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Season Record Prediction

PITT_PANTHER17

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Who knows how many games we end up playing this season, but lets say we get 25 in, I'm going with a 15-10 record. 10-10 in the ACC. What's everyone feeling for the season?

I think X and Horton are a much better fit at the guard positions than X and Trey. We finally have the kind of depth that we haven't had since Jamie Dixon left. Last season we were on a good track to possibly be a bubble team and then had that collapse that I don't think we'll see this season due to the quality of depth now. The past few seasons we were stuck with Terrell Brown as a big man with really nothing behind him. When he had those games where he was just disinterested or got into foul trouble we had guys like Kene or Eric Hamilton last season to come off the bench and they just weren't ACC level type players. Now we have Big John who could potentially start for us and would then only need TB to come in to rebound and be a strong defensive presence in spurts. Also, as a freshman I thought AKC showed some promise as a solid rebounder and has some decent post moves last season. I personally like AKC better as a 4, but he's more than capable of giving minutes at center. Then we have big Max, he's definitely going to be a little bit raw early on, but in a recent clip he looks like he really put on some nice muscle and looks a lot more solid since he's arrived here. I haven't been this excited for a Pitt basketball season since the 2015-2016 season.
 
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5-0 OOC, 8-12 ACC for a 13-12 overall record.

I think there’s a super high variance, though, especially given the season’s inherent oddity. I could reasonably see anything from 6-14 ACC (the reasonable worst-case scenario) to 12-8 ACC (if we really break through). I tend to lean just a little more pessimistic because we won’t have any kind of home court advantage, and we’re going to be counting on a freshman to give big minutes at the hardest position for a freshman to give big minutes.
 
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Who knows how many games we end up playing this season, but lets say we get 25 in, I'm going with a 15-10 record. 10-10 in the ACC. What's everyone feeling for the season?

I think X and Horton are a much better fit at the guard positions than X and Trey. We finally have the kind of depth that we haven't had since Jamie Dixon left. Last season we were on a good track to possibly be a bubble team and then had that collapse that I don't think we'll see this season due to the quality of depth now. The past few seasons we were stuck with Terrell Brown as a big man with really nothing behind him. When he had those games where he was just disinterested or got into foul trouble we had guys like Kene or Eric Hamilton last season to come off the bench and they just weren't ACC level type players. Now we have Big John who could potentially start for us and would then only need TB to come in to rebound and be a strong defensive presence in spurts. Also, as a freshman I thought AKC showed some promise as a solid rebounder and has some decent post moves last season. I personally like AKC better as a 4, but he's more than capable of giving minutes at center. Then we have big Max, he's definitely going to be a little bit raw early on, but in a recent clip he looks like he really put on some nice muscle and looks a lot more solid since he's arrived here. I haven't been this excited for a Pitt basketball season since the 2015-2016 season.

I appreciate your optimism and excitement.

There's no doubt we have continued to add talent. It's now an ACC roster.

To the downside, we just didn't "play well" last year, and it's harder for me to get too enthused until I see our talent "playing well."

For me, I have to remember that we were 6-14 last year, tied for last in a substandard ACC, with two of our wins coming against unusually bad UNC team. I believe the overall quality of the league will improve, and therefore you must look for places to find our improvement to outpace others.

You have mentioned Horton, and obviously, so much of our success now rests on his shoulders.

Here's a link to what I believe is really good write-up on our Panthers.


Until I see differently, I will share a relatively similar viewpoint for this year.

As for predictions, I will go with 4-0 in our OOC games (all that are scheduled at this point), and something of a hopeful Blue and Gold glasses induced 8-12 in the ACC to finish the regular season at 12-12.
 
I have no idea how much they will play and what happens. I am excited I have to admit. I am really looking forward to and praying that next week's game comes off. As much fun as it was back in the 2000's knowing we had great teams returning, it is also quite exciting not knowing really anything but hopeful that the building is now really happening.
 
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I appreciate your optimism and excitement.

There's no doubt we have continued to add talent. It's now an ACC roster.

To the downside, we just didn't "play well" last year, and it's harder for me to get too enthused until I see our talent "playing well."

For me, I have to remember that we were 6-14 last year, tied for last in a substandard ACC, with two of our wins coming against unusually bad UNC team. I believe the overall quality of the league will improve, and therefore you must look for places to find our improvement to outpace others.

You have mentioned Horton, and obviously, so much of our success now rests on his shoulders.

Here's a link to what I believe is really good write-up on our Panthers.


Until I see differently, I will share a relatively similar viewpoint for this year.

As for predictions, I will go with 4-0 in our OOC games (all that are scheduled at this point), and something of a hopeful Blue and Gold glasses induced 8-12 in the ACC to finish the regular season at 12-12.
It’s like people don’t realize the talent that arrives into the ACC every year. John Hugley, our top rated recruit, there are 20 freshmen rated Higher than him signed with ACC Programs for 2020. There are at least 6/7 transfers that are rated higher than Horton.

Sure, we will be better than last year, but so will MANY MORE ACC programs
 
It’s like people don’t realize the talent that arrives into the ACC every year. John Hugley, our top rated recruit, there are 20 freshmen rated Higher than him signed with ACC Programs for 2020. There are at least 6/7 transfers that are rated higher than Horton.

Sure, we will be better than last year, but so will MANY MORE ACC programs

It's the reality that "6/7 transfers that are rated higher than Horton" that worries me the most. We are really counting on so much from him, to meet and surpass the production we received from Trey. But if you are one to believe those ratings, the two players aren't really close.

You also mentioned a similar problem with Big John.

However, in the other direction, Justin wouldn't have been rated among the League's best 25 freshman, and when it was all said and done, he was in the top 6.
 
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It's the reality that "6/7 transfers that are rated higher than Horton" that worries me the most. We are really counting on so much from him, to meet and surpass the production we received from Trey. But if you are one to believe those ratings, the two players aren't really close.

You also mentioned a similar problem with Big John.

However, in the other direction, Justin wouldn't have been rated among the League's best 25 freshman, and when it was all said and done, he was in the top 6.
There are always outliers in prospects. No doubt. There may be more transfers than that, the feed I read stopped there. Seems odd for the ACC to see that many transfers, but I don’t pay much attention.
 
Who knows how many games we end up playing this season, but lets say we get 25 in, I'm going with a 15-10 record. 10-10 in the ACC. What's everyone feeling for the season?

I think X and Horton are a much better fit at the guard positions than X and Trey. We finally have the kind of depth that we haven't had since Jamie Dixon left. Last season we were on a good track to possibly be a bubble team and then had that collapse that I don't think we'll see this season due to the quality of depth now. The past few seasons we were stuck with Terrell Brown as a big man with really nothing behind him. When he had those games where he was just disinterested or got into foul trouble we had guys like Kene or Eric Hamilton last season to come off the bench and they just weren't ACC level type players. Now we have Big John who could potentially start for us and would then only need TB to come in to rebound and be a strong defensive presence in spurts. Also, as a freshman I thought AKC showed some promise as a solid rebounder and has some decent post moves last season. I personally like AKC better as a 4, but he's more than capable of giving minutes at center. Then we have big Max, he's definitely going to be a little bit raw early on, but in a recent clip he looks like he really put on some nice muscle and looks a lot more solid since he's arrived here. I haven't been this excited for a Pitt basketball season since the 2015-2016 season.
8-12 and 5-0 for 13-12.
 
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I appreciate your optimism and excitement.

There's no doubt we have continued to add talent. It's now an ACC roster.

To the downside, we just didn't "play well" last year, and it's harder for me to get too enthused until I see our talent "playing well."

For me, I have to remember that we were 6-14 last year, tied for last in a substandard ACC, with two of our wins coming against unusually bad UNC team. I believe the overall quality of the league will improve, and therefore you must look for places to find our improvement to outpace others.

You have mentioned Horton, and obviously, so much of our success now rests on his shoulders.

Here's a link to what I believe is really good write-up on our Panthers.


Until I see differently, I will share a relatively similar viewpoint for this year.

As for predictions, I will go with 4-0 in our OOC games (all that are scheduled at this point), and something of a hopeful Blue and Gold glasses induced 8-12 in the ACC to finish the regular season at 12-12.
Info was great !!
 
IMHO, it is not all that useful to be concerned about the number of more highly rated players added to the league’s other teams as a problem for Pitt. There are various reasons that this view is far too simplistic.

1. The blue bloods at the top likely account for very many of the list of players rated more highly and we aren’t right now trying to match the top 2-4 teams in talent in the near term. We are trying to first move out of the bottom.

2. The positive effect of the newcomers to teams is offset by the loss of players who have graduated or otherwise moved out of the league.

3. How we faired in recruiting as compared to the bottom 1/3 of the league we are trying to move above is what is most important and not really how we did against the top half of the league. 0ur class was smack in the middle of the league and not just because we landed five players as some posters claimed to be the reason. Even comparing each teams top 3 players only we faired solidly at the middle.

4. Some of the more highly rated recruits for other teams may play positions at which we aren’t so weak so they may not add much edge, if any for those opponents. Some teams at the top may also have enough talent that some highly rated recruits may not be starters as freshmen.

5. A lot also depends on how well each team filled its most pressing needs. Pitt appears (on paper) to have done so by adding badly needed size and depth. Filling major needs even if not to the level of the top of the league can help more than would appear as solely measured by the talent levels of the recruits so long as this results in an overall incremental improvement in the area of pressing need.
 
IMHO, it is not all that useful to be concerned about the number of more highly rated players added to the league’s other teams as a problem for Pitt. There are various reasons that this view is far too simplistic.

1. The blue bloods at the top likely account for very many of the list of players rated more highly and we aren’t right now trying to match the top 2-4 teams in talent in the near term. We are trying to first move out of the bottom.

2. The positive effect of the newcomers to teams is offset by the loss of players who have graduated or otherwise moved out of the league.

3. How we faired in recruiting as compared to the bottom 1/3 of the league we are trying to move above is what is most important and not really how we did against the top half of the league. 0ur class was smack in the middle of the league and not just because we landed five players as some posters claimed to be the reason. Even comparing each teams top 3 players only we faired solidly at the middle.

4. Some of the more highly rated recruits for other teams may play positions at which we aren’t so weak so they may not add much edge, if any for those opponents. Some teams at the top may also have enough talent that some highly rated recruits may not be starters as freshmen.

5. A lot also depends on how well each team filled its most pressing needs. Pitt appears (on paper) to have done so by adding badly needed size and depth. Filling major needs even if not to the level of the top of the league can help more than would appear as solely measured by the talent levels of the recruits so long as this results in an overall incremental improvement in the area of pressing need.
The teams we are competing with brought in the majority of top transfers, your theories are flawed the whole way thru. We have finished in last place both years, recruited a middle of the road class and you expect some big leap? Maybe in 2021, but not this year.
 
The teams we are competing with brought in the majority of top transfers, your theories are flawed the whole way thru. We have finished in last place both years, recruited a middle of the road class and you expect some big leap? Maybe in 2021, but not this year.

I sure like the sound of a starting five of Johnson, Jeffress, Toney, Justin and Hughley -- NEXT year.
 
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I sure like the sound of a starting five of Johnson, Jeffress, Toney, Justin and Hughley -- NEXT year.
Hope I’m wrong, but I’m thinking John’s conditioning and ability to keep up with ACC speed will be a problem.

Next year, before anyone thinks I’m saying he’s a bust. Like a certain few who can’t handle realistic views
 
As DT said, we will have a better record than last year.

the keys are:

how does the coach use the roster with new talent.

can Horton score points at his postion

can somebody, perhaps Hugley, impose some defensive will at the 4-5 postion and both rebound and provide some scoring
 
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Hope I’m wrong, but I’m thinking John’s conditioning and ability to keep up with ACC speed will be a problem.

Next year, before anyone thinks I’m saying he’s a bust. Like a certain few who can’t handle realistic views

I was quite worried about John's mobility and conditioning based on a conversation I had with someone who would know in Sept of last year. However, I have since heard that he's come a long way in both areas.

Still, even if John clearly establishes himself as the clear cut best player at the 5, fans need to realize he's probably only going to play about 20 MPG.

If John starts, that's a very good thing. But a VERY successful year from John is something like 7-8 PPG, 5-6 RPG.
 
Yeah, I think a reasonable prediction is that, regardless of record, we’ll be a “better-looking” team that will probably grade out better in the various advanced per-possession metrics, and overall just look like a less disjointed team. I don’t know how that will end up playing out in the W/L columns, but I think it’s reasonable to step back at the end of 2020-2021 and be pretty excited about the team we’ll have coming back in 2021-22...in what will hopefully be a more “normal” season logistically - in other words, a season that we might all actually get to watch in person.
 
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Yeah, I think a reasonable prediction is that, regardless of record, we’ll be a “better-looking” team that will probably grade out better in the various advanced per-possession metrics, and overall just look like a less disjointed team. I don’t know how that will end up playing out in the W/L columns, but I think it’s reasonable to step back at the end of 2020-2021 and be pretty excited about the team we’ll have coming back in 2021-22...in what will hopefully be a more “normal” season logistically - in other words, a season that we might all actually get to watch in person.

I really hated watching the Syracuse and Georgia Tech games near the end of the season because both of those games had the feel of games within the absolutely dreadful 0-18 Stallings season. "Better looking" will be avoiding games like this.
 
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I was quite worried about John's mobility and conditioning based on a conversation I had with someone who would know in Sept of last year. However, I have since heard that he's come a long way in both areas.

Still, even if John clearly establishes himself as the clear cut best player at the 5, fans need to realize he's probably only going to play about 20 MPG.

If John starts, that's a very good thing. But a VERY successful year from John is something like 7-8 PPG, 5-6 RPG.

TB is averaging 5 ppg and 3.8 rpg... If we could get 7 and 5 out of John, PLUS TB with 15-20 solid backup minutes... that’d be HUGE for any chance we have at success in the ACC
 
We have had a freshman surprise every year so far under Capel, we will see another one?
 
I really hated watching the Syracuse and Georgia Tech games near the end of the season because both of those games had the feel of games within the absolutely dreadful 0-18 Stallings season. "Better looking" will be avoiding games like this.
That's just it. I want to see progress, some tangible (aka W's and L's) but yeah, just seeing better play. It is the eye test. If you can see some progress with our returnees and potential with our newcomers, that will bode well for next season when things hopefully return to a more normal.
 
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It’s like people don’t realize the talent that arrives into the ACC every year. John Hugley, our top rated recruit, there are 20 freshmen rated Higher than him signed with ACC Programs for 2020. There are at least 6/7 transfers that are rated higher than Horton.

Sure, we will be better than last year, but so will MANY MORE ACC programs
No doubt the ACC is loaded again this year, this is arguably the best basketball conference in the country every year at least at the top. However, I'm not saying we're going to beat out Duke, UNC, UVA, Louisville, or Florida State in the standings. My point is we were 6-7 last season in the ACC before the wheels fell off with 7 games left. Would it be that crazy to say with more talent and depth now that if we were in that same position again this season that we wouldn't lose all 7 of those remaining games and maybe go 3-4 or 4-3? Look, I'm by no means saying we're on par with the blue bloods in this conference in terms of talent, but I don't think right now we're worse than a Wake Forest, BC, Vtech, Notre Dame, Clemson, or Gtech. Games against any of those teams is really 50/50 chance of going either way, and I think you could maybe even put NC State and Miami in that category as well. I was being very optimistic saying 10-10 in the ACC, I realize a lot would have to go right for that to happen, but it's also not that far out in left field. If we didn't have that collapse last season, we would have been pretty close to it. I also realize John Hugley isn't some 5 star one and done stud, but I was comparing him to what we've had recently as depth at center, and yeah he's a pretty nice freaking upgrade. No, he's not going to go dominate against 5 star NBA centers at Duke and UNC, but it's not that wild to think he could compete against similar talent to himself at the BC's and Wake Forest's of the world.
 
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I think Collier is the most likely freshman surprise just by the nature of his game. High Motor, lots of athleticism and plays tough D. That is what gets you on the floor with Capel -- then with the rate we miss shots if he can crash the Offensive boards and get some put backs like Justin last year, I think he has a chance to contribute the most of the freshman -- Femi will be the 4th guard in this year if Nike gets his waiver, John will get minutes but playing the 5 is tough unless you are a blue chip freshman, he has the body for it, time will tell if he has the game to play ACC ball as a freshman and contribute at a high level -- for me expectations for John are 5-7 PPG and 4-5 RPG and averaging 15-20 mpg and developing through the year. Max is a pure project, Jeffress could also be a surprise but being so young may get caught in the #'s game with Toney/Champ/Drumgoole all filling similar roles. He would be my #2 pick as a "Surprise" freshman.

Collier
Jeffress
Hugley
Femi
Max

is my order of predicted production this year for the freshman.

Just really nice to have options this year. This year I agree with DT will be a better looking team, more complete team but still young and less talented than many of our ACC peers. Next year I think is when we have the larger move up in the standings to a mid-level ACC team, then recruiting / coaching will determine how high we can rise.

Glad to actually be able to discuss a season in whatever form it comes in.

Stay safe!
 
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I think Collier is the most likely freshman surprise just by the nature of his game. High Motor, lots of athleticism and plays tough D. That is what gets you on the floor with Capel -- then with the rate we miss shots if he can crash the Offensive boards and get some put backs like Justin last year, I think he has a chance to contribute the most of the freshman -- Femi will be the 4th guard in this year if Nike gets his waiver, John will get minutes but playing the 5 is tough unless you are a blue chip freshman, he has the body for it, time will tell if he has the game to play ACC ball as a freshman and contribute at a high level -- for me expectations for John are 5-7 PPG and 4-5 RPG and averaging 15-20 mpg and developing through the year. Max is a pure project, Jeffress could also be a surprise but being so young may get caught in the #'s game with Toney/Champ/Drumgoole all filling similar roles. He would be my #2 pick as a "Surprise" freshman.

Collier
Jeffress
Hugley
Femi
Max

is my order of predicted production this year for the freshman.

Just really nice to have options this year. This year I agree with DT will be a better looking team, more complete team but still young and less talented than many of our ACC peers. Next year I think is when we have the larger move up in the standings to a mid-level ACC team, then recruiting / coaching will determine how high we can rise.

Glad to actually be able to discuss a season in whatever form it comes in.

Stay safe!

No disrespect to Collier, but I just don't know where he gets minutes. Femi and Big John seem most likely to get minutes.
 
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Yep, I think Femi’s going to be the surprise pick...especially if we don’t have Sibande. Hard to see where Collier carves out enough minutes to really make the kind of “wow” freshman impact we’ve seen from guys in the last few years.
 
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IMHO, it is not all that useful to be concerned about the number of more highly rated players added to the league’s other teams as a problem for Pitt. There are various reasons that this view is far too simplistic.

1. The blue bloods at the top likely account for very many of the list of players rated more highly and we aren’t right now trying to match the top 2-4 teams in talent in the near term. We are trying to first move out of the bottom.

2. The positive effect of the newcomers to teams is offset by the loss of players who have graduated or otherwise moved out of the league.

3. How we faired in recruiting as compared to the bottom 1/3 of the league we are trying to move above is what is most important and not really how we did against the top half of the league. 0ur class was smack in the middle of the league and not just because we landed five players as some posters claimed to be the reason. Even comparing each teams top 3 players only we faired solidly at the middle.

4. Some of the more highly rated recruits for other teams may play positions at which we aren’t so weak so they may not add much edge, if any for those opponents. Some teams at the top may also have enough talent that some highly rated recruits may not be starters as freshmen.

5. A lot also depends on how well each team filled its most pressing needs. Pitt appears (on paper) to have done so by adding badly needed size and depth. Filling major needs even if not to the level of the top of the league can help more than would appear as solely measured by the talent levels of the recruits so long as this results in an overall incremental improvement in the area of pressing need.
Methinks no. 5 is the key for Pitt. If these recruits can contribute, their delta effect on Pitt will be greater than the teams that just restocked the same types of players. Regardless, I'm excited to see how they develop.
 
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I appreciate your optimism and excitement.

There's no doubt we have continued to add talent. It's now an ACC roster.

To the downside, we just didn't "play well" last year, and it's harder for me to get too enthused until I see our talent "playing well."

For me, I have to remember that we were 6-14 last year, tied for last in a substandard ACC, with two of our wins coming against unusually bad UNC team. I believe the overall quality of the league will improve, and therefore you must look for places to find our improvement to outpace others.

You have mentioned Horton, and obviously, so much of our success now rests on his shoulders.

Here's a link to what I believe is really good write-up on our Panthers.


Until I see differently, I will share a relatively similar viewpoint for this year.

As for predictions, I will go with 4-0 in our OOC games (all that are scheduled at this point), and something of a hopeful Blue and Gold glasses induced 8-12 in the ACC to finish the regular season at 12-12.

That was a sobering prediction.
 
That was a sobering prediction.

It was also a prediction by someone who believes Capel is a poor coach as it emphasizes his distant past head coaching results and implies he was at fault for last year’s team being worse in the computer rankings than the prior year’s team.

I am not buying this analysis because—

(1) I view last year’s problems as not and Xs and Os issue but primairily a function of the 3-point line being moved further out on a team already weak at shooting the 3-ball even from closer. The loss of JW Frame was huge, IMHO.

(2) A combination of seeing what looks to me like an excellent job over 2 seasons of getting the most out of a very talent limited and very thin roster; plus no credit being given for having learned anything as Coach K’s assistant. Capel’s prior coaching history is ancient history, IMHO.

This doesn’t mean I believe Pitt will take a gigantic leap forward. On the other hand I do believe Pitt should finish ahead of Norte Dame, and Boston College—-not just ahead of only Wake Forest as this analyst predicts— and possibly also ahead of Virginia Tech. I think this guy has Virginia Tech way way overrated.

I will be very disappointed if Pitt doesn’t move up a few places because I believe they are capable of doing that roster-wise.
 
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That was a sobering prediction.
Not sure why anyone would believe we will fare that much better? Unless you are delusional about the team for the upcoming season. Hopefully the large class gets some meaningful minutes to prepare for a bigger leap in 21/22.

We have finished dead last in Capel’s 2 seasons, we haven’t added any can’t miss prospects.. Anything higher than a 12th place finish is a bonus with this coaching staff and players.
 
Not sure why anyone would believe we will fare that much better? Unless you are delusional about the team for the upcoming season. Hopefully the large class gets some meaningful minutes to prepare for a bigger leap in 21/22.

We have finished dead last in Capel’s 2 seasons, we haven’t added any can’t miss prospects.. Anything higher than a 12th place finish is a bonus with this coaching staff and players.

Expecting an 11th or 12th place finish not a 14th. We have improved our roster enough to pass Norte Dame, Boston College and Wake Forest, IMHO.
 
Expecting an 11th or 12th place finish not a 14th. We have improved our roster enough to pass Norte Dame, Boston College and Wake Forest, IMHO.

I sure hope you are right. I will be indeed discouraged if we don't finish 11th or better. I really like Jeff Capel. I hope this is the year he starts cashing in on the mature messages and attitude he's brought to the program.
 
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