I know it's been a little while since I've done one of these, but I wanted to bring this pick and post some thoughts and picks on the weekend's upcoming games. Not any gambling thoughts or spreads, just straight pick 'em.
Weeknight Games
Not much going on here. #20 Stanford plays at Oregon State tonight and I'll probably watch the first half because I'm addicted to this sport, but it should be a blow-out for the Cardinal. Bryce Love is something and else and if anybody is free tonight/doesn't have plans, you should watch a bit of the first half. He's the most productive running back in college football and will finally have a chance for some people to watch his game without a competing national game on or without playing at midnight.
The FSU/BC game might actually be fun and people will be PIIIIIIIISSED at Jimbo if the 'Noles drop another one. His seat's not even warm, but you can't go 7-5 or 6-6 in Tally, no matter what the QB situation is. Huge underachievement this year. I might mess around and watch a little bit of Tulane at #24 Memphis also. The Tigers are ranked and might go 11-1 this year.
Noon/Early Games
Alright, here are my picks for the early games, which mostly seem bad. Home teams on the right.
#5 Wisconsin over Illinois
#8 Miami over UNC
#11 Oklahoma State over #22 West Virginia
Rutgers loses to Michigan
Arkansas loses to Ole Miss
Texas over Baylor
Louisville over Wake Forest
Virginia loses to Pitt
Cal over Colorado
OK State-WVU is the game of the week if you forget the 3:00-3:30 kickoffs exist. I think this one will be fun and weird, but I'm not all that high on WVU. They're better than I thought they would be, but I think OK State is going to end up beating them by a touchdown. S&P-Plus has OK State as a full 11 points better, but Milan Puskar will be rocking and I think this one stays competitive through four quarters.
I think Pitt turns the corner a bit this week and wins a tight one against Virginia. I know the team's been frustrating this year, as has the gameplan and coaching decisions, but I think Darrin Hall really grabbed the horns in the backfield this past week and that's a major improvement. The offensive line needs to continue to play well. Virginia can't score, but they can play a bit of defense and Quin Blanding is a stud. I feel like DiNucci turns it over twice, but Pitt leans on the running game and wears out UVA while getting an impressive performance from the defense.
Afternoon Games
#2 Penn State loses to #6 Ohio State
#3 Georgia over Florida
#4 TCU loses to #25 Iowa State
#14 NC State loses to #9 Notre Dame
UCLA loses to #12 Washington
#16 Michigan State over Northwestern
Indiana over Maryland
Houston loses to #17 USF
Vanderbilt loses to South Carolina
Austin Peay loses to #18 UCF
Utah loses to Oregon
Alright, let's talk about the Bucks and Nits. Here's the long and short of my prediction and what I think you've all come to expect from me: I've got the Buckeyes winning big and I respect very little about Penn State as a true contender this season. They've both played schedules softer than a baby's bottom lately, but I think this Ohio State is truly a cut above the Nittany Lions. Were it not for an objectively absurd refereeing benefit and a raucous home crowd, I think they'd be 0-5 against Urban Meyer. Penn State has lost three of their last four and 10 of their last 12 in the Horseshoe since joining the Big Ten in 1993. When playing at home, Urban Meyer has beat them by 77 points combined in two tries. He's 23-3 in rivalry games (and believe me, this is one, regardless of what Ohio State and Michigan fans will tell you) since taking the Utah job. Urban ain't losing this one at home to James Franklin, just not going to happen.
If you want my football reasons and not my historical reasons, Penn State is not as good of a team as Ohio State at the game of football. Last week's Michigan game is almost useless in terms of evaluating the matchup and I want all of you to forget about it. Those idiots in Ann Arbor ran a Cove 1 like they were actively trying to lose the game. Ohio State's defensive line, and especially Lil Nicky Bosa, is going to wreck the putrid offensive line that Penn State trots out. I don't know how much I trust their linebackers and defensive backs yet, but they're going to win at the point of attack on every down. They're going to dare Trace McSorley to beat them by sustaining drives and hitting on short and intermediate routes. They'll scheme to take away those deep chucks and the Saquon Barkley runs and RPOs to the boundary, it's been Schiano's M.O all year. Plus, just to reiterate here, I think their offensive line is so bad. I think McSorley will be on his back all night.
On offense, the Buckeyes face a lot of very legitimate and justified questions nationally. JT Barrett has had exactly two good games passing against good teams in his entire (25-year) career in Columbus. That's a point of concern. However, Ryan Day and Kevin Wilson have legitimately revolutionized the offense with simple, quick-hitting passing concepts mostly borrowed from the air raid and from a few NFL West Coast bits. More importantly, they've gotten Urban Meyer the hell away from play-calling. Ohio State can hit quick passes and they can run the ball down Penn State's throats. They're not really even going to test Marcus Allen and Grant Haley deep if they can avoid it, especially in a projected rain game.
At the end of the day, the Buckeyes out-play Penn State in the ground game by winning on both sides of the trenches and by generating explosive plays with JK Dobbins and Parris Campbell, while preventing Saquon Barkley from doing the same and getting the benefit of the weather.
Late Games
Mississippi State loses to Texas A&M
Minnesota over Iowa
Duke loses to #13 Virginia Tech
Tennessee over Kentucky
Nebraska loses to Purdue
Georgia Tech loses to #7 Clemson
Texas Tech loses to #10 Oklahoma
#15 Washington State over Arizona
#21 USC loses to Arizona State
I mean, who even cares? All about the afternoon games this week.
Weeknight Games
Not much going on here. #20 Stanford plays at Oregon State tonight and I'll probably watch the first half because I'm addicted to this sport, but it should be a blow-out for the Cardinal. Bryce Love is something and else and if anybody is free tonight/doesn't have plans, you should watch a bit of the first half. He's the most productive running back in college football and will finally have a chance for some people to watch his game without a competing national game on or without playing at midnight.
The FSU/BC game might actually be fun and people will be PIIIIIIIISSED at Jimbo if the 'Noles drop another one. His seat's not even warm, but you can't go 7-5 or 6-6 in Tally, no matter what the QB situation is. Huge underachievement this year. I might mess around and watch a little bit of Tulane at #24 Memphis also. The Tigers are ranked and might go 11-1 this year.
Noon/Early Games
Alright, here are my picks for the early games, which mostly seem bad. Home teams on the right.
#5 Wisconsin over Illinois
#8 Miami over UNC
#11 Oklahoma State over #22 West Virginia
Rutgers loses to Michigan
Arkansas loses to Ole Miss
Texas over Baylor
Louisville over Wake Forest
Virginia loses to Pitt
Cal over Colorado
OK State-WVU is the game of the week if you forget the 3:00-3:30 kickoffs exist. I think this one will be fun and weird, but I'm not all that high on WVU. They're better than I thought they would be, but I think OK State is going to end up beating them by a touchdown. S&P-Plus has OK State as a full 11 points better, but Milan Puskar will be rocking and I think this one stays competitive through four quarters.
I think Pitt turns the corner a bit this week and wins a tight one against Virginia. I know the team's been frustrating this year, as has the gameplan and coaching decisions, but I think Darrin Hall really grabbed the horns in the backfield this past week and that's a major improvement. The offensive line needs to continue to play well. Virginia can't score, but they can play a bit of defense and Quin Blanding is a stud. I feel like DiNucci turns it over twice, but Pitt leans on the running game and wears out UVA while getting an impressive performance from the defense.
Afternoon Games
#2 Penn State loses to #6 Ohio State
#3 Georgia over Florida
#4 TCU loses to #25 Iowa State
#14 NC State loses to #9 Notre Dame
UCLA loses to #12 Washington
#16 Michigan State over Northwestern
Indiana over Maryland
Houston loses to #17 USF
Vanderbilt loses to South Carolina
Austin Peay loses to #18 UCF
Utah loses to Oregon
Alright, let's talk about the Bucks and Nits. Here's the long and short of my prediction and what I think you've all come to expect from me: I've got the Buckeyes winning big and I respect very little about Penn State as a true contender this season. They've both played schedules softer than a baby's bottom lately, but I think this Ohio State is truly a cut above the Nittany Lions. Were it not for an objectively absurd refereeing benefit and a raucous home crowd, I think they'd be 0-5 against Urban Meyer. Penn State has lost three of their last four and 10 of their last 12 in the Horseshoe since joining the Big Ten in 1993. When playing at home, Urban Meyer has beat them by 77 points combined in two tries. He's 23-3 in rivalry games (and believe me, this is one, regardless of what Ohio State and Michigan fans will tell you) since taking the Utah job. Urban ain't losing this one at home to James Franklin, just not going to happen.
If you want my football reasons and not my historical reasons, Penn State is not as good of a team as Ohio State at the game of football. Last week's Michigan game is almost useless in terms of evaluating the matchup and I want all of you to forget about it. Those idiots in Ann Arbor ran a Cove 1 like they were actively trying to lose the game. Ohio State's defensive line, and especially Lil Nicky Bosa, is going to wreck the putrid offensive line that Penn State trots out. I don't know how much I trust their linebackers and defensive backs yet, but they're going to win at the point of attack on every down. They're going to dare Trace McSorley to beat them by sustaining drives and hitting on short and intermediate routes. They'll scheme to take away those deep chucks and the Saquon Barkley runs and RPOs to the boundary, it's been Schiano's M.O all year. Plus, just to reiterate here, I think their offensive line is so bad. I think McSorley will be on his back all night.
On offense, the Buckeyes face a lot of very legitimate and justified questions nationally. JT Barrett has had exactly two good games passing against good teams in his entire (25-year) career in Columbus. That's a point of concern. However, Ryan Day and Kevin Wilson have legitimately revolutionized the offense with simple, quick-hitting passing concepts mostly borrowed from the air raid and from a few NFL West Coast bits. More importantly, they've gotten Urban Meyer the hell away from play-calling. Ohio State can hit quick passes and they can run the ball down Penn State's throats. They're not really even going to test Marcus Allen and Grant Haley deep if they can avoid it, especially in a projected rain game.
At the end of the day, the Buckeyes out-play Penn State in the ground game by winning on both sides of the trenches and by generating explosive plays with JK Dobbins and Parris Campbell, while preventing Saquon Barkley from doing the same and getting the benefit of the weather.
Late Games
Mississippi State loses to Texas A&M
Minnesota over Iowa
Duke loses to #13 Virginia Tech
Tennessee over Kentucky
Nebraska loses to Purdue
Georgia Tech loses to #7 Clemson
Texas Tech loses to #10 Oklahoma
#15 Washington State over Arizona
#21 USC loses to Arizona State
I mean, who even cares? All about the afternoon games this week.
