Playoff hypotheticals

[HailtoPitt]

Humor me.

Suppose that both USC and TCU lose their conference championships game. That means OSU and Bama get into the playoffs. With Georgia ranked #1 and Michigan #2, would the selection committee select OSU for the third spot, meaning they would square off with Michigan again, while Bama plays against Georgia? There are a number of scenarios were this seems possible... but would the selection committee allow it, or do you think they would manipulate the rankings for the matchups, even if it meant ranking the teams out of obvious order?

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Georgia, Michigan, and TCU* are in win lose or draw. It's between USC and Ohio State at this point.








*If TCU somehow manages to lose by 130, then they might not be in.

 

[HailtoPitt]

Georgia, Michigan, and TCU* are in win lose or draw. It's between USC and Ohio State at this point.








*If TCU somehow manages to lose by 130, then they might not be in.

TCU gets in if they lose? I'm kind of doubting that.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

TCU gets in if they lose? I'm kind of doubting that.

1) They've beat every team on their schedule (already beat Kansas State, who they play this Saturday).

2) Only two of those games were won by less than seven points.

3) They're playing an extra game AND having to beat a team twice. I don't see how you can penalize them for that and reward Ohio State or Alabama, who didn't even make it to that extra game.

4) Neither Ohio State nor Alabama has an overly-impressive wins resume. Ohio State's best wins are Penn State and 8-4 Notre Dame. Alabama's are the two 8-4 Mississippi schools and 8-4 Texas, which they beat by less points than TCU beat them by AND Texas was missing Ewers for most of the Alabama game.

5) If Kansas State does beat TCU, they become a top 10 team. That gives TCU one better win and one not-so-terrible loss.

Realistically, I think TCU just needs to keep it within ten points or so to be a shoe-in.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

I also doubt that TCU gets in if they lose. The “powers that be” would love a reason to exclude them. I don’t agree with it, btw. I just think they see better ratings and revenue to elevate one of “the regulars”. They’d particularly love an OSU/Mich sequel.

 

[HailtoPitt]

1) They've beat every team on their schedule (already beat Kansas State, who they play this Saturday).

2) Only two of those games were won by less than seven points.

3) They're playing an extra game AND having to beat a team twice. I don't see how you can penalize them for that and reward Ohio State or Alabama, who didn't even make it to that extra game.

4) Neither Ohio State nor Alabama has an overly-impressive wins resume. Ohio State's best wins are Penn State and 8-4 Notre Dame. Alabama's are the two 8-4 Mississippi schools and 8-4 Texas, which they beat by less points than TCU beat them by AND Texas was missing Ewers for most of the Alabama game.

5) If Kansas State does beat TCU, they become a top 10 team. That gives TCU one better win and one not-so-terrible loss.

Realistically, I think TCU just needs to keep it within ten points or so to be a shoe-in.

While TCU might be one of the four deserving teams even after a loss, the committee will not select them. They will give OSU the first spot and if USC were to also lose, then Bama would get the next spot. The committee will rank them 5th, however, just to make it seem like they are being impartial.

 

[YourPittDanceTeam]

Georgia, Michigan, and TCU* are in win lose or draw. It's between USC and Ohio State at this point.








*If TCU somehow manages to lose by 130, then they might not be in.

If TCU loses to Kansas State then they should be dropped out of the final four. No question.

 

[Burgh15]

I think it would have to depend on how well Georgia and Michigan play next week. If Michigan wins by 30 points and Georgia wins by 7-10, I could see Michigan jumping them in the polls giving us a Michigan-Alabama and Georgia-Ohio State game.

The most interesting thing is whether the committee ranks a two-loss Alabama team over a one-loss Ohio State team who just got blown out at home. I think in the end the goal is to find the best team in the nation and if they played head-to-head tomorrow, who would be favored? I think Alabama would and should be ranked No. 5.

 

[Pitt1975]

All the talking heads on ESPNU say TCU is in, win or lose or draw.
It’s Ohio state sitting out there. Alabama has 2 loses.

 

[HailtoPitt]

I think it would have to depend on how well Georgia and Michigan play next week. If Michigan wins by 30 points and Georgia wins by 7-10, I could see Michigan jumping them in the polls giving us a Michigan-Alabama and Georgia-Ohio State game.

The most interesting thing is whether the committee ranks a two-loss Alabama team over a one-loss Ohio State team who just got blown out at home. I think in the end the goal is to find the best team in the nation and if they played head-to-head tomorrow, who would be favored? I think Alabama would and should be ranked No. 5.

I just wonder if it's more important for them to rank based on matchups, instead of where they think a team belongs. Or would they completely ignore the matchups?

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

All the talking heads on ESPNU say TCU is in, win or lose or draw.
It’s Ohio state sitting out there. Alabama has 2 loses.

If that is true then they must truly wish to include an outlier every year such as with Cincinnati…avoid some legal hassles down the line if the schools that end up breaking away would get charged with collusion

 

[Mufasa94]

1) They've beat every team on their schedule (already beat Kansas State, who they play this Saturday).

So? They’d still have a loss to be considered against similar 1-loss teams.

2) Only two of those games were won by less than seven points.

“Less” than seven points, when has that ever been considered? It is 7 or less, and TCU has 4 of them (not that anything is wrong with it, but the effort to use less deserves pointing out).

3) They're playing an extra game AND having to beat a team twice. I don't see how you can penalize them for that and reward Ohio State or Alabama, who didn't even make it to that extra game.

Wisconsin was similarly “penalized” in 2017. If the game is played, it has to be counted and considered.

4) Neither Ohio State nor Alabama has an overly-impressive wins resume. Ohio State's best wins are Penn State and 8-4 Notre Dame. Alabama's are the two 8-4 Mississippi schools and 8-4 Texas, which they beat by less points than TCU beat them by AND Texas was missing Ewers for most of the Alabama game.

5) If Kansas State does beat TCU, they become a top 10 team. That gives TCU one better win and one not-so-terrible loss.

What do you mean by one better win?

tOSU would have wins over 2-loss top 10 team and 4-loss ranked team. TCU would have wins over 3-loss top 10 team and 4-loss ranked team.

tOSU would have lost to 0-loss team. TCU will have lost to 3-loss team.

Realistically, I think TCU just needs to keep it within ten points or so to be a shoe-in.

If TCU loses, they should hope USC had lost the night before, and TCU remains one of the four 0/1 loss teams. CFP committee has used number of losses as the top factor for P5 teams, which I agree with. They shouldn’t alter their method.

 

[TD_6082]

If TCU loses to Kansas State then they should be dropped out of the final four. No question.

Just curious, would you feel that way if TCU lost a last second FG, or some similar scenario?

 

[YourPittDanceTeam]

Just curious, would you feel that way if TCU lost a last second FG, or some similar scenario?

Yes.

 

[Tomster6758]

Top 3 are in USC wins they are in if not Ohio st get in.

 

[Phillypanther2]

1) They've beat every team on their schedule (already beat Kansas State, who they play this Saturday).

2) Only two of those games were won by less than seven points.

3) They're playing an extra game AND having to beat a team twice. I don't see how you can penalize them for that and reward Ohio State or Alabama, who didn't even make it to that extra game.

4) Neither Ohio State nor Alabama has an overly-impressive wins resume. Ohio State's best wins are Penn State and 8-4 Notre Dame. Alabama's are the two 8-4 Mississippi schools and 8-4 Texas, which they beat by less points than TCU beat them by AND Texas was missing Ewers for most of the Alabama game.

5) If Kansas State does beat TCU, they become a top 10 team. That gives TCU one better win and one not-so-terrible loss.

Realistically, I think TCU just needs to keep it within ten points or so to be a shoe-in.

I was doubting that TCU gets in if they lose, but you make a good case. If they lose and it’s close they will probably get in and deserve to get in.
If USC loses, who gets the other spot?

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I was doubting that TCU gets in if they lose, but you make a good case. If they lose and it’s close they will probably get in and deserve to get in.
If USC loses, who gets the other spot?

I definitely don't think they're better than Alabama or Ohio State (though I also don't think the difference is as drastic as some have suggested), but if you take away the names on all three and look strictly at resumes, I think they've done enough (well, more specifically, I just don't think the other two have done enough).

As for who would get in if USC loses... I think they do their weekly rankings on Tuesdays, right? So I guess it would be whomever is higher between Alabama and Ohio State. Unless something crazy happened where like Ohio State was ahead tonight but then LSU beat Georgia (increasing Alabama's SOS) and Purdue beat Michigan (decreasing Ohio State's SOS). But that's probably not worth even straining a single brain cell to think about, ha.

 

[Phillypanther2]

I definitely don't think they're better than Alabama or Ohio State (though I also don't think the difference is as drastic as some have suggested), but if you take away the names on all three and look strictly at resumes, I think they've done enough (well, more specifically, I just don't think the other two have done enough).

As for who would get in if USC loses... I think they do their weekly rankings on Tuesdays, right? So I guess it would be whomever is higher between Alabama and Ohio State. Unless something crazy happened where like Ohio State was ahead tonight but then LSU beat Georgia (increasing Alabama's SOS) and Purdue beat Michigan (decreasing Ohio State's SOS). But that's probably not worth even straining a single brain cell to think about, ha.

After the way OSU got thumped at home by Michigan in their final game, I would hate for OSU to somehow get in.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

After the way OSU got thumped at home by Michigan in their final game, I would hate for OSU to somehow get in.

Yeah, I would tend to agree with that. Tough to justify their inclusion when we just saw what they did against a playoff team recently, and the score was that lopsided. I do think the game was a little fluky, but still.

 

[upj87]

If TCU loses to Kansas State then they should be dropped out of the final four. No question.

plenty of question...Werewolf above gave a detailed persuasive explanation as to why they should...you spat out a sentence with nothing to back it up....

 

[Pitt79]

I also doubt that TCU gets in if they lose. The “powers that be” would love a reason to exclude them. I don’t agree with it, btw. I just think they see better ratings and revenue to elevate one of “the regulars”. They’d particularly love an OSU/Mich sequel.

I agree with you. This is why I haven't watched the FBS playoffs in about 8 years. I really don't care, it's always teams that I hate and it's always a contrived soap opera of trying to find reasons to get the same teams in every year and exclude anyone different. I don't care if they are the "best" I'd rather watch the NFL, Pitt's bowl game or the FCS playoffs.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

So? They’d still have a loss to be considered against similar 1-loss teams.

“Less” than seven points, when has that ever been considered? It is 7 or less, and TCU has 4 of them (not that anything is wrong with it, but the effort to use less deserves pointing out).

Wisconsin was similarly “penalized” in 2017. If the game is played, it has to be counted and considered.

What do you mean by one better win?

tOSU would have wins over 2-loss top 10 team and 4-loss ranked team. TCU would have wins over 3-loss top 10 team and 4-loss ranked team.

tOSU would have lost to 0-loss team. TCU will have lost to 3-loss team.

If TCU loses, they should hope USC had lost the night before, and TCU remains one of the four 0/1 loss teams. CFP committee has used number of losses as the top factor for P5 teams, which I agree with. They shouldn’t alter their method.

TCU #3. Ohio State #4. Whomp, whomp, whomp.

 

[Tomster6758]

Top 3 are in USC wins they are in if not Ohio st get in.

What this guy said.

 

[HailtoPitt]

At least we will have the satisfaction of watching OSU get an ass whopping against Georgia.

 

[HailtoPitt]

What this guy said.

I don't think TCU would have gotten in if their game didn't go down to the wire in OT, which included coaching stupidity.

 

[pittdan77]

I don't think TCU would have gotten in if their game didn't go down to the wire in OT, which included coaching stupidity.

The committee has never let a two loss team into the CFP. There were only four with one loss or less. I will say that they have at least been consistent. Will be interesting to see how they shift criteria with the expanded playoff.

 

[Pitt79]

At least we will have the satisfaction of watching OSU get an ass whopping against Georgia.

Not me, I always root against the SEC no matter who they play.