Steel Curtain might be on to something here: The one stat that matters

[ratking17]

Pitt won 8 games last year. In those games, Qadree Ollison had the following stat

YSU: 16 carries for 207
Akron: 21 carries for 81
VT: 19 carries for 122
UVA: 13 carries for 49 (the one real outlier here, but still a pitt victory)
GT: 22 carries for 83
Cuse: 23 carries for 103
Duke: 26 carries for 111
Lville: 28 carries for 152

Pitt's 5 loses here are Ollison's stats

Iowa: 4 carries for 17
UNC: 10 carries for 54
ND: 12 carries for 32
Miami: 10 carries 37
Navy: 8 carries for 73

Ollison averaged 21 carries 113.5 yards per game in our wins
Ollison averaged 8.8 carries for 42.6 yards per game in our loses

Steel has made it a point to state how much Canada wants to run the ball. These stats don't lie. Run the ball to win

 

[ratking17]

In 8 wins pitt rushed for the following numbers:

43 carries for 325
46 carries for 127
46 carries for 166
35 carries for 141
43 carries for 200
46 carries for 188
58 carries for 268
45 carries for 244

In 5 losses pitt rushed for the following numbers:

27 carries for 55
37 carries for 153
31 carries for 175
31 carries for 189
21 carries for 198

Pitt averaged 45.3 carries for 207.4 yards per game in its wins
Pitt averaged 29.4 carries for 154 yards per game in its loses

 

[ratking17]

Obviously this stat is not groundbreaking and most teams that win usually have better production in wins than loses. But what I think this does state is what this team's identity is in 2016. Ground and pound behind what should be a great offensive line...

 

[Swervin27]

but was pitt forced to abandon run game strategy due to getting down early? I was at that Miami game, first 1/2 was an abortion. Score wasn't even close to telling the story. Recall UNC getting up pretty early too, images of pitt pink script still haunt me..

No excuse for Iowa game.. They had Chad's number though, we didn't start moving it til we brought Nate in and he started throwing it downfield, hitting JP a couple times too in the seam. Maybe iowa sold the farm ( pun intended) to stop run and left open the vertical pass game..

I'd much rather not even talk about navy game, comfortable blocking that from my memory all together. I am not arguing, I like Steel Curtain, just offering up an alternate theory. Im on the SC bandwagon, run run run in '16.

 

[Pitt79]

Often the stats are like that because AFTER you get a decent lead, you often run more. It doesn't necessarily reflect how you got the lead. Like if you went 22 pass and 5 run in the 1st half and went up 28-10, then the 2nd half, with a good lead, you go 5 pass and 35 run and win 38-24 it looks like the run game won it, when in fact it shows both parts of the game played a role.

 

[ratking17]

Oh, I completely agree the game situations can dictate this stat. You occasionally have games like gt 2 years ago where we fumbled on 5 of our first 6 touches or something crazy like that.

My only point is I agree that rushing needs to be our identity and our success goes as far as our backs carry us.

Again, I said above this isn't breaking new ground.

 

[vegasgreed]

taking out the non FBS YSU game OLLISON averaged 76 yards per game for the season.

His complete lack of being able to block makes him a situational player.

the staff sent him a strong message at the end of the season to get in better shape. its early but it appears he listened and followed through with the staff's request. Hopefully that helps.

a lot of backs will get carries this year, including hall who narduzzi has a man crush on.

 

[Jpripper88]

In 8 wins pitt rushed for the following numbers:

43 carries for 325
46 carries for 127
46 carries for 166
35 carries for 141
43 carries for 200
46 carries for 188
58 carries for 268
45 carries for 244

In 5 losses pitt rushed for the following numbers:

27 carries for 55
37 carries for 153
31 carries for 175
31 carries for 189
21 carries for 198

Pitt averaged 45.3 carries for 207.4 yards per game in its wins
Pitt averaged 29.4 carries for 154 yards per game in its loses

So 3 of our best rushing games were losses, IMO, and a 4th was right on par with the wins outlined.

 

[Swervin27]

taking out the non FBS YSU game OLLISON averaged 76 yards per game for the season.

His complete lack of being able to block makes him a situational player.

the staff sent him a strong message at the end of the season to get in better shape. its early but it appears he listened and followed through with the staff's request. Hopefully that helps.

a lot of backs will get carries this year, including hall who narduzzi has a man crush on.

in the games we won, Ollison avg'd 113 yards. In the games we lost, he avg'd 8 carries per game.. It's pretty simple, our strength was Ollison, when he was going, we were going..

I agree about his pass blocking which means he shouldn't have been in the game on 3rd and longs. I guess that is situational.. Problem was, Ibrahim was hurt, hall was meh and james sucked so someone had to be in there on 3rd and long.. This year, Ollison wont be needed on 3rd and long, we have "situational backs" like Ibrahim who are better suited for this situation.

HOnestly, I don't understand why parrish or aston isn't used on these downs, as a pass blocker. Line him up in backfield and block, he can take on a blitzing backer. It's not like Ollison or even another back is a real receiving threat on 3rd and 8+.. Everyone knows a pass is coming.. It's not like we've converted a 3rd and long on a screen pass in the last 20 years anyways..

 

[sappycrease]

Eh, I see what you mean but we may be looking too far into this. No doubt running the ball behind our stud Oline is our bread and butter, but we also need our defense to step up.

I'll reference the Steelers from '05 - they pounded the rock behind a stout Oline with Bettis and W. Parker but they would've never been successful without that LeBeau led defense.

If Narduzzi delivers on what he does best, we may be on to something special here...

 

[pittdan77]

I see the losses as more of an indictment of the teams inability to pass the ball with any kind of consistency.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

So 3 of our best rushing games were losses, IMO, and a 4th was right on par with the wins outlined.

We averaged about 15% more yards per carry in our losses than in our wins. So I guess the takeaway is that running the ball more but less efficiently is the key to winning?

 

[Swervin27]

I see the losses as more of an indictment of the teams inability to pass the ball with any kind of consistency.

not sure. I remember the U, UNC and ND just taking it to our D more than anything..

 

[HailtoPitt]

Don't get too caught up on the stats. What matters is having a certain amount of balance so that the other teams can't stop you from scoring.

 

[steel_curtain]

not sure. I remember the U, UNC and ND just taking it to our D more than anything..

-North Carolina blocked a 52 yard field goal, then scored in the next few plays. Then Ford fumbled on our own 25 yard line, and North Carolina scored again.

-The Miami game was a repeat. Peterman got intercepted on our own 20 yard line, TD Miami. Blewit again missed a 50 yard field goal, Miami scored a few plays later. We also couldnt punch it in on the Miami 5 yard line in the first half.

-Cant screw up like that with turnovers and field goal screw ups. Sadly, Blewitt's field goal percentage was 65% last year, and most of his misses came against the teams we lost to.

 

[steel_curtain]

Pitt won 8 games last year. In those games, Qadree Ollison had the following stat

YSU: 16 carries for 207
Akron: 21 carries for 81
VT: 19 carries for 122
UVA: 13 carries for 49 (the one real outlier here, but still a pitt victory)
GT: 22 carries for 83
Cuse: 23 carries for 103
Duke: 26 carries for 111
Lville: 28 carries for 152

Pitt's 5 loses here are Ollison's stats

Iowa: 4 carries for 17
UNC: 10 carries for 54
ND: 12 carries for 32
Miami: 10 carries 37
Navy: 8 carries for 73

Ollison averaged 21 carries 113.5 yards per game in our wins
Ollison averaged 8.8 carries for 42.6 yards per game in our loses

Steel has made it a point to state how much Canada wants to run the ball. These stats don't lie. Run the ball to win

-Its no secret most of the teams we play this year completely suck against stopping the run. North Carolina, Miami, and Oklahoma State are 3 of the worst in the entire country stopping it, statistically proven last year, they ranked 97th, 101st, and 121st against the run . Pound it with Conner and Ollison over and over and over.

-I would rather roll the dice and lose pounding the ball with Conner, as opposed to Peterman trying to win us the game through the air with pass plays in the redzone on the 5 yard line.

 

[Pitt79]

I see the losses as more of an indictment of the teams inability to pass the ball with any kind of consistency.

There's something wrong in this day and age if you don't at least try to build a great passing game. College football is or can be high scoring, so you need to be able to throw and score fast and often in a shootout. I hope they are building for that and not being content with a one dimentional approach.

 

[cruzer]

Pitt won 8 games last year. In those games, Qadree Ollison had the following stat

YSU: 16 carries for 207
Akron: 21 carries for 81
VT: 19 carries for 122
UVA: 13 carries for 49 (the one real outlier here, but still a pitt victory)
GT: 22 carries for 83
Cuse: 23 carries for 103
Duke: 26 carries for 111
Lville: 28 carries for 152

Pitt's 5 loses here are Ollison's stats

Iowa: 4 carries for 17
UNC: 10 carries for 54
ND: 12 carries for 32
Miami: 10 carries 37
Navy: 8 carries for 73

Ollison averaged 21 carries 113.5 yards per game in our wins
Ollison averaged 8.8 carries for 42.6 yards per game in our loses

Steel has made it a point to state how much Canada wants to run the ball. These stats don't lie. Run the ball to win

Can't argue with the philosophy of running the ball (effectively) to win. I'll just add two points. Running the ball is NOT the objective per se. Scoring when you have the ball is the objective. If we run up a bunch of yards but don't put points up, that's not good. The ground and pound approach also assumes that you have a solid defense that can stop the other team. You can't really run the ball if you're down by 14 in the 4th quarter.

My point is simply this, running the ball is only half of the equation. We also have to stop the other guys. If you look at the games we lost, we couldn't make stops.

Cruzer

 

[steel_curtain]

Can't argue with the philosophy of running the ball (effectively) to win. I'll just add two points. Running the ball is NOT the objective per se. Scoring when you have the ball is the objective. If we run up a bunch of yards but don't put points up, that's not good. The ground and pound approach also assumes that you have a solid defense that can stop the other team. You can't really run the ball if you're down by 14 in the 4th quarter.

My point is simply this, running the ball is only half of the equation. We also have to stop the other guys. If you look at the games we lost, we couldn't make stops.

Cruzer

-Was our defense to blame, or was the offense to blame? For example, Nate Peterman gets intercepted 3 times in the Navy game. How can you 100% blame the defense, when the offense is the one screwing up and putting the defense in a bad position? Look at the note above for the Miami and North Carolina games, how turnovers from our offense on our own 20 yard line, blocked field goals, etc.. killed us. You cant screw up running the ball unless you fumble. You also control clock.

 

[cruzer]

-Was our defense to blame, or was the offense to blame? For example, Nate Peterman gets intercepted 3 times in the Navy game. How can you 100% blame the defense, when the offense is the one screwing up and putting the defense in a bad position? Look at the note above for the Miami and North Carolina games, how turnovers from our offense on our own 20 yard line, blocked field goals, etc.. killed us. You cant screw up running the ball unless you fumble. You also control clock.

You're kinda making my point. You can't just run.... you have to score. Turnovers are killers, particularly when you're playing a ball possession type of game. And, you have to stop the other guys. Navy absolutely humiliated our defense. We were forced to abandon the run because we could not stop them.

One other point to consider.... you can impose your will on teams that aren't very good. You're not going to simply pound the ball all day long against a good defense.

Don't get me wrong, I agree that we need to run the ball and run it a lot in order to win, but very few one dimensional running teams win against quality opponents.

Cruzer

 

[pittdan77]

not sure. I remember the U, UNC and ND just taking it to our D more than anything..

Me too. But you're not getting back into those games if you're not heaving the ball around either.

 

[Pitt79]

- You cant screw up running the ball unless you fumble. You also control clock.

You're not going to go far in any football league if you can't pass the ball in 2016. And not just when you need to, you have to want to be able to throw. I mean sometimes you should come out throwing. It's not the '70s where people are scared to pass. Even high school kids are putting up monster pass numbers. If you have an attitude like "You cant screw up running the ball unless you fumble. You also control clock", Then expect more 6-6 teams because lots of teams have proficient high scoring pass offenses that you won't be able to beat 16-14 or 13-10. There will be a lot of games where if you want to win you'll need to win 45-42, and if they put 9 in the box and you can't throw because you don't know how, or are scared to, welcome back the BBVT Bowl in Bmmfck, Mississippi!

 

[doubleAA's]

Obviously this stat is not groundbreaking and most teams that win usually have better production in wins than loses. But what I think this does state is what this team's identity is in 2016. Ground and pound behind what should be a great offensive line...

Yeah, honestly this is pretty much the right answer here. Obviously if you are winning, you run the ball more. The Iowa game we came out throwing, and we certainly had a good game overall there. I will go ahead and predict if Conner gets 200 yards in a game, we are winning that game

 

[damase2331]

Pitt can have a dominant running game, but must also be efficient in the passing game. I agree I would love for Pitt to pound people into submission on the ground, but you have to have the efficient passing game as a positive threat.

Also, the UNC game, ND and Navy game, Pitt's defense was an absolute hole in a dam. The UNC running back was getting 5 yards a clip while the DL was moved like grandmas old furniture all over the field. Yes there were some INTs, but the defense was not stopping a noise bleed before or after the INTs in majority of the losses.

With that said, I was not a fan of Chaney and am glad he is gone, but the defense has to carry a substantial portion of the weight in the losses.

 

[CaptainSidneyReilly]

but was pitt forced to abandon run game strategy due to getting down early? I was at that Miami game, first 1/2 was an abortion. Score wasn't even close to telling the story. Recall UNC getting up pretty early too, images of pitt pink script still haunt me..

No excuse for Iowa game.. They had Chad's number though, we didn't start moving it til we brought Nate in and he started throwing it downfield, hitting JP a couple times too in the seam. Maybe iowa sold the farm ( pun intended) to stop run and left open the vertical pass game..

I'd much rather not even talk about navy game, comfortable blocking that from my memory all together. I am not arguing, I like Steel Curtain, just offering up an alternate theory. Im on the SC bandwagon, run run run in '16.

Agree, 4-5 Plays were the difference in losing to Iowa, UNC and Miami and when they fell behind it was harder to catch up, not following behind on 2 to 3 early plays and making 1 o2 more later with just a tad more time could have won all 3 games. Yet, the same could said for VT, UVA, GT, and Cuse?