I know I did something to this effect last year and it generated some pretty decent conversation, so I wanted to wrap up and post some of my thoughts on how the college football season plays out around the country. We had a few Week Zero games this past Saturday, but it seems like things really get started in earnest tonight with Ohio State @ Indiana and the rest of the season openers unfolding throughout the weekend. I'm going to run through my thoughts on Pitt's season, a quick overview of each conference, and my playoff picks. I'd love to see all of you weigh in as well
Pitt:
I think Pitt is going to struggle with the start and end of their schedule, but Pat Narduzzi and company should be able to feast on a relatively weak schedule throughout the middle of the year. After what should be a comfortable season-opening win over Youngstown State (anything else should be a point of serious concern), the two out-of-conference match-ups against Penn State and Oklahoma State seem like tasks that are a little too tall for this season. Pitt's results against both teams last season are promising, but both have improved since Pitt last saw them and the suspensions and injuries to several prominent contributors make me think it's a pair of back-to-back losses in the non-con schedule. In particular, the trip to Happy Valley could get ugly if the crowd gets behind Penn State early and Barkley is as effective as I think he'll be. I think that the hype around McSorley is a bit much and he's just a bit above average, but Barkley is a real-deal stud.
The seven-game stretch that follows looks very promising for Pitt. Even though they have to go on the road to play Georgia Tech, I'm just not all that impressed by Paul Johnson's squad this year. They're replacing their QB and much of the defense and I think Pitt gets a road win in Atlanta to rebound after a 1-2 start. New QBs don't often have that true feel for Johnson's system early on in the season like that. Rice should be a lay-up victory to go to 3-2. I'm still not at all sold on Syracuse under Babers yet and I think Pitt gets a W in the dome. It would be surprising if last year's fireworks were repeated.
NC State is really tricky and should be the litmus test for this team, to me. That mid-October home game is one that Pitt needs to win if they want to compete for division or conference titles under Narduzzi. It's one of the few games in the middle of Pitt's schedule that should test them and they can't get complacent and slip up. The Wolfpack has a tough schedule, but they have an experienced QB and a strong defensive line and should push Pitt. I think with Whitehead and much of the defense back, Pitt should be rounding into shape and they defend home turf, but it's going to be tough. 5-2.
I think Duke is a win. I know they have that QB people are excited about, but Duke's talent throughout the roster is not all that impressive and I think Cutcliffe only has a couple years left before he retires. Bronco Mendenhall's Virginia program should still be pretty bad this year and presents a great opportunity for Pitt to get another home conference win and improve to 7-2. I think UNC is going to suck this year and between their QB situation and the loss of Gene Chizik, it's just not looking promising. An 8-2 seems likely, barring slip-ups to Georgia Tech or NC State.
I think Pitt's going to close out the regular season with a pair of losses to the top two contenders in the ACC Coastal. Virginia Tech's defense is going to be very strong and going to Blacksburg in November is a tall task for a relatively inexperienced Pitt team. They do have a long week in between UNC and VT, which should help, but I don't think it's enough. Miami should have a similar story to VT. They're also replacing their QB and some more offensive talent, but the defense should be elite. Pitt could get a little boost from the fact that it's a bunch of Florida kids coming up north in late November and that it's a Mark Richt-coached team in November, likely with conference title implications on the line. I think Miami still beats Pitt because I feel they're going to stifle the run and force Pitt to pass early and often, but this could be upset watch. I see Pitt finishing the regular season 8-4, but those GT and NC State match-ups make 6-6 a perilous and real possibility.
Conference Titles
ACC: All about the 'Noles this fall. Jimbo is at his best when he has a decisive talent advantage over most of his opponents and a talented QB to lead the way. I think FSU is going to have a dominant, turnover-forcing defense and that their offensive backfield is going to be filthy with Francois, Patrick, and Akers. Clemson, Miami, VT, and Louisville are the other contenders, but each have pretty serious flaws to me. I'll take FSU over Miami in a rematch for the ACC title.
Big 12: What a cluster of a conference. Going to be ugly this year. I think Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor are all going to be pretty bad. Maybe below-.500. I don't think Oklahoma or Oklahoma State are going to live up their preseason top 10 rankings. I think WVU has a very tough schedule. I don't know how well KSU is going to be with Bill Snyder's age and health issues. I think maybe Tom Herman just pulls one off at Texas in his first season and wins the conference with 10 wins or something in his first year.
B1G: As usual, the B1G East is going to be the much better half of the conference. I think Michigan takes a step back this year, but Ohio State and Penn State should have a fun competition at the top of the standings that will be resolved whenever the Buckeyes run them off the field by about three touchdowns in late October in Columbus. I think Wisconsin wins the B1G West by virtue of that half of the conference not being very good and the Badgers just running all over all of those defenses. Minnesota will be fun to watch under PJ Fleck though. Buckeyes over Badgers in the B1G title.
Pac-12: The picture of mediocrity to me. A few good teams, a few bad teams, a few okay teams, maybe one title contender. I think Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, and Oregon State are going to be capital-b Bad. I think Washington, Utah, and Colorado each take a step back and none of them wins more than 9 games. WSU still can't play any defense and I still don't think Jim Mora is a good coach at UCLA. I'm not really buying the Stanford hype just because of a week zero win over Rice. Oregon and UCLA will be better, but I don't think they can win their divisions. I'll take USC because of their talent advantage over the rest of the conference and the existence of Sam Darnold. That Darnold-Rosen duel will be fun if they're both healthy. The Trojans beat the Cardinal in a rematch for the Pac-12 title.
SEC: "You know who's coming for you. You've always known." Bama is Bama. As long as Nick Saban draws breath and coaches football, the SEC's title route runs through Tuscaloosa. I think the SEC West will actually be pretty bad this year. After the week one game against FSU, I don't think Bama plays a team with a pulse until the oft-maligned Butch Jones-era Tennessee Volunteers comes to T-Town. Don't get me wrong, Bama's going to smack them, but it's the first team that has any sort of talent/experience combo to belong on the same field as the Tide. It'll be a 12-0 or 11-1 regular season, a conference title, and a playoff birth again. The SEC kinda sucks this year. I think Georgia wins the East, but I'm not that confident and it's just a matter of choosing who gets to be Saban's tribute on the altar of the dark football gods.
Playoffs?!?!
Ohio State, Alabama, Florida State, and USC. Buckeyes will lock in their spot when they roll the Nittany Lions, Bama will do the same in the Iron Bowl. Florida State's two wins over Miami will put them in the playoff. USC will get some magic from Sam Darnold and continue their renaissance. It's going to be Bama as the 1-seed, Ohio State as the 2, USC at 3, and FSU at 4. FSU upsets Bama in a rematch and Ohio State gets the better of USC when their defensive line gets after Darnold and his young OL. Ohio State gets the better of FSU in spite of J.T. Barrett. Urban Meyer (or more accurately, Kevin Wilson and Greg Schiano) outcoach Jimbo Fisher and their defense takes advantage of a still-young quarterback in Francois.
Pitt:
I think Pitt is going to struggle with the start and end of their schedule, but Pat Narduzzi and company should be able to feast on a relatively weak schedule throughout the middle of the year. After what should be a comfortable season-opening win over Youngstown State (anything else should be a point of serious concern), the two out-of-conference match-ups against Penn State and Oklahoma State seem like tasks that are a little too tall for this season. Pitt's results against both teams last season are promising, but both have improved since Pitt last saw them and the suspensions and injuries to several prominent contributors make me think it's a pair of back-to-back losses in the non-con schedule. In particular, the trip to Happy Valley could get ugly if the crowd gets behind Penn State early and Barkley is as effective as I think he'll be. I think that the hype around McSorley is a bit much and he's just a bit above average, but Barkley is a real-deal stud.
The seven-game stretch that follows looks very promising for Pitt. Even though they have to go on the road to play Georgia Tech, I'm just not all that impressed by Paul Johnson's squad this year. They're replacing their QB and much of the defense and I think Pitt gets a road win in Atlanta to rebound after a 1-2 start. New QBs don't often have that true feel for Johnson's system early on in the season like that. Rice should be a lay-up victory to go to 3-2. I'm still not at all sold on Syracuse under Babers yet and I think Pitt gets a W in the dome. It would be surprising if last year's fireworks were repeated.
NC State is really tricky and should be the litmus test for this team, to me. That mid-October home game is one that Pitt needs to win if they want to compete for division or conference titles under Narduzzi. It's one of the few games in the middle of Pitt's schedule that should test them and they can't get complacent and slip up. The Wolfpack has a tough schedule, but they have an experienced QB and a strong defensive line and should push Pitt. I think with Whitehead and much of the defense back, Pitt should be rounding into shape and they defend home turf, but it's going to be tough. 5-2.
I think Duke is a win. I know they have that QB people are excited about, but Duke's talent throughout the roster is not all that impressive and I think Cutcliffe only has a couple years left before he retires. Bronco Mendenhall's Virginia program should still be pretty bad this year and presents a great opportunity for Pitt to get another home conference win and improve to 7-2. I think UNC is going to suck this year and between their QB situation and the loss of Gene Chizik, it's just not looking promising. An 8-2 seems likely, barring slip-ups to Georgia Tech or NC State.
I think Pitt's going to close out the regular season with a pair of losses to the top two contenders in the ACC Coastal. Virginia Tech's defense is going to be very strong and going to Blacksburg in November is a tall task for a relatively inexperienced Pitt team. They do have a long week in between UNC and VT, which should help, but I don't think it's enough. Miami should have a similar story to VT. They're also replacing their QB and some more offensive talent, but the defense should be elite. Pitt could get a little boost from the fact that it's a bunch of Florida kids coming up north in late November and that it's a Mark Richt-coached team in November, likely with conference title implications on the line. I think Miami still beats Pitt because I feel they're going to stifle the run and force Pitt to pass early and often, but this could be upset watch. I see Pitt finishing the regular season 8-4, but those GT and NC State match-ups make 6-6 a perilous and real possibility.
Conference Titles
ACC: All about the 'Noles this fall. Jimbo is at his best when he has a decisive talent advantage over most of his opponents and a talented QB to lead the way. I think FSU is going to have a dominant, turnover-forcing defense and that their offensive backfield is going to be filthy with Francois, Patrick, and Akers. Clemson, Miami, VT, and Louisville are the other contenders, but each have pretty serious flaws to me. I'll take FSU over Miami in a rematch for the ACC title.
Big 12: What a cluster of a conference. Going to be ugly this year. I think Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor are all going to be pretty bad. Maybe below-.500. I don't think Oklahoma or Oklahoma State are going to live up their preseason top 10 rankings. I think WVU has a very tough schedule. I don't know how well KSU is going to be with Bill Snyder's age and health issues. I think maybe Tom Herman just pulls one off at Texas in his first season and wins the conference with 10 wins or something in his first year.
B1G: As usual, the B1G East is going to be the much better half of the conference. I think Michigan takes a step back this year, but Ohio State and Penn State should have a fun competition at the top of the standings that will be resolved whenever the Buckeyes run them off the field by about three touchdowns in late October in Columbus. I think Wisconsin wins the B1G West by virtue of that half of the conference not being very good and the Badgers just running all over all of those defenses. Minnesota will be fun to watch under PJ Fleck though. Buckeyes over Badgers in the B1G title.
Pac-12: The picture of mediocrity to me. A few good teams, a few bad teams, a few okay teams, maybe one title contender. I think Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, and Oregon State are going to be capital-b Bad. I think Washington, Utah, and Colorado each take a step back and none of them wins more than 9 games. WSU still can't play any defense and I still don't think Jim Mora is a good coach at UCLA. I'm not really buying the Stanford hype just because of a week zero win over Rice. Oregon and UCLA will be better, but I don't think they can win their divisions. I'll take USC because of their talent advantage over the rest of the conference and the existence of Sam Darnold. That Darnold-Rosen duel will be fun if they're both healthy. The Trojans beat the Cardinal in a rematch for the Pac-12 title.
SEC: "You know who's coming for you. You've always known." Bama is Bama. As long as Nick Saban draws breath and coaches football, the SEC's title route runs through Tuscaloosa. I think the SEC West will actually be pretty bad this year. After the week one game against FSU, I don't think Bama plays a team with a pulse until the oft-maligned Butch Jones-era Tennessee Volunteers comes to T-Town. Don't get me wrong, Bama's going to smack them, but it's the first team that has any sort of talent/experience combo to belong on the same field as the Tide. It'll be a 12-0 or 11-1 regular season, a conference title, and a playoff birth again. The SEC kinda sucks this year. I think Georgia wins the East, but I'm not that confident and it's just a matter of choosing who gets to be Saban's tribute on the altar of the dark football gods.
Playoffs?!?!
Ohio State, Alabama, Florida State, and USC. Buckeyes will lock in their spot when they roll the Nittany Lions, Bama will do the same in the Iron Bowl. Florida State's two wins over Miami will put them in the playoff. USC will get some magic from Sam Darnold and continue their renaissance. It's going to be Bama as the 1-seed, Ohio State as the 2, USC at 3, and FSU at 4. FSU upsets Bama in a rematch and Ohio State gets the better of USC when their defensive line gets after Darnold and his young OL. Ohio State gets the better of FSU in spite of J.T. Barrett. Urban Meyer (or more accurately, Kevin Wilson and Greg Schiano) outcoach Jimbo Fisher and their defense takes advantage of a still-young quarterback in Francois.
