. I was creating an imaginary scenario. @DC_Area_Panther scenario is more plausible, although I don’t think it’s possible he creates another barely winning team with 4 24 year old guards all willing to accept lesser roles for the glory of dear old Pittsburgh as Nelly, Nike, Burton were willing to do.

How about a new and strong personality is injected into the locker room in January and the chemistry goes south and boom!

 

[Wanstash21]

No clue. I was creating an imaginary scenario. @DC_Area_Panther scenario is more plausible, although I don’t think it’s possible he creates another barely winning team with 4 24 year old guards all willing to accept lesser roles for the glory of dear old Pittsburgh as Nelly, Nike, Burton were willing to do.

in a vacuum, I like Pitt's chances in quite a few games. We'll see how they handle the ACC schedule with the ups and downs that come with it.

 

[PittPharm2002]

How about a new and strong personality is injected into the locker room in January and the chemistry goes south and boom!

I mean maybe we need it since we’ve tanked each February

 

[Fk_Pitt]

I mean maybe we need it since we’ve tanked each February

Yep. That’s a good point too. I was actually hoping John can get fit over the next 6 weeks and then be that injection we need come Feb 1. Your scenario might be more likely.

 

[Chescat]

I dont think they're going to do it. A collapse, 6-14 is more likely. Just saying if they just pull a couple upsets and win all the games they're supposed to, there is a path. I predicted 8-12 all along and I'm sticking with 8-12.

Well that's a lot better
than your initial post in
this thread.

The way I see it is if Pitt
can beat NC ST (a very
good team) in an away
game, they could pull
some upsets. However
the Vandy game also
tells us a lot about this
team. IMO it was similar
talent, with maybe an
edge to Pitt. We should
have won. Instead we
regressed. Hell last year
we knocked off a national
finalist, UNC. This is what
Capel's teams did, still do,
and probably will continue
to do. IMO, we should be
competitive against the
BC's, Louisville's, and FSU's.
Win all of those, and get
splits with the likes of
Miami and others? 13-7?
No possible way. Another
poster suggested 10-10.
I'd be elated with that.
BTW, Lyke would also be
elated with that. So much
so, Capel would remain
as Pitt's coach.

 

[Wanstash21]

Yep. That’s a good point too. I was actually hoping John can get fit over the next 6 weeks and then be that injection we need come Feb 1. Your scenario might be more likely.

plenty of overweight players are effective. The issue is that he looks totally lost on the court.. even if we was in shape.. he'd still look lost.

 

[Wanstash21]

Well that's a lot better
than your initial post in
this thread.

The way I see it is if Pitt
can beat NC ST (a very
good team) in an away
game, they could pull
some upsets. However
the Vandy game also
tells us a lot about this
team. IMO it was similar
talent, with maybe an
edge to Pitt. We should
have won. Instead we
regressed. Hell last year
we knocked off a national
finalist, UNC. This is what
Capel's teams did, still do,
and probably will continue
to do. IMO, we should be
competitive against the
BC's, Louisville's, and FSU's.
Win all of those, and get
splits with the likes of
Miami and others? 13-7?
No possible way. Another
poster suggested 10-10.
I'd be elated with that.
BTW, Lyke would also be
elated with that. So much
so, Capel would remain
as Pitt's coach.

I think most P5 teams would be happy with winning 2 of 3 road games in a row v. Nwestern, NC State and Vandy. Sure, should've won Vandy, but it's a road SEC game. Vandy was inferior, but they made some big-time shots down the stretch. Pitt would inch, and they'd match it.

Capel should've lightened up on the non-conference foes. Not too many teams play WVU, Michigan, VCU, Vandy, N Western in the non-conference. I'm pretty sure Dixon never played this many P6 teams in the OOC ever.

Glad Pitt is battled tested, but you need to stack wins.

 

[Chescat]

I think most P5 teams would be happy with winning 2 of 3 road games in a row v. Nwestern, NC State and Vandy. Sure, should've won Vandy, but it's a road SEC game. Vandy was inferior, but they made some big-time shots down the stretch. Pitt would inch, and they'd match it.

Capel should've lightened up on the non-conference foes. Not too many teams play WVU, Michigan, VCU, Vandy, N Western in the non-conference. I'm pretty sure Dixon never played this many P6 teams in the OOC ever.

Glad Pitt is battled tested, but you need to stack wins.

Yeah, the "non-conference
foes" were a bit much for a
team like this years team.
However, the OP and this
thread are about our ACC
games. This is where Capel
will and should really be
measured. Two yeras ago
we beat Duke, last year it
was UNC. Given the way
those seasons ended, those
wins wer basically forgotten.
What is remembered is the
season as a whole, and they
were disastrous. The 10-10
posted by DC is a reasonable
expectation. Capel pulls
that off, and most people
including Lyke, would be
elated. Both elated and
SUPRISED.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

Yeah, the "non-conference
foes" were a bit much for a
team like this years team.
However, the OP and this
thread are about our ACC
games. This is where Capel
will and should really be
measured. Two yeras ago
we beat Duke, last year it
was UNC. Given the way
those seasons ended, those
wins wer basically forgotten.
What is remembered is the
season as a whole, and they
were disastrous. The 10-10
posted by DC is a reasonable
expectation. Capel pulls
that off, and most people
including Lyke, would be
elated. Both elated and
SUPRISED.

If there were pieces to build upon for next year, I’d agree. There won’t be much coming back.

 

[Chescat]

If there were pieces to build upon for next year, I’d agree. There won’t be much coming back.

Very true. The strength
of this year's team is the
backcourt and they won't
be back. What Capel has
to sell is his three decent
incoming recruits, and
another successful portal
gain. That's assuming he
has a 10-10 ACC record,
which is no given.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

So, SMF's actual prediction is 8-12 ACC regular season. That would mean 7-4 OOC + 8-12 ACC = 15-16 headed into ACC Tourney with almost no chance of finishing over 0.500. Bballinsider thinks it will be 7-4 OOC + 6-14 = 13-18. If the latter, Capel will be gone--with the former he might also be gone -- but probably more of a tossup call for by the AD.

I am still hoping for somehow there will be a 10-10 ACC record and a 17-14 regular season with an overall winning record no matter what happens in the ACC tourney.
That result would at last show the proper trajectory.

However, I see no way that that SMF's wishful thinking of 13-7 can happen. On the other hand, IMHO, I also don't see Insider's collapse happening either--too much senior leadership and too weak an ACC middle and bottom this season for it to happen this time; but, just my opinion.

The weak ACC will help Pitt this year, in spite of the warts. I still don't see Pitt getting above a 0.500 record overall. They invariably lose games they're supposed to win. And we don't know what team dynamics will happen as we enter the conference schedule. Who will step up, who will underachieve, will they be able to play good defense and rebound in order to at least be competitive?

 

[HailToPitt1985]

Yeah, the "non-conference
foes" were a bit much for a
team like this years team.
However, the OP and this
thread are about our ACC
games. This is where Capel
will and should really be
measured. Two yeras ago
we beat Duke, last year it
was UNC. Given the way
those seasons ended, those
wins wer basically forgotten.
What is remembered is the
season as a whole, and they
were disastrous. The 10-10
posted by DC is a reasonable
expectation. Capel pulls
that off, and most people
including Lyke, would be
elated. Both elated and
SUPRISED.

If Capel can pull of a 10-10 ACC record with this team, I'd be more than elated and surprised. I'd be overwhelmed.

 

[Drew1208]

I'm not sure what's going to happen.
My guess is he's here next year barring a total collapse.
Fede, Hinson, The Twins, 2 freshman guards with talent, then I'd imagine, 2 old transfer guards from the portal isn't a terrible thought to next year.
My hope would be that we have two pretty good years and somehow Capel wants to leave for some reason I can't define. That way everyone wins. Program not decimated, new coach, new energy.
That's all a super stretch. But whatever. Who knows what's going to happen

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

If there were pieces to build upon for next year, I’d agree. There won’t be much coming back.

Nobody has anything coming back anymore. They're all single season AAU teams now. Maybe she gives Capel one more year so that Miller doesn't look bad by only doing 1 year at Xavier.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I think most P5 teams would be happy with winning 2 of 3 road games in a row v. Nwestern, NC State and Vandy. Sure, should've won Vandy, but it's a road SEC game. Vandy was inferior, but they made some big-time shots down the stretch. Pitt would inch, and they'd match it.

Capel should've lightened up on the non-conference foes. Not too many teams play WVU, Michigan, VCU, Vandy, N Western in the non-conference. I'm pretty sure Dixon never played this many P6 teams in the OOC ever.

Glad Pitt is battled tested, but you need to stack wins.

It was way less noticeable because we won. But there was that year we beat St. Louis, Duquesne, Washington, Oklahoma State, and Duke OOC and lost to Dayton.

I'm sure there were similar years, but that's just one I thought of.

 

[TD_6082]

I would be shocked if 20 wins would be enough for this team to get a NCAA bid. I don't think that is going to cut it.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I would be shocked if 20 wins would be enough for this team to get a NCAA bid. I don't think that is going to cut it.

20-11, 13-7 may indeed not be enough.

 

[pittjas]

20-11, 13-7 may indeed not be enough.

True. If you remove all the good teams the ACC is only a 1 bid league.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

True. If you remove all the good teams the ACC is only a 1 bid league.

No. Remove the 3 blue bloods/almost blue bloods (ie UVa) who will make it every year, its a 12 team 1 bid league. Miami looking like they can get a 2nd bid

 

[pittjas]

No. Remove the 3 blue bloods/almost blue bloods (ie UVa) who will make it every year, its a 12 team 1 bid league. Miami looking like they can get a 2nd bid

Miami and Virginia Tech.

Then I’m sure one of Clemson/ND/Pitt/NC State/Wake will break out and make it too.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Miami and Virginia Tech.

Then I’m sure one of Clemson/ND/Pitt/NC State/Wake will break out and make it too.

Miami is going to have to beat Duke/UNC/UVa. I could see them going 23-8, 13-7 and being left out like Wake last year.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

Nobody has anything coming back anymore. They're all single season AAU teams now. Maybe she gives Capel one more year so that Miller doesn't look bad by only doing 1 year at Xavier.

Miller has a better job than Pitt.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

Miami is going to have to beat Duke/UNC/UVa. I could see them going 23-8, 13-7 and being left out like Wake last year.

UVA is a blue blood in the ACc. They’ve won it more than unc and Duke combined last 10 years with same amount of titles.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Miller has a better job than Pitt.

Yea but maybe he feels it would be easier to win at Pitt since the ACC is so weak. Besides UNC/UVa/Duke, anyone can walk in and win if they are a good coach. And even UNC/Duke aren't guarantees with their new coaches.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

Yea but maybe he feels it would be easier to win at Pitt since the ACC is so weak. Besides UNC/UVa/Duke, anyone can walk in and win if they are a good coach. And even UNC/Duke aren't guarantees with their new coaches.

But he’s not a good coach and Pitt is like the 10th best job in the ACC as opposites to one of the better big East job. Big East can get 7/10 teams in

 

[rockypanther]

So, SMF's actual prediction is 8-12 ACC regular season. That would mean 7-4 OOC + 8-12 ACC = 15-16 headed into ACC Tourney with almost no chance of finishing over 0.500. Bballinsider thinks it will be 7-4 OOC + 6-14 = 13-18. If the latter, Capel will be gone--with the former he might also be gone -- but probably more of a tossup call for by the AD.

I am still hoping for somehow there will be a 10-10 ACC record and a 17-14 regular season with an overall winning record no matter what happens in the ACC tourney.
That result would at last show the proper trajectory.

However, I see no way that that SMF's wishful thinking of 13-7 can happen. On the other hand, IMHO, I also don't see Insider's collapse happening either--too much senior leadership and too weak an ACC middle and bottom this season for it to happen this time; but, just my opinion.

With Capel who knows. I am not optimistic of anything he does as a coach let alone win games he is supposed to win.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

With Capel who knows. I am not optimistic of anything he does as a coach let alone win games he is supposed to win.

!!!

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I think most P5 teams would be happy with winning 2 of 3 road games in a row v. Nwestern, NC State and Vandy.

Not the good ones.

I guess that's the difference between us and a good program/team. We're happy to win two of three against middling competition, whereas at a good program they'd be unhappy that they didn't win all three.