Please explain NET rankings

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Sure hope that they don't have a metric like Pomeroy in front of them given they have teams like 10-13 Washington State from the PAC12, who I think is rated right around the ACC and Sam Houston State, whose in 5th place in the WAC, ahead of Pitt.

Hard to make much sense out of these computer ratings, but like you said, efficiency over outcomes, I suppose...

They absolutely have the Pomeroy rankings on the team sheets.

And the reason why is that they give a pretty good (not perfect) indication of how good a team actually is. Compare what Pomeroy is predicting with what the Vegas lines are for games. In most cases, especially when there isn't injuries involved, they are going to be nearly the same.

For example, look at tonight's ACC games. Clemson is favored by 4.5 over BC, Pomeroy has it Clemson by 6. Vegas has Duke by 8 over Wake, and Pomeroy has it exactly the same. Vegas has Miami by 3.5, Pomeroy has Miami by 4. Or if you want, look at some of the other games tonight. Vegas has Alabama by 15.5, Pomeroy has them by 16. Vegas has UConn by 11, Pomeroy has them by 12. Vegas has Kansas by 8.5 over Kansas State, Pomeroy has them by 10. Vegas has Maryland over Indiana by 3, Pomeroy has it at 2.

The NCAA doesn't want to come right out and ask the people in Vegas for their rankings of the teams, so instead they use other metrics like Pomeroy and Sagarin that use similar rating systems.

In our specific case, what that tells you is that if we were playing Washington State or Sam Houston State on a neutral court the game would be right around a toss up.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

They absolutely have the Pomeroy rankings on the team sheets.

And the reason why is that they give a pretty good (not perfect) indication of how good a team actually is. Compare what Pomeroy is predicting with what the Vegas lines are for games. In most cases, especially when there isn't injuries involved, they are going to be nearly the same.

For example, look at tonight's ACC games. Clemson is favored by 4.5 over BC, Pomeroy has it Clemson by 6. Vegas has Duke by 8 over Wake, and Pomeroy has it exactly the same. Vegas has Miami by 3.5, Pomeroy has Miami by 4. Or if you want, look at some of the other games tonight. Vegas has Alabama by 15.5, Pomeroy has them by 16. Vegas has UConn by 11, Pomeroy has them by 12. Vegas has Kansas by 8.5 over Kansas State, Pomeroy has them by 10. Vegas has Maryland over Indiana by 3, Pomeroy has it at 2.

The NCAA doesn't want to come right out and ask the people in Vegas for their rankings of the teams, so instead they use other metrics like Pomeroy and Sagarin that use similar rating systems.

In our specific case, what that tells you is that if we were playing Washington State or Sam Houston State on a neutral court the game would be right around a toss up.

Correct. They do use "Vegas metrics" but part of that is built into NET. We complain about how low Pitt is ranked in these metrics but its honestly because they arent THAT good. They semi-miraculously won 3 home games with big 2nd Half comebacks in 1 possession games vs good teams. They could very very easily be 12-10 and lucky to make the NIT. They also could have beaten VCU and Vandy and been 17-5 but if you are looking at Vegas metrics, they just arent that good. Luckily though, these are a 3rd tier criteria.

 

[FireballZ]

They absolutely have the Pomeroy rankings on the team sheets.

And the reason why is that they give a pretty good (not perfect) indication of how good a team actually is. Compare what Pomeroy is predicting with what the Vegas lines are for games. In most cases, especially when there isn't injuries involved, they are going to be nearly the same.

For example, look at tonight's ACC games. Clemson is favored by 4.5 over BC, Pomeroy has it Clemson by 6. Vegas has Duke by 8 over Wake, and Pomeroy has it exactly the same. Vegas has Miami by 3.5, Pomeroy has Miami by 4. Or if you want, look at some of the other games tonight. Vegas has Alabama by 15.5, Pomeroy has them by 16. Vegas has UConn by 11, Pomeroy has them by 12. Vegas has Kansas by 8.5 over Kansas State, Pomeroy has them by 10. Vegas has Maryland over Indiana by 3, Pomeroy has it at 2.

The NCAA doesn't want to come right out and ask the people in Vegas for their rankings of the teams, so instead they use other metrics like Pomeroy and Sagarin that use similar rating systems.

In our specific case, what that tells you is that if we were playing Washington State or Sam Houston State on a neutral court the game would be right around a toss up.

I gotcha that these efficiency ratings often correlate to the Vegas lines - mind helping me out how you got there? How do you come up with Clemon -6 via Pomeroy, for example? Clemson has an Adj EM of 12.5 and BC is a -1.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I gotcha that these efficiency ratings often correlate to the Vegas lines - mind helping me out how you got there? How do you come up with Clemon -6 via Pomeroy, for example? Clemson has an Adj EM of 12.5 and BC is a -1.

I'm looking at his team pages. On the Clemson page he is predicting a Clemson win by 71-65, with Clemson having a 70% chance to win.

I don't know his exact formula, but he says that he gets the game predictions from the current efficiencies, tempo and home court. So he isn't just comparing their overall ratings, he's comparing Clemson's offense to BC's defense and vise versa.

 

[docpanther26]

Amazing that Wake lost another 2 point game and somehow BC beats Clemson. Didn’t see the game but didn’t expect Clemson to drop this one.

 

[4Mark_Marty]

Amazing that Wake lost another 2 point game and somehow BC beats Clemson. Didn’t see the game but didn’t expect Clemson to drop this one.

Clemson missed their last 18 shots in the game. That’s almost impossible.

 

[CJsE]

Clemson missed their last 18 shots in the game. That’s almost impossible.

Clemson did not miss their last 18 shots.

Edit: They might have missed 17-18 in a row, but they made their last two.

 

[4Mark_Marty]

Clemson did not miss their last 18 shots.

Edit: They might have missed 17-18 in a row, but they made their last two.

I stand corrected

 

[CJsE]

I stand corrected

Yeah I had it on in the background and remember them making a bunch of shots during their comeback, but all the shots I was thinking about were free throws, except the last 2.

Still a ridiculous stat to miss that many shots in a row. The crazier thing is that they actually narrowed the lead during that miss streak. 12 minutes with 0 field goals and narrow the deficit from 6 points to 3 until they had to start fouling in the final minute.