Maybe it was scoring three touchdowns in the final three games of the season. Maybe it was Kenny Pickett’s lack of clear development. Maybe it was the jumbled mess of a passing game. Maybe it was simply the cumulative effect of losing multiple games due to subpar offense.
Whatever it was, Shawn Watson is out as Pitt’s offensive coordinator.
- I’ve been saying for awhile - dating back to late in the regular season - that Pat Narduzzi was going to have to make a decision on Watson this offseason, and more than just the usual “We evaluate everyone” kind of decision. The numbers Pitt’s offense produced this year are the numbers that get coordinators fired, and if Narduzzi needed justification for canning Watson, he wouldn’t have to look far.
The stat that really stood out to me was a simple one: offensive touchdowns. In two seasons with Watson calling plays, Pitt scored 75 offensive touchdowns. Over the course of 26 games, that’s an average of 2.88 offensive TD’s per game. 14 of those touchdowns came against Youngstown State, Rice and Albany, so if you just look at how Pitt did against Power Five competition (and UCF), the average drops to 2.65 offensive touchdowns per game.
Also this: among those 23 games against the Power Five and UCF, the Panthers scored one or zero offensive touchdowns nine times in the last two seasons (after scoring at least two offensive touchdowns in 35 consecutive games). That’s remarkable futility. It really is.
(I should add, by way of being comprehensive, that Pitt did score 53 offensive touchdowns in 17 ACC games over the last two seasons, or 3.11 per game. By comparison, in 2016 the Panthers scored 43 in eight ACC games - that’s 5.38 per game).
So Narduzzi had the numbers on his side if he wanted to make a change. The biggest question was the non-numbers side: specifically, did he put the blame for the offense on Watson or other factors? There were plenty of factors to choose from, whether it was inexperience at quarterback or ineffective pass protection.
Given Friday’s news, it appears that Narduzzi opted to hold Watson accountable for the failures of the offense.
- And I’ll add this: my inclination is to believe that Narduzzi made this call. I wrote in today’s 3-2-1 Column that I didn’t think Heather Lyke should or would force a move like this, and I still don’t think she made it happen. I’m sure she expressed concerns over the state of the offense, but I just don’t know if forcing a move would be the ideal approach. I think Lyke has to let Narduzzi run the program and either sink with it or swim with it, and I believe that’s what has happened.
Narduzzi had to decide whether he would tie his fate to Watson or another offensive coordinator. He is getting to the point in his time at Pitt where he’s going to be judged more harshly on the results and questions about the overall course of the program are going to get louder, so he couldn’t necessarily afford to wait another year with Watson if he wasn’t confident things would improve.
- So what’s next? Well, it’s time to start digging. Narduzzi has definitely followed a pattern with his offensive coordinator hires so far: Jim Chaney, Matt Canada and Shawn Watson were all experienced Power Five coordinators, and I suspect Narduzzi will go that route again. He made a point of stocking his offensive coaching staff with mostly veteran coaches because his specialty is defense, and I can’t imagine he’ll want to change that direction. He wants an offensive coordinator who can run the offense the head coach wants and has experience doing it.
- Watson wasn’t the only coach fired on Friday; receivers coach Kevin Sherman is out, too. I actually think Sherman did a decent job - a good enough job, given the other various issues in the offense. He coached Jester Weah into a very good player and I think Maurice Ffrench has been developing nicely (limited largely by his opportunities). But the overall performance of the position hasn’t been great; that’s true for a variety of reasons, and Narduzzi seemingly opted to put it on Sherman.
- In some respects, maybe it was just Sherman’s turn. He was one of Narduzzi’s original hires when he came to Pitt, and with Sherman’s departure, just three members from that original staff are still here: running backs coach Andre Powell, tight ends coach Tim Salem and linebackers coach Rob Harley.
- In terms of recruiting, there shouldn’t be a seismic shift. Pitt has its 2019 quarterback recruit on campus; Davis Beville arrived in Pittsburgh about 18 hours the announcement of Watson’s firing, so that timing worked out well. The new OC will have to evaluate the offers Watson extended to quarterbacks in the 2020 class, but that’s a natural part of the process. Ideally, Narduzzi and the various area recruiters have been building relationships with those targets so there’s no lull in the recruitments, but again, the new OC will have to make his own decisions on who to pursue.
Whatever it was, Shawn Watson is out as Pitt’s offensive coordinator.
- I’ve been saying for awhile - dating back to late in the regular season - that Pat Narduzzi was going to have to make a decision on Watson this offseason, and more than just the usual “We evaluate everyone” kind of decision. The numbers Pitt’s offense produced this year are the numbers that get coordinators fired, and if Narduzzi needed justification for canning Watson, he wouldn’t have to look far.
The stat that really stood out to me was a simple one: offensive touchdowns. In two seasons with Watson calling plays, Pitt scored 75 offensive touchdowns. Over the course of 26 games, that’s an average of 2.88 offensive TD’s per game. 14 of those touchdowns came against Youngstown State, Rice and Albany, so if you just look at how Pitt did against Power Five competition (and UCF), the average drops to 2.65 offensive touchdowns per game.
Also this: among those 23 games against the Power Five and UCF, the Panthers scored one or zero offensive touchdowns nine times in the last two seasons (after scoring at least two offensive touchdowns in 35 consecutive games). That’s remarkable futility. It really is.
(I should add, by way of being comprehensive, that Pitt did score 53 offensive touchdowns in 17 ACC games over the last two seasons, or 3.11 per game. By comparison, in 2016 the Panthers scored 43 in eight ACC games - that’s 5.38 per game).
So Narduzzi had the numbers on his side if he wanted to make a change. The biggest question was the non-numbers side: specifically, did he put the blame for the offense on Watson or other factors? There were plenty of factors to choose from, whether it was inexperience at quarterback or ineffective pass protection.
Given Friday’s news, it appears that Narduzzi opted to hold Watson accountable for the failures of the offense.
- And I’ll add this: my inclination is to believe that Narduzzi made this call. I wrote in today’s 3-2-1 Column that I didn’t think Heather Lyke should or would force a move like this, and I still don’t think she made it happen. I’m sure she expressed concerns over the state of the offense, but I just don’t know if forcing a move would be the ideal approach. I think Lyke has to let Narduzzi run the program and either sink with it or swim with it, and I believe that’s what has happened.
Narduzzi had to decide whether he would tie his fate to Watson or another offensive coordinator. He is getting to the point in his time at Pitt where he’s going to be judged more harshly on the results and questions about the overall course of the program are going to get louder, so he couldn’t necessarily afford to wait another year with Watson if he wasn’t confident things would improve.
- So what’s next? Well, it’s time to start digging. Narduzzi has definitely followed a pattern with his offensive coordinator hires so far: Jim Chaney, Matt Canada and Shawn Watson were all experienced Power Five coordinators, and I suspect Narduzzi will go that route again. He made a point of stocking his offensive coaching staff with mostly veteran coaches because his specialty is defense, and I can’t imagine he’ll want to change that direction. He wants an offensive coordinator who can run the offense the head coach wants and has experience doing it.
- Watson wasn’t the only coach fired on Friday; receivers coach Kevin Sherman is out, too. I actually think Sherman did a decent job - a good enough job, given the other various issues in the offense. He coached Jester Weah into a very good player and I think Maurice Ffrench has been developing nicely (limited largely by his opportunities). But the overall performance of the position hasn’t been great; that’s true for a variety of reasons, and Narduzzi seemingly opted to put it on Sherman.
- In some respects, maybe it was just Sherman’s turn. He was one of Narduzzi’s original hires when he came to Pitt, and with Sherman’s departure, just three members from that original staff are still here: running backs coach Andre Powell, tight ends coach Tim Salem and linebackers coach Rob Harley.
- In terms of recruiting, there shouldn’t be a seismic shift. Pitt has its 2019 quarterback recruit on campus; Davis Beville arrived in Pittsburgh about 18 hours the announcement of Watson’s firing, so that timing worked out well. The new OC will have to evaluate the offers Watson extended to quarterbacks in the 2020 class, but that’s a natural part of the process. Ideally, Narduzzi and the various area recruiters have been building relationships with those targets so there’s no lull in the recruitments, but again, the new OC will have to make his own decisions on who to pursue.
