I thought I’d take a stab at predicting the ACC. I’ve made my way through at least two ACC preview podcasts and two articles for each team, and this is where I see things shaking out. With 14 teams, there’s no chance I’ll get this all right, obviously, but I thought it would be fun anyway. Jump in with your own thoughts and tell me where I am wrong. Overall, I think the ACC is going to be pretty good this year.
With so many COVID Super Seniors back, the quality of college football across the board is going to be through the roof. On the flip side, because everyone has so much coming back, experience will probably have less impact on the win-loss column than it usually does, despite improving overall quality. My guess is that the ACC will have 5, maybe 6, teams ranked in the final regular season Top 25 polls and that Pitt will be right in the mix like we were in 2015 and 2016. With 13 teams returning a QB with at least some starting experience, this is probably the strongest the ACC has been since 2016 when we had 5 teams ranked in the final Top 25. My guess is Clemson, UNC, Miami, BC, NC State, and possibly us (Pitt) will be ranked in the final top 25. On the other end, I think Syracuse and Duke are going to be downright awful, and Georgia Tech, despite having some high-quality talent, will be very lucky to find a 4th win.
Here's what I see for each ACC team. Except for Georgia Tech, Duke, and Syracuse, I’ve listed the losses instead of the wins to keep things simpler. I’m only predicting the regular season records. Rankings are preseason AP.
Coastal
1. #10 UNC: 10-2 (7-1) – Losses: #9 Notre Dame and at NC State. Sam Howell is the best QB in the ACC and one of the best in the Country. Everyone correctly points to the loss of skill position talent from last year’s team, but Brown has been lights out on the recruiting trail with back-to-back top 15 classes and some key transfers. I do think they will take a step back at the skill positions, but those are generally positions where kids can contribute early. David Hale says UNC has the best QB, second best running game, and third best pass catchers this season. I'm not sure I'm quite that high on them, but they'll still be good. Their CBs are legit and on paper at least, the defense should be pretty good. I recently rewatched most of the UNC vs. Texas A&M bowl game on ESPN, and UNC’s defense played quite well. I expect that they will start the year close to where they left off on defense. Despite predicting a 10-2 season, 8-4 wouldn’t shock me either, if the defense fails to improve, given what they lost on offense.
2. #14 Miami: 10-2 (7-1) – Losses: #1 Alabama and at #10 UNC. I know, I know, it’s Miami and they always faceplant, and I am assuming King is back to 100%, but I think it’s possible this Miami team is being underrated. Despite what I said about everyone having a lot of returning production, this team returns even more than most - virtually everyone on the two deep from a pretty good team returns. There’s always been tons of talent on this roster, but it rarely comes together. Outside of getting smashed by Alabama, though, they have a soft schedule (hardest games are at UNC, at Pitt, and home against NC State) and as we sit here today, it’s hard to see more than 2 losses. The offense should be lights out again and Diaz is taking over the defensive play calling, where he excels. This feels like a team with a 9-3 floor.
3. UVA: 8-4 (5-3) – Losses: at #10 UNC, at #14 Miami, #9 Notre Dame, at Pitt. UVA is not going to be very good, and with the exception of beating VT at home, I think they lose every game against a team with a winning record. Fortunately for UVA, they benefit from playing weak crossover opponents in Louisville and Wake so they slide ahead of Pitt in the ACC standings despite losing to us and having a worse overall record. UVA has been extremely good at home under Mendenhall, something like 17-3 in their last 20 home games, but they’re awful on the road. QB Brennan Armstrong (Hale's #7 QB) is back, but he's not a difference maker, and UVA doesn't have very good WR (Hale's #11) and still won't be able to run the ball (Hale's #10) - despite having probably one of the best OLs in the ACC (Hale ranked UVA's OL #1). Their defense lost a lot and their DBs are expected to be pretty bad, but they play mistake free football and their unorthodox 3-4 gives opposing teams fits.
4. Virginia Tech: 7-5 (4-4) – Losses: #10 UNC, #9 Notre Dame, at #14 Miami, at BC, and at UVA. I don’t think VT is going to be very good, but their schedule is manageable. I expect them to lose to the best teams they play, except for us, unfortunately. Fuente is an ass and I hope he stays at VT for as long as possible, because they’re never going to be very good while he’s there. They have no identity on offense or defense, their locker room is a mess, and their recruiting has fallen off a cliff (#85 class in 2020, #44 in 2021). Outside of PSU, VT has the best fanbase and gameday in the Mid-Atlantic and Fuente is completely squandering it. The defense will probably show some improvement, and they have some talent at each level (except maybe LB), but very little depth. Their QB has "Olympic speed" but it's not clear whether Burmeister can actually pass the ball, which is too bad, because their pass catchers are likely the best in the ACC - TE James Mitchell, WR Tre Turner, and WR Tayvion Robinson are ranked #1 in the ACC by David Hale.
5. Pitt: 8-4 (4-4) – Losses: at VT, #3 Clemson, #14 Miami, and #10 UNC. Despite losing guys to the NFL, I think the defense will be at least as good as it was in 2019, and probably better. David Hale ranks our DL #2, LB #2, and DBs #4 and no one other than Clemson can even argue that they have a better defense coming into the year than Pitt. That's not homerism, this is going to be yet another exceptional defense. The questions are really on offense, to state the obvious. Play calling and the OL have really held us back and I don’t see any reason to believe that either will improve all that much. Hale ranks our OL #13 out of 14. Replacing Morrissey with Drexel and the news that Houy will be starting again has me pretty concerned. It's been 4 seasons in a row of truly horrible offense, and while there is some hope for improvement, it’s unreasonable to expect it at this point. We know what we have in Pickett (Hale's #6 QB), who is good but not elite, and I think WR, RB, and TE will give us more than they have lately, but it’s not clear whether it will be enough of an improvement to beat Miami or UNC. If the offense does finally click though, it’s not hard to see a 10-win season with such a soft schedule, and if it was up to me, we would schedule this way every year. There is absolutely no reason for Pitt to lose to VT this year, but our recent history with them suggests that the home team will probably win. If I wasn't so jaded, I'd predict 9-3 and a 3rd place finish in the Coastal, because on paper, that's where we should be. Still, with a bowl win we get to 9 wins and a top 25 finish. That’s pretty good, all things considered.
6. Georgia Tech: 3-9 (1-7) – Wins: NIU, Kennesaw State (FCS), and Duke. I’d guess when all is said and done, GT probably gets a fourth win, but I can’t predict any specific team that they’ll beat other than these 3. My guess is that they’ll get a win at home against one of Pitt, VT, or BC, but all 3 are definitive favorites on paper. Collins is doing a good job restocking the cupboard, but they’re just not there yet. I think sophomores QB Jeff Sims (5.8 4 star) and RB Jahmyr Gibbs (5.9 4 star #70 overall) are going to be better this year, and probably very good next year, but there isn’t enough around them just yet. Gibbs might actually be the best RB in the ACC this season, and Hale ranks GTs running game #1. The problem is the rest of their units are bottom half of the ACC and this schedule is insane – #3 Clemson, #5 Georgia, #9 Notre Dame, #10 UNC, #14 Miami, to say nothing of Pitt and BC. Maybe they can get UVA, but it’s at UVA (where UVA doesn’t lose). It wouldn’t shock me if GT breaks through with 8 or 9 wins in 2022, but this year will be rough again.
7. Duke: 3-9 (0-8) – Wins: at UNC-Charlotte, NC A&T (FCS), and Kansas. This is a really bad football team. Cutcliffe had a really good run at a program that doesn’t care about football, but things have really slipped. I legitimately can’t see another winnable game on this schedule and it would not shock me at all if Duke loses to Kansas. RB Mataeo Durrant is pretty good, but that’s basically it. The highest ranked unit according to Hale is the running game at #10. It looks like Cutcliffe is only under contact until 2022, so my guess is that he’ll retire after this season. It'll be hard to fill that job, but there is no reason Duke can't be in a bowl game every other year. Heck, Wake has gone to five bowl games in a row, are you telling me Duke can’t be as good as Wake?
With so many COVID Super Seniors back, the quality of college football across the board is going to be through the roof. On the flip side, because everyone has so much coming back, experience will probably have less impact on the win-loss column than it usually does, despite improving overall quality. My guess is that the ACC will have 5, maybe 6, teams ranked in the final regular season Top 25 polls and that Pitt will be right in the mix like we were in 2015 and 2016. With 13 teams returning a QB with at least some starting experience, this is probably the strongest the ACC has been since 2016 when we had 5 teams ranked in the final Top 25. My guess is Clemson, UNC, Miami, BC, NC State, and possibly us (Pitt) will be ranked in the final top 25. On the other end, I think Syracuse and Duke are going to be downright awful, and Georgia Tech, despite having some high-quality talent, will be very lucky to find a 4th win.
Here's what I see for each ACC team. Except for Georgia Tech, Duke, and Syracuse, I’ve listed the losses instead of the wins to keep things simpler. I’m only predicting the regular season records. Rankings are preseason AP.
Coastal
1. #10 UNC: 10-2 (7-1) – Losses: #9 Notre Dame and at NC State. Sam Howell is the best QB in the ACC and one of the best in the Country. Everyone correctly points to the loss of skill position talent from last year’s team, but Brown has been lights out on the recruiting trail with back-to-back top 15 classes and some key transfers. I do think they will take a step back at the skill positions, but those are generally positions where kids can contribute early. David Hale says UNC has the best QB, second best running game, and third best pass catchers this season. I'm not sure I'm quite that high on them, but they'll still be good. Their CBs are legit and on paper at least, the defense should be pretty good. I recently rewatched most of the UNC vs. Texas A&M bowl game on ESPN, and UNC’s defense played quite well. I expect that they will start the year close to where they left off on defense. Despite predicting a 10-2 season, 8-4 wouldn’t shock me either, if the defense fails to improve, given what they lost on offense.
2. #14 Miami: 10-2 (7-1) – Losses: #1 Alabama and at #10 UNC. I know, I know, it’s Miami and they always faceplant, and I am assuming King is back to 100%, but I think it’s possible this Miami team is being underrated. Despite what I said about everyone having a lot of returning production, this team returns even more than most - virtually everyone on the two deep from a pretty good team returns. There’s always been tons of talent on this roster, but it rarely comes together. Outside of getting smashed by Alabama, though, they have a soft schedule (hardest games are at UNC, at Pitt, and home against NC State) and as we sit here today, it’s hard to see more than 2 losses. The offense should be lights out again and Diaz is taking over the defensive play calling, where he excels. This feels like a team with a 9-3 floor.
3. UVA: 8-4 (5-3) – Losses: at #10 UNC, at #14 Miami, #9 Notre Dame, at Pitt. UVA is not going to be very good, and with the exception of beating VT at home, I think they lose every game against a team with a winning record. Fortunately for UVA, they benefit from playing weak crossover opponents in Louisville and Wake so they slide ahead of Pitt in the ACC standings despite losing to us and having a worse overall record. UVA has been extremely good at home under Mendenhall, something like 17-3 in their last 20 home games, but they’re awful on the road. QB Brennan Armstrong (Hale's #7 QB) is back, but he's not a difference maker, and UVA doesn't have very good WR (Hale's #11) and still won't be able to run the ball (Hale's #10) - despite having probably one of the best OLs in the ACC (Hale ranked UVA's OL #1). Their defense lost a lot and their DBs are expected to be pretty bad, but they play mistake free football and their unorthodox 3-4 gives opposing teams fits.
4. Virginia Tech: 7-5 (4-4) – Losses: #10 UNC, #9 Notre Dame, at #14 Miami, at BC, and at UVA. I don’t think VT is going to be very good, but their schedule is manageable. I expect them to lose to the best teams they play, except for us, unfortunately. Fuente is an ass and I hope he stays at VT for as long as possible, because they’re never going to be very good while he’s there. They have no identity on offense or defense, their locker room is a mess, and their recruiting has fallen off a cliff (#85 class in 2020, #44 in 2021). Outside of PSU, VT has the best fanbase and gameday in the Mid-Atlantic and Fuente is completely squandering it. The defense will probably show some improvement, and they have some talent at each level (except maybe LB), but very little depth. Their QB has "Olympic speed" but it's not clear whether Burmeister can actually pass the ball, which is too bad, because their pass catchers are likely the best in the ACC - TE James Mitchell, WR Tre Turner, and WR Tayvion Robinson are ranked #1 in the ACC by David Hale.
5. Pitt: 8-4 (4-4) – Losses: at VT, #3 Clemson, #14 Miami, and #10 UNC. Despite losing guys to the NFL, I think the defense will be at least as good as it was in 2019, and probably better. David Hale ranks our DL #2, LB #2, and DBs #4 and no one other than Clemson can even argue that they have a better defense coming into the year than Pitt. That's not homerism, this is going to be yet another exceptional defense. The questions are really on offense, to state the obvious. Play calling and the OL have really held us back and I don’t see any reason to believe that either will improve all that much. Hale ranks our OL #13 out of 14. Replacing Morrissey with Drexel and the news that Houy will be starting again has me pretty concerned. It's been 4 seasons in a row of truly horrible offense, and while there is some hope for improvement, it’s unreasonable to expect it at this point. We know what we have in Pickett (Hale's #6 QB), who is good but not elite, and I think WR, RB, and TE will give us more than they have lately, but it’s not clear whether it will be enough of an improvement to beat Miami or UNC. If the offense does finally click though, it’s not hard to see a 10-win season with such a soft schedule, and if it was up to me, we would schedule this way every year. There is absolutely no reason for Pitt to lose to VT this year, but our recent history with them suggests that the home team will probably win. If I wasn't so jaded, I'd predict 9-3 and a 3rd place finish in the Coastal, because on paper, that's where we should be. Still, with a bowl win we get to 9 wins and a top 25 finish. That’s pretty good, all things considered.
6. Georgia Tech: 3-9 (1-7) – Wins: NIU, Kennesaw State (FCS), and Duke. I’d guess when all is said and done, GT probably gets a fourth win, but I can’t predict any specific team that they’ll beat other than these 3. My guess is that they’ll get a win at home against one of Pitt, VT, or BC, but all 3 are definitive favorites on paper. Collins is doing a good job restocking the cupboard, but they’re just not there yet. I think sophomores QB Jeff Sims (5.8 4 star) and RB Jahmyr Gibbs (5.9 4 star #70 overall) are going to be better this year, and probably very good next year, but there isn’t enough around them just yet. Gibbs might actually be the best RB in the ACC this season, and Hale ranks GTs running game #1. The problem is the rest of their units are bottom half of the ACC and this schedule is insane – #3 Clemson, #5 Georgia, #9 Notre Dame, #10 UNC, #14 Miami, to say nothing of Pitt and BC. Maybe they can get UVA, but it’s at UVA (where UVA doesn’t lose). It wouldn’t shock me if GT breaks through with 8 or 9 wins in 2022, but this year will be rough again.
7. Duke: 3-9 (0-8) – Wins: at UNC-Charlotte, NC A&T (FCS), and Kansas. This is a really bad football team. Cutcliffe had a really good run at a program that doesn’t care about football, but things have really slipped. I legitimately can’t see another winnable game on this schedule and it would not shock me at all if Duke loses to Kansas. RB Mataeo Durrant is pretty good, but that’s basically it. The highest ranked unit according to Hale is the running game at #10. It looks like Cutcliffe is only under contact until 2022, so my guess is that he’ll retire after this season. It'll be hard to fill that job, but there is no reason Duke can't be in a bowl game every other year. Heck, Wake has gone to five bowl games in a row, are you telling me Duke can’t be as good as Wake?
