Question for levance, whirly, and upitt89 on tourney chances

[Sean Miller Fan]

So last week, after the Duke loss, I posted the question, basically asking if we clinched a bid even if we lost out. The responses were about 50/50. I thought I remember whirly and levance thinking we clinched. My thoughts at the time were that I wasnt as confident but I thought we would get in if we went 0-3.

My reasoning for thinking that was that I felt Syracuse was virtually assured a bid. Syracuse beat fellow bubble team SBU and have good Bahamas wins over A&M and UCONN, plus ND and @ Duke. That's just too many good wins to leave out. Plus, they wen under .500 without Boeheim so they would get consideration for that.

So, Syracuse was in. But we swept Syracuse and have a similar RPI. There have been times when a bubble team got in over another bubble team after getting swept by the other one, but usually it doesn't happen. That's what I was hanging my hat on. If we lost out, we still have to go in over Syracuse.

I felt playing Syracuse in DC was a worst-case scenario because it would give the committee to make it a play-in game. With a Syr win, we would have beaten them 2 out of 3 but they would have the latest win and one of those losses was without Boeheim, so I think the committee would give us very very little credit for beating them 2 out of 3 and they would be in over us.

When I ran all the scenarios, there were about 20 or so, only 2 or 3 presented Pitt playing Syr. But it happened. Both lost, both desperately need a win.

At this point, I firmly believe that the game is a play-in game, especially for Pitt, who has only 2 Top 50 wins.

What do you think and would you feel any different if we were playing somebody other than Syracuse?

Example, if Syr beat FSU and Miami beat VT yesterday, we would have been playing VT. At that point, I think Syracuse would be in and even with a loss to VT in DC, it would be tough for the committee to put them in over us?

What I am asking is do you feel, as I do, that a loss to Syracuse strips us of our safety net of having a sweep to hold over them? Do you feel, as I do, that Syracuse was the team (out of VT/GT/FSU) that we could least afford to lose to on Wednesday? And finally, if we lose, are we still in?

 

[Piranha]

So last week, after the Duke loss, I posted the question, basically asking if we clinched a bid even if we lost out. The responses were about 50/50. I thought I remember whirly and levance thinking we clinched. My thoughts at the time were that I wasnt as confident but I thought we would get in if we went 0-3.

My reasoning for thinking that was that I felt Syracuse was virtually assured a bid. Syracuse beat fellow bubble team SBU and have good Bahamas wins over A&M and UCONN, plus ND and @ Duke. That's just too many good wins to leave out. Plus, they wen under .500 without Boeheim so they would get consideration for that.

So, Syracuse was in. But we swept Syracuse and have a similar RPI. There have been times when a bubble team got in over another bubble team after getting swept by the other one, but usually it doesn't happen. That's what I was hanging my hat on. If we lost out, we still have to go in over Syracuse.

I felt playing Syracuse in DC was a worst-case scenario because it would give the committee to make it a play-in game. With a Syr win, we would have beaten them 2 out of 3 but they would have the latest win and one of those losses was without Boeheim, so I think the committee would give us very very little credit for beating them 2 out of 3 and they would be in over us.

When I ran all the scenarios, there were about 20 or so, only 2 or 3 presented Pitt playing Syr. But it happened. Both lost, both desperately need a win.

At this point, I firmly believe that the game is a play-in game, especially for Pitt, who has only 2 Top 50 wins.

What do you think and would you feel any different if we were playing somebody other than Syracuse?

Example, if Syr beat FSU and Miami beat VT yesterday, we would have been playing VT. At that point, I think Syracuse would be in and even with a loss to VT in DC, it would be tough for the committee to put them in over us?

What I am asking is do you feel, as I do, that a loss to Syracuse strips us of our safety net of having a sweep to hold over them? Do you feel, as I do, that Syracuse was the team (out of VT/GT/FSU) that we could least afford to lose to on Wednesday? And finally, if we lose, are we still in?

Winner gets in and the loser doesn't. That is why we should be in talks with Gonzaga if we both lose.

 

[UPitt '89]

I think it is a playin game, and the loser has an outside shot at Dayton - at best.

 

[levance2]

I think both are in with a loss today, but there are a million other games this week that impact it. I think the worst case scenario is some other outside-the-bubble team from the ACC goes on a run: VT, GT, Clemson. I'm not sure any of them have a prayer, but it makes the conversation about the ACC more complicated.

I don't recall ever saying they were a lock. I always thought they needed 2 wins (Duke was the first) and assumed VT would be an easy second. They really choked in their seeding and otherwise would've had a much easier opener in DC too.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I think both are in with a loss today, but there are a million other games this week that impact it. I think the worst case scenario is some other outside-the-bubble team from the ACC goes on a run: VT, GT, Clemson. I'm not sure any of them have a prayer, but it makes the conversation about the ACC more complicated.

I don't recall ever saying they were a lock. I always thought they needed 2 wins (Duke was the first) and assumed VT would be an easy second. They really choked in their seeding and otherwise would've had a much easier opener in DC too.

What about my idea that the opportunity to lose to Syracuse was the worst possible match-up. Do you feel that if we avoided the 3rd matchup with Syracuse and lost to anybody else, it would help or wouldn't it matter. I've felt the Syracuse sweep was our safety net and if they beat us once, it becomes very easy to take them over us and we lose that safety net.

 

[levance2]

I think Dixon has done well enough against Syracuse, including a double-digit win on their court this season, that nobody should be too upset about drawing them in DC. Are they harder than VT or GT? Yes, of course. I think losing to Syracuse is certainly a better result than losing to GT or Clemson, speaking in worst-case terms.

 

[NTOP]

Winner gets in and the loser doesn't. That is why we should be in talks with Gonzaga if we both lose.

Why? No way you could schedule a game between Wednesday & whenever the Zags lose before Sunday. Or have I missed a sarcastic post??