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Playoff Prediction?

Oct 25, 2021
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I think things get really interesting if Georgia beats Tennessee and goes undefeated, while it's Tennessee's only loss... then Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship. Then you have 11-1 Tennessee, 12-1 Alabama, and 12-1 Georgia. I doubt that will happen, because these obscure hypotheticals always seem to sort themselves out (Tennessee could lose this week to Kentucky, for instance), but it's certainly an interesting concept. They would all basically be 1-1 in the round robin format. Although, in addition to making the conference championship, I guess you would assign more points to Alabama for beating Texas OOC and Georgia for beating Oregon OOC than Tennessee for beating Pitt OOC.

Are Ohio State and Michigan both in if the only loss between the two comes to the other? I think it's a maybe if Ohio State loses but probably not for Michigan, as their OOC schedule looked like IUP's.

TCU is 7-0 with WVU, Texas Tech, Texas, Baylor, and Iowa State left... plus the Big 12 championship game, if they get there. Are they a threat? I'm thinking they have at least two losses remaining.

And then there's Clemson: Can anybody beat them? And if they do win out (say the beat a 9-3 UNC team in the ACC Championship), does a 13-0 Clemson get in over an 11-1 Tennessee team above? Wake would be their marquee win, assuming Wake keeps winning.

I'm sure it will be obvious by the time it's all said and done, but things could get interesting as they stand now.
 
It will be a playoff like the world has never seen before.

Georgia even with a loss in the championship.
Clemson unless they lose to a barely if at all ranked 2 or 3-loss UNC in Championship.
1-loss Tennessee or 1-loss Bama
Ohio State/Michigan winner

ohh wait...
 
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I find it funny how they say this kind of playoff makes the regular season matter more, when 99% of the games have no bearing on the playoffs. If the same certain teams get a "close enough" result they are always in, period.
Amen.
 
It will be a playoff like the world has never seen before.

Georgia even with a loss in the championship.
Clemson unless they lose to a barely if at all ranked 2 or 3-loss UNC in Championship.
1-loss Tennessee or 1-loss Bama
Ohio State/Michigan winner

ohh wait...
Are you saying it will be Alabama, Georgia, Ohio St, and Clemson?
That’s insane 😄😄
 
I find it funny how they say this kind of playoff makes the regular season matter more, when 99% of the games have no bearing on the playoffs. If the same certain teams get a "close enough" result they are always in, period.
Wait til it goes to 12 then 16
 
First, a 13-0 Clemson gets in without question.

The SEC Champ gets in along with one other SEC team that has one loss.

Big Ten Champ (OSU or Michigan).

The fourth team will be a one loss program and it will be debatable.
 
First, a 13-0 Clemson gets in without question.

The SEC Champ gets in along with one other SEC team that has one loss.

Big Ten Champ (OSU or Michigan).

The fourth team will be a one loss program and it will be debatable.

You have your 4 there. But are you taking a 13-0 Clemson over an 11-1 Tennessee team with a close loss to Georgia?

Doubt it will shake out that way anyway.
 
You have your 4 there. But are you taking a 13-0 Clemson over an 11-1 Tennessee team with a close loss to Georgia?

Doubt it will shake out that way anyway.

There is no question in my mind that a 13-0 Clemson gets in ever if they win all of their remaining games in OT. Likely a good one loss team will be left out. That's how it goes I guess.
 
I find it funny how they say this kind of playoff makes the regular season matter more, when 99% of the games have no bearing on the playoffs. If the same certain teams get a "close enough" result they are always in, period.
Well here's the thing. People will say, "well if you expand the playoffs, then the Tennessee/Georgia game would lose importance!" And they would be right. But you know what else?

Any game involving a top 12-15 game now GAINS importance. TCU at WVU gains importance. PSU/OSU already is "important", but now even moreso. The shortsighted just looks at the games involving the very top 5-6 teams and how it affects playoffs. Expanded playoffs means top teams throughout all conference games gain importance.
 
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Well here's the thing. People will say, "well if you expand the playoffs, then the Tennessee/Georgia game would lose importance!" And they would be right. But you know what else?

Any game involving a top 12-15 game now GAINS importance. TCU at WVU gains importance. PSU/OSU already is "important", but now even moreso. The shortsighted just looks at the games involving the very top 5-6 teams and how it affects playoffs. Expanded playoffs means top teams throughout all conference games gain importance.

This is true, and also more likely that Pitt plays in an important game that can boost them into the playoffs. With the current system, only a 13-0 Pitt team gets in.
 
There is no question in my mind that a 13-0 Clemson gets in ever if they win all of their remaining games in OT. Likely a good one loss team will be left out. That's how it goes I guess.

I don't think that's a slam dunk at all. Tennessee would have wins at Pitt, at LSU, against Alabama, against Kentucky, etc. And it's possible that Clemson doesn't have a single win against a team that finishes ranked with NC State, Notre Dame, and Miami all being mostly terrible (although Wake and/or UNC probably finish ranked).

I do believe they've mentioned wanting to reward conference winners in the past, so you're more than likely right. But I think the style points from here on out might matter.
 
I don't think that's a slam dunk at all. Tennessee would have wins at Pitt, at LSU, against Alabama, against Kentucky, etc. And it's possible that Clemson doesn't have a single win against a team that finishes ranked with NC State, Notre Dame, and Miami all being mostly terrible (although Wake and/or UNC probably finish ranked).

It doesn't matter. They're Clemson and a 13-0 Clemson gets into a 4 team playoff unless the champs from the SEC, Big Ten, Pac 10, and Oklahoma/Texas all would go undefeated.
 
I don't think that's a slam dunk at all. Tennessee would have wins at Pitt, at LSU, against Alabama, against Kentucky, etc. And it's possible that Clemson doesn't have a single win against a team that finishes ranked with NC State, Notre Dame, and Miami all being mostly terrible (although Wake and/or UNC probably finish ranked).

I do believe they've mentioned wanting to reward conference winners in the past, so you're more than likely right. But I think the style points from here on out might matter.
And that's why the current system sucks, you can be unbeaten in a P5 conference and the optometrist's exam can put a team with losses in over you.
 
I find it funny how they say this kind of playoff makes the regular season matter more, when 99% of the games have no bearing on the playoffs.
It’s whether the impact of a win or loss in a game affects your ability to play for the title is what “they” are talking about.

Even 2 weeks ago, when Bama lost to the Vols, they lost control of their own fate at the time. UCLA losing this past weekend enables Bama to completely control their fate once again.
 
I don't think that's a slam dunk at all. Tennessee would have wins at Pitt, at LSU, against Alabama, against Kentucky, etc. And it's possible that Clemson doesn't have a single win against a team that finishes ranked with NC State, Notre Dame, and Miami all being mostly terrible (although Wake and/or UNC probably finish ranked).

I do believe they've mentioned wanting to reward conference winners in the past, so you're more than likely right. But I think the style points from here on out might matter.
It's for sure a slam dunk. A one loss TN who doesn't make their conference championship isn't getting in over a 13-0 Clemson team.
 
It's for sure a slam dunk. A one loss TN who doesn't make their conference championship isn't getting in over a 13-0 Clemson team.
I don't see anyone mentioning TCU in this conversation. I was watching an ESPN panel discussion a couple days ago and the majority of the individuals on the panel agreed that if the last playoff spot came down to an undefeated Clemson and an undefeated TCU; that TCU would get in over Clemson because the Big 12 has been better top to bottom than the ACC this year and TCU would jump Clemson in the standings by year end.

Most agreed that Clemson is more likely to finish the season undefeated, which would make the conversation irrelevant; but most also seemed to think TCU will be favored in all their remaining games and their finishing the season undefeated isn't a crazy proposition.
 
I don't see anyone mentioning TCU in this conversation. I was watching an ESPN panel discussion a couple days ago and the majority of the individuals on the panel agreed that if the last playoff spot came down to an undefeated Clemson and an undefeated TCU; that TCU would get in over Clemson because the Big 12 has been better top to bottom than the ACC this year and TCU would jump Clemson in the standings by year end.

Most agreed that Clemson is more likely to finish the season undefeated, which would make the conversation irrelevant; but most also seemed to think TCU will be favored in all their remaining games and their finishing the season undefeated isn't a crazy proposition.

I agree that would be the case. However, TCU isn't going undefeated. They might lose in Morgantown Saturday.
 
It’s whether the impact of a win or loss in a game affects your ability to play for the title is what “they” are talking about.

Even 2 weeks ago, when Bama lost to the Vols, they lost control of their own fate at the time. UCLA losing this past weekend enables Bama to completely control their fate once again.
Very few teams are involved, so a low % of the regular season is meaningful. If you have 16 teams with automatic conference champ qualifiers dozens of games become meaningful to the playoff race.
 
Very few teams are involved, so a low % of the regular season is meaningful. If you have 16 teams with automatic conference champ qualifiers dozens of games become meaningful to the playoff race.

We get what they mean by it, though. Two losses at the most (sometimes even one), and you're done. Whereas you could lose two or three if there were 16 teams.
 
I don't see anyone mentioning TCU in this conversation. I was watching an ESPN panel discussion a couple days ago and the majority of the individuals on the panel agreed that if the last playoff spot came down to an undefeated Clemson and an undefeated TCU; that TCU would get in over Clemson because the Big 12 has been better top to bottom than the ACC this year and TCU would jump Clemson in the standings by year end.

Most agreed that Clemson is more likely to finish the season undefeated, which would make the conversation irrelevant; but most also seemed to think TCU will be favored in all their remaining games and their finishing the season undefeated isn't a crazy proposition.
TCU has had a harder schedule up to this point and is ranked below Clemson on most charts. The remaining schedules for both teams will be comparable considering Clemson will play a Championship game and TCU will not.

None of the teams on TCU's remaining schedule will likely finish the season ranked. Will that be enough to overcome a higher ranked Clemson + Championship game? I don't think so.

The average rank of future opponents using Massey Composite.
TCU's final 5 games average rank - 41st
Clemson's final 5 games (including UNC at current ranking) - 45th

If the voters took their first and only vote after championship weekend, then I'd see TCU maybe getting the nod. But if the poll comes out next week and Clemson is ranked above TCU then the discussion is likely over if both teams win out.
 
TCU has had a harder schedule up to this point and is ranked below Clemson on most charts. The remaining schedules for both teams will be comparable considering Clemson will play a Championship game and TCU will not.

None of the teams on TCU's remaining schedule will likely finish the season ranked. Will that be enough to overcome a higher ranked Clemson + Championship game? I don't think so.

The average rank of future opponents using Massey Composite.
TCU's final 5 games average rank - 41st
Clemson's final 5 games (including UNC at current ranking) - 45th

If the voters took their first and only vote after championship weekend, then I'd see TCU maybe getting the nod. But if the poll comes out next week and Clemson is ranked above TCU then the discussion is likely over if both teams win out.

The Big 12 has a championship game. If it pitted them against Oklahoma State again, things could even out a bit. Depending on what Oklahoma State does the final quarter of the season.
 
The Big 12 has a championship game. If it pitted them against Oklahoma State again, things could even out a bit. Depending on what Oklahoma State does the final quarter of the season.
Why did I think they got rid of it this year?

Then I'm changing my entire argument. Whoever beats the higher ranked team in their Championship Game will get the spot.
 
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This is true, and also more likely that Pitt plays in an important game that can boost them into the playoffs. With the current system, only a 13-0 Pitt team gets in.
General point aside, I actually wonder if we would have gotten in at 12-1 over Cincinnati last year. We had the (somewhat) better statistical strength of schedule though they had the highest quality win (ND). Both were conference champs. Ultimately ended up being irrelevant due to the 2nd loss but it does make me wonder how that would have played out since neither team is a perennial power, and they were "G5".
 
Any game involving a top 12-15 game now GAINS importance. TCU at WVU gains importance. PSU/OSU already is "important", but now even moreso.
Explain how TCU-WVU gains importance with an expanded format? Right now it is extremely important for TCU to win. In expanded, TCU can easily lose this game and likely another and still be in the running. Similar with PSU/tOSU. It is basically elimination game for PSU now, and could put serious hurt on tOSU. How would expanded make it moreso important?
The shortsighted just looks at the games involving the very top 5-6 teams and how it affects playoffs. Expanded playoffs means top teams throughout all conference games gain importance.
Rewarding the truly successful teams isn't shortsighted. It just doesn't appease the participation trophy loving masses that control things now. Hey, good also ran, here's a participation invite to you, same to the 3-4 loss winner from a lousy conference.

As long as the masses can keep that hope that their team can be champion through November/December.
 
Very few teams are involved, so a low % of the regular season is meaningful. If you have 16 teams with automatic conference champ qualifiers dozens of games become meaningful to the playoff race.
In regards to the CFP, September was very meaningful for Pitt. September and possibly only October for PSU. Similar can be said for all the teams that don't make the CFP.
 
If it goes to 12 or 16 with automatic bids for conference champs, then the regular season will matter for the first times, dozens of teams will still be in the hunt at the start of November.
Ya or will the Ohio St Michigan really matter if both teams are going to the playoff. Same With Georgia Alabama Georgia Tennesee Tennesee Alabama Tennesee Georgia Oregon USC etc etc etc..
 
As long as the masses can keep that hope that their team can be champion through November/December.
Absolutely, that makes the whole thing WAY WAY WAY WAY WAY more interesting, than just accept ALL BAMA, tOSU, Clemson, Georgia, ND ... ALL THE TIME FOREVER AND EVER AND EVER
 
Ya or will the Ohio St Michigan really matter if both teams are going to the playoff. Same With Georgia Alabama Georgia Tennesee Tennesee Alabama Tennesee Georgia Oregon USC etc etc etc..
So WHO CARES if those games matter less, if a COUPLE DOZEN other games matter instead? I'd rather see tOSU vs Michigan made meaningless and Pitt vs Miami matter instead.
 
So WHO CARES if those games matter less, if a COUPLE DOZEN other games matter instead? I'd rather see tOSU vs Michigan made meaningless and Pitt vs Miami matter instead.

Pitt vs Miami matters... loser gets to stay out of the basement, unlike Norman Bates' mother.
 
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