8. Pittsburgh Panthers (5-0)
Last week's ranking: 12thSP+ and FPI rankings: 32nd and 32nd
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 81st
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.9%
What the Panthers did in Week 6: def. North Carolina 34-24. With the game tied at 24-24 heading into the fourth quarter, Pitt did what Pitt does: take control late. A field goal and a seven-minute touchdown drive allowed the Panthers to pull away.
Midseason MVP: QB Eli Holstein. Pitt has played three SP+ top-50 opponents -- granted, they were all between 37th and 50th -- and has won all three games by a combined 15 points. That doesn't automatically scream "ELITE!", nor does Holstein's overall stat line. But while he's only 56th in Total QBR, he has been virtually perfect in the fourth quarter: 22-for-29 for 362 yards and two touchdowns, plus 87 non-sack rushing yards and another score. The Panthers have already won three tight games, and SP+ projects all of their last seven games within 8.5 points. The close-game drama has just begun, but that's just more opportunities for Holstein to create his legend, right?
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: CB Ryland Gandy. Pitt's defense has already played a couple of top-30 offenses (Cincinnati and West Virginia), but the fact that the Panthers rank 75th in points allowed per drive is still a major concern. Their run defense is strong, but they're suffering a lot of breakdowns on pass plays; they blitz all the time but rank just 58th in sack rate, and the secondary has suffered quite a few big gashes. The risk-reward ratio is off, and it's putting too much pressure on Gandy and the back line. Gandy had allowed four completions of 20-plus yards heading into Saturday's game, and there are plenty of good offenses (Clemson, Louisville, among others) still to come on the schedule.
Next test: Week 7 vs. California
