Last year, every P6 team (except Xavier I believe) was seeded +/- 2 seed lines after you take out the teams right around or below .500 who had no chance of making it and the mid-majors who are typically seeded much lower than their NETs due to their unique resumes. Lets see how that would work this year.
1 - Hou, UConn, Pur, Az
2 - Ten, Aub, Bama, Iowa State
3 - UNC, Duke, Creigh, BYU
4 - Baylor, Marq, Ill, Gonzaga
5 - SMC, Kansas, SDSU, Ky
6 - Dayton, MSU, Wis, Boise
7 - Clem, Nova, Tex, *****UNM****
8 - *****Indiana St*****, Col, Wake, Miss St
9- Florida, *****CSU****, *****FAU****, ****USU****
10 - Wash St, TCU, SJU, ****Nevada****
11 - OU, TT, Neb, Pitt, Cin, Utah
Next teams who could get in:
South Carolina - lock but terrible NET due to lack of blowouts
Drake - the MVC may get 2 regardless
UVa
JMU - if they dont win Sun Belt
NW - probably in
GCU/McNeese - could they get in if they dont win their leagues? Probably not
Iowa
Ohio St
Prov
Oregon
SHU
Richmond - could win A10
Ole Miss
USF
Syracuse
Analysis: 1st 6 seed lines above are locks including Gonzaga who some people dont have in. Their NET is just too great
When you get to the 7 line, Texas probably locked up a bid yesterday. Nova is in right now because their NET is too good so you can't justify dropping them 5 seed lines and out of the NCAAT. They are at SHU and home with Creighton. If they lose both and finish 17-14, I cant see them getting in. But at 18-13, with a good NET, they are probably in. New Mexico has a great NET but falls under that non-P6 who gets moved down. 81 of 104 bracketologists have them in compared to only 4 for Pitt but this is solely due to their great NET of 28. Their quads suck. This is a team that can get left out.
8 line - those teams, including Wake cant fall 5 seed lines and out of the tournament. Now, if Wake loses at home vs GT and Clem, they are out but they are going to win at least 1 of those.
9 line - Florida is a lock. BTW, I was essentially correct in November when I said Pitt/UF was the 7/10 game with the winner playing 2 seed Baylor. The other 3 9s are non-P6 so they can drop 3 and out of the tournament. CSU is pretty safe with 5 Q1s. USU has only 3. FAU's resume kind of sucks. 103 out of 104 bracketologists have them in but they have 1 Q1 win and a Q3 and Q4 loss. I could see them not making it.
10 line - Wash St us safe. TCU, SJU and Nevada can drop 2 and out of the tournament. If TCU loses at WVU or vs UCF, they might be out. They are 3-10 vs Q1. If they lose both, they are probably done. I think they win both though.
11 line - OU, TT, and Neb are locks. Cin has a ton of work to do. Pitt and Utah are on the bubble.
Other teams
South Carolina - lock
NW - probably a lock
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Of the teams that are in the field, here are the teams who are not locks IMO
Nova - need to win 1 this week
UNM
Col/Wake - great NETs, 1 Q1 win. Probably just need 1 more win due to great NET
CSU
USU
FAU
TCU
SJU
Nevada
Pitt
Cin
Utah
Those are your final 13. But then SC and NW will knock 2 out. That would be Cincy and someone else.
Pitt has to win the next 4 to be relatively safe. If we go 3-1, I dont think we make it but we have a chance. The bubble resumes are the strongest I think I've ever seen. I wonder how much of that is due to coaches "coaching blowouts." Like Syr has a better resume than Wake but they are 50 spots lower in the NET due to the blowout factor. Last year, you had more teams like Syracuse. But now you habe the likes of Wake and Colorado with ridiculously good NETs plus the whole B12.
27 teams for the last 11 spots. That's a lot of teams who still have a shot.
1 - Hou, UConn, Pur, Az
2 - Ten, Aub, Bama, Iowa State
3 - UNC, Duke, Creigh, BYU
4 - Baylor, Marq, Ill, Gonzaga
5 - SMC, Kansas, SDSU, Ky
6 - Dayton, MSU, Wis, Boise
7 - Clem, Nova, Tex, *****UNM****
8 - *****Indiana St*****, Col, Wake, Miss St
9- Florida, *****CSU****, *****FAU****, ****USU****
10 - Wash St, TCU, SJU, ****Nevada****
11 - OU, TT, Neb, Pitt, Cin, Utah
Next teams who could get in:
South Carolina - lock but terrible NET due to lack of blowouts
Drake - the MVC may get 2 regardless
UVa
JMU - if they dont win Sun Belt
NW - probably in
GCU/McNeese - could they get in if they dont win their leagues? Probably not
Iowa
Ohio St
Prov
Oregon
SHU
Richmond - could win A10
Ole Miss
USF
Syracuse
Analysis: 1st 6 seed lines above are locks including Gonzaga who some people dont have in. Their NET is just too great
When you get to the 7 line, Texas probably locked up a bid yesterday. Nova is in right now because their NET is too good so you can't justify dropping them 5 seed lines and out of the NCAAT. They are at SHU and home with Creighton. If they lose both and finish 17-14, I cant see them getting in. But at 18-13, with a good NET, they are probably in. New Mexico has a great NET but falls under that non-P6 who gets moved down. 81 of 104 bracketologists have them in compared to only 4 for Pitt but this is solely due to their great NET of 28. Their quads suck. This is a team that can get left out.
8 line - those teams, including Wake cant fall 5 seed lines and out of the tournament. Now, if Wake loses at home vs GT and Clem, they are out but they are going to win at least 1 of those.
9 line - Florida is a lock. BTW, I was essentially correct in November when I said Pitt/UF was the 7/10 game with the winner playing 2 seed Baylor. The other 3 9s are non-P6 so they can drop 3 and out of the tournament. CSU is pretty safe with 5 Q1s. USU has only 3. FAU's resume kind of sucks. 103 out of 104 bracketologists have them in but they have 1 Q1 win and a Q3 and Q4 loss. I could see them not making it.
10 line - Wash St us safe. TCU, SJU and Nevada can drop 2 and out of the tournament. If TCU loses at WVU or vs UCF, they might be out. They are 3-10 vs Q1. If they lose both, they are probably done. I think they win both though.
11 line - OU, TT, and Neb are locks. Cin has a ton of work to do. Pitt and Utah are on the bubble.
Other teams
South Carolina - lock
NW - probably a lock
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Of the teams that are in the field, here are the teams who are not locks IMO
Nova - need to win 1 this week
UNM
Col/Wake - great NETs, 1 Q1 win. Probably just need 1 more win due to great NET
CSU
USU
FAU
TCU
SJU
Nevada
Pitt
Cin
Utah
Those are your final 13. But then SC and NW will knock 2 out. That would be Cincy and someone else.
Pitt has to win the next 4 to be relatively safe. If we go 3-1, I dont think we make it but we have a chance. The bubble resumes are the strongest I think I've ever seen. I wonder how much of that is due to coaches "coaching blowouts." Like Syr has a better resume than Wake but they are 50 spots lower in the NET due to the blowout factor. Last year, you had more teams like Syracuse. But now you habe the likes of Wake and Colorado with ridiculously good NETs plus the whole B12.
27 teams for the last 11 spots. That's a lot of teams who still have a shot.
