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Recruiting Stars, for what it's worth...

6 guys.

Random spot - Pitt related - 2008 5-star wide receivers: Julio Jones, AJ Green, DeVier Posey, DeAndre Brown, Jonathan Baldwin, Michael Floyd. Four 1st round NFL picks, one 3rd round pick, and one guy who never made it.

A 5* is more likely to make it than a 4*, who is more likely to make it than a 3*, who is more likely to make it than a 2*. There are plenty of 2*s in the NFL.
 
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I get that low rated guys become top notch players, however, when you look generally the higher rated guys have a better chance to become top collegiate players. However, I always like to look at the offer list and to me that is what counts. That's why Camp being a 3 star with that offer list doesn't make sense. Yet, in years past Pitt has received 3 star commits and their offer lists were MAC level schools.

When schools like Bama, OSU, Miami, USC etc are coming after a kid, even if not their top priority but have actually extended an offer is what can shed the trues light on that players potential. That is why this years class has so many Pitt fans hopeful is because most of these players all have solid offer sheets, not just interest but actual commitable offers from the top football programs in the country.

With the players you have listed above, I am sure A Brown didn't have a lot of top notch schools coming after him, but there are so many players across the country that there always going to be under the radar guys. Hence, why player potential recognition and subsequent player development is soooo important in college. IMO, PN is is good at both of those very important areas of college coaching and let's hope it continues to pay dividends for Pitt.
 
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It means something at the top - and at the bottom. For everyone else it is completely meaningless.
 
There are a number of reason why a player can fly "under the radar" of those rating high school/prep players. It obviously does not mean he is rated 0 out of 5 stars. It usually means the player simply either wasn't high profile enough to be rated or hasn't shown enough yet on the field (maybe due to injury or being a late bloomer) to merit what they think is deserving of 2+ stars.

In any event, it shows how those individuals rating recruits often miss out on potential big time players.

JJ Watt tweet... "Annual reminder that it's not all about how many stars you have or how many cameras show up at your signing. It's what you do next."
 
Yep. What everyone already knows. Maybe 5% of 2 star players become great players. Its probaby like 20% of 4 star players. More stars=higher probability.
 
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Pitt79 said:
I found this article really interesting, here's the "STARS" ratings of several NFL players coming out of high school...

J.J. Watt - 2
Antonio Brown - 0
Le’Veon Bell - 2
David DeCastro - 3
Aaron Donald - 3
Khalil Mack - 2

http://sportsblogs.post-gazette.com...ite-to-win-Super-Bowl-51/stories/201602030003
Click to expand...

There are literally 15 times as many 3-star players every year as there are 5-star players. Yet the numbers consistently show that the highest percentage of players to make All-Conference teams and become 1st round picks in the NFL draft are 5-star players.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap20...ar-look-at-fivestar-college-football-recruits

» There were 262 recruits given five-star status. There were as many as 38 five stars in one class, in 2002, and as few as 25, in both 2003 and 2004. The average number of five-star recruits in a class was 29.

» Of those 262, 116 were drafted (44.3 percent) and 42 went in the first round (16 percent); 38 percent of the five stars who were drafted were first-rounders.

The bottom line is, yes, some lower ranked guys end up making impacts at the college and pro levels, but, at least when it comes to the players ranked at the very top of the recruiting pyramid, the scouts are able to separate the wheat from the chaff.
 
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The CFP teams were chock full of 4/5* players. That's much more significant than lesser guys reaching NFL
 
Pitt79 said:
I found this article really interesting, here's the "STARS" ratings of several NFL players coming out of high school...

J.J. Watt - 2
Antonio Brown - 0
Le’Veon Bell - 2
David DeCastro - 3
Aaron Donald - 3
Khalil Mack - 2

http://sportsblogs.post-gazette.com...ite-to-win-Super-Bowl-51/stories/201602030003
Click to expand...

This again. Zeise made the best point about this stuff.

Yes there are many 2 or 3 star guys who turn out to be superstars. And there are many 4 and 5 stars that bust.
But in the big picture if I get 15 4 or 5 stars every year and a few fail, and you get 15 2 or 3 stars every year and a few make it big, I am generally going to kick your ass every year.

Ratings are not perfect and really good players fall through the cracks all the time. But a way larger percentage of high rated guys will make it big over lesser rated guys.

Want proof? Check the records of teams over the last say 10 years who average above a 4 star rating in recruiting and compare it a team who averages around 3, give or take.

Case closed.
 
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9nationalchampionships said:
How can a 0 be possible?
Click to expand...

And if it's true that they gave him a "0" that was REALLY OFF! And then he's only a 6th round pick? I guess they figured he's not that big, and he played weak competition at CMU. He was also teammates with JC Watt in college.
 
How can any player be a 0? If you are good enough to get a scholarship you should at least be a 1 *

Pitt79 said:
And if it's true that they gave him a "0" that was REALLY OFF! And then he's only a 6th round pick? I guess they figured he's not that big, and he played weak competition at CMU. He was also teammates with JC Watt in college.
Click to expand...
 
Pitt79 said:
And if it's true that they gave him a "0" that was REALLY OFF! And then he's only a 6th round pick? I guess they figured he's not that big, and he played weak competition at CMU. He was also teammates with JC Watt in college.
Click to expand...

Brown had a very tough upbringing and was homeless for part of high school. Understandably, he had horrible grades and probably wouldn't have made the academic cut at most places. He eventually got an offer at FIU and left after about a year IIRC, eventually following Butch Jones from WVU to CMU.
 
wbrpanther said:
This again. Zeise made the best point about this stuff.

Yes there are many 2 or 3 star guys who turn out to be superstars. And there are many 4 and 5 stars that bust.
But in the big picture if I get 15 4 or 5 stars every year and a few fail, and you get 15 2 or 3 stars every year and a few make it big, I am generally going to kick your ass every year.

Ratings are not perfect and really good players fall through the cracks all the time. But a way larger percentage of high rated guys will make it big over lesser rated guys.

Want proof? Check the records of teams over the last say 10 years who average above a 4 star rating in recruiting and compare it a team who averages around 3, give or take.

Case closed.
Click to expand...

No, I believe you :) I just though it was interesting, especially Antonio Brown, going from ZERO to arguably best WR in the NFL.
 
9nationalchampionships said:
How can any player be a 0? If you are good enough to get a scholarship you should at least be a 1 *
Click to expand...

I think it's possible, I was probably a 0, maybe they would have let me walk on at Geneva or W&J, I mean being a 6-3 210 OT/DE who ran a 5.2 40.:)
 
wbrpanther said:
Ratings are not perfect and really good players fall through the cracks all the time. But a way larger percentage of high rated guys will make it big over lesser rated guys.

Want proof? Check the records of teams over the last say 10 years who average above a 4 star rating in recruiting and compare it a team who averages around 3, give or take.

Case closed.
Click to expand...

True for the most part... though you might want to leave Miami and Texas out of that comparison... but then sometimes even bad coaching can screw up the ability of talented recruits to play well together on a team.
 
wbrpanther said:
This again. Zeise made the best point about this stuff.

Yes there are many 2 or 3 star guys who turn out to be superstars. And there are many 4 and 5 stars that bust.
But in the big picture if I get 15 4 or 5 stars every year and a few fail, and you get 15 2 or 3 stars every year and a few make it big, I am generally going to kick your ass every year.

Ratings are not perfect and really good players fall through the cracks all the time. But a way larger percentage of high rated guys will make it big over lesser rated guys.

Want proof? Check the records of teams over the last say 10 years who average above a 4 star rating in recruiting and compare it a team who averages around 3, give or take.

Case closed.
Click to expand...

Its not case closed at all.

Because what is not factored in is position.

Would you rather have a 5 Star QB or 5 star Punter?

Would you rather have a 5 Star RB or 5 Star Kicker?

Would you rather have a 5 Star DE or 5 Star TE?

The game of football generally is decided by who has the best QB playing and the best defensive line. Those are the 2 most important positions on the field to me.

Almost all super bowl winners have a great QB. The same with college football, most teams that play in the championship have great QB's.

Most great teams have a dominant defensive line. Its been the Steelers trademark to get pass pressure and stuff the run for 50 years.

If I have a QB playmaker, I will beat you.

If I control the line of scrimmage on defense, I will beat you.

Pitt still needs to find a really good proven QB.

I am confident Pitt is going to destroy some teams with our new defensive line.
 
Pitt79 said:
I found this article really interesting, here's the "STARS" ratings of several NFL players coming out of high school...

J.J. Watt - 2
Antonio Brown - 0
Le’Veon Bell - 2
David DeCastro - 3
Aaron Donald - 3
Khalil Mack - 2

http://sportsblogs.post-gazette.com...ite-to-win-Super-Bowl-51/stories/201602030003
Click to expand...
this is the oldest, most worn out and meaningless discussion/debate in the history of this board.

let's sum it up like this--every year there are some H.S. players who are under-recruited for various reasons and end up far exceeding their recruiting projections.

How's that?

Or do we have to go down the list of the 4 and 5 star kids who end up being superstars, like the two starting QBs in this Super Bowl?

Or do we have to talk about how the Alabama, the team that has won 3 of the last 5 national championships, is 3 deep with 4 and 5 star kids at every position? Or how the team that Bama destroyed int the playoff, Michigan State, had by far the least talented roster per recruiting ratings of any of the playoff teams?

I mean, what is the sense of perpetuating this conversation?
 
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BuffetParrothead said:
Rothlisberger must of had low stars coming out of Miami Ohio?
Click to expand...
Flacco must of also had low stars out of Delaware. I bet if someone looked into this we'd find there's a lot of 2-3 star guys doing well in the NFL.
There's a lot of distortion with star rating when a kid tears up a crappy HS football league, gets high stars, and goes into a slow steady crash landing in college.

I replied to my own post that's a new one meant to edit the first one. Talking to yourself isn't a good sign?
 
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steel_curtain said:
Its not case closed at all.

Because what is not factored in is position.

Would you rather have a 5 Star QB or 5 star Punter?

Would you rather have a 5 Star RB or 5 Star Kicker?

Would you rather have a 5 Star DE or 5 Star TE?

The game of football generally is decided by who has the best QB playing and the best defensive line. Those are the 2 most important positions on the field to me.

Almost all super bowl winners have a great QB. The same with college football, most teams that play in the championship have great QB's.

Most great teams have a dominant defensive line. Its been the Steelers trademark to get pass pressure and stuff the run for 50 years.

If I have a QB playmaker, I will beat you.

If I control the line of scrimmage on defense, I will beat you.

Pitt still needs to find a really good proven QB.

I am confident Pitt is going to destroy some teams with our new defensive line.
Click to expand...
Well there are never any "5 star Punters" or "5 Star Kickers" and essentially never any "5 star TEs", sooooo...
 
lilspainishflea said:
There are literally 15 times as many 3-star players every year as there are 5-star players. Yet the numbers consistently show that the highest percentage of players to make All-Conference teams and become 1st round picks in the NFL draft are 5-star players.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap20...ar-look-at-fivestar-college-football-recruits

» There were 262 recruits given five-star status. There were as many as 38 five stars in one class, in 2002, and as few as 25, in both 2003 and 2004. The average number of five-star recruits in a class was 29.

» Of those 262, 116 were drafted (44.3 percent) and 42 went in the first round (16 percent); 38 percent of the five stars who were drafted were first-rounders.

The bottom line is, yes, some lower ranked guys end up making impacts at the college and pro levels, but, at least when it comes to the players ranked at the very top of the recruiting pyramid, the scouts are able to separate the wheat from the chaff.
Click to expand...
And, an important point to note: A lot of these 5 and 4 star players go to the same schools, so, invariably, some of them will "bust" and not have great careers because they will not beat out their competition for whatever reason. Obviously attitude and work ethic are the things that are most likely to stop the 5 star kids from ever making it big in college and going to the NFL. Of course that can not and is not a part of the Rivals (and the like) recruiting evaluation.
 
Jpripper88 said:
Well there are never any "5 star Punters" or "5 Star Kickers" and essentially never any "5 star TEs", sooooo...
Click to expand...

Would you prefer?

A dominant DE or dominant WR?

A dominant DE or dominant MLB?

A dominant DE or dominant CB?

There is a reason guys like J.J. Watt and Aaron Donald are so valuable in the NFL. They dominate the line.

Ill take a dominant d-line over anything besides QB. Would you? There is a reason the Steelers have the most Superbowls in the NFL.
 
steel_curtain said:
Would you prefer?

A dominant DE or dominant WR?

A dominant DE or dominant MLB?

A dominant DE or dominant CB?

There is a reason guys like J.J. Watt and Aaron Donald are so valuable in the NFL. They dominate the line.

Ill take a dominant d-line over anything besides QB. Would you? There is a reason the Steelers have the most Superbowls in the NFL.
Click to expand...
What does that have to do with what I said? Who said DE wasn't important? However, of those, I would probably rather have the dominant WR first and the DE second in college football.
 
lilspainishflea said:
Brown had a very tough upbringing and was homeless for part of high school. Understandably, he had horrible grades and probably wouldn't have made the academic cut at most places. He eventually got an offer at FIU and left after about a year IIRC, eventually following Butch Jones from WVU to CMU.
Click to expand...
Correct. I was present the first time AB ever played in a college football game--the spring game his first year at CMU. He jumped off the page and was clearly a superstar talent at a different level than anyone else out there--including JJ Watt, who was also on that same field as a freshman TE for CMU. AB wasn't even listed on the spring game roster. I was close to that coaching staff and heard the story about AB directly from the guy who recruited him to CMU, WR coach Zach Azzani. Just as I heard the story about JJ Watt directly from Butch Jones, who felt like the cat who ate the canary after getting JJ to flip from his Minnesota verbal to CMU. His direct quote--"this kid is a 5 star talent and nobody else knows about him"

AB was a star QB at Miami Norland, all state in 6A--the highest classification in FL-- and was being recruited by the big boys, who laid off him one by one due to his difficulties in school and upbringing. He was originally headed to FSU but did not qualify. Clemson and WVU were two more schools that were recruiting him hard. He ended up doing a prep year at he ended up at a very shady prep football factory called North Carolina Tech, which had only been in existence for a year or two before AB got there. It was like a home for wayward HS football recruits who had academic issues, off the field issues, etc. A prep school of last resort. Azzani brought AB to CMU and actually let AB live with he and his wife. AB didn't even have a scholarship in the spring when i first saw him, he had only been with the team for a few days.

Point being, he was easily a 4-5 star WR prospect while at Norland, but fell off the radar due to his circumstances. Butch Jones knew exactly what to do with him, that's for sure--just get him the ball in space as often as yo can and in as many ways as you can. .
 
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Jpripper88 said:
What does that have to do with what I said? Who said DE wasn't important? However, of those, I would probably rather have the dominant WR first and the DE second in college football.
Click to expand...

Your Top defensive teams have won the National Title yearly in college

2015-Alabama-1
2014-Ohio State-11
2013-Florida State-3
2012-Alabama-1
2011-Alabama-1
2010-Auburn-56
2009-Alabama-4
2009-Florida-2
2008-LSU-3

Do you notice a trend here?

Now, you can take it 1 step further with a little guy in the college football world like Michigan State. Take a look at the defensive lineman they have put in the NFL over the years. Defense, Defense, Defense.

Oregon will never win without a defense. Same with a lot of teams.

Now, you can point out Alabama is loaded everywhere. Well, Michigan State certainly isnt loaded everywhere, but they have won the Big Ten twice and beat Ohio State twice in the last 3 years.
 
steel_curtain said:
Your Top defensive teams have won the National Title yearly in college

2015-Alabama-1
2014-Ohio State-11
2013-Florida State-3
2012-Alabama-1
2011-Alabama-1
2010-Auburn-56
2009-Alabama-4
2009-Florida-2
2008-LSU-3

Do you notice a trend here?

Now, you can take it 1 step further with a little guy in the college football world like Michigan State. Take a look at the defensive lineman they have put in the NFL over the years. Defense, Defense, Defense.

Oregon will never win without a defense. Same with a lot of teams.

Now, you can point out Alabama is loaded everywhere. Well, Michigan State certainly isnt loaded everywhere, but they have won the Big Ten twice and beat Ohio State twice in the last 3 years.
Click to expand...
Well, Michigan State certainly isnt loaded everywhere, but they have won the Big Ten twice and beat Ohio State twice in the last 3 years

Bama is loaded everywhere. Look what happened when they played MSU.

Also, the SEC champion has won 7 of those 9 NCs you list and played for one more. In fact, 2014 was the only NC game since 2006 that did not involve the SEC champion. Alabama alone has four of them. All of those teams were loaded with high end talent all over the field, not just on defense. 7 out of the last 11 NC games since 2006 were won by two coaches--Saban and Meyer. Notice any trends there?
 
thebadby2 said:
Well, Michigan State certainly isnt loaded everywhere, but they have won the Big Ten twice and beat Ohio State twice in the last 3 years

Bama is loaded everywhere. Look what happened when they played MSU.

Also, the SEC champion has won 7 of those 9 NCs you list and played for one more. In fact, 2014 was the only NC game since 2006 that did not involve the SEC champion. Alabama alone has four of them. All of those teams were loaded with high end talent all over the field, not just on defense. 7 out of the last 11 NC games since 2006 were won by two coaches--Saban and Meyer. Notice any trends there?
Click to expand...

Yea. The trend is they always have a top ranked defense. Neither has some type of juggernaut offense.
 
steel_curtain said:
Yea. The trend is they always have a top ranked defense. Neither has some type of juggernaut offense.
Click to expand...
Wisconsin had the #2 D last year. How did they fare against Bama? Blown out. BC had the #1 defense in the country last year. They went 3-9.

Look, I don't disagree with you that strong defense is critical. But the reason those SEC schools win most of the championships is because they have better players than everyone else, on both sides of the ball. Meyer and Saban are the best coaches out there, but they didn't get to national championships when they were at Utah, MSU, etc.
 
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Silly to say defense doesnt matter.

Of course defense matters greatly. Everyone has a hard time beating bama
 
thebadby2 said:
Wisconsin had the #2 D last year. How did they fare against Bama? Blown out. BC had the #1 defense in the country last year. They went 3-9.

Look, I don't disagree with you that strong defense is critical. But the reason those SEC schools win most of the championships is because they have better players than everyone else, on both sides of the ball. Meyer and Saban are the best coaches out there, but they didn't get to national championships when they were at Utah, MSU, etc.
Click to expand...

Why are you using Alabama with regard to every point you bring to the table? Alabama beats almost everyone. The other or next best teams have the best defense.

And Utah didnt get a fare chance to win the National Title just like TCU over the years. But they did rape Alabama when they played them in the Sugar I think it was. Total beatdown by Utah.

And using two examples is rather weak when you dont factor in strength of schedule. Wisconsin is notorious for playing one of the weakest schedules in the country and steering from legit opponents, Alabama aside.
 
Swervin27 said:
Ben wasn't a QB til his senior year. His coach must have been an idiot.. Actually his coach was his dad..
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No, his coach was the dad of the kid who started ahead of him his junior year.

That's why Ben didn't start until his senior year.
 
As a side note--when considering star ratings for HS kids. Big kids, especially OL and DL, TEs, LBs who are more physically mature in HS tend to get higher rated in stars than the guys who have to put on a beef in college to reach their potential.

Huge and ripped in HS gets more stars than light for their frame or big and flabby. The latter type guys need the college weight training and nutrition to become as big and ripped as the former--in other words they need more time to develop physically. The "art" in recruiting big guys is to find the guys with potential to have pro size and strength by their RS junior or RS senior year but aren't ready for prime time out of HS or early in their college careers.
 
I noticed on one of the "star" evaluation sites that , as of last week Navy's was listed at number 99 with one "two star" recruit. Now, what was the final score in the military bowl game? With the right coaching and play calling that maximizes the talent of the players, lower rated players, playing as a team, can be successful against higher rated players.
 
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