Hard to imagine a worse 24 hours for Jeff Capel. As I posted a few weeks back, I did not think that Reid was worth quite the hype that he generated around here, but I understand it. To me, it was more of a PR boost than anything. Sure, the kid is really long and has some skill. He is also 20 years old and I still wonder what his upside is. Granted, he obviously would have started and played about 28-30 minutes a game. That is just the situation they are in.
The miss does hurt because it is an issue no matter how you look at it. It could have cost them other players, like a Soriano or Bickerstaff (more Justin related). Pitt put a TON of time in on Efton and his family. There was a strong relationship from what everyone has said. With that time, you learn about the kid and his family, who else is involved, the dynamics, etc. So even if you want to say that LSU swooped in with money in the end, wasn't that always how this was headed? Obviously none of us were involved in the recruitment and don't know any of the details. But to me, money is never an excuse. Part of recruiting a kid is understanding the situation and getting a read on it. If you play with fire, there is a chance that you are going to get burned.
From what I have heard since yesterday, I'm not even sure Pitt was close here. Or as close as some have said. The Overtime league was a real option, but Florida State and Ohio State walked away weeks ago. Apparently Efton was ready to commit to another school (not Pitt) weeks ago, but it fell apart. That is when those two schools moved on. North Carolina checked in but doesn't sound like it ever got serious.
I always say this but I will say it again. Who you recruit is important, but sometimes who you don't recruit is just as important. Things change too quickly. With how many transfers there are now, you don't have a lot of time to ride the wave. It does take time to develop relationships, but you have to know when to move on. That is extremely valuable. You are not going to get everyone. You aren't going to get 90% of the kids you recruit. But it comes down to allocation of time.
The Justin news was a bigger blow to me. I have said all along that his return was the first priority. You don't find kids like him at this point in the year. It is not easy to replace 18 and 13 in the ACC. His return would have softened anything else, including Reid. Because at least then, you know that you have an absolute stud at power forward and you are only worried about one spot really. Now there is a huge hole at both front court spots. This offseason was never about a complete overhaul. It was adding the right 2-3 players to Femi, Nike, Will, Ithiel. So after the news this morning, it is worse than before.
I am very surprised that Justin would leave. I would be surprised if he is drafted at all. Looking back at it though. I guess we should have made his health more of a factor. Knee issues in both seasons at Pitt. I'm not sure he was healthy even half of the time. Just trying to understand his thought process. Maybe he just felt that no matter what, he can start making $400K a year overseas somewhere. I don't know the medicals and I am not a doctor, but he had some sort of a limp and MCL issue for about the entirety of his time in Oakland. Maybe that played a part.
If you envision a center averaging 6 and 6, you are basically looking for about 24 points and 18 rebounds now. It can be difficult to look at it that way, but just basing it on the fact of averaging similar numbers this year and playing a similar style. I think Oladapo helps a bit, but you are looking for serious help now up front. Collier may be able to help at the four, so best case you have him backing up Oladapo at the four. Not ideal and a significant downgrade, but there is at least the floor there. At center, I really struggle there. Hoping for the best for Max and all that he is going through right now. They need to land at least one of these center transfers just to be able to employ their offense.
Short term and small picture, I think they can be okay. Key word here is okay. Let me stress that. Let's say they land the big from Ohio State as an example. Then you have a solid back court and at least a body inside. The pressure has completely shifted to the back court trio of Femi, Nike, and Ithiel. There is also pressure on William to develop and be ready on the wing. If that happens and the three guards play well, that is the strength of the team. Is that enough to stay out of the basement? Possibly. Just so many more questions to answer here. There is a lot of time left, but not a ton of great options. They can't afford to commit to the wrong option for multiple years just due to pressure. If you are going to bring in a question mark, bring in the grad transfer so at least you get the spot back. Of course, almost any move now in college is basically one year.
Long term and big picture, I have so many more questions. There are so many reasons that this program is where it is now. When Jeff Capel was hired, I never could have imagined this in year four. Jeff Capel recruited at the absolute highest level there is. He beat Calipari, Self, Williams, etc. for the elite of the elite. Nothing has changed in the prep landscape all that much. Of course the destination has changed for him and it is a tougher sell. But he has been in that arena for years. He knows how it works. Elite kids are elite kids. They all come from the same programs. It just a cycle all over again each year. For whatever reason, he still thinks that he can get these kids here. For a guy to get where he is, I am not surprised he thinks that way. From our chair, it is easy to conclude that he needs to target a different range of kids. However, we have never really seen him in that mode. His best success came with Blake Griffin. The recruiting run he went on at Duke may be the best we have ever seen. We haven't seen him succeed with lower talent. Not saying it can't work, but that is not his comfort zone.
Justin was very unique. No one projected his ceiling. St. John's and Pitt were the only schools even checking in. Same goes for Julian. No one deemed them worthy of two roster spots. Sometimes that is all it takes, some luck. Right now, they can't get any more of that.
The miss does hurt because it is an issue no matter how you look at it. It could have cost them other players, like a Soriano or Bickerstaff (more Justin related). Pitt put a TON of time in on Efton and his family. There was a strong relationship from what everyone has said. With that time, you learn about the kid and his family, who else is involved, the dynamics, etc. So even if you want to say that LSU swooped in with money in the end, wasn't that always how this was headed? Obviously none of us were involved in the recruitment and don't know any of the details. But to me, money is never an excuse. Part of recruiting a kid is understanding the situation and getting a read on it. If you play with fire, there is a chance that you are going to get burned.
From what I have heard since yesterday, I'm not even sure Pitt was close here. Or as close as some have said. The Overtime league was a real option, but Florida State and Ohio State walked away weeks ago. Apparently Efton was ready to commit to another school (not Pitt) weeks ago, but it fell apart. That is when those two schools moved on. North Carolina checked in but doesn't sound like it ever got serious.
I always say this but I will say it again. Who you recruit is important, but sometimes who you don't recruit is just as important. Things change too quickly. With how many transfers there are now, you don't have a lot of time to ride the wave. It does take time to develop relationships, but you have to know when to move on. That is extremely valuable. You are not going to get everyone. You aren't going to get 90% of the kids you recruit. But it comes down to allocation of time.
The Justin news was a bigger blow to me. I have said all along that his return was the first priority. You don't find kids like him at this point in the year. It is not easy to replace 18 and 13 in the ACC. His return would have softened anything else, including Reid. Because at least then, you know that you have an absolute stud at power forward and you are only worried about one spot really. Now there is a huge hole at both front court spots. This offseason was never about a complete overhaul. It was adding the right 2-3 players to Femi, Nike, Will, Ithiel. So after the news this morning, it is worse than before.
I am very surprised that Justin would leave. I would be surprised if he is drafted at all. Looking back at it though. I guess we should have made his health more of a factor. Knee issues in both seasons at Pitt. I'm not sure he was healthy even half of the time. Just trying to understand his thought process. Maybe he just felt that no matter what, he can start making $400K a year overseas somewhere. I don't know the medicals and I am not a doctor, but he had some sort of a limp and MCL issue for about the entirety of his time in Oakland. Maybe that played a part.
If you envision a center averaging 6 and 6, you are basically looking for about 24 points and 18 rebounds now. It can be difficult to look at it that way, but just basing it on the fact of averaging similar numbers this year and playing a similar style. I think Oladapo helps a bit, but you are looking for serious help now up front. Collier may be able to help at the four, so best case you have him backing up Oladapo at the four. Not ideal and a significant downgrade, but there is at least the floor there. At center, I really struggle there. Hoping for the best for Max and all that he is going through right now. They need to land at least one of these center transfers just to be able to employ their offense.
Short term and small picture, I think they can be okay. Key word here is okay. Let me stress that. Let's say they land the big from Ohio State as an example. Then you have a solid back court and at least a body inside. The pressure has completely shifted to the back court trio of Femi, Nike, and Ithiel. There is also pressure on William to develop and be ready on the wing. If that happens and the three guards play well, that is the strength of the team. Is that enough to stay out of the basement? Possibly. Just so many more questions to answer here. There is a lot of time left, but not a ton of great options. They can't afford to commit to the wrong option for multiple years just due to pressure. If you are going to bring in a question mark, bring in the grad transfer so at least you get the spot back. Of course, almost any move now in college is basically one year.
Long term and big picture, I have so many more questions. There are so many reasons that this program is where it is now. When Jeff Capel was hired, I never could have imagined this in year four. Jeff Capel recruited at the absolute highest level there is. He beat Calipari, Self, Williams, etc. for the elite of the elite. Nothing has changed in the prep landscape all that much. Of course the destination has changed for him and it is a tougher sell. But he has been in that arena for years. He knows how it works. Elite kids are elite kids. They all come from the same programs. It just a cycle all over again each year. For whatever reason, he still thinks that he can get these kids here. For a guy to get where he is, I am not surprised he thinks that way. From our chair, it is easy to conclude that he needs to target a different range of kids. However, we have never really seen him in that mode. His best success came with Blake Griffin. The recruiting run he went on at Duke may be the best we have ever seen. We haven't seen him succeed with lower talent. Not saying it can't work, but that is not his comfort zone.
Justin was very unique. No one projected his ceiling. St. John's and Pitt were the only schools even checking in. Same goes for Julian. No one deemed them worthy of two roster spots. Sometimes that is all it takes, some luck. Right now, they can't get any more of that.
