The Florida myth

[jerot]

Anybody ever bother to check how teams who recruit a lot of FL 2 stars perform?
I checked a few, and they all suck.
FL Atlantic signed 76 FL 2 stars over the last 5 years. Yes, 76!
They were 26 - 36 over that period.
I started to check FIU, but could see similar results.
Villanova/Temple and their local 2* have better teams.

 

[BFo8]

Anybody ever bother to check how teams who recruit a lot of FL 2 stars perform?
I checked a few, and they all suck.
FL Atlantic signed 76 FL 2 stars over the last 5 years. Yes, 76!
They were 26 - 36 over that period.
I started to check FIU, but could see similar results.
Villanova/Temple and their local 2* have better teams.

FAU and FIU were a combined 19-8 last year. Maybe it had nothing to do with the talent level the prior few seasons but was more the lousy coaches they had.

 

[HailToPitt725]

Anybody ever bother to check how teams who recruit a lot of FL 2 stars perform?
I checked a few, and they all suck.
FL Atlantic signed 76 FL 2 stars over the last 5 years. Yes, 76!
They were 26 - 36 over that period.
I started to check FIU, but could see similar results.
Villanova/Temple and their local 2* have better teams.

I’d imagine an FCS team would have better success with 2* recruits than an FBS team. Also, FAU was pretty darn good last year. I’d imagine they have a shot at getting the G5 spot for a NY6 bowl this year. There’s more to it than just the players.

 

[Saboteur]

Anybody ever bother to check how teams who recruit a lot of FL 2 stars perform?
I checked a few, and they all suck.
FL Atlantic signed 76 FL 2 stars over the last 5 years. Yes, 76!
They were 26 - 36 over that period.
I started to check FIU, but could see similar results.
Villanova/Temple and their local 2* have better teams.

Did you check UCF? Doubt it.
Thanks for making ignoring you such an easy call.

 

[Mikefln]

FAU and FIU were a combined 19-8 last year. Maybe it had nothing to do with the talent level the prior few seasons but was more the lousy coaches they had.

hold on a second. All i ever heard on this board is that Lane Kiffan was not a good coach and he was this and that. Not that I am saying you directly did , but a lot on this board did. Now all of the sudden he is a good coach after 1 good year?

 

[Swervin27]

High school Florida football is a year around sport, teams are better, therefore the state will produce better players. It’s not rocket science.

The question is, can we get a few to come north and play. We’ve had some good ones in the past, we need to replicate, or duplicate, past success. Our asst coaches have the time, it’s not like they are busy recruiting locally, that’s for sure.

 

[jerot]

Did you check UCF? Doubt it.
Thanks for making ignoring you such an easy call.

I did check sneezy.
UCF had a total of 17 2* from 2014 - 2018.
None were any good.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

What do 2-stars ratings have to do with anything, anyway? Pitt isn't filling its recruiting roster with 2-stars. Pitt has generally recruited Florida players who were 3-stars. There may have been a rare 2-star--but only if that particular player was an under the radar kid the coaches saw enough of to be convinced that player was under rated as a 2-star. This is a non-issue.

 

[Swervin27]

I did check sneezy.
UCF had a total of 17 2* from 2014 - 2018.
None were any good.

so what is your premise here? That we should not recruit florida 2 stars? You know we are recruiting Florida 4 stars and 3 stars as well, it's not like we are skipping over those kids and going directly for the 2 stars.

We all want to take the 10 home from the bar after last call, sometimes we have to settle with taking the ugly friend home instead..

 

[kma0043]

Here’s my assumption. Florida produces a lot of players that are 2-3 stars and are fast and play skill positions, so they are more easily noticed. Other regions of the country (wpial for example) produce 2-3 star players, but a smaller portion are at the skill positions. Just a guess at the Florida myth. It baffles me too

 

[Swervin27]

2 stars from florida we've signed over the years, you guys be the judge here if it's worth it or not. I broke them into categories, feel free to disagree, I have a bad memory..
(in all honesty, the very large majority of these guys came from the Wlat and Wanny days).

DID NOT PAN OUT

AJ Schneider
Zach Schlundt
Joe Trebitz
Ron Jones

PRODUCED

Kelvin Chandler
Marcel Pestano
Jerald Robinson

OVER-PERFORMED

Joe Clermond
Kennard Cox
Greg Lee
Darrell strong
Tommie Duhart
Gus Mastakas
Greg Romeus
Rashad Weaver

What this list shows me more than anything is that Walt and wanny did very well with 2 star florida recruiting. like I said, most of these guys are under those two regimes.

 

[rmf05]

The Florida myth was started by a Sports Illustrated article in the late 80's. It was an effort by some South Florida politicians to get more people scouting south Florida in the hopes of getting a bunch of kids into college. The article actually said that kids there were elite athletes because they chased rabbits around in sugar cane fields to get their meals and make some extra money. It was one of the stupidest articles ever written. The myth was debunked a decade ago when someone researched Florida recruiting vs NFL draft choices. Florida wasn't in the top 5 areas for producing NFL talent. The main reason that the state has produced so much talent is because it has so many local schools. If PA had 7-8 NCAA Division 1 football programs, we'd magically have tons more talent by the same metrics.

Florida kids don't have better 40 times or bench presses than anyone else. For awhile they had a huge advantage because the state had year-round scholastic football which developed kids better but that has gone away as camps and rec leagues have spread throughout the country and even back then, the advantage it gave those kids disappeared after a year or two on campus allowed kids from other areas to catch up.

 

[Las Panteras]

My theory on recruiting classes has always been this:

A big time playmaking quarterback elevates the entire class, regardless of stars.

This thread seems to bear this out
While i wont waste time researching how many 2 stars FAU has on their roster, they also have a former 5 star FSU Last Chance U quarterback running their offense


They won 11 games last year

 

[Jpripper88]

My theory on recruiting classes has always been this:

A big time playmaking quarterback elevates the entire class, regardless of stars.

This thread seems to bear this out
While i wont waste time researching how many 2 stars FAU has on their roster, they also have a former 5 star FSU Last Chance U quarterback running their offense


They won 11 games last year

Kind of a big issue with this: That former 5 star FSU Last Chance U quarterback wasn't running their offense. They had a 2 star with 3 offers, who quit football after the season, running their offense. The other QB who played for them was a 2 star who transferred to Duquesne this off season. I'm not sure De'Andre Johnson took 20 snaps all season. Another Last Chance U Auburn transfer may have taken 30.

 

[HailtoPitt]

Don't be stupid.

 

[cashisking884]

My theory on recruiting classes has always been this:

A big time playmaking quarterback elevates the entire class, regardless of stars.

This thread seems to bear this out
While i wont waste time researching how many 2 stars FAU has on their roster, they also have a former 5 star FSU Last Chance U quarterback running their offense


They won 11 games last year

Sure, getting Lamar Jackson is going to elevate a pretty average Lville roster. But it's very difficult to get Lamar Jackson. Ideally you want to bring in as many big time recruits as you can across the board, so you don't need a Lamar Jackson type to be successful.
As the one poster pointed out, Johnson didn't start for FAU. They also brought in a lot of transfers. What FAU kinda shows is that you need to be more talented than most the teams you play. Kiffin isn't able to get this talent through normal recruiting routes. So instead he took a bunch of kids that, talent wise, belong at much better schools, and unleashed them on Conference USA.
Superior talent + elite offensive mind = 11 wins

 

[cashisking884]

FL might have a higher 3* hit rate than other places. I think one of the Newbergs (Josh or Jamie) did the research one time and found that even if you remove all the 4* and 5* players, South Florida still has more kids in the NFL than most states, and more than any other region.
But a lot of that is from the sheer number of kids playing football. I'm not sure it's a quality thing as much as quantity, or at least to the degree some make out.
And it's not just Pitt living by FL 3* players. Look at how many teams rely on GA and FL and Texas for their skill position talent. Because these are the talent breadbaskets. And yet, look how so few of them have skill position talent. The entire Big Ten West relies on the three talent states to provide a large % of their skill positions. Which WR core you want from the Big Ten West?
In the end, most of these schools rely on going into these areas and getting the .85 to .86 rated CB or WR. And that's maybe better than what they could get locally. But it's still a middle level 3*, and their units play like it.
When you buy that 3* scratch off ticket, chances are you're going to hit the 3* lottery. Even if the potential for a 4* winner is maybe higher than in other states.

 

[pittdan77]

I'm not sure the point of the OP or many of the posts but from Pitt's perspective, 2-stars shouldn't be a part of the conversation.

Pitt needs to be better than that.

 

[BuffetParrothead]

It's simple.
FL is a large densely populated state with lots of towns and HSchools.
Football is a major sport in FL.
FL kids play football all year long one way or another informal get together, camps, formal practices.
FL HS competition is better than most other states.
FL 2 stars would be 3 or 4 stars if they played in most other states.

"it's five o'clock somewhere"
Signed: Mr Buffett
Go PITT & CSU Rams!

 

[jtownknowitall]

The University of West Florida won the NCAA D2 championship last year in just its second year fielding a team. I bet its roster included a significant number of Florida 2 stars.

 

[Jpripper88]

The University of West Florida won the NCAA D2 championship last year in just its second year fielding a team. I bet its roster included a significant number of Florida 2 stars.

Are you suggesting Pitt would be a good D2 team? We are competing with the 4 and 5 stars up and down FSU, Miami, and Clemson's rosters, not West Florida or FAU. Even bringing those schools up is silly.

 

[pittmeister]

Sure, getting Lamar Jackson is going to elevate a pretty average Lville roster. But it's very difficult to get Lamar Jackson. Ideally you want to bring in as many big time recruits as you can across the board, so you don't need a Lamar Jackson type to be successful.
As the one poster pointed out, Johnson didn't start for FAU. They also brought in a lot of transfers. What FAU kinda shows is that you need to be more talented than most the teams you play. Kiffin isn't able to get this talent through normal recruiting routes. So instead he took a bunch of kids that, talent wise, belong at much better schools, and unleashed them on Conference USA.
Superior talent + elite offensive mind = 11 wins

This! Well done Cash! Bring us the facts!

Everything else is speculation and conversation!

 

[jtownknowitall]

Are you suggesting Pitt would be a good D2 team? We are competing with the 4 and 5 stars up and down FSU, Miami, and Clemson's rosters, not West Florida or FAU. Even bringing those schools up is silly.

Pitt would be an outstanding D2 team. As would FSU, Miami and Clemson.

 

[pittmeister]

2 stars from florida we've signed over the years, you guys be the judge here if it's worth it or not. I broke them into categories, feel free to disagree, I have a bad memory..
(in all honesty, the very large majority of these guys came from the Wlat and Wanny days).

DID NOT PAN OUT

AJ Schneider
Zach Schlundt
Joe Trebitz
Ron Jones

PRODUCED

Kelvin Chandler
Marcel Pestano
Jerald Robinson

OVER-PERFORMED

Joe Clermond
Kennard Cox
Greg Lee
Darrell strong
Tommie Duhart
Gus Mastakas
Greg Romeus
Rashad Weaver

What this list shows me more than anything is that Walt and wanny did very well with 2 star florida recruiting. like I said, most of these guys are under those two regimes.

Bullseye! Good stuff.

The best weapon against the terminally negative and the emotionally disturbed on this board, are the FACTS!

 

[Jpripper88]

Bullseye! Good stuff.

The best weapon against the terminally negative and the emotionally disturbed on this board, are the FACTS!

The fact is we cannot compete with the talent level we are currently recruiting. Whether we had a few good and a couple decent BE players (playing against mostly subpar competition) years back, who were Florida 2*s doesn't change that.

 

[HailtoPitt]

The fact is we cannot compete with the talent level we are currently recruiting. Whether we had a few good and a couple decent BE players (playing against mostly subpar competition) years back, who were Florida 2*s doesn't change that.

Pitt recruits near the middle of the pack compared to the other power 5 conference schools and compared to the other ACC teams. The issues that have plagued Pitt have little to do with recruiting.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

My theory on recruiting classes has always been this:

A big time playmaking quarterback elevates the entire class, regardless of stars.

This thread seems to bear this out
While i wont waste time researching how many 2 stars FAU has on their roster, they also have a former 5 star FSU Last Chance U quarterback running their offense


They won 11 games last year

See WVU with Pat White. Louisville with Lamar Jackson. Michigan with the morons they have had playing the position. Texas was the crap they have had playing the position. Florida with the garbage they have had playing the position. Clemson with the talent they have had playing at QB.

That's it. A great QB is the great equalizer. You can have talent out the wazzoo, and if you have mediocre QB play, it is hard to win.

 

[pittdan77]

Pitt recruits near the middle of the pack compared to the other power 5 conference schools and compared to the other ACC teams. The issues that have plagued Pitt have little to do with recruiting.

Middle of the pack recruiting will lead to middle of the pack results.

 

[Jpripper88]

Pitt recruits near the middle of the pack compared to the other power 5 conference schools and compared to the other ACC teams. The issues that have plagued Pitt have little to do with recruiting.

Well, all that matters is where they are against their competition. However, being middle of the pack in the ACC is EXACTLY the problem and the fact they are clearly a level below several teams in their division makes it almost impossible to compete for anything more than middle of the pack in the conference. Recruiting is by far the biggest issue plaguing Pitt football. If it doesn't improve markedly, the results won't either.

 

[HailtoPitt]

Middle of the pack recruiting will lead to middle of the pack results.

With an average coach, yes. If Narduzzi is a solid head coach, then we will start to see better than middle of the pack results in terms of wins. I would argue that having middle of the pack recruiting and wins after all the clusters that have happened, is pretty good. What Pitt needs is consistency more that just about anything.

 

[TempleBAPittMPA]

Anybody ever bother to check how teams who recruit a lot of FL 2 stars perform?
I checked a few, and they all suck.
FL Atlantic signed 76 FL 2 stars over the last 5 years. Yes, 76!
They were 26 - 36 over that period.
I started to check FIU, but could see similar results.
Villanova/Temple and their local 2* have better teams.

I can't speak for Evillainova, but yeah, Temple does have better teams . . . by getting 3-stars. But that said, . . . WTH is your point?

 

[Jpripper88]

With an average coach, yes. If Narduzzi is a solid head coach, then we will start to see better than middle of the pack results in terms of wins. I would argue that having middle of the pack recruiting and wins after all the clusters that have happened, is pretty good. What Pitt needs is consistency more that just about anything.

How? Who is he a clearly better HC than? Which programs ahead of us have lesser staffs? FSU? Clemson? Miami? VT? UNC? Those 5 schools recruit better than us and have AT LEAST as good staffs as we do. Frankly, I think you'd be borderline insane to think our staff is proven better than any of them, but maybe you could make the argument against UNC, even though they are 3-0 against Narduzzi and Co.

So, how do we achieve better than middle of the pack results when there are 5 programs who are clearly recruiting better than us AND have better (or at an absolute minimum, equal) coaching staffs? How many teams recruiting on the same level as us have clearly worse staffs? Duke? NC State? Louisville? Georgia Tech? If we don't see a jump in recruiting then we are expecting our staff to be clearly better than 11+ ACC programs AND likely get lucky against 1-2 more.

 

[pittdan77]

With an average coach, yes. If Narduzzi is a solid head coach, then we will start to see better than middle of the pack results in terms of wins.

Narduzzi and Franklin both inherited programs with similar recent histories (football wise) and the trajectories have been very different. You're welcome to blame whatever you want on Pitt's failings but recruiting is easily the difference maker.

 

[88Pitt88]

I must say that it is quite concerning that he has been here four years now and that is long enough to get in very early with kids and staffs of players they covet. Surely, you would think, the relationships that they have built with players and staff of a few kids would be enough to yield a few commits by this point.

I realize we were 5-7 this past season, but, if you are going about recruiting the right way and really building strong bonds with kids then, even for a few, that poor record shouldn't matter. You really have to question what this staff has been doing. Most of it has been together for the Duzz's four years here.

We may just have to many obstacles to overcome, foremost would be no on campus stadium and lack of atmosphere at games. That said, it may just be the chicken or the egg agument. Which came first? I really feel that it is going to be hard fo this staff to get 4 star players until they can show real performance on the field. A 10 win season that includes a nice bowl win might have to come first and come soon.

There will be alot of pressure on young Kenny Pickett to deliver. Lets hope he is a guy who can handle it, and deliver Pitt that big year, this year or next.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

I thought this thread was going to be about Ponce de Leon and the fountain of youth.

 

[phxpanther]

The Florida myth was started by a Sports Illustrated article in the late 80's. It was an effort by some South Florida politicians to get more people scouting south Florida in the hopes of getting a bunch of kids into college. The article actually said that kids there were elite athletes because they chased rabbits around in sugar cane fields to get their meals and make some extra money. It was one of the stupidest articles ever written. The myth was debunked a decade ago when someone researched Florida recruiting vs NFL draft choices. Florida wasn't in the top 5 areas for producing NFL talent. The main reason that the state has produced so much talent is because it has so many local schools. If PA had 7-8 NCAA Division 1 football programs, we'd magically have tons more talent by the same metrics.

Florida kids don't have better 40 times or bench presses than anyone else. For awhile they had a huge advantage because the state had year-round scholastic football which developed kids better but that has gone away as camps and rec leagues have spread throughout the country and even back then, the advantage it gave those kids disappeared after a year or two on campus allowed kids from other areas to catch up.

Get the hell out of here. Let's see, since 1983, Miami, FSU and UF have combined for 11 NCs built mostly on FL recruits.

FL produces the most NFL players, FL produces the most FBS players. I guess all the big time coaches around the country like Saban and Meyer have just been tricked by an SI article from the late 80s.

Hell, Pitt's best teams from the late 70s early 80s had plenty of FL talent

 

[cashisking884]

See WVU with Pat White. Louisville with Lamar Jackson. Michigan with the morons they have had playing the position. Texas was the crap they have had playing the position. Florida with the garbage they have had playing the position. Clemson with the talent they have had playing at QB.

That's it. A great QB is the great equalizer. You can have talent out the wazzoo, and if you have mediocre QB play, it is hard to win.

I can think of a team that has had talent coming out of the wazzo, has dominated college football over the last 10 to 15 years, and has had very average QB play during that dynasty run.

 

[cashisking884]

I would argue that having middle of the pack recruiting and wins after all the clusters that have happened, is pretty good. What Pitt needs is consistency more that just about anything.

Eh. Look at how bad the Big East and ACC Coastal was during our cluster. They were both ripe for teams of middle of the pack recruiting results to dominate. Nothing actually had to be "earned," the conferences were begging for a void to be filled. Just be the least bad of the bad teams. We couldn't do that in the Big East, and it looks as though that window has passed in the ACC Coastal for us to do that.
We might still do really well in the Coastal. But that's going to mean overcoming some pretty good recruiting classes and some really good coaches.

 

[HailtoPitt]

How? Who is he a clearly better HC than? Which programs ahead of us have lesser staffs? FSU? Clemson? Miami? VT? UNC? Those 5 schools recruit better than us and have AT LEAST as good staffs as we do. Frankly, I think you'd be borderline insane to think our staff is proven better than any of them, but maybe you could make the argument against UNC, even though they are 3-0 against Narduzzi and Co.

So, how do we achieve better than middle of the pack results when there are 5 programs who are clearly recruiting better than us AND have better (or at an absolute minimum, equal) coaching staffs? How many teams recruiting on the same level as us have clearly worse staffs? Duke? NC State? Louisville? Georgia Tech? If we don't see a jump in recruiting then we are expecting our staff to be clearly better than 11+ ACC programs AND likely get lucky against 1-2 more.

Narduzzi is 3-4 against Clemson, Miami and VT. That is excellent considering the situation he walked into. He has proven to be able to beat more talented teams, which is one indicator of a good coach. He has done it every year, so it doesn't seem like a fluke. And he has done it with a program still recovering from years and years of people in charge making piss poor decisions.

You asked how? Well, it will take consistent discipline, not giving in to the kneejerk reactions by fans. It is going to take years to improve the program. The worst thing Pitt can do is make a change or a year from now.

 

[Jpripper88]

Narduzzi is 3-4 against Clemson, Miami and VT. That is excellent considering the situation he walked into. He has proven to be able to beat more talented teams, which is one indicator of a good coach. He has done it every year, so it doesn't seem like a fluke. And he has done it with a program still recovering from years and years of people in charge making piss poor decisions.

You asked how? Well, it will take consistent discipline, not giving in to the kneejerk reactions by fans. It is going to take years to improve the program. The worst thing Pitt can do is make a change or a year from now.

No, you still ignored the question. If our talent is clearly worse than those 5 and the staffs are, at best, even, how do we improve our standing in the ACC? Narduzzi is also 0-3 against UNC, 0-2 against Justin Fuente and struggled to barely beat YSU in overtime.

Either our coaching has to be much, much better than those other schools or our talent has to be better.