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Saturday Bubble Viewing Guide - March 12

UPitt '89

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Pitt's chances moved up from 49.7% to 54.9% on teamrankings.com, a healthy bump that reflects the good day that yesterday was for our Panthers.

Friday's Losers

George Washington
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The loss to St. Joe's eliminated GW. Down to 0.5%.

Cincinnati
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Even with the excruciating loss to UConn, the Bearcats only dropped to 87.4%. They're likely still in.

Houston
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The Cougars were eliminated with their loss yesterday. Down to 1.6%.

Tulsa
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Painful loss last night to Memphis dropped their chance from 54.6% to 40.9%.

Ohio State
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The Spartans eliminated the Buckeyes from championship consideration, much like in football. Down to 9.0%.

Florida
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The Gators needed at least one more win. They didn't get it against Texas A&M. Down to 11.7%.

St. Bonaventure
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Their late collapse against Davidson dropped them down a seed line perhaps, but they're still likely in at 94.0%.

South Carolina
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Crushing loss to Georgia dropped them all the way down to just 12.0%.

Friday's Winners

St. Joseph's
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The Fightin' Lunardis are in. Up to 92.8%.

VCU
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The Rams are on the cusp of lock. 89.9%.

Temple
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Teamrankings thinks they're in now, at 95.5%.

UConn
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They're thrilling improbable win pushed them up to 91.5%.

Michigan
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Their big win over Indiana jumped them up to 62.5%. A win against Purdue today puts them in, a loss drops them below 50%.

Saturday's Bubble Games

Michigan (RPI: 54 Chances: 62.5%)
vs Purdue
1:00, CBS
- The big one today for Pitt. Go Boilermakers!

Connecticut (RPI: 45 Chances: 91.5%)
vs Temple (RPI: 59 Chances: 89.9%)
3:00, ESPN2
- Both are probably in. But it would be better for Pitt if UConn won. Go Huskies!

Georgia (RPI: 60 Chances: 18.5%)
vs Kentucky
3:00, ESPN
- All of a sudden, the Bulldogs are back on the bubble watch. Go Wildcats!

Davidson (RPI: 57 Chances: 10.8%)
vs VCU (RPI: 41 Chances: 89.9%)
4:00, CBSSN
- Davidson could help Pitt one more time by winning today. It would make them a Top 50 RPI team and also likely drop VCU behind Pitt in seeding. Go Wildcats!
 
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If Michigan goes down today the worry should be totally gone. Just a matter of seeding if that happens.
 
If Temple loses today their RPI drops to 64. If it does then they are going to have a hard time getting in. 89.9% is nowhere close to their actual percentage at the moment.
 
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If Temple loses today their RPI drops to 64. If it does then they are going to have a hard time getting in. 89.9% is nowhere close to their actual percentage at the moment.

TeamRankings %s are autobid+at-large. Any team that is still in their conference tournament is "artificially" high as compared to Pitt.
 
TeamRankings %s are autobid+at-large. Any team that is still in their conference tournament is "artificially" high as compared to Pitt.


I understand that. But let's look at this logically. For instance Pomeroy only has them with a 30% chance to beat UConn today (Sagarin's got them right around the same), and then they'd have to win another one after that. Temple is also an underdog in Vegas, so no matter how you look at it their chance for the auto bid is well less than 50%, because their chance to win today is well less than 50%. Let's be generous to them and say that they have a 40% chance to win today, but if they do win today that they are a stone cold lock no matter what happens tomorrow. That means that to get to 89.9% you have to think that they have approximately an 85% chance to make the tournament even with a loss today, which leaves them sitting there tomorrow with an RPI of 64. To put that into perspective, I believe that would be the second worst RPI ever to make the field as an at large team. Do you really think that they have an 85-ish% chance to make the field with an RPI that low? I not only don't think that's the case, I don't think it's even close to being the "right" number. The "right" number might be half of that. It might be lower than half of that. But if it was half of that that would put their chances at around 65%. And quite frankly I think that number would still be too high, but at least it's in the general ballpark. 89.9% is so far off that it's kind of laughable.
 
I understand that. But let's look at this logically. For instance Pomeroy only has them with a 30% chance to beat UConn today (Sagarin's got them right around the same), and then they'd have to win another one after that. Temple is also an underdog in Vegas, so no matter how you look at it their chance for the auto bid is well less than 50%, because their chance to win today is well less than 50%. Let's be generous to them and say that they have a 40% chance to win today, but if they do win today that they are a stone cold lock no matter what happens tomorrow. That means that to get to 89.9% you have to think that they have approximately an 85% chance to make the tournament even with a loss today, which leaves them sitting there tomorrow with an RPI of 64. To put that into perspective, I believe that would be the second worst RPI ever to make the field as an at large team. Do you really think that they have an 85-ish% chance to make the field with an RPI that low? I not only don't think that's the case, I don't think it's even close to being the "right" number. The "right" number might be half of that. It might be lower than half of that. But if it was half of that that would put their chances at around 65%. And quite frankly I think that number would still be too high, but at least it's in the general ballpark. 89.9% is so far off that it's kind of laughable.

I've been saying this exact same thing for weeks. Many of these percentages are ridiculously far off. Not so long ago they had Providence at 42% to get in even though it was pretty much accepted all they needed to do was beat DePaul and St Johns. Based on what the money lines were there was almost a 70% chance of them winning both those games. Add in that they had at least 2 other games to play as well that they would be favored in Providence's true percentage of getting in was probably around 80% at that moment.
 
I bet they still get in, might get Dayton though.
 
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