Let's start with just a few general NIL thoughts. The concept is still difficult to grasp and there is a lot of misinformation out there.
- There are no checks and balances. This money is worse than the pros because at least in the professional sports, there is a salary cap or at least a system in place where teams have a very good idea of what a player will make. Some teams can't afford the player obviously, but they at least know what it would cost. In college right now, there is nothing. A player can simply ask for a million dollars and there is no way to accurately check if other schools are in the range. Other than just some gossip and connections, these programs literally have no clue. So let's just say one of Pitt's players tells Capel he wants $500K as an example. Or the player hits the portal and comes back to Capel and says it will take $500K. How can they possibly know some other school actually offered that? They don't. It is all bidding in the dark and it is really unfortunate. So a player in this situation could hypothetically get a school by a six-figure margin.
- The visits mean nothing anymore. I don't even look at the dates, lists, etc.. Is it a positive to get a visit? Sure I guess. But the visits are literally irrelevant. In most of these "visits," the sides are just getting to know each other a bit and finalizing the number it will take. Players don't need to visit a school to commit. Plans can change in one call. It can be as simple as an agent or representative getting a call back from a coach that talked to a booster after just confirming that they can collect the funds. The visits now are just different. Instead of touring the gym and classrooms, etc., they are basically drafting up an NIL plan.
- More kids than ever will return to their school after entering the portal. Making a move to the portal essentially allows the player to shop for the highest offer. That allows them to go back to the school and let them match. It can be done in good faith but have to think that it often isn't. Like I said, how can you verify any of this?
Also, anyone else wondering about the middlemen here? Some would be agents I guess? I don't even know who is allowed to be involved and negotiate these deals. But there has to be a ton of money staying with the people right? Selling the kid on a $500K deal and they are keeping whatever %.
When it comes to Pitt specifically, some notes;
- They are doing fairly well but are still way short of the targeted number. It is a moving target and a lot of variables at play, but it sounds like they basically have half of their goal at the moment. Remember, the initial goal was 2 million.
- The Bub Carrington money is not just sitting there for them. This was something a lot of people, including myself, incorrectly assumed. If Bub returned, he had his deal in place. That money would have been collected for him and it sounds like it was going to be covered by an individual. So basically, the person said if Bub comes back, I will take care of it. So now, they are back to square one in that sense. That money is not just free and available like open cap space. It would need to be fundraised again and it sounds like it would need to be for a specific player.
- They do not have that much money. That is just the reality. That is not to say that it is over and doom and gloom. Let's be real here. A lot of Pitt's recent players have outperformed their initial plan. Blake Hinson was a total gamble. Burton, Nelly, etc. All under the radar and didn't cost much money. They have done really well in the transfer market. So they can certainly do it again. So many good players out there and the money will start to dry up. Just have to be strategic and target the players that fit.
- There is obviously a lot of money invested in Jaland and Ish already. There will still be enough to land a few players. Corhen and Dunn are very realistic. Unless their demands have risen substantially, I believe the sides can make it work.
- The word is that Thiero wants big money. If the number is true, he will be way out of Pitt's price range. The kid and family are interested in Pitt, but there is an agent involved.
- The twins have had their NIL offer for a while now. Same with Austin. Pitt and the Alliance team set a number for each and are not going to budge. They really have learned that you need to stick to your plan and not let kids and their people stretch you. Sounds like they are still waiting to hear back on what these three are going to do. Would be very surprised if they are not back. Pitt has been more than fair with all three and have actually overpaid in my opinion. Don't think there is much of a market for any of them, especially when you consider that the twins are a packaged deal and Jorge is still in a boot.
- So right now, you basically have Jaland, Ish, Cummings, Kante, Ndiaye, Barnes. The twins and Austin likely to return. That would make 9. They probably need a center but it depends somewhat on their plan with Guillermo as well. I think Kante will be more than capable of playing 15 minutes. If you can't play Guillermo at the four at all, I'm not sure the best use of the funds would be at center. In that scenario, why not use the remaining money at the 4? Jorge can be your reserve there I guess. Corhen is a nice prospect and will help. But I still have to question who your main four is? Dunn is also a nice addition and I could even see him starting. They like to bring Ish off the bench. That is also a tough justification to pay him quite well and bring him off the bench. Regardless, they want four capable and experienced guards. Dunn would bring a lot as far as culture and experience too. That Houston program is on another level and he is a really old player. If they land both, that gives you 11. Then they still need a shooter. This can be a quality team that is very solid, but I'm not sure they have the funds to do what some people are hoping for.
- There is still a chance that a specific player could prompt one of the large whales to enter the game. That is the wildcard of course. I just don't know which players could initiate that. I've heard some possible sponsors, but there is not a large appetite for that at the moment. That could always change if the right opportunity is presented to them, but it is a real grind right now.
- There are no checks and balances. This money is worse than the pros because at least in the professional sports, there is a salary cap or at least a system in place where teams have a very good idea of what a player will make. Some teams can't afford the player obviously, but they at least know what it would cost. In college right now, there is nothing. A player can simply ask for a million dollars and there is no way to accurately check if other schools are in the range. Other than just some gossip and connections, these programs literally have no clue. So let's just say one of Pitt's players tells Capel he wants $500K as an example. Or the player hits the portal and comes back to Capel and says it will take $500K. How can they possibly know some other school actually offered that? They don't. It is all bidding in the dark and it is really unfortunate. So a player in this situation could hypothetically get a school by a six-figure margin.
- The visits mean nothing anymore. I don't even look at the dates, lists, etc.. Is it a positive to get a visit? Sure I guess. But the visits are literally irrelevant. In most of these "visits," the sides are just getting to know each other a bit and finalizing the number it will take. Players don't need to visit a school to commit. Plans can change in one call. It can be as simple as an agent or representative getting a call back from a coach that talked to a booster after just confirming that they can collect the funds. The visits now are just different. Instead of touring the gym and classrooms, etc., they are basically drafting up an NIL plan.
- More kids than ever will return to their school after entering the portal. Making a move to the portal essentially allows the player to shop for the highest offer. That allows them to go back to the school and let them match. It can be done in good faith but have to think that it often isn't. Like I said, how can you verify any of this?
Also, anyone else wondering about the middlemen here? Some would be agents I guess? I don't even know who is allowed to be involved and negotiate these deals. But there has to be a ton of money staying with the people right? Selling the kid on a $500K deal and they are keeping whatever %.
When it comes to Pitt specifically, some notes;
- They are doing fairly well but are still way short of the targeted number. It is a moving target and a lot of variables at play, but it sounds like they basically have half of their goal at the moment. Remember, the initial goal was 2 million.
- The Bub Carrington money is not just sitting there for them. This was something a lot of people, including myself, incorrectly assumed. If Bub returned, he had his deal in place. That money would have been collected for him and it sounds like it was going to be covered by an individual. So basically, the person said if Bub comes back, I will take care of it. So now, they are back to square one in that sense. That money is not just free and available like open cap space. It would need to be fundraised again and it sounds like it would need to be for a specific player.
- They do not have that much money. That is just the reality. That is not to say that it is over and doom and gloom. Let's be real here. A lot of Pitt's recent players have outperformed their initial plan. Blake Hinson was a total gamble. Burton, Nelly, etc. All under the radar and didn't cost much money. They have done really well in the transfer market. So they can certainly do it again. So many good players out there and the money will start to dry up. Just have to be strategic and target the players that fit.
- There is obviously a lot of money invested in Jaland and Ish already. There will still be enough to land a few players. Corhen and Dunn are very realistic. Unless their demands have risen substantially, I believe the sides can make it work.
- The word is that Thiero wants big money. If the number is true, he will be way out of Pitt's price range. The kid and family are interested in Pitt, but there is an agent involved.
- The twins have had their NIL offer for a while now. Same with Austin. Pitt and the Alliance team set a number for each and are not going to budge. They really have learned that you need to stick to your plan and not let kids and their people stretch you. Sounds like they are still waiting to hear back on what these three are going to do. Would be very surprised if they are not back. Pitt has been more than fair with all three and have actually overpaid in my opinion. Don't think there is much of a market for any of them, especially when you consider that the twins are a packaged deal and Jorge is still in a boot.
- So right now, you basically have Jaland, Ish, Cummings, Kante, Ndiaye, Barnes. The twins and Austin likely to return. That would make 9. They probably need a center but it depends somewhat on their plan with Guillermo as well. I think Kante will be more than capable of playing 15 minutes. If you can't play Guillermo at the four at all, I'm not sure the best use of the funds would be at center. In that scenario, why not use the remaining money at the 4? Jorge can be your reserve there I guess. Corhen is a nice prospect and will help. But I still have to question who your main four is? Dunn is also a nice addition and I could even see him starting. They like to bring Ish off the bench. That is also a tough justification to pay him quite well and bring him off the bench. Regardless, they want four capable and experienced guards. Dunn would bring a lot as far as culture and experience too. That Houston program is on another level and he is a really old player. If they land both, that gives you 11. Then they still need a shooter. This can be a quality team that is very solid, but I'm not sure they have the funds to do what some people are hoping for.
- There is still a chance that a specific player could prompt one of the large whales to enter the game. That is the wildcard of course. I just don't know which players could initiate that. I've heard some possible sponsors, but there is not a large appetite for that at the moment. That could always change if the right opportunity is presented to them, but it is a real grind right now.
