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Serious question re: Jordan Addison

Just wondering what exactly do you consider to be downfield throws?
Wayne averaged 18.5 yards per catch this season and had 1000+ yards and close to 60 receptions. Addison would've had better numbers than Wayne in this offense. Again, I have many, many issues with Cigs and Slovis this season but Pitt just literally had a less talented WR do what you're saying Addison wouldn't not have been allowed to do as WR1 in this offense. Statistically, Wayne had a better season than Addison did this season. Again, Cigs has warts plenty of them. But, his O can and literally just did produce a 1000+ yard WR1.
 
Wayne averaged 18.5 yards per catch this season and had 1000+ yards and close to 60 receptions. Addison would've had better numbers than Wayne in this offense. Again, I have many, many issues with Cigs and Slovis this season but Pitt just literally had a less talented WR do what you're saying Addison wouldn't not have been allowed to do as WR1 in this offense. Statistically, Wayne had a better season than Addison did this season. Again, Cigs has warts plenty of them. But, his O can and literally just did produce a 1000+ yard WR1.
Don't most Power 5 programs have at least one 1,000 year receiver on their team?
 
Don't most Power 5 programs have at least one 1,000 year receiver on their team?
Some don't. Depends on how much they spread it around and how deep they are at WR. My only contention was your earlier comment about Cignetti and his offense would not have allowed for Addison to have a big year (1000+ yards) in his offense this season. The irony being a game, solid, reliable but far less talented Jared Wayne literally did just that even with extremely uneven play at the QB position at Pitt this season.

Even with his warts as an OC, Cignetti would've absolutely featured Addison a bit more than he did Wayne. Addison likely puts up 1200+ and 10+ TDs in this same exact offense at Pitt this season. Further irony being Wayne actually had a superior season statistically than Addison did this year at USC. Addison finished with 875 yards playing in the same number of games as Wayne.

My assumption is you simply didn't realize that Wayne actually had a pretty impressive season statistically at WR or you'd have never made that initial comment.
 
Nope..

By my count, only 14 players total 1,000 yards receiving at the power 5 level this year.
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/455

Pretty impressive production by Cigs and company when you consider Wayne was hurt this year. Even more impressive was it was all done while running a high school offense.
As much as I'd like to do the research, but I won't because it really doesn't change my belief that cignetti runs a high school offense. I did look for a minute and saw at the FBS level of NCAA football, and saw that on an individual basis, there were 26 WR's who caught over 1,000 yards. Wayne was 24th.
It does sound as if you are trying to credit cignetti's high school offense with Wayne's individual success and I don't think that is fair to relate the two together. I do believe that a much better comparison to see how cignetti's offense compares with other teams at the FBS level of football is to look at where the Pitt Passing Offense ranks in the NCAA Statistics. Currently, out of 131 FBS schools, the Pitt Passing game ranks 79th. I don't think that is very impressive.
 
They absolutely look at on field performance. No one has said otherwise. They absolutely do not care about the stats. As has been shown, year after year, draft after draft. If they see a guy who is running good routes and has the speed and gets open all the time and his quarterback can't get him the ball, or his team just doesn't throw much, or he misses time injured, or whatever, they don't care that the guy doesn't have the numbers. They care that he can play. Similarly every year there are guys with gaudy stats who don't get drafted high, and in some cases don't get drafted at all, because NFL GMs don't care that the guy put up big numbers, they care if he is going to be able to play at the next level.

A GM who drafts based on stats isn't going to be a GM for long, because his drafts are going to be awful.
Another straw man. No one said a GM drafts only on stats alone - that's retarded. The point is, his performance this year has slipped. It did. He's not even the #1 WR on his own team.

His performance this year, with an elite offense and an elite QB, definitely raises questions. His QB didn't have problems "getting him the ball" - and his team threw A TON. (It's Lincoln Riley, after all)

Some GM's may wonder if Addison was simply a product of KP8's stellar year last year and not vice versa. His sub-par performance this year, in a super high-powered offense, definitely raises questions.

I am certain he will not be drafted in the first half of round 1. And may fall out of Round 1 altogether.
 
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Another straw man. No one said a GM drafts only on stats alone - that's retarded. The point is, his performance this year has slipped. It did. He's not even the #1 WR on his own team.

His performance this year, with an elite offense and an elite QB, definitely raises questions. His QB didn't have problems "getting him the ball" - and his team threw A TON. (It's Lincoln Riley, after all)

Some GM's may wonder if Addison was simply a product of KP8's stellar year last year and not vice versa. His sub-par performance this year, in a super high-powered offense, definitely raises questions.

I am certain he will not be drafted in the first half of round 1. And may fall out of Round 1 altogether.
He was #1 on USC in targets, receptions, yards, TDs, yards after the catch, yards per game, receptions per game, and yards per route. He had the lowest drop rate among the 7 USC receivers over 15 receptions. He was the #1 deep target on the team. He has the highest draft grade on the team.

So I'm confused how he wasn't the #1 receiver on his team. Maybe someone as knowledgeable as you could enlighten me.
 
He was #1 on USC in targets, receptions, yards, TDs, yards after the catch, yards per game, receptions per game, and yards per route. He had the lowest drop rate among the 7 USC receivers over 15 receptions. He was the #1 deep target on the team. He has the highest draft grade on the team.

So I'm confused how he wasn't the #1 receiver on his team. Maybe someone as knowledgeable as you could enlighten me.
So suddenly, stats matter to you? Haha
You can contort those stats to say whatever you want - Bottom Line: Addison was not elite this year.

Let's see where he gets drafted -
 
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How did teams like:

Stanford
Wisconsin
Iowa

build tremendous OL's in years' past? I'm sure they weren't littered with 4-5 star types in most years. I'd be willing to bet most were 3 star types.

Go back and watch the 1995 Nebraska OL. Most of those guys were local 3 star type players.

http://sportstreatise.com/2018/01/1995-nebraska-and-the-myth-of-championship-recruiting/

1. None of those programs sustained it.

2. None were playing southern teams or high ranking recruiting class teams on even a monthly sis’s.

and there aren’t any lessons anyone can take from the ‘91-‘94 recruiting landscape.
 
So suddenly, stats matter to you? Haha
You can contort those stats to say whatever you want - Bottom Line: Addison was not elite this year.

Let's see where he gets drafted -
You'd think someone that accuses someone of"straw man" would be familiar with tu quoque.
 
He was #1 on USC in targets, receptions, yards, TDs, yards after the catch, yards per game, receptions per game, and yards per route. He had the lowest drop rate among the 7 USC receivers over 15 receptions. He was the #1 deep target on the team. He has the highest draft grade on the team.

So I'm confused how he wasn't the #1 receiver on his team. Maybe someone as knowledgeable as you could enlighten me.
Let’s get back to basics….
2 + 2 = 4 Basic Math

2021 Statistics:

Catches: 100
Yards: 1,593
TD’s: 17
ACC Championship
Biletnikoff Award

2022 Statistics:

Catches: 59
Yards: 875 (178 of them in one game)
TD’s: 8
No Championship
No Awards

He had a down year. He’s still talented, but

2021 > 2022

His season was a failure. He still has his money, but it will be a pittance compared to what he will make soon. He alienated the Pitt fans, the alum and tarnished his legacy. If he wants to be friends with alumni, he can start with OJ. It wasn’t worth the transfer.

The book on Addison is CLOSED in my opinion… Unless he plays for the Steelers, I won’t be rooting for him. He is a Trojan and I normally. don’t root for them….

The meister has spoken!
 
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Draft stock the same

Would have had better numbers here (sorry Cignetti haters)

Might have made the playoff here (seriously he could have been the difference in our losses)

Better chance of making the playoff there

Missed out on Pitt immortality.


Edit: ok I was so hyped over our hoops win last night and the USA match today, I didn’t even realize that USC played last night. So….about my comment about the USC chance of making the playoff…!!!!! I take that back! Lol.
No...actually you were right - he did have a better chance of making the playoffs there - all they had to do was punt but Riley got greedy and the snowball went downhill.
 
Let’s get back to basics….
2 + 2 = 4 Basic Math

2021 Statistics:

Catches: 100
Yards: 1,593
TD’s: 17
ACC Championship
Biletnikoff Award

2022 Statistics:

Catches: 59
Yards: 875 (178 of them in one game)
TD’s: 8
No Championship
No Awards

He had a down year. He’s still talented, but

2021 > 2022

His season was a failure. He still has his money, but it will be a pittance compared to what he will make soon. He alienated the Pitt fans, the alum and tarnished his legacy. If he wants to be friends with alumni, he can start with OJ. It wasn’t worth the transfer.

The book on Addison is CLOSED in my opinion… Unless he plays for the Steelers, I won’t be rooting for him. He is a Trojan and I normally. don’t root for them….

The meister has spoken!
Literally no one is arguing that last season wasn't better. This thread is about draft stock and he had nothing to prove this year. He showed he still knew how to put one foot in front of the other. His 40-time at the combine will determine everything.

But if you want to invent arguments that you can win by stating the obvious, I'd suggest doing so in the shower like everyone else.
 
Literally no one is arguing that last season wasn't better. This thread is about draft stock and he had nothing to prove this year. He showed he still knew how to put one foot in front of the other. His 40-time at the combine will determine everything.

But if you want to invent arguments that you can win by stating the obvious, I'd suggest doing so in the shower like everyone else.
Actually, this thread is about whether his down year at USC will affect the perception of him as a player and whether that will impact his draft stock. I think it will.

With Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams and a weak PAC12, I think everyone was expecting a huge year from Addison. He didn't deliver.

And yes, for some GMs, his 40 time will dominate their thinking, for better or worse.
 
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1. None of those programs sustained it.

2. None were playing southern teams or high ranking recruiting class teams on even a monthly sis’s.

and there aren’t any lessons anyone can take from the ‘91-‘94 recruiting landscape.
None of them sustained it?

Wisconsin has been running the ball consistently with a "HS offense" from the time Alvarez started to now.

You might want to go back and look at Stanford from 2007 to 2018. You might want to check on the ranked teams they played during that time. 12 years seems pretty consistent to me.

Sure you can learn lessons from the 91-94 recruiting landscape. The myth is that Nebraska was reeling in the HS All American's when in reality that wasn't the case..
 
Did they? 11-2 in Riley Year 1, a QB who’s a Heisman frontrunner and they played for their conference championship and were in the playoff conversation until they lost that championship.

They won a total of 9 games the previous 2 years.

I don’t think many Trojan fans are viewing this season as a failure. And Riley is just getting started.
Wake me up when he beats a good team … a really good team. I figured 7-5,6-6 but that’s when I thought they had a schedule… and I didn’t realize it was 27 players from the portal when I thought that.
 
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Hit the nail on the head. His teams never play great defense and are soft
That Trojan OL certainly didn’t look like they gave a damn about protecting Willams in the PAC12CG last Friday.

Maybe they decided the difference in pay scale between them and Caleb wasn’t fair?

Differences in $$$$$ for players might set up a whole new set of circumstances for some CFB programs? Will be be interesting to observe what effects this could have moving forward.
 
None of them sustained it?

Wisconsin has been running the ball consistently with a "HS offense" from the time Alvarez started to now.

You might want to go back and look at Stanford from 2007 to 2018. You might want to check on the ranked teams they played during that time. 12 years seems pretty consistent to me.

Sure you can learn lessons from the 91-94 recruiting landscape. The myth is that Nebraska was reeling in the HS All American's when in reality that wasn't the case..

None of this is true.

Wisconsin was a nice team, largely propped up by the Midwest teams they played, that never threatened to actually break through and join the elites.

Same thing for Stanford, except replace Midwest with west coast teams.

Those teams would have been absolutely feasted on in the SEC.

And there’s no myth that Nebraska had elite recruiting classes. Instead what people acknowledge is the recruiting class industry was a lot different back then.
 
None of this is true.
If you say so...
Wisconsin was a nice team, largely propped up by the Midwest teams they played, that never threatened to actually break through and join the elites.
Are we talking offenses, running games, what???

I thought we were talking OL?

Wisconsin's OL would have been just fine in the SEC, otherwise they wouldn't have put (by my count) 33 OL in the NFL since Alvarez and many of those guys lasted a long time. They also put 12 TE's in the league as well.
Same thing for Stanford, except replace Midwest with west coast teams.
Same things goes for Stanford. They put 9 OL in the NFL during that time frame and also put in 9 TE's in the NFL during that time frame too. They're good enough for the NFL but not the SEC?
Do you think Stanford outrecruited USC, Oregon, Notre Dame, etc during that time frame?
Those teams would have been absolutely feasted on in the SEC.
The team might have not beaten the Bama's and LSU's but it wouldn't be due to the OL not being able to produce.
And there’s no myth that Nebraska had elite recruiting classes. Instead what people acknowledge is the recruiting class industry was a lot different back then.
Sure there is. People have talked about for decades as to why Nebraska isn't where they used to be. They talk about how they were able to attract top out of state prospects where they can't now. When in reality, Nebraska's core was made up of mid-level recruits, especially on the OL. Go out buy "The Assembly Line" by Milt Tenopir (RIP). You'll gain a different perspective on how Nebraska recruited that position. Osborne had no problem recruiting OL who didn't pass the eyeball test. He was notorious for having short OL.
 
If you say so...

Are we talking offenses, running games, what???

I thought we were talking OL?

Wisconsin's OL would have been just fine in the SEC, otherwise they wouldn't have put (by my count) 33 OL in the NFL since Alvarez and many of those guys lasted a long time. They also put 12 TE's in the league as well.

Same things goes for Stanford. They put 9 OL in the NFL during that time frame and also put in 9 TE's in the NFL during that time frame too. They're good enough for the NFL but not the SEC?
Do you think Stanford outrecruited USC, Oregon, Notre Dame, etc during that time frame?

The team might have not beaten the Bama's and LSU's but it wouldn't be due to the OL not being able to produce.

Sure there is. People have talked about for decades as to why Nebraska isn't where they used to be. They talk about how they were able to attract top out of state prospects where they can't now. When in reality, Nebraska's core was made up of mid-level recruits, especially on the OL. Go out buy "The Assembly Line" by Milt Tenopir (RIP). You'll gain a different perspective on how Nebraska recruited that position. Osborne had no problem recruiting OL who didn't pass the eyeball test. He was notorious for having short OL.

You’re making this way more difficult than it needs to be.

At *no point* did any of the teams you listed, build up the *trenches* in a way that would allow them to withstand the onslaught of the legit top Tier I schools.

Not a single one of them. If you want to argue that one of them maybe built up an OL that would have been just good enough, I don’t really care. Because that’s not what I said.

The rest of this is just you and I using too many words to address a point I didn’t make.
 
You’re making this way more difficult than it needs to be.

At *no point* did any of the teams you listed, build up the *trenches* in a way that would allow them to withstand the onslaught of the legit top Tier I schools.

Not a single one of them. If you want to argue that one of them maybe built up an OL that would have been just good enough, I don’t really care. Because that’s not what I said.

The rest of this is just you and I using too many words to address a point I didn’t make.
??? Nebraska?

Nebraska flat out dominated the SEC back in the day. Before Steven C. Peterson forced them to modernize their offense.
 
??? Nebraska?

Nebraska flat out dominated the SEC back in the day. Before Steven C. Peterson forced them to modernize their offense.

Yeah, I didn’t bring up Nebraska. He brought up Nebraska has a Tier I school. I fully concede that until the end of the ‘90s, Nebraska was a Top 2 program.

My point as it relates to Nebraska was you can’t take any lessons from them as it relates to recruiting. The landscape has changed too much. The world is a complete 180 from when Nebraska was recruiting to an elite level.
 
It’s difficult to build all the trenches at those bottom Tier I schools like OU, ND, PSU, Michigan, Oregon, etc.

At *no point* did any of the teams you listed, build up the *trenches* in a way that would allow them to withstand the onslaught of the legit top Tier I schools.
I'm not sure I understand your argument.

From what I understood is that you were saying that you can't recruit and/or develop the type of OL that Michigan currently has. Michigan will playing for a MNC this year. I firmly believe and have shown that you can do what Michigan has done from an OL perspective. Now whether you can the QB's/RB's/DB's etc that is an entirely different matter.
 
I'm not sure I understand your argument.

From what I understood is that you were saying that you can't recruit and/or develop the type of OL that Michigan currently has. Michigan will playing for a MNC this year. I firmly believe and have shown that you can do what Michigan has done from an OL perspective. Now whether you can the QB's/RB's/DB's etc that is an entirely different matter.
Is the national championship mythical this year? Other than Nick Saban, who thinks his team is way better than all others but he still coached them to two losses. I'd say winning this playoff is pretty legit.
 
Yeah, I didn’t bring up Nebraska. He brought up Nebraska has a Tier I school. I fully concede that until the end of the ‘90s, Nebraska was a Top 2 program.

My point as it relates to Nebraska was you can’t take any lessons from them as it relates to recruiting. The landscape has changed too much. The world is a complete 180 from when Nebraska was recruiting to an elite level.
Yeah but the point still resonates. Nebraska wasn't landing these mega blue chip OL that the other schools were and they were abusing future NFL front 7's week and week out.

If you really research, Nebraska wasn't recruiting at the level Notre Dame, FSU, Miami, Michigan, OSU, etc were during their historic run - especially along the OL. That is my point.

What in the recruiting landscape has changed so much from 1999 till now? I'm not saying things are the same because they aren't. But what are the 180 degree changes in recruiting that prevent teams doing what Nebraska was doing during that time frame?
 
I'm not sure I understand your argument.

From what I understood is that you were saying that you can't recruit and/or develop the type of OL that Michigan currently has. Michigan will playing for a MNC this year. I firmly believe and have shown that you can do what Michigan has done from an OL perspective. Now whether you can the QB's/RB's/DB's etc that is an entirely different matter.

I didn’t say that. I actually said the opposite. Which is why I defended OU’s OL under Riley, while still pointing to OU has an example of a school that it’s difficult to build up the *trenches* to go toe to toe with the top tier schools.

And Michigan’s OL is fine. UGA laughs at it though. Just as it did last year.
 
Yeah but the point still resonates. Nebraska wasn't landing these mega blue chip OL that the other schools were and they were abusing future NFL front 7's week and week out.

If you really research, Nebraska wasn't recruiting at the level Notre Dame, FSU, Miami, Michigan, OSU, etc were during their historic run - especially along the OL. That is my point.

What in the recruiting landscape has changed so much from 1999 till now? I'm not saying things are the same because they aren't. But what are the 180 degree changes in recruiting that prevent teams doing what Nebraska was doing during that time frame?

Nebraska’s downfall occurred before 1999, at least on the recruiting trail. Which is why they collapsed after 2001. The recruiting landscape had already changed on them.

And my answer to what has changed is everything. Which is why, outside of OSU, NC contenders shifted away from teams so far removed from talent hubs.
 
No bashing, flaming, etc.

Did his draft stock go, down, or stay the same as a result of transferring to USC and playing with Riley and Williams this season? Is he still a first round pick? Also, would he have put up better/worse/similar numbers had he stayed at Pitt?

Final stat line with two games missed:
- 54 receptions
- 810 yards
- 15 yards/reception
- 8 touchdowns

Speaking as someone who follows NFL prospects very closely in general and Addison in particular:

I think his draft stock generally stayed the same. He wasn't as productive (he probably couldn't have been anywhere given that our pass rate + Pickett's talent and lack of other options was a true sweet spot for him) but the NFL won't care about that. They'll like his early production, dominant sophomore year, and that his film his junior year was still good. His size will still be a concern.

Where Addison got EXTREMELY lucky is that Jaxon Smith-Njigba was hurt and missed the entire year and Kayshon Boutte flopped and then went back to school. There's a WR from TCU named Quentin Johnson who is good but he won't have Addison's overall resume. Johnson still might be WR1 in the eyes of NFL teams. Sometimes they draft based on traits that I don't care as much about because I'm playing high dollar fantasy football and they're drafting dudes to run actual routes for an offense.

If Addison had his 2022 season against the 2022 NFL draft class of Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Olave, etc., Addison would be a 2nd round pick. But because the overall class is much weaker, he should still be a 1st round guy.
 
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Actually, this thread is about whether his down year at USC will affect the perception of him as a player and whether that will impact his draft stock. I think it will.

With Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams and a weak PAC12, I think everyone was expecting a huge year from Addison. He didn't deliver.

And yes, for some GMs, his 40 time will dominate their thinking, for better or worse.
With every new post of yours in this thread, it seems apparent that you were not aware that Addison got hurt in mid-October and missed appx. 1/3 of USC's offensive snaps on the season due to injury. Even most of the games he played in after he got hurt in the first Utah game, he was never 100% and could barely get any reps at all in his first two games back from the two straight he missed entirely due to injury.

Addison is one of those special players, different than the other guys on the field. The biggest potential problem for him from the draft standpoint is his health. 40 time will be important, but I think the NFL evaluators all recognize that he has football speed and has no problem getting separation anywhere on the field including on deep routes. Kind of like an Antonio Brown but without the mental illness. He's too small, he doesn't have elite speed, etc. Yet all he does is keep producing big and making catches other guys can't make, over and over.
 
I'm not sure I understand your argument.

From what I understood is that you were saying that you can't recruit and/or develop the type of OL that Michigan currently has. Michigan will playing for a MNC this year. I firmly believe and have shown that you can do what Michigan has done from an OL perspective. Now whether you can the QB's/RB's/DB's etc that is an entirely different matter.
Sure, it's easy to build Michigan's O line. All you need are high 4 star OL recruits all the way across, and the second highest paid OL coach in the country to coach em up.

Actually, if we're splitting hairs, only 4 of the 5 were 4 stars--the center wasn't but he was a 3 year starter, Rimington finalist, 2nd team all-American and first team all-ACC player at UVA before he grad transferred to Mich. And circling back to an earlier thread where we both agreed, both of the Mich OTs were H.S. tight ends/punters/DEs and excellent HS basketball and baseball players. In fact, Ryan Hayes (brother of former Pitt OL signee Connor Hayes) was a pro pitching prospect.

So it isn't exactly like they built that unit with a bunch of average Joes like the guys PItt rolls out there. Pitt doesn't have one OL in its 3 deep that could start at Michigan the past 2 years.
 
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Pitt doesn't have one OL in its 3 deep that could start at Michigan the past 2 years.

I agree but we've produced guys over the past 10 years or so that would start for them.

If we recruited those guys before, we can recruit them again.

BTW - Our highest NFL draftee along the OL under Duzz was a former TE (O'Neil).
 
With every new post of yours in this thread, it seems apparent that you were not aware that Addison got hurt in mid-October and missed appx. 1/3 of USC's offensive snaps on the season due to injury. Even most of the games he played in after he got hurt in the first Utah game, he was never 100% and could barely get any reps at all in his first two games back from the two straight he missed entirely due to injury.

Addison is one of those special players, different than the other guys on the field. The biggest potential problem for him from the draft standpoint is his health. 40 time will be important, but I think the NFL evaluators all recognize that he has football speed and has no problem getting separation anywhere on the field including on deep routes. Kind of like an Antonio Brown but without the mental illness. He's too small, he doesn't have elite speed, etc. Yet all he does is keep producing big and making catches other guys can't make, over and over.
Addison's per snap production was pretty damn close to what it was last year.
2.78 yards per route vs 2.94.
% of routes thrown to - 25% vs 27%
YAC/reception 7 vs 6.6.
Drop rate 3.3% vs 9.9%.
Routes per touchdown 39.4 vs 31.82.
Yards per reception 14.8 vs 15.9.

The biggest drop off for this season was simply that he ran far fewer routes due to injury and not being overused while recovering. He ran 315 routes in 2022 vs 541 in 2021.
 
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I agree but we've produced guys over the past 10 years or so that would start for them.

If we recruited those guys before, we can recruit them again.

BTW - Our highest NFL draftee along the OL under Duzz was a former TE (O'Neil).
Right--and you and I see that the same way. Find tall, athletic, long armed guys who can move their feet and have the frame to put on weight, and mold them into OTs. Those big strong dudes who were great H.S. tackles slide nicely into the interior OL positions. I think little Central MIchigan has had about 5 tackles drafted in the first two rounds the past 10 years or so (including the #1 overall pick in Eric Fisher) and they were all converted former H.S. TEs, QBs, DEs and basketball players who came out of HS at under 250 pounds.
 
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