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Season comes down to this game?

S

Sean Miller Fan

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Oct 30, 2001
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I am 2 for 2 in predicting the season's outcome based on early-ish home game results.

2 years ago, I said the winner of our home game vs Wake would make the NCAAT and the loser would not. That turned out to be true.

Last year, after the Missouri loss, which at the time, really wasnt a terrible loss, I said if Pitt loses the next game (home vs Clemson), we won't make the NCAAT. It was early December but I didnt see enough Q1 opportunities left on the schedule. Turns out I was right and we missed it by 1 game.

So, I am attempting to go 3 for 3. If we win tomorrow, we will make the NCAAT. If we lose, we will not. Even if we lose, the WVU/OSU wins have given us so much capital that we still can potentially go 11-9 and make as the schedule eases up in February but I fear that a loss tomorrow will continue their slide. Confidence is big in college basketball. 1 game can make a huge difference. If we win tomorrow, I think we win 3 of the next 4 to get to 7-4 and are in really good shape to make it. If we lose, I think the season takes a turn for the worse.

Its been 11 years. Its time to finally beat Clemson! This is our last win:

 
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DruidTM said:
The Zoo needs to…

Well

Be the damn Zoo tomorrow… enough lameness

It’s simple jump up and down and be loud… put away the phone and scream
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How about the regular fans? Matchup of 2 teams currently in every projected NCAA field, yet, there will only be 6000 or 7000 non-students there.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
I am 2 for 2 in predicting the season's outcome based on early-ish home game results.

2 years ago, I said the winner of our home game vs Wake would make the NCAAT and the loser would not. That turned out to be true.

Last year, after the Missouri loss, which at the time, really wasnt a terrible loss, I said if Pitt loses the next game (home vs Clemson), we won't make the NCAAT. It was early December but I didnt see enough Q1 opportunities left on the schedule. Turns out I was right and we missed it by 1 game.

So, I am attempting to go 3 for 3. If we win tomorrow, we will make the NCAAT. If we lose, we will not. Even if we lose, the WVU/OSU wins have given us so much capital that we still can potentially go 11-9 and make as the schedule eases up in February but I fear that a loss tomorrow will continue their slide. Confidence is big in college basketball. 1 game can make a huge difference. If we win tomorrow, I think we win 3 of the next 4 to get to 7-4 and are in really good shape to make it. If we lose, I think the season takes a turn for the worse.

Its been 11 years. Its time to finally beat Clemson! This is our last win:

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Lol. You say & predict a lot of things. At one point last year, I'm pretty sure you said that Pitt had to win out to get to the tourney. Pretty sure that wasn't the case.
 
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Was the last win at Clemson that crazy game where Pitt came back from down like 6 in the last minute?
 
JD1976 said:
Was the last win at Clemson that crazy game where Pitt came back from down like 6 in the last minute?
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Yea. If we lose that game AND the 1st Round in the ACCT, we dont make it. As it ended up, we won that, beat Wake, beat UNC, and lost close to 1 seed UVa and STILL only got a 9. That was the year our NET (before NET) would have been like 15 and we would have been a 4 or 5 seed. But our RPI was in the 50s and that's what they used back then. The Vegas metrics loved us that year because all our losses were close and to really good teams and we blew teams out. But they used RPI.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
Yea. If we lose that game AND the 1st Round in the ACCT, we dont make it. As it ended up, we won that, beat Wake, beat UNC, and lost close to 1 seed UVa and STILL only got a 9. That was the year our NET (before NET) would have been like 15 and we would have been a 4 or 5 seed. But our RPI was in the 50s and that's what they used back then. The Vegas metrics loved us that year because all our losses were close and to really good teams and we blew teams out. But they used RPI.
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I predict a pretty easy Clemson victory. I think Pitt is a mess right now.
 
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PittPoker said:
I predict a pretty easy Clemson victory. I think Pitt is a mess right now.
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I think Pitt will play much better and it'll be close but at the end of the day, they have the 2 best players on the court and are used to winning, especially against us.

Clemson 78
Pitt 74

Hope I'm wrong.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
I think Pitt will play much better and it'll be close but at the end of the day, they have the 2 best players on the court and are used to winning, especially against us.

Clemson 78
Pitt 74

Hope I'm wrong.
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I think Clemson wins by around 8 and I also hope I'm wrong.
 
I mean, no it’s not the biggest game of the season. Pitt could win today and then come out and lose to Syracuse. That would be far more significant as far as March resumes go.
 
Ski11585 said:
I mean, no it’s not the biggest game of the season. Pitt could win today and then come out and lose to Syracuse. That would be far more significant as far as March resumes go.
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There is no game, and I mean literally none, ever, that is played in the middle of January that is the one game that makes or breaks a team as far as making the tournament goes.

What if we win today, and then lose the next three or four? What if we lose today, and then win the next six or seven?

This idea that you can pick out one early or mid-season game and say that that game is the ONE that is going to make or break a season, and then claim afterwards that you were proven to be correct, shows that someone absolutely does not understand the difference between correlation and causation.
 
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I hate to hate on one guy, but I really don't like Lowe, at all. He doesn't play defense, he's out of control, he doesn't play defense, he's not a great 3-pt shooter for the number of attempts, he doesn't play defense and he has these spurts of being a turnover machine. Thanks to him, these guys are done. DONE. Like I said a week ago, they can go ahead and turn down their NIT invite right now.

If I was the coach, I would just tell him to leave. It;s over. His ass ain't gonna be here next year so what is the point.
 
Cavalier Panther said:
Despite the fact there are 2 months of regular season left, this does feel do or die. 4 straight losses if we lose. If we don't figure out of today, I don't think we do.
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It may feel that way, but I think there are still plenty of opportunities left. They need to get the win at SU, scrap out a win against UNC at home, and a lot of fans jumping off the bandwagon will be back on board again. It sucks to drop conference home games, but this was a really tough 4 game stretch.
 
Lowe has definitely regressed, but the whole team and coaching staff has as well.

And this game did matter because we only have really one or two more games on the schedule we can prove ourselves. Unfortunately all of our toughest games in conference were jammed together early in the season so we had to win at least 2 of them. Instead we went 0-4 and now we have to win really almost every game left on the schedule just to be safely in. Losing today and going on a 6-7 game winning streak won't be enough if we loss more than 2-3 the rest of the way.

We have 13 games left and if we only win 10 of them we will be 13-7 and squarely on the bubble. Especially if we end up with no more Quad 2 wins or a dreaded quad 3 or 4 loss.

I'm not giving up on this team but they really have to start playing better. And the coaching staff has to coach and rotate the players better. You cannot go down by 10-15 early every game. It's ridiculous.
 
Gep Dawg said:
Lowe has definitely regressed, but the whole team and coaching staff has as well.

And this game did matter because we only have really one or two more games on the schedule we can prove ourselves. Unfortunately all of our toughest games in conference were jammed together early in the season so we had to win at least 2 of them. Instead we went 0-4 and now we have to win really almost every game left on the schedule just to be safely in. Losing today and going on a 6-7 game winning streak won't be enough if we loss more than 2-3 the rest of the way. We have 13 games left and if we only win 10 of them we will be 13-7 and squarely on the bubble. Especially if we end up with no more Quad 2 wins or a dreaded quad 3 or 4 loss.
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They haven't really regressed. Things are a little different when it comes to conference play & there's more preparation involved. This team was always going to be a bubble type team. That's just what it is.
 
TD_6082 said:
They haven't really regressed. Things are a little different when it comes to conference play & there's more preparation involved. This team was always going to be a bubble type team. That's just what it is.
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I disagree. They are not playing as well as they were early in the season. Are you watching the games? Sounds like you are disagreeing just to disagree. A team that was 12-2 playing a pretty tough non conference doesn’t lose 4 games in a row in conference without a dip in their play.
 
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These January home losses will likely define this season. Pitt had only 3 opportunities for key conference home wins on their schedule against Louisville, Clemson and UNC and are now 0-2. Their road schedule included games at Duke, FSU, UNC, SMU, Wake and Louisville. When you are a potential bubble team, you have to get the key home wins when you have a schedule like that.
 
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Gep Dawg said:
Lowe has definitely regressed,
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Regressed?? He doesn't give a shit. Period. In the second half there was one part where I nearly had a stroke. He jogged down on defense - I rewound it to make sure he didn't fall or get knocked... nothing. He just jogged down the court, was the LAST player to get down court allowing Clemson to play 5 on 4 for like 5 seconds. Of course they scored on a wide open 3.

That was it for me. This boy does NOT care. The only life I saw in him was when he's standing alone at the 3point line clapping his hands trying to get someone to pass him the ball. He needs to GO.
 
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Gep Dawg said:
I disagree. They are not playing well as they were early in the season. Are you watching the games? Sounds like you are disagreeing just to disagree. A team that was 12-2 playing a pretty tough non conference doesn’t lose 4 games in a row in conference without a dip in their play.
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This team proved to me today that it can defend when it wants to. They have been scouted hard in conference tho, and teams know that you keep Lowe and Ish out of the lane. If they can do that, they will win because we have nothing else. So maybe they haven't regressed, but, they sure haven't raised their level of play to meet the intensity that these conference teams are bringing. If they want to right the ship, we need to defend like we did in the later part of the 2nd half and couple it with ball movement and unselfishness. As a side note, it is hard to defend the whole game like we did late today without playing the bench. Having said that, our bench guys just are not ready to play great defense.
 
Gep Dawg said:
Lowe has definitely regressed, but the whole team and coaching staff has as well.

And this game did matter because we only have really one or two more games on the schedule we can prove ourselves. Unfortunately all of our toughest games in conference were jammed together early in the season so we had to win at least 2 of them. Instead we went 0-4 and now we have to win really almost every game left on the schedule just to be safely in. Losing today and going on a 6-7 game winning streak won't be enough if we loss more than 2-3 the rest of the way.

We have 13 games left and if we only win 10 of them we will be 13-7 and squarely on the bubble. Especially if we end up with no more Quad 2 wins or a dreaded quad 3 or 4 loss.

I'm not giving up on this team but they really have to start playing better. And the coaching staff has to coach and rotate the players better. You cannot go down by 10-15 early every game. It's ridiculous.
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13-7 and we are so safely in. 8 seedish.
 
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Pittisit4me said:
This team ain't finishing 10-3 unless their is an epiphany for Capel and the players. They need to see that our offense as currently operating, is not the answer.
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Well, yes, we arent going to 13-7 as I predicted earlier. But some out there are saying 13-7 is bubble. No.

13-7 = very safe

12-8 = Last 4 Byes or better

11-9 = Last 4 In/First 4 Out
 
Gep Dawg said:
I disagree. They are not playing as well as they were early in the season. Are you watching the games? Sounds like you are disagreeing just to disagree. A team that was 12-2 playing a pretty tough non conference doesn’t lose 4 games in a row in conference without a dip in their play.
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What exactly were you watching?

I don't put a whole lot of emphasis on the WVU game. Pitt was the first major opponent of the DeVries era. However, I did see the 4 game stretch against LSU, Wisconsin, tOSU, and Mississippi State. There was nothing in those 4 games that made me think this team was anything more than a typical bubble team. The only variable between back then and now is that Louisville & FSU are considerably better than I had originally thought they would be.
 
Who TF cares if this team gets in the tournament? Honest to balls. They'll serve as a real team's fluffer and be about as threatening as an elderly toothless squirrel.
 
TD_6082 said:
What exactly were you watching?

I don't put a whole lot of emphasis on the WVU game. Pitt was the first major opponent of the DeVries era. However, I did see the 4 game stretch against LSU, Wisconsin, tOSU, and Mississippi State. There was nothing in those 4 games that made me think this team was anything more than a typical bubble team. The only variable between back then and now is that Louisville & FSU are considerably better than I had originally thought they would be.
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I wish they were a bubble team at this point haha! I think we are probably saying the same thing just differently. Fair enough.
 
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