The bloody weekend that was in the ACC

[Sean Miller Fan]

If we start on Wednesday:
VT lost to Jacksonville

Thursday
Miami (Drake], Syracuse (Tex), UVa (Ten) lost

Friday
Miami (OK St), Syr (TT), and UVa (SJU) went back to back. And ND and SMU got in on the action losing home games to Elon and Mississippi State.

Saturday
GT blasted by 23 in their own gym by Cincy

Sunday
Miami isnt even trying anymore. And Pitt loses but at least looks ok.

Wins over "Top 10 Conference" teams (to include MWC, WCC, A10, American, MVC) this weekend

Duke beat Arizona
Pitt beat LSU
Stanford beat Santa Clara
Cal beat Air Force
FSU beat UMass & Temple to take the 1990s A10 Tournament

Some thoughts:

- Pitt - we are NCAAT good but we were last year too. Are we going to have enough of a resume. Joe will say "just play good." Its not that simple. We arent Duke. There is a science to crafting a resume. And hopefully we will have done enough when the fateful day comes.

- Stanford & FSU - the next great hopes. Stanford has the best big guy in the league and probably the best coach. They've been squeaking out wins over bad teams but they are 6-0. They have neutral site games vs Grand Canyon and Oregon and also ACC games vs Cal & Clemson but they could come rolling into Pittsburgh at something like 13-1 or 12-2. Perhaps this is a team that can use their easy early schedule to develop into something. As for FSU, I think I picked them 16th ot 17th. Totally wrote them off but like Stanford, they are winning. They do have a loss but its to Florida. I am more confident about Stanford than FSU but its something to keep an eye on.

- If we are playing NCAAT Eliminator: Miami, GT, and VT are done. Keep an eye on Cal & BC. Both 1 loss each but they have low talent levels and both can clinch an early off-season soon.

- Looking ahead to Thanksgiving Week:

- NC St plays Purdue then either BYU or Mississippi

- Wake plays Florida then either Min or Wichita in the Disney Tournament which I guess is only 4 teams now.

-Clemson plays San Fran then either PSU or Fordham

- ND plays Rutgers & Houston in that NIL Pay for Play tournament

- Louisville is at Atlantis and they play Indiana, then either WVU or Gonzaga, and 1 more

- UNC plays Dayton then either Auburn or Iowa State then 1 more

- SMU plays California Baptist then either Fresno or Washington State

- VT plays Michigan then either South Carolina or Xavier

 

[Pittnerski]

Prepare for 4 bid ACC the way the league has crashed and burned in the OOC.

We really need to win 1/2 from tOSU and Miss St. Missing Dunn I’m no longer confident. He plays, we win by 10 last night. He’s that meaningful to our success.

 

[Pitt666]

We missed out last year due to non conference SOS. And barely missed out. Would help if WVU could play Gonzaga tough on weds and LSU win a few more than predicted.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Prepare for 4 bid ACC the way the league has crashed and burned in the OOC.

We really need to win 1/2 from tOSU and Miss St. Missing Dunn I’m no longer confident. He plays, we win by 10 last night. He’s that meaningful to our success.

5 seems like the safest bet. 4 is possible. 3 isnt completely out of the question.

The ACC hired a consultant this year but I'm not really sure what changed. Perhaps they recommended the league play an additional P5 team (Pitt @ OSU). There's not much else the ACC can do from a league standpoint but here are 2 suggestions:

- set a very high minimum coaching salary for league schools. Inotherwords, encourage ACC schools to make SEC-type hires. Too many assistants and MM lottery tickets get hired. We need ACC schools to make the "Buzz Williams why would he leave Marquette to go to VT-type hire."

- have every team play 2 league games in early November to prepare them for the late November tournaments.

- do some type of flex scheduling where ACC games are only scheduled for January and then based on those results, you schedule the final 8-12 games to give teams the best resume possible. The downside to this is that it could penalize a team like Pitt 2023-24 who came on late.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

We missed out last year due to non conference SOS. And barely missed out. Would help if WVU could play Gonzaga tough on weds and LSU win a few more than predicted.

It would mean everything if LSU pulls a "Northwestern" and becomes really good or at least bubblish. Huge comeback W for them but the SEC is so good that this doesn't seem likely. Have to win 1 of these next 2 or we need to go 15-5 in the ACC. Possibly 14-6 depending on who we beat.

 

[Pitt666]

It would mean everything if LSU pulls a "Northwestern" and becomes really good or at least bubblish. Huge comeback W for them but the SEC is so good that this doesn't seem likely. Have to win 1 of these next 2 or we need to go 15-5 in the ACC. Possibly 14-6 depending on who we beat.

They should remain at least a Q2 win though. UCF beat Texas A&M, LSU beat KST. This isn’t a mizz situation. BPI has Wisconsin as a 1 seed right now resume wise.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

They should remain at least a Q2 win though. UCF beat Texas A&M, LSU beat KST. This isn’t a mizz situation. BPI has Wisconsin as a 1 seed right now resume wise.

Yea, LSU could stay Q2 but Q2 wins dont help a great deal. They arent Missouri. But I fear 4-14 or 5-13 in the SEC for them. However, its not impossible that they win enough games to get to the bubble either. Wisconsin has a great resume right now so yea, maybe a 1 if the field was picked today but they arent 1 seed good. Maybe a 6 or 7.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

- Pitt - we are NCAAT good but we were last year too. Are we going to have enough of a resume. Joe will say "just play good." Its not that simple. We arent Duke. There is a science to crafting a resume. And hopefully we will have done enough when the fateful day comes.

It absolutely IS that simple. If we keep playing the way we have so far, and end up at the end of the season with a NET ranking in line with our current Pomeroy and Torvik rankings, say somewhere around 20-ish, we will be in the NCAA tournament no matter what the exact final number of wins and losses ends up being.

Someone mentioned Michigan State the other day, and it's exactly the same reason why they made it last year, and in fact weren't even close to the bubble. If your metrics are good enough, meaning if you play good enough, the exact record really doesn't make much difference as to whether you make the tournament or not. Because you will.

The funny thing is that you keep talking about what a team can do to "craft" the perfect resume, and yet you still can't come up with one thing that makes any sense at all that tells a team how exactly to do that. And the reason for that, of course, is because there is no magic bullet out there that will allow you to game the NET. You absolutely could game the RPI. You cannot game the NET.

Unless you play better.

 

[Franb]

It absolutely IS that simple. If we keep playing the way we have so far, and end up at the end of the season with a NET ranking in line with our current Pomeroy and Torvik rankings, say somewhere around 20-ish, we will be in the NCAA tournament no matter what the exact final number of wins and losses ends up being.

Someone mentioned Michigan State the other day, and it's exactly the same reason why they made it last year, and in fact weren't even close to the bubble. If your metrics are good enough, meaning if you play good enough, the exact record really doesn't make much difference as to whether you make the tournament or not. Because you will.

The funny thing is that you keep talking about what a team can do to "craft" the perfect resume, and yet you still can't come up with one thing that makes any sense at all that tells a team how exactly to do that. And the reason for that, of course, is because there is no magic bullet out there that will allow you to game the NET. You absolutely could game the RPI. You cannot game the NET.

Unless you play better.

From the NCAA website:

"With the changes announced in May 2020, the NET will no longer use winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin."

If scoring margin is not used, why do we keep hearing that we need to win by as many points as possible?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

From the NCAA website:

"With the changes announced in May 2020, the NET will no longer use winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin."

If scoring margin is not used, why do we keep hearing that we need to win by as many points as possible?

They don't use scoring margin, they use offensive and defensive efficiency. Which is basically just a different way to figure out the same thing.

For example, they don't say Pitt won 77-63 so we give Pitt a 14 point margin of victory. But they do say Pitt scored 77 points in a 70 possession game, that's 1.10 points per possession, and they gave up 63 points in a 70 possession game, that's 0.90 points per possession. And they use those numbers instead. Which is really just a different way to say the same thing.

And for the record, it's surely not that simple. The NCAA won't tell anyone exactly what they are doing, but they are surely adjusting those raw numbers somehow. Although knowing the NCAA, maybe they are just that stupid.

 

[Franb]

They don't use scoring margin, they use offensive and defensive efficiency. Which is basically just a different way to figure out the same thing.

For example, they don't say Pitt won 77-63 so we give Pitt a 14 point margin of victory. But they do say Pitt scored 77 points in a 70 possession game, that's 1.10 points per possession, and they gave up 63 points in a 70 possession game, that's 0.90 points per possession. And they use those numbers instead. Which is really just a different way to say the same thing.

And for the record, it's surely not that simple. The NCAA won't tell anyone exactly what they are doing, but they are surely adjusting those raw numbers somehow. Although knowing the NCAA, maybe they are just that stupid.

Ok, thanks.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

It absolutely IS that simple. If we keep playing the way we have so far, and end up at the end of the season with a NET ranking in line with our current Pomeroy and Torvik rankings, say somewhere around 20-ish, we will be in the NCAA tournament no matter what the exact final number of wins and losses ends up being.

Someone mentioned Michigan State the other day, and it's exactly the same reason why they made it last year, and in fact weren't even close to the bubble. If your metrics are good enough, meaning if you play good enough, the exact record really doesn't make much difference as to whether you make the tournament or not. Because you will.

The funny thing is that you keep talking about what a team can do to "craft" the perfect resume, and yet you still can't come up with one thing that makes any sense at all that tells a team how exactly to do that. And the reason for that, of course, is because there is no magic bullet out there that will allow you to game the NET. You absolutely could game the RPI. You cannot game the NET.

Unless you play better.

Hypothetical for you:

We lose the next 2. Go 8-3 in the non-con, 15-5 in ACC losing to Duke, UNC 2, Clem, Wake. Lets say WVU and LSU arent good.
That's 23-8 and let's say 0 Q1 wins. Are we in?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Hypothetical for you:

We lose the next 2. Go 8-3 in the non-con, 15-5 in ACC losing to Duke, UNC 2, Clem, Wake. Lets say WVU and LSU arent good.
That's 23-8 and let's say 0 Q1 wins. Are we in?

Is our NET ranking 20? If so, then yes, and it's not even close.

If we do all that and our NET ranking ends up 45 or something like that then we'll be in a similar situation to last year. And you know what that would mean?

We didn't play better.

 

[Pitt666]

Hypothetical for you:

We lose the next 2. Go 8-3 in the non-con, 15-5 in ACC losing to Duke, UNC 2, Clem, Wake. Lets say WVU and LSU arent good.
That's 23-8 and let's say 0 Q1 wins. Are we in?

They would actually have 4 quad 1 road wins in that scenario right now, but go on.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

They would actually have 4 quad 1 road wins in that scenario right now, but go on.

He is desperate to somehow concoct a scenario where Pitt is actually really good, and they play a schedule that isn't good at all, and yet somehow don't win many games. And it's not really working for him, because what he is attempting is completely illogical.

If Pitt is like top 20 good then they are not going to lose all these games to mediocre or bad teams. If they do lose those games then they simply are not that good. It's really not that hard to figure out.

For most people.

 

[Pitt666]

He is desperate to somehow concoct a scenario where Pitt is actually really good, and they play a schedule that isn't good at all, and yet somehow don't win many games. And it's not really working for him, because what he is attempting is completely illogical.

If Pitt is like top 20 good then they are not going to lose all these games to mediocre or bad teams. If they do lose those games then they simply are not that good. It's really not that hard to figure out.

For most people.

Yes, and there are more opps for potential Q1, @SmU, @NCST, @Lville and @ND. Possibly at FSU.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Hypothetical for you:

We lose the next 2. Go 8-3 in the non-con, 15-5 in ACC losing to Duke, UNC 2, Clem, Wake. Lets say WVU and LSU arent good.
That's 23-8 and let's say 0 Q1 wins. Are we in?

In your scenario we would have multiple Q1 wins though. You can’t go 15-5 and not have them. Multiple teams we would have beaten on the road would have been top 75 in NET.

If anything, PITT is shaping up to be Michigan St like last year. Where the quality of the OOC allows us to lose games and it doesn’t move the needle all that much.

BTW, LSU is in almost every bracket projection right now. They’ve beaten two top 8 teams in the Big 12. Not too shabby.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

In your scenario we would have multiple Q1 wins though. You can’t go 15-5 and not have them. Multiple teams we would have beaten on the road would have been top 75 in NET.

If anything, PITT is shaping up to be Michigan St like last year. Where the quality of the OOC allows us to lose games and it doesn’t move the needle all that much.

BTW, LSU is in almost every bracket projection right now. They’ve beaten two top 8 teams in the Big 12. Not too shabby.

Well yea, right now LSU is in. But there's a ton of losses on their schedule to play their way out.

 

[Pitt666]

Well yea, right now LSU is in. But there's a ton of losses on their schedule to play their way out.

So who do we root for oh grand wise one in LSU vs SMU and LSU vs FSU?

 

[whirlybird optio]

Well yea, right now LSU is in. But there's a ton of losses on their schedule to play their way out.

I hate to disappoint you, but Pitt is going to be that ACC team (a little like Clemson last season) where the computer numbers are going to be so good on SOS, NET etc that unless we totally crap the bed in conference, even a 12-8 record probably has us in the top 40 of the NET and in.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

So who do we root for oh grand wise one in LSU vs SMU and LSU vs FSU?

LSU for sure. We need LSU & WVU to be as good as possible. Non-conference games are very stupidly extra-weighted.

 

[Pitt666]

UNC survived an early morning challenge from Dayton. Clemson also beat San Fran by 15 who beat Boise by 11 who beat Clemson earlier by 13. Shows the difficulty of projecting strength so early on.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

LSU for sure. We need LSU & WVU to be as good as possible. Non-conference games are very stupidly extra-weighted.

Once again, showing that you have no real idea how this stuff works.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Once again, showing that you have no real idea how this stuff works.

I know that the committee puts an extra emphasis on non-conference games. If you had to pick either SMU or LSU being good (and lets say we beat SMU), you are saying they'd be equally important wins. They would not be.

 

[pittjas]

I know that the committee puts an extra emphasis on non-conference games. If you had to pick either SMU or LSU being good (and lets say we beat SMU), you are saying they'd be equally important wins. They would not be.

They don’t really value OOC wins more, though.

If 2 resumes are equal, they’ll give the nod to the team with a tougher SOS.

You’re overcomplicating this.

Going over 1000 scenarios in November is just silly.

Play good basketball - don’t lose games to bad teams. That’s the formula

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

If 2 resumes are equal, they’ll give the nod to the team with a tougher SOS

Wrong. See Pitt/UVa last year. Pitt had better NET, stronger SOS, and beat UVa but UVa got in because they had a stronger non-con SOS and beat someone (A&M?)

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Better week for ACC so far:

Clemson with 2 nice, but not great wins over San Fran and Pedos

BC miraculously beat Mountain West darling Boise State. This was a shocker to me as I think BC is by far the worst team in the ACC

FSU blew out Western Carolina and continue to roll. I picked them near the bottom and although they haven't played anyone, might they be good? They usually suck in these November games.

Duke and UNC lost but whatever.

Sleepers Stanford and ND lost to GCU and Rutgers. I still like those teams though.

 

[Ski11585]

Hey SMF. Gotta give you credit. We aren’t even done with November and I’m pretty sure you’ve tossed out every conceivable scenario for Pitt and the ACC. Great way to make sure you are “right” come end of season!

 

[whirlybird optio]

Better week for ACC so far:

Clemson with 2 nice, but not great wins over San Fran and Pedos

BC miraculously beat Mountain West darling Boise State. This was a shocker to me as I think BC is by far the worst team in the ACC

FSU blew out Western Carolina and continue to roll. I picked them near the bottom and although they haven't played anyone, might they be good? They usually suck in these November games.

Duke and UNC lost but whatever.

Sleepers Stanford and ND lost to GCU and Rutgers. I still like those teams though.

Mountain West not nearly the computer darling it was last year, that opens up some bids.

Also, for Pitt purposes, Capel pulled a Jamie this season and really scheduled the “cupcakes” well. Radford, Murray St (who is actually pretty good), Gardner Webb, Eastern KY…these teams are all winning games. We don’t really have the true bottom feeder 300+ teams this season.

Those Clemson wins are pretty good. Not quite LSU good, but not bad. They are in good shape.

Pretty clear this league has a top 4 of Duke UNC Pitt Clemson, and then I think Wake and LVille end up making it somehow.

ACC feels more likely to have 7 than 5, although 6 feels like the number (1 in Dayton)

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Mountain West not nearly the computer darling it was last year, that opens up some bids.

Also, for Pitt purposes, Capel pulled a Jamie this season and really scheduled the “cupcakes” well. Radford, Murray St (who is actually pretty good), Gardner Webb, Eastern KY…these teams are all winning games. We don’t really have the true bottom feeder 300+ teams this season.

Those Clemson wins are pretty good. Not quite LSU good, but not bad. They are in good shape.

Pretty clear this league has a top 4 of Duke UNC Pitt Clemson, and then I think Wake and LVille end up making it somehow.

ACC feels more likely to have 7 than 5, although 6 feels like the number (1 in Dayton)

I dont think Louisville is ready and Wake always plays themselves out. I think its Duke, UNC, Pitt, Clem + either NC St, ND, Stan, FSU. I guess you could throw Louisville in there too but I think 5 is the safe bet.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

I dont think Louisville is ready and Wake always plays themselves out. I think its Duke, UNC, Pitt, Clem + either NC St, ND, Stan, FSU. I guess you could throw Louisville in there too but I think 5 is the safe bet.

Based on what you said about Pat Kelsey it appears that Louisville will never be ready on your eyes.

Guys like Kelsey and Zach Austin cut their teeth in the Big South. You doubted both of them. And you were wrong for doing so.

 

[pittchagg]

Louisville has a really strong schedule. If they turn it on, even if they don’t turn it on until conference play, they’ll have the profile for a bid.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Based on what you said about Pat Kelsey it appears that Louisville will never be ready on your eyes.

Guys like Kelsey and Zach Austin cut their teeth in the Big South. You doubted both of them. And you were wrong for doing so.

I think Kelsey is a good coach. He isnt an elite coach like Louisville should have gotten. Needed an SEC hire or Will Wade

 

[TD_6082]

Wrong. See Pitt/UVa last year. Pitt had better NET, stronger SOS, and beat UVa but UVa got in because they had a stronger non-con SOS and beat someone (A&M?)

A&M and Florida.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

A&M and Florida.

Yea. Those wins were extra-weighted. UVa was a 0 for the ACC and Pitt had better wins there.

 

[Pitt666]

Well Lville up 15 second half vs Indiana. We can’t have it both ways. Either stronger ACC equal more Pitt losses or weaker ACC with risk of bad losses.

 

[pittchagg]

Well Lville up 15 second half vs Indiana. We can’t have it both ways. Either stronger ACC equal more Pitt losses or weaker ACC with risk of bad losses.

Every win (or a strong performance against a good team that ends up in a close loss) for the ACC is good. Rising tide, all boats, etc.

 

[TD_6082]

Yea. Those wins were extra-weighted. UVa was a 0 for the ACC and Pitt had better wins there.

And Pitt had worse losses. I think Pitt was swept by Syracuse and Clemson

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

And Pitt had worse losses. I think Pitt was swept by Syracuse and Clemson

And Pitt had a better NET, better wins, stronger SOS. You are counting 2 losses to an Elite 8 team as bad losses?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Well Lville up 15 second half vs Indiana. We can’t have it both ways. Either stronger ACC equal more Pitt losses or weaker ACC with risk of bad losses.

Root for stronger ACC for sure. This is a great result for the league. Maybe I was wrong about Louisville and they are ready in Year 1