Theoretical 2024 Presidential Result

[MorningCoffee13]

Saw data from a site that tracks all of the presidential elections since forever.

I hadn’t looked much since November and was somewhat surprised that the current popular vote showed a roughly 2.3 million vote victory for Trump. Electoral was 312-226.

Wondered what shift in votes would have seen Kamala Harris winning.

If she had flipped 244,000 votes total in four states (Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan and Georgia) she would have had a 273-265 electoral college victory while losing popular vote by 1.8 million votes.

Kind of crazy how precarious the last election really was when you scratch deeper.

 

[pittbb80]

One of the things in the popular vote is that Cali and NY skew the totals. Trump had a huge lead in the popular vote until
Cali started counting their votes 10 days after the election. I think they are still fabricating er a counting votes

 

[HailtoPitt]

The popular vote totals really don't mean that much because their strategies are based on electoral votes in specific states.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Saw data from a site that tracks all of the presidential elections since forever.

I hadn’t looked much since November and was somewhat surprised that the current popular vote showed a roughly 2.3 million vote victory for Trump. Electoral was 312-226.

Wondered what shift in votes would have seen Kamala Harris winning.

If she had flipped 244,000 votes total in four states (Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan and Georgia) she would have had a 273-265 electoral college victory while losing popular vote by 1.8 million votes.

Kind of crazy how precarious the last election really was when you scratch deeper.

I didn't realize that the electoral votes for PA and MI changed. PA got 1 fewer and MI got 1 fewer. This meant that Harris needed not PA, MI, WI, which she lost by a total of 220K votes but she would have needed 1 more because those 3 only put her at 268. So she would have needed Nevada. Arizona and Georgia cannot be reliably counted on to go Dem. This makes things harder for Dems as they have win back the Midwest 3 + 1 more.

 

[HailtoPitt]

I didn't realize that the electoral votes for PA and MI changed. PA got 1 fewer and MI got 1 fewer. This meant that Harris needed not PA, MI, WI, which she lost by a total of 220K votes but she would have needed 1 more because those 3 only put her at 268. So she would have needed Nevada. Arizona and Georgia cannot be reliably counted on to go Dem. This makes things harder for Dems as they have win back the Midwest 3 + 1 more.

She was simply a terrible candidate and got crushed worse than Hilldog.

 

[ChiefJusticeMarshall]

Saw data from a site that tracks all of the presidential elections since forever.

I hadn’t looked much since November and was somewhat surprised that the current popular vote showed a roughly 2.3 million vote victory for Trump. Electoral was 312-226.

Wondered what shift in votes would have seen Kamala Harris winning.

If she had flipped 244,000 votes total in four states (Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan and Georgia) she would have had a 273-265 electoral college victory while losing popular vote by 1.8 million votes.

Kind of crazy how precarious the last election really was when you scratch deeper.

According to stats...
36 Million voters are registered Republican
45 Million voters are registerd Democrats
32 Million voters are registered Independents
5.5 Million voters are registered "Minor Parties"

So.......always if a Repubican wins, it is going to be close because there are just more Democrats. In fact, for a Democrat to lose, they have to be pretty poor candidate.

How many voters have a party affiliation? | USAFacts

Of registered voters, 47% have declared a party affiliation. As of September 2024, 36 million voters are registered Republicans and 45.1 million are registered Democrats.

usafacts.org

 

[MorningCoffee13]

I didn't realize that the electoral votes for PA and MI changed. PA got 1 fewer and MI got 1 fewer. This meant that Harris needed not PA, MI, WI, which she lost by a total of 220K votes but she would have needed 1 more because those 3 only put her at 268. So she would have needed Nevada. Arizona and Georgia cannot be reliably counted on to go Dem. This makes things harder for Dems as they have win back the Midwest 3 + 1 more.

I identified the states she needed based on the least number of votes and what percentage of the electorate that would be. So the four states identified were truly purple and a shift in a few votes per precinct would have won her the election.

Numbers never lie. The quality of the spin afterwards is what makes the bigger difference.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

According to stats...
36 Million voters are registered Republican
45 Million voters are registerd Democrats
32 Million voters are registered Independents
5.5 Million voters are registered "Minor Parties"

So.......always if a Repubican wins, it is going to be close because there are just more Democrats. In fact, for a Democrat to lose, they have to be pretty poor candidate.

How many voters have a party affiliation? | USAFacts

Of registered voters, 47% have declared a party affiliation. As of September 2024, 36 million voters are registered Republicans and 45.1 million are registered Democrats.

usafacts.org

The EC makes it very tough for Dems moving forward, especially if PA continues to trend the way Ohio did and become a R stronghold. Right now PA is getting closer to flipping to more R registered voters than D. I believe it might be within 80,000 votes which is a drastic shift over where it was 8 years ago. In 2009 Dems might have had a 700,000 registration advantage. I’m working off memory here.

Scott Pressler helped deliver PA for Trump with voter registration drives and flipping people. Ironically for Dems, he’s gay and Dems have to live with the fact that a gay man was largely responsible for delivering PA to Donald. Their perception of reality when it comes to how certain demographics vote is funny.

Which is why Shapiro might be even more critical than ever before.

Back to Pressler, he has PA in great shape, is also working hard in Wisconsin, and soon might even have New Jersey, yes New Jersey, as a swing state.

 

[ChiefJusticeMarshall]

The EC makes it very tough for Dems moving forward, especially if PA continues to trend the way Ohio did and become a R stronghold. Right now PA is getting closer to flipping to more R registered voters than D. I believe it might be within 80,000 votes which is a drastic shift over where it was 8 years ago. In 2009 Dems might have had a 700,000 registration advantage. I’m working off memory here.

Scott Pressler helped deliver PA for Trump with voter registration drives and flipping people. Ironically for Dems, he’s gay and Dems have to live with the fact that a gay man was largely responsible for delivering PA to Donald. Their perception of reality when it comes to how certain demographics vote is funny.

Which is why Shapiro might be even more critical than ever before.

Back to Pressler, he has PA in great shape, is also working hard in Wisconsin, and soon might even have New Jersey, yes New Jersey, as a swing state.

View embedded media

And why is this? Because the Dems seem hell bent to focus on the coastal elites and the cringiest of the fringe groups over what it used to be for, that is blue collar, working class Americans.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

And why is this? Because the Dems seem hell bent to focus on the coastal elites and the cringiest of the fringe groups over what it used to be for, that is blue collar, working class Americans.

Yeah. Presler is a grassroots guy. Hard to believe the Dems aren’t out there fighting for votes alongside him.

 

[pittbb80]

And why is this? Because the Dems seem hell bent to focus on the coastal elites and the cringiest of the fringe groups over what it used to be for, that is blue collar, working class Americans.

I’d also add that if they ever cleaned up the voting records/rolls the Dem advantage will go way down. It’s why the Dems have fought against this in court and are against voter ID

 

[HailToPitt1985]

According to stats...
36 Million voters are registered Republican
45 Million voters are registerd Democrats
32 Million voters are registered Independents
5.5 Million voters are registered "Minor Parties"

So.......always if a Repubican wins, it is going to be close because there are just more Democrats. In fact, for a Democrat to lose, they have to be pretty poor candidate.

How many voters have a party affiliation? | USAFacts

Of registered voters, 47% have declared a party affiliation. As of September 2024, 36 million voters are registered Republicans and 45.1 million are registered Democrats.

usafacts.org

I'd venture to guess that those stats are majorly false and skewed toward the Dems favor. Their voter rolls need cleaned up.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I identified the states she needed based on the least number of votes and what percentage of the electorate that would be. So the four states identified were truly purple and a shift in a few votes per precinct would have won her the election.

Numbers never lie. The quality of the spin afterwards is what makes the bigger difference.

I was right then wrong. She did JUST need PA, MI, WI. So she lost by 220K in those 3 states. Still very close but not as close as 2016, when it was 80K in those 3.

If Shapiro wins the nomination, he carries PA so it will come down to MI and WI. Those 3 states will decide the election again. They are all 50/50.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

I was right then wrong. She did JUST need PA, MI, WI. So she lost by 220K in those 3 states. Still very close but not as close as 2016, when it was 80K in those 3.

If Shapiro wins the nomination, he carries PA so it will come down to MI and WI. Those 3 states will decide the election again. They are all 50/50.

There's no guarantee that Shapiro would carry PA or even wins the nomination. The Dems have no clear leader and no clear front runners for 2028. They have no one qualified to run. PA is more Red than Blue now, Shapiro or not.

 

[pittbb80]

There's no guarantee that Shapiro would carry PA or even wins the nomination. The Dems have no clear leader and no clear front runners for 2028. They have no one qualified to run. PA is more Red than Blue now, Shapiro or not.

Would have depended upon whether or not Shapiro supported all the failed policies that Joe and Kamala supported.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

There's no guarantee that Shapiro would carry PA or even wins the nomination. The Dems have no clear leader and no clear front runners for 2028. They have no one qualified to run. PA is more Red than Blue now, Shapiro or not.

He may not win the nomination but if he does, he easily wins PA