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Reasonable prediction thread

I hope you are right. I’d sign up for that right now.
Not sure your minimum scenario math computes very well. Going 8-12 ACC and still finishing 4+ games over 0.500 regular season would require 9 games over in the OOC's 11 games [i.e., going 10-1 ( 9 games over = 18-13) because 9-2 OOC would only be 7 games over OOC = 17-14)].

The minimum scenario math is a little better if there can be 2-3 ACCT wins vs 1 ACCT loss figured in the mix.

In any event doing better than 7-4 or 8-3 OOC might be every bit as difficult as winning 8+ ACC games. Consider that the OOC includes Vanderbilt on the road, the two (2) Legends Classic games (Pitt, VCU, Arizona, Michigan) in Brooklyn, the ACC-B10 Challenge game and the West Virginia game. Out of those five games Pitt would be fortunate to get more than 2 wins. So, if they beat all the other 6 supposedly weaker opponents (no upset losses) 8-3 OOC might be where the OOC ends up.

IMHO, a doable scenario might be to beat Vandy and then either go 1-1 Legends/or, else win the ACC B10 challenge game plus have no upset losses and get to that 8-3 OOC record. Next go 8-12 ACC plus 2-1 ACCT. That would put the overall record at 18-16 after the ACCT with an NIT bid somewhat possible.
 
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Not sure your minimum scenario math computes very well. Going 8-12 ACC and still finishing 4+ games over 0.500 regular season would require 9 games over in the OOC's 11 games [i.e., going 10-1 ( 9 games over = 18-13) because 9-2 OOC would only be 7 games over OOC = 17-14)].

The minimum scenario math is a little better if there can be 2-3 ACCT wins vs 1 ACCT loss figured in the mix.

In any event doing better than 7-4 or 8-3 OOC might be every bit as difficult as winning 8+ ACC games. Consider that the OOC includes Vanderbilt on the road, the two (2) Legends Classic games (Pitt, VCU, Arizona, Michigan) in Brooklyn, the ACC-B10 Challenge game and the West Virginia game. Out of those five games Pitt would be fortunate to get more than 2 wins. So, if they beat all the other 6 supposedly weaker opponents (no upset losses) 8-3 OOC might be where the OOC ends up.

IMHO, a doable scenario might be to beat Vandy and then either go 1-1 Legends/or, else win the ACC B10 challenge game plus have no upset losses and get to that 8-3 OOC record. Next go 8-12 ACC plus 2-1 ACCT. That would put the overall record at 18-16 after the ACCT with an NIT bid somewhat possible.
It wasn’t my scenario. I just said I would happily agree to being 4 or more games over .500.
 
OK, I see where you are coming from. I would also love to see a 4+ games over 0.500 finish.

Getting there would likely require 9-10 ACC regular season wins. That would be fantastic after the last six years of truly awful!!
 
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i realize it's not your
"scenario," but anything
even close to "4 or more
games over 500" would
be a major achievement.
I just don't see it with
this group.
I doubt it happens too. That is why I would happily agree to it.
 
I won't predict a win-
loss scenario, since I
always want to see em
first in REAL game time.
However, I do see an
uptick this season due
to more overall talent
from top to bottom.
Again, that overall talent
is AVERAGE. Others in
this thread have said,
and I agree....we will be
better in some places.
Hugley will undoubtedly
improve. I like Cummings
over Femi. I feel Burton
will be steady, and he is
capable of being another
pg. We have better 3 pt.
potential and have five
guards who can actually
play. Santos?...we'll see.

Hugley needs help up
front. Hinson? I have no
idea but he's probably
better than what we had
last year. Fede? I gotta
believe will be a better
back up than Collier.
The twins? We'll see,but
maybe some spot duty
as they develop.

We have a much more
difficult pre season. The
ACC will maybe be better.
The unspoken key for us
is how well Capel can mix
and match these new
pieces into a cohesive
unit.

Even with all of the turnover - Pitt is returning the 5th most production in the ACC. The additions are largely additions over last year.
 
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If Pitt reaches the level of mediocrity suggested , 15-17 wins, will people come back to the Pete to watch it?
 
Even with all of the turnover - Pitt is returning the 5th most production in the ACC. The additions are largely additions over last year.
OK, good find on your
part. 5th looks good in
this league comparison.
With that said, I noticed
Duke, Miami, and WF all
finished below us in this
study. All three have far
better coming in than
we do. and I'm pretty
certain all three will
finish ahead of us in the
ACC. Hugley and Burton
stats are the main reasons
for our 5th place.

So,....pretty interesting
returning %'s for us... We
will be better IMO given
the better depth. Let's
see what it does for our
win-loss record.
 
The only way I see Pitt winning more than 13-14 games is if one of the twins is a surprise contributor. Course this is all based on not even seeing a scrimmage yet, but Hinson seems too much of a fade-away jump shooter to me.

Teams will work to get Hugley into foul trouble and with the big guy on the bench we’re pretty much toast — unless one of those twins steps up. And with their height, who knows…

Go Pitt.
 
The only way I see Pitt winning more than 13-14 games is if one of the twins is a surprise contributor. Course this is all based on not even seeing a scrimmage yet, but Hinson seems too much of a fade-away jump shooter to me.

Teams will work to get Hugley into foul trouble and with the big guy on the bench we’re pretty much toast — unless one of those twins steps up. And with their height, who knows…

Go Pitt.
If Hinson is even medically cleared. TBD
 

If Hinson is even medically cleared. TBD
If Hinson isn't medically
cleared, that would be an
obvious problem. I don't
know how effective he'll
be, but he does bring us
experience. The other
options to help Hugley on
the inside all lack Hinson's
experience. Maybe they
can back up Hugley for
10-12 minutes, but can
they play along side of
him? Hugley obviously
cannot handle the inside
himself. We clearly saw
how teams doubled him
last year.

The good news..... I do
feel we're stronger in the
backcourt, but the inside
IMO, was and still is a
concern.
 
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If Hinson isn't medically
cleared, that would be an
obvious problem. I don't
know how effective he'll
be, but he does bring us
experience. The other
options to help Hugley on
the inside all lack Hinson's
experience. Maybe they
can back up Hugley for
10-12 minutes, but can
they play along side of
him? Hugley obviously
cannot handle the inside
himself. We clearly saw
how teams doubled him
last year.

The good news..... I do
feel we're stronger in the
backcourt, but the inside
IMO, was and still is a
concern.
IMO, Hugley getting doubled so much was to a significat degree Pitt's pitifully weak outside shooting. If that changes he will be doubled less.
 
IMO, Hugley getting doubled so much was to a significat degree Pitt's pitifully weak outside shooting. If that changes he will be doubled less.
Exactly. We had a 6’10” Mo Gueye beside Hugley last year and it still resulted in him getting double teamed with every paint touch. More size isn’t going to get teams to back off - forcing them to defend the perimeter will.
 
This all makes sense and is more or less what I see.

Can you elaborate more on what you said about the twins? I believe I've said what I heard which was they are a little closer to projects than Pitt fans might want.

I'd maybe predict more than 14 wins. It might be a little bit hopeful but I'm seeing maybe 8-12 in conference and 8-3 OOC. The ACC record depends on how much the league will improve. Hard to know right now. I think Capel has upgraded overall talent, but I just don't know if I see a player he's brought in that will make a significant difference. Or in other words, I think he's raised the floor, but perhaps not the ceiling.

Getting to a winning record is a must for Capel to keep his job in my opinion.
Certainly the lack of offers/interest w/r/t the Diaz twins can be viewed as compelling circumstantial evidence.

But maybe there is some precedent that offers some hope beyond just wishful thinking that there could be some “lightning in a bottle” for Pitt with the twins? This is a Jamie quote about Chevy Troutman (entire article linked):

“When you're building a program like we were, you have to get some guys who surprise you," Pitt coach Jamie Dixon said. "You find players who are under-recruited (Troutman had offers only from La Salle and Duquesne) and hope they can help make an impact. There's no question that Chevy has made an impact at the University of Pittsburgh."

https://archive.triblive.com/news/troutman-has-made-all-the-right-choices-3__trashed/
 
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IMO, Hugley getting doubled so much was to a significat degree Pitt's pitifully weak outside shooting. If that changes he will be doubled less.
Yes, you make a good
point. True, he might
get doubled less, but
seriously, what will
the net result in wins
be? What really matters
when it comes down
to it is talent. Much as
I like Hugley, he needs
help, and I just don't
see it on the inside. I
have repeatedly posted
that our backcourt is
improved and has depth.
Unfortunately it's all
AVERAGE depth.
 
Certainly the lack of offers/interest w/r/t the Diaz twins can be viewed as compelling circumstantial evidence.

But maybe there is some precedent that offers some hope beyond just wishful thinking that there could be some “lightning in a bottle” for Pitt with the twins? This is a Jamie quote about Chevy Troutman (entire article linked):

“When you're building a program like we were, you have to get some guys who surprise you," Pitt coach Jamie Dixon said. "You find players who are under-recruited (Troutman had offers only from La Salle and Duquesne) and hope they can help make an impact. There's no question that Chevy has made an impact at the University of Pittsburgh."

https://archive.triblive.com/news/troutman-has-made-all-the-right-choices-3__trashed/
There has to be a more recent example than Chevy Troutman… lol. That was 22 freaking years ago!
 
Certainly the lack of offers/interest w/r/t the Diaz twins can be viewed as compelling circumstantial evidence.

But maybe there is some precedent that offers some hope beyond just wishful thinking that there could be some “lightning in a bottle” for Pitt with the twins? This is a Jamie quote about Chevy Troutman (entire article linked):

“When you're building a program like we were, you have to get some guys who surprise you," Pitt coach Jamie Dixon said. "You find players who are under-recruited (Troutman had offers only from La Salle and Duquesne) and hope they can help make an impact. There's no question that Chevy has made an impact at the University of Pittsburgh."

https://archive.triblive.com/news/troutman-has-made-all-the-right-choices-3__trashed/

I'm all for hoping for having some guys surprise us, but Chevy might not be the best example. He was well known as a top 100-125 ranked recruit and the second best high school player in PA.

I don't remember exactly why he was only offered by Duquesne and LaSalle. I suspect it was because of qualifying issues -- if you remember -- he was a partial qualifier and had a sit out a year before playing. Bottom line though, is that Chevy was not viewed as a project be any means.

Another thing to consider is that it took three years before Chevy made a big impact. As I said, he sat out a year being a partial qualifier, and didn't really make an impact in his freshman year until Howland decided to use him at the five an he started playing more by taking more of Toree Morris' minutes. But his impact wasn't really felt until his third year (RS sophomore year).

But again, I'm not trying to contest your point per se. We are going to need some lighting in the bottle for this year.

Along those lines, a better example might Donatas Zavackas. He was not heavily recruited, nor extremely well known. I think there was one recruiting source (Clark Francis) who considered him in the Top 200. But he was pretty much a starter as a freshman during Howland's first year. He was certainly more bulky and stronger than the twins, but the comparison still stands.
 
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I'm all for hoping for having some guys surprise us, but Chevy might not be the best example. He was well known as a top 100-125 ranked recruit and the second best high school player in PA.

I don't remember exactly why he was only offered by Duquesne and LaSalle. I suspect it was because of qualifying issues -- if you remember -- he was a partial qualifier and had a sit out a year before playing. Bottom line though, is that Chevy was not viewed as a project be any means.

Another thing to consider is that it took three years before Chevy made a big impact. As I said, he sat out a year being a partial qualifier, and didn't really make an impact in his freshman year until Howland decided to use him at the five an he started playing more by taking more of Toree Morris' minutes. But his impact wasn't really felt until his third year (RS sophomore year).

But again, I'm not trying to contest your point per se. We are going to need some lighting in the bottle for this year.

Along those lines, a better example might Donatas Zavackas. He was not heavily recruited, nor extremely well known. I think there was one recruiting source (Clark Francis) who considered him in the Top 200. But he was pretty much a starter as a freshman during Howland's first year. He was certainly more bulky and stronger than the twins, but the comparison still stands.
To me the point is that we just never know. Especially with young guys. Some exceed expectations. Some never meet them.

Pitt really needs some guys to step up. They also need what appears to be a much better job of developing and coaching them up. And retaining more guys so they have a chance to improve.

Would be great to have a season where PItt does something that gives us cause for optimism moving forward. It has been WAY TOO LONG! All we can do is to wait and see. 🤷‍♂️
 
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There has to be a more recent example than Chevy Troutman… lol. That was 22 freaking years ago!
Very fresh in my memory if not yours. But regardless, for whatever reasons he was lightly recruited. And he was a fabulous player. It happens. The opposite also happens: highly recruited guys that flop.

The Portal and NIL have changed the dynamics now. That can work for or against a program. All up to the decisions the leadership makes.
 
To me the point is that we just never know. Especially with young guys. Some exceed expectations. Some never meet them.

Pitt really needs some guys to step up. They also need what appears to be a much better job of developing and coaching them up. And retaining more guys so they have a chance to improve.

Would be great to have a season where PItt does something that gives us cause for optimism moving forward. It has been WAY TOO LONG! All we can do is to wait and see. 🤷‍♂️
indeed!
 
Last season Pitt made 172 out of 548 3s attempted. Pitt's opponents made 276 out of 749 3s attempted. In ACC only play Pitt made 125 of 369 3s attempted. Opponents made 244 out of 466 3s attempted.

This tells me three things--

(1) The most obvious is that Pitt's 3-ball shooting was awful.
(2) Recognizing how awful it was the coaches purposely had the team attempt fewer 3s than their opponents and focus more on shooting 2s and getting the ball inside.
(3) Opponents scored nearly 10 more points per game on 3s than did Pitt due to both a better percentage and greater
volume. When you consider Pitt's negative per game scoring margin was -6.6 (-7.7 ACC) much of that differential can be attributed to Pitt's weak 3-ball shooting compared to its opponents.

A huge IF is whether the newcomer's in the backcourt and on the wing can shoot the 3 at a higher percentage and whether they will be allowed to shoot it at a higher frequency. If they can do that then Hugley should not really need much inside help.

But, as you say, there is certainly the question as to whether there is enough added talent to make that happen. Also, there is the additional question of whether Capel will adapt his style to focus more on shooting the 3-ball.

It may be purely wishful thinking on my part but I don't (at least in concept) see the need for the 1-4 guys to necessarily be more talented overall players (at least offensively) than last year's group as long as their talent in shooting the 3-ball is greater--great enough to force Pitt's opponents to focus on guarding perimeter jump shooters rather than sagging to stop effective dribble driving and on doubling Hugley on the low blocks.

Like others I will withhold actual expectations until I put my eyes on a few OOC games played next fall.
 
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Very fresh in my memory if not yours. But regardless, for whatever reasons he was lightly recruited. And he was a fabulous player. It happens. The opposite also happens: highly recruited guys that flop.

The Portal and NIL have changed the dynamics now. That can work for or against a program. All up to the decisions the leadership makes.
Yeah. The Chevy trout man Ontario alert examples aren’t prevalent though. It’s why we don’t have a good comparison for another big since.
 
To me the point is that we just never know. Especially with young guys. Some exceed expectations. Some never meet them.

Pitt really needs some guys to step up. They also need what appears to be a much better job of developing and coaching them up. And retaining more guys so they have a chance to improve.

Would be great to have a season where PItt does something that gives us cause for optimism moving forward. It has been WAY TOO LONG! All we can do is to wait and see. 🤷‍♂️

We just don't know what these kids will develop into or if there will be team chemistry. Or more importantly, if some of them will even show up. I'm remaining cautiously optimistic but know that there are many uncertainties next year. Too many to predict anything more than a 0.500 season overall as the best we can do.
 
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