Sunday Morning Bubbles - March 6th

[UPitt '89]

Outside of Pitt's crushing loss, yesterday was generally a bad day for teams on the bubble.

Saturday's Losers

Pitt

Our Panthers saw their chances fall from 56.4% to 34.9%. A loss to Syracuse on Wednesday probably ends their chances.

Syracuse

The Orange's loss at FSU likely made their game against Pitt on Wednesday a play-in game. Chances are down to 21.5%

USC

The Trojans' loss to Oregon completed a disappointing end of the season. They need to win at least one more game. Chances down to 43.0%.

Vanderbilt

The Commodores loss to Texas A&M dropped their chances to 73.7%

Ohio State

The loss at Michigan State was their last chance to make a statement. Chances fell to 10.7%

Michigan

The Wolverines are now down to 22.1% after their loss to Iowa.

George Washington

GW lost a game they needed to have against Davidson. Down to 16.1% and likely out.

Wichita State

The Shockers lost to Northern Iowa at home, and their chances fell below 50% for the first time... now at 44.2%.

VCU

The Rams lost at Dayton, not a bad loss, but it dropped their chances to 75.6%. Not a lock yet.

Saturday's Winners

Providence

The Friars got a necessary win against St. John's. Chances still good at 75.3%.

Butler

The Bulldogs got a blowout win against Creighton. They're likely in now at 82.4%.

South Carolina

The Gamecocks managed to slow down their collapse with a win against Arkansas. Chance back up to 41.3%

Tulsa

Following their win over South Florida, Tulsa saw their chances move up to 67.1%.

Oregon State

The Beavers won at UCLA and are in pretty good shape at 85.3%.

Florida

The Gators are hanging in there, now at 18-13/9-9. Chances at 20.4%.

St. Mary's

The Gaels kept their at-large insurance intact with a win over Loyola Marymount. Chances are 83.0%.

Gonzaga

The Bulldogs got a blowout win and now look to have a nice run in the WCC tourney.

 

[Piranha]

Ok - hypothetical. If we lose to SU and were to beat Gonzaga. What are the odds of us getting a bid?

 

[iMissTheOldDayss]

Don't worry guys we all know how well this team responds to adversity..

 

[OhioPittFan]

Lunardi's current standings don't seem to be close to matching these %. Cuse and Pitt are 9 seeds as of today by lunardi and every site. Hard to believe either losing to a respective 9 seed sends them 2-3 seeds down and knocks them out.

And lunardi has proven he's usually very good at projecting who gets in.

 

[PittMBA]

Outside of Pitt's crushing loss, yesterday was generally a bad day for teams on the bubble.

Saturday's Losers

Pitt

Our Panthers saw their chances fall from 56.4% to 34.9%. A loss to Syracuse on Wednesday probably ends their chances.

Syracuse

The Orange's loss at FSU likely made their game against Pitt on Wednesday a play-in game. Chances are down to 21.5%

USC

The Trojans' loss to Oregon completed a disappointing end of the season. They need to win at least one more game. Chances down to 43.0%.

Vanderbilt

The Commodores loss to Texas A&M dropped their chances to 73.7%

Ohio State

The loss at Michigan State was their last chance to make a statement. Chances fell to 10.7%

Michigan

The Wolverines are now down to 22.1% after their loss to Iowa.

George Washington

GW lost a game they needed to have against Davidson. Down to 16.1% and likely out.

Wichita State

The Shockers lost to Northern Iowa at home, and their chances fell below 50% for the first time... now at 44.2%.

VCU

The Rams lost at Dayton, not a bad loss, but it dropped their chances to 75.6%. Not a lock yet.

Saturday's Winners

Providence

The Friars got a necessary win against St. John's. Chances still good at 75.3%.

Butler

The Bulldogs got a blowout win against Creighton. They're likely in now at 82.4%.

South Carolina

The Gamecocks managed to slow down their collapse with a win against Arkansas. Chance back up to 41.3%

Tulsa

Following their win over South Florida, Tulsa saw their chances move up to 67.1%.

Oregon State

The Beavers won at UCLA and are in pretty good shape at 85.3%.

Florida

The Gators are hanging in there, now at 18-13/9-9. Chances at 20.4%.

St. Mary's

The Gaels kept their at-large insurance intact with a win over Loyola Marymount. Chances are 83.0%.

Gonzaga

The Bulldogs got a blowout win and now look to have a nice run in the WCC tourney.[/QUOTE
Not that I want to test the theory - but I believe Pitt is in win or lose Wed. Palm and Lunardi have Pitt as a 9 seed this morning. There are are at least 10 teams behind Pitt right now; none of whom are playing their way into the field by their results. Palm didn't even have Pitt in his bubble watch this morning. A lot of losing going on in that 8/9 - 12 seed group.

 

[Protes]

UPitt: Just curious...where would we be if we had finished and won the Gonzaga game?

 

[PittMBA]

Lunardi's current standings don't seem to be close to matching these %. Cuse and Pitt are 9 seeds as of today by lunardi and every site. Hard to believe either losing to a respective 9 seed sends them 2-3 seeds down and knocks them out.

And lunardi has proven he's usually very good at projecting who gets in.

I agree with this - Palm doesn't even have Pitt in his bubble watch this morning. There are at least 10 teams behind Pitt right now.

 

[UPitt '89]

UPitt: Just curious...where would we be if we had finished and won the Gonzaga game?

Impossible to know, but probably on the good side of the bubble.

 

[Hero of the Oppressed]

Joe Lunardi. He should thank god every day that he is able to generate income from this garbage. LOL.

Wake me up next Thursday.

By the way, these pictures are hilarious.

Thanks

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

And lunardi has proven he's usually very good at projecting who gets in.

Actually he's proven that he's below average at projecting who gets in.

 

[Chaos]

Actually he's proven that he's below average at projecting who gets in.

Who's is considered to be the best? And what does he say about Pitt's current state of affairs?
Thanks.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Who's is considered to be the best? And what does he say about Pitt's current state of affairs?
Thanks.

The bracket matrix web site has Lunardi 36th out of the 89 people that they have been tracking who have done this for three years or more. So I guess that technically he is slightly above average, but certainly no where near the best. Head over to their web site for all the numbers.

 

[California Panther]

Many fans on the SU boards seem to think that BOTH Pitt and SU will get in, no matter who wins because so many bubble teams have been losing lately and Pitt and SU have better resumes than many of the "near the Mendoza line" bubble teams. Hope they're right, but let's just win and settle it.

 

[NCanton Panther]

The bracket matrix web site has Lunardi 36th out of the 89 people that they have been tracking who have done this for three years or more. So I guess that technically he is slightly above average, but certainly no where near the best. Head over to their web site for all the numbers.

Isn't the rankings you're referencing reflecting how good they are at pedictings seed line as well as just who gets in. Most of them end up being pretty good at predicting who gets in, particularly at this point in the season or once we're into the early results of conf tourneys.

When it's all said and done, it will just be1-2 teams that may be a surprise or painted as a surprise so that there is something to talk about.

 

[str6116]

People say Pitt doesn't deserve to be in the tournament and I understand, but given how big the field is/how these other teams are having their own problems, this team can still squeeze in. Regardless, not being able to win at least 1 of these last 2 games will make Wednesday's game much more nerve-racking than it should be.

 

[noelr]

Surprised vatech isnt in the discussion but perhaps rpi still too high

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Many fans on the SU boards seem to think that BOTH Pitt and SU will get in, no matter who wins because so many bubble teams have been losing lately and Pitt and SU have better resumes than many of the "near the Mendoza line" bubble teams. Hope they're right, but let's just win and settle it.

Syracuse is much safer because they have 5 Top 50 wins. We have 2. The funny thing is if we lose and Syr beats UNC and gets in the Top 50, that gives us 2 more and we probably get in as stupid as that is. Top 50 wins is critically important.

 

[bobfree]

Lunardi's current standings don't seem to be close to matching these %. Cuse and Pitt are 9 seeds as of today by lunardi and every site. Hard to believe either losing to a respective 9 seed sends them 2-3 seeds down and knocks them out.

And lunardi has proven he's usually very good at projecting who gets in.

He makes a lot of changes the day of because he has had contacts on the committee. He really is just OK projecting.

 

[Las Panteras]

Pitt loses to Cuse......

cmon......

they are out.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Isn't the rankings you're referencing reflecting how good they are at pedictings seed line as well as just who gets in. Most of them end up being pretty good at predicting who gets in, particularly at this point in the season or once we're into the early results of conf tourneys.

Yeah, because by next Sunday a trained monkey could get 66 out of 68. And in some years better than that.

 

[NCanton Panther]

Yeah, because by next Sunday a trained monkey could get 66 out of 68. And in some years better than that.

Well I'm sorry but you were the one that was incorrectly citing rankings of how good these guys are at predicting who gets in when it is really rankings of how well they predict not just who gets in but seed positions as well.

 

[BFo8]

Well I'm sorry but you were the one that was incorrectly citing rankings of how good these guys are at predicting who gets in when it is really rankings of how well they predict not just who gets in but seed positions as well.

Almost no one is any good at the seed positions/matchups.

If one follows the sport at all they will easily get about 65-66 teams correct. There are only a couple spots in question every year.

 

[MrGee]

Joe Lunardi. He should thank god every day that he is able to generate income from this garbage. LOL.

Wake me up next Thursday.

By the way, these pictures are hilarious.

Thanks

Amen