Serious question re: Jordan Addison

[YourPittDanceTeam]

Draft stock the same

Would have had better numbers here (sorry Cignetti haters)

Might have made the playoff here (seriously he could have been the difference in our losses)

Better chance of making the playoff there

Missed out on Pitt immortality.


Edit: ok I was so hyped over our hoops win last night and the USA match today, I didn’t even realize that USC played last night. So….about my comment about the USC chance of making the playoff…!!!!! I take that back! Lol.

I do have to ask, what makes you think that cignetti would have allowed Slovis to throw the ball to Addison if he had stayed?? I just don't think that cignetti would have changed his style that much.
May I add, I truly dislike what Addison did to the Pitt program. I think what he did sucked.
That being said, after watching the cignetti offense this year, I actually found myself rooting for the guy at USC the last half of the season. He didn't look great at USC this year, but compared to what his numbers would have been in this pathetic offense of cignetti's, he would have done worse here.

 

[Panther Parrothead]

It’s difficult to fix a defense in one offseason.

Offense you can grab some transfers and implement an easy college ready spread offense and see a quick turnaround.

You don’t see it as often on defense because defensive systems tend to be a little bit more difficult and tend to be far more talent driven.

True, but I'm talking about basic tackling. Good tackling is good tackling, whether it's high school, college or pro. And those USC guys couldn't have tackled my old Aunt Tillie who uses a walker.

 

[TD_6082]

I do have to ask, what makes you think that cignetti would have allowed Slovis to throw the ball to Addison if he had stayed?? I just don't think that cignetti would have changed his style that much.
May I add, I truly dislike what Addison did to the Pitt program. I think what he did sucked.
That being said, after watching the cignetti offense this year, I actually found myself rooting for the guy at USC the last half of the season. He didn't look great at USC this year, but compared to what his numbers would have been in this pathetic offense of cignetti's, he would have done worse here.

Because the offense is designed to throw downfield off play action and Addison can get open.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

I do have to ask, what makes you think that cignetti would have allowed Slovis to throw the ball to Addison if he had stayed?? I just don't think that cignetti would have changed his style that much.
May I add, I truly dislike what Addison did to the Pitt program. I think what he did sucked.
That being said, after watching the cignetti offense this year, I actually found myself rooting for the guy at USC the last half of the season. He didn't look great at USC this year, but compared to what his numbers would have been in this pathetic offense of cignetti's, he would have done worse here.

We will never know, but a receiver with half of Addison’s ability and half of his route running became the #1 receiver and had 55 receptions, 1000 yards, and 20 drops. I think it’s safe to say that those balls would have gone to Jordan.

 

[CJsE]

If I were a USC fan, today I'm thinking the ceiling on Riley is probably what he delivered at OU, and that has to be highly disappointing.

A bunch of conference championships? An offense that carried them to 4 playoff appearances? A bunch of 1-loss regular seasons? Out of conference wins vs top 10 teams?

There's only like 2-3 coaches above that ceiling.

 

[CJsE]

Come on, please, getting hurt your senior year of course hurts your draft stock. Don’t be a troll. God bless, you can’t possibly be serious

Before the season all of the draft board had him as mid 1st round, 2-3rd receiver taken.

During and after the season the draft boards have him as mid 1st round, 2-3rd receiver taken.

 

[PittInMissouri]

Not sure about how this year affects him, but NFL GMs are going to be aware that he is a mercenary that is going to only be committed to the paycheck. There’s no intangibles that he is going to bring to a team and as soon as he loses a step as he gets older - he’s going to have a rude awakening IMO. I’d advise him to save a lot of his second contract.

As far as Riley, let’s not forget he’ll be competing against tOSU and Michigan soon - don’t think there are any teams if that caliber in the pac 12…

 

[pittzap]

I do have to ask, what makes you think that cignetti would have allowed Slovis to throw the ball to Addison if he had stayed?? I just don't think that cignetti would have changed his style that much.
May I add, I truly dislike what Addison did to the Pitt program. I think what he did sucked.
That being said, after watching the cignetti offense this year, I actually found myself rooting for the guy at USC the last half of the season. He didn't look great at USC this year, but compared to what his numbers would have been in this pathetic offense of cignetti's, he would have done worse here.

They changed the offense because of the shortcomings of the QB and receivers. Throwing to Addison makes it easier than throwing to anyone else on the team. So, yes, I do believe they would have thrown more with Addison.

 

[cashisking884]

He never got it fixed in Oklahoma.

He had OU in the playoffs.

He never got the defense to an elite level capable of stopping the UGA of the worlds in the playoffs, but that’s a difficult recruiting spot. You aren’t stopping them unless you’re going to land the 5* DL recruits that are the equivalent of the 5* OL recruits lined up on the other side. And getting the Will Anderson type players isn’t easy at OU, because there are so few of them, and they aren’t in Oklahoma. It’s the same thing that held Brian Kelly back at ND.

 

[cashisking884]

If I were a USC fan, today I'm thinking the ceiling on Riley is probably what he delivered at OU, and that has to be highly disappointing.

Why would you think that?

 

[cashisking884]

True, but I'm talking about basic tackling. Good tackling is good tackling, whether it's high school, college or pro. And those USC guys couldn't have tackled my old Aunt Tillie who uses a walker.

Their defense is largely transfers and guys molded by the previous regime. Is it possible to completely change the culture and create a “tackling” mentality and teach these guys sound fundamentals in an offseason? Sure. It has been done.

But some coaches just need to start fresh from their players. Being the latter isn’t evidence that you’ll never be able to teach it and instill it.

 

[TD_6082]

Why would you think that?

His teams are soft upfront. He took OU to 3 playoff appearances and gave up an average of 54 points per game. 2 of those losses were embarrassments, much like last night.

You can only stay employed so long at USC with 2 loss seasons and the absence of a National Championship. I don't think he's going to deliver.

 

[DavidVC]

Before the season all of the draft board had him as mid 1st round, 2-3rd receiver taken.

During and after the season the draft boards have him as mid 1st round, 2-3rd receiver taken.

After the very average season he had this year, I would not be shocked to see Addison slip in the draft.
NFL GM's will question why his numbers dropped off so much, especially since he was at USC with C. Williams as his QB and L. Riley as his coach. It definitely raises some doubt.

Of course, the combine will be huge for him - if he runs superfast, then obviously he can still go high.
But if not, I would not be shocked to see him taken well later than the 2nd or 3rd WR.

For his sake, it's too bad he could not come out last year - obviously, after his huge year at Pitt, that was his peak value.

 

[NCanton Panther]

Before the season all of the draft board had him as mid 1st round, 2-3rd receiver taken.

During and after the season the draft boards have him as mid 1st round, 2-3rd receiver taken.

So you’re saying the move to USC hurt his draft stock then? Had he stayed at Pitt, he would have had a good bit better season, moved up to 1st/2nd receiver and improved his draft position and signing $.

 

[TD_6082]

A bunch of conference championships? An offense that carried them to 4 playoff appearances? A bunch of 1-loss regular seasons? Out of conference wins vs top 10 teams?

There's only like 2-3 coaches above that ceiling.

He took over a program at OU that was regularly winning 11 games and conference championships. Fair or not, he was hired at USC to do more. Conference championships and playoff appearances are expected. There is a reason we are hearing about Ryan Day's seat heating up.

 

[cashisking884]

His teams are soft upfront. He took OU to 3 playoff appearances and gave up an average of 54 points per game. 2 of those losses were embarrassments, much like last night.

You can only stay employed so long at USC with 2 loss seasons and the absence of a National Championship. I don't think he's going to deliver.

His defenses havent’ been great. I wouldn’t say his OLs have been soft at OU.


It’s difficult to build all the trenches at those bottom Tier I schools like OU, ND, PSU, Michigan, Oregon, etc. There’s so few elite ”5*, off the bus“ type recruits, and you probably aren’t getting a big enough share of them if you aren’t located in their region.

We will see if that remains the case at USC where he will have access to more of them. Although even California doesn’t produce a ton of elite trench recruits. So maybe that problem continues.

 

[cashisking884]

He took over a program at OU that was regularly winning 11 games and conference championships. Fair or not, he was hired at USC to do more. Conference championships and playoff appearances are expected. There is a reason we are hearing about Ryan Day's seat heating up.

Some of this is a little revisionism. OU had gotten stale under Stoops. The recruiting was falling behind and the on-field results weren’t great.

OU was in the spot they were in Riley took it over *because* of Riley. His offenses carried them. And his ability on the trail improved their recruiting.

 

[CJsE]

He took over a program at OU that was regularly winning 11 games and conference championships. Fair or not, he was hired at USC to do more. Conference championships and playoff appearances are expected. There is a reason we are hearing about Ryan Day's seat heating up.

So he took over an Oklahoma that won 2 Big 12 titles in the 5 years before he arrived, then he won 5 Big 12 titles in the next 5 years (1 as OC, 4 as HC).

He took over a USC team that went 4-8 last year and has had 2 losing seasons in the past 3 full seasons, and went 11-2 in his first season.

 

[CJsE]

After the very average season he had this year, I would not be shocked to see Addison slip in the draft.
NFL GM's will question why his numbers dropped off so much, especially since he was at USC with C. Williams as his QB and L. Riley as his coach. It definitely raises some doubt.

Of course, the combine will be huge for him - if he runs superfast, then obviously he can still go high.
But if not, I would not be shocked to see him taken well later than the 2nd or 3rd WR.

For his sake, it's too bad he could not come out last year - obviously, after his huge year at Pitt, that was his peak value.

The receiver expected to go 1st overall is Qunetin Johnson from TCU. He had 86 targets, 901 yards, and 5 TDs this season.

Addison is expected to go 2nd overall. He had 79 targets, 875 yards, and 8TDs.

The receiver expected to go 3rd overall is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He was injured most of the year with 8 targets, 39 yards, and 0 TDs.

Stats aren't even close to the most important thing for scouts and GMs. They aren't going to be wondering at all why his stats fell off, they will know exactly why and if it was because his skills fell off. When looking at spending a 1st round pick, they are going to watch every route he ran this year. If he runs a 4.4 or better he'll go in the exact same spot as if he had 1,500 yards this year and ran a 4.4.

 

[TD_6082]

Some of this is a little revisionism. OU had gotten stale under Stoops. The recruiting was falling behind and the on-field results weren’t great.

OU was in the spot they were in Riley took it over *because* of Riley. His offenses carried them. And his ability on the trail improved their recruiting.

The went 8-5 the year before Riley took over as OC. The previous 4 years they won 11, 10, 10, and 12.

But I agree, it was getting stale, mostly because OU was no longer taken seriously as a National Title contender.

I think Riley brought that back, but after last year's disappointing results and the move to the SEC, I didn't think there was a lot of confidence in Norman that he would ever get it done.

Maybe he can at USC. I doubt it though. I don't think he has it. His teams aren't physical enough.

 

[TD_6082]

So he took over an Oklahoma that won 2 Big 12 titles in the 5 years before he arrived, then he won 5 Big 12 titles in the next 5 years (1 as OC, 4 as HC).

He took over a USC team that went 4-8 last year and has had 2 losing seasons in the past 3 full seasons, and went 11-2 in his first season.

A quick turnaround in a candy ass conference. A 6-6 Florida team beat Utah.

Sonny Dykes had a better year one, and he didn't even have to raid players from his former team.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Stats aren't even close to the most important thing for scouts and GMs.

I think in a couple months where Smith-Njigba gets drafted is going to show that not only is it not close to the most important thing, it carries almost no importance at all. Like on a scale of 1-10, maybe a .5.

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Did they? 11-2 in Riley Year 1, a QB who’s a Heisman frontrunner and they played for their conference championship and were in the playoff conversation until they lost that championship.

They won a total of 9 games the previous 2 years.

I don’t think many Trojan fans are viewing this season as a failure. And Riley is just getting started.

While I agree, one of those two years you referenced (2020) USC was 5-1 and lost in the P12 Championship to Utah... COVID year. Shortened season. Arguably could've went 9-3 or 10-2 or even 11-1 that year with a complete schedule. Your post makes it seem like they went 5-7 that year. Not the case. They were unmistakably bad in 2021 though (4-8) playing a full slate of 12 games though. Ironically, as we know, Slovis was their starting QB both seasons.

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

I do have to ask, what makes you think that cignetti would have allowed Slovis to throw the ball to Addison if he had stayed?? I just don't think that cignetti would have changed his style that much.
May I add, I truly dislike what Addison did to the Pitt program. I think what he did sucked.
That being said, after watching the cignetti offense this year, I actually found myself rooting for the guy at USC the last half of the season. He didn't look great at USC this year, but compared to what his numbers would have been in this pathetic offense of cignetti's, he would have done worse here.

Because Wayne had more yards and receptions than Addison had at USC for Pitt this season. You think Addison somehow wouldn't have had bigger numbers than Wayne here this season? Wayne played in 11 of 12 games at Pitt in '22... Addison played 11 of 13 games at USC in '22 so both played in 11 games. Wayne had 135+ yards more receiving than Addison and the same # of catches this year at Pitt than he had at USC.

I imagine Addison would've had something like 1200+ yards and 70+ catches if in Pitt's O this year. Slovis locked into top targets. He'd have thrown it to Addison to a fault of he was here at Pitt still.

Or, maybe you didn't realize Wayne had 1012 yards and 55 catches this season for Pitt? Addison had 875 yards and 59 catches for USC this season. That includes yesterday's loss in the bonus game to Utah.

So, yes, he'd have put up better numbers at Pitt this year then he put up at USC this year... Heck, Wayne had better numbers than in Cignetti's O this year.

So, again, Jared friggin' Wayne statistically did exactly what you said Cigs wouldn't let Addison do this season in Pitt's offense... Yes... I think Cignetti would've allowed it. I'm no huge Cignetti fan but seriously, again, did you not realize Pitt had a 1000+ yard receiver this season? Said WR is nowhere near the talent of Addison either. Love Wayne but he's no Addison.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

The receiver expected to go 1st overall is Qunetin Johnson from TCU. He had 86 targets, 901 yards, and 5 TDs this season.

Addison is expected to go 2nd overall. He had 79 targets, 875 yards, and 8TDs.

The receiver expected to go 3rd overall is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He was injured most of the year with 8 targets, 39 yards, and 0 TDs.

Stats aren't even close to the most important thing for scouts and GMs. They aren't going to be wondering at all why his stats fell off, they will know exactly why and if it was because his skills fell off. When looking at spending a 1st round pick, they are going to watch every route he ran this year. If he runs a 4.4 or better he'll go in the exact same spot as if he had 1,500 yards this year and ran a 4.4.

Smith-Njigba will probably go ahead of Addison if has a really good combine. He was viewed as the best pro prospect out of their stud trio last year.

 

[TD_6082]

Because Wayne had more yards and receptions than Addison had at USC for Pitt this season. You think Addison somehow wouldn't have had bigger numbers than Wayne here this season? Wayne played in 11 of 12 games at Pitt in '22... Addison played 12 of 13 games at USC in '22 so both played in 11 games. Wayne had 200 yards more receiving than Addison and 10 more catches this year at Pitt than he had at USC.

I imagine Addison would've had something like 1200+ yards and 70+ catches if in Pitt's O this year. Slovis locked into top targets. He'd have thrown it to Addison to a fault of he was here at Pitt still.

Yep.

In the article about Slovis 2023, he mentioned that who was coming back would weigh into his decision. I automatically took that to mean Wayne.

Addison would have had plenty of opportunities in this offense. No doubt about.

On one hand, I get it. He did pretty much everything he could do at Pitt. Same reason I won't be surprised if Drake Maye moves on to Bama next year. And he has a little deeper roots at UNC. I don't like it, but that's where we're at today.

 

[DavidVC]

I think in a couple months where Smith-Njigba gets drafted is going to show that not only is it not close to the most important thing, it carries almost no importance at all. Like on a scale of 1-10, maybe a .5.

You guys are funny if you think GMs don't look at stats and on-field performance.

Smith-Njigba has been hurt all year - of course his stats won't count - he doesn't have any!
Neither did George Pickens. This isn't the same for Addison.

When you have a player play all their games, in 2 different seasons, and the latest season saw a drop-off, then I am 1000% certain that GMs will look at it. There will be uncertainty. The guy went from Belitnikoff winner to not even the #1 WR on his team the next year.

But sure - go ahead and compare players who have been hurt all year to make your point about stats. Your argument is meaningless.

 

[YourPittDanceTeam]

Because the offense is designed to throw downfield off play action and Addison can get op

Just wondering what exactly do you consider to be downfield throws?

 

[YourPittDanceTeam]

They changed the offense because of the shortcomings of the QB and receivers. Throwing to Addison makes it easier than throwing to anyone else on the team. So, yes, I do believe they would have thrown more with Addison.

If I am not mistaken, they changed the offense because they brought in the wrong OC for the type of offense that the players were used to playing here under Whipple. Even the freaking experienced veteran OL looked like crap most of the year. Much easier to block on a running play then it is on a pass.

 

[thebadby2]

G

He never got it fixed in Oklahoma.

he never had to.

 

[thebadby2]

Not sure about how this year affects him, but NFL GMs are going to be aware that he is a mercenary that is going to only be committed to the paycheck. There’s no intangibles that he is going to bring to a team and as soon as he loses a step as he gets older - he’s going to have a rude awakening IMO. I’d advise him to save a lot of his second contract.

As far as Riley, let’s not forget he’ll be competing against tOSU and Michigan soon - don’t think there are any teams if that caliber in the pac 12…

LOL. Are you like 85?

 

[thebadby2]

He had OU in the playoffs.

He never got the defense to an elite level capable of stopping the UGA of the worlds in the playoffs, but that’s a difficult recruiting spot. You aren’t stopping them unless you’re going to land the 5* DL recruits that are the equivalent of the 5* OL recruits lined up on the other side. And getting the Will Anderson type players isn’t easy at OU, because there are so few of them, and they aren’t in Oklahoma. It’s the same thing that held Brian Kelly back at ND.

Agree. And neither Riley nor Kelly have those constraints anymore.

 

[thebadby2]

They changed the offense because of the shortcomings of the QB and receivers. Throwing to Addison makes it easier than throwing to anyone else on the team. So, yes, I do believe they would have thrown more with Addison.

I don’t think we would’ve thrown it more with Addison. But we would have thrown it a bit better for sure. What impact that might have had on the big picture is anyone’s guess.

 

[revampedpanthers]

His 40 time will pretty much decide if he goes mid 1st round or slips to late 1st/early 2nd.

Will be somewhat of a red flag if he pulls the “opted not to run” card.

This production was there his last year at Pitt even just a ok performance this year keeps him high but his forty time is the biggest factor. If he runs a 4.3 he's a top 20 pick a 4.5 and he goes around 40

 

[steelcurtain55.]

It’s difficult to build all the trenches at those bottom Tier I schools like OU, ND, PSU, Michigan, Oregon, etc. There’s so few elite ”5*, off the bus“ type recruits, and you probably aren’t getting a big enough share of them if you aren’t located in their region.

How did teams like:

Stanford
Wisconsin
Iowa

build tremendous OL's in years' past? I'm sure they weren't littered with 4-5 star types in most years. I'd be willing to bet most were 3 star types.

Go back and watch the 1995 Nebraska OL. Most of those guys were local 3 star type players.

http://sportstreatise.com/2018/01/1995-nebraska-and-the-myth-of-championship-recruiting/

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

You guys are funny if you think GMs don't look at stats and on-field performance.

They absolutely look at on field performance. No one has said otherwise. They absolutely do not care about the stats. As has been shown, year after year, draft after draft. If they see a guy who is running good routes and has the speed and gets open all the time and his quarterback can't get him the ball, or his team just doesn't throw much, or he misses time injured, or whatever, they don't care that the guy doesn't have the numbers. They care that he can play. Similarly every year there are guys with gaudy stats who don't get drafted high, and in some cases don't get drafted at all, because NFL GMs don't care that the guy put up big numbers, they care if he is going to be able to play at the next level.

A GM who drafts based on stats isn't going to be a GM for long, because his drafts are going to be awful.

 

[thebadby2]

His defenses havent’ been great. I wouldn’t say his OLs have been soft at OU.


difficult to build all the trenches at those bottom Tier I schools like OU, ND, PSU, Michigan, Oregon, etc. There’s so few elite ”5*, off the bus“ type recruits, and you probably aren’t getting a big enough share of them if you aren’t located in their region.

We will see if that remains the case at USC where he will have access to more of them. Although even California doesn’t produce a ton of elite trench recruits. So maybe that problem continues.

It’s difficult to build all the trenches at those bottom Tier I schools like OU, ND, PSU, Michigan, Oregon, etc.

I don’t completely agree with this, at least as far as offensive linemen are concerned. Three of the programs you list historically have strong OLs and are in the top 5 in putting OLs into the NFL: Michigan, ND, and Oklahoma.

 

[CJsE]

You guys are funny if you think GMs don't look at stats and on-field performance.

Smith-Njigba has been hurt all year - of course his stats won't count - he doesn't have any!
Neither did George Pickens. This isn't the same for Addison.

When you have a player play all their games, in 2 different seasons, and the latest season saw a drop-off, then I am 1000% certain that GMs will look at it. There will be uncertainty. The guy went from Belitnikoff winner to not even the #1 WR on his team the next year.

But sure - go ahead and compare players who have been hurt all year to make your point about stats. Your argument is meaningless.

The GM looks at his drop in stats then turns to their scouts and says "explain".

Then the scouts look at every snap and route from the video packages provided by the university.

Then they go to their web portals for custom statistics/analytics packages provided by PFF, ESPN, and other bespoke analytics firms that every NFL team has on payroll.

Then they create a dossier to explain every step that player made during their college career.

So no, his stats don't matter unless his actual on-field performance matched the drop in stats. He has already proven that he can put up the numbers.

 

[joeydavid]

I do have to ask, what makes you think that cignetti would have allowed Slovis to throw the ball to Addison if he had stayed?? I just don't think that cignetti would have changed his style that much.
May I add, I truly dislike what Addison did to the Pitt program. I think what he did sucked.
That being said, after watching the cignetti offense this year, I actually found myself rooting for the guy at USC the last half of the season. He didn't look great at USC this year, but compared to what his numbers would have been in this pathetic offense of cignetti's, he would have done worse here.

All of is this is just silly.

 

[USN_Panther]

True, but I'm talking about basic tackling. Good tackling is good tackling, whether it's high school, college or pro. And those USC guys couldn't have tackled my old Aunt Tillie who uses a walker.

Have you ever tackled someone using a walker? It's not easy. The spin moves it allows are crazy. You got back post or front post on both sides. The backpost spin allows the post to be firmly planted and the walker becomes an additional blocker.