Thoughts on the bracket

[UPitt '89]

1. Tulsa has no business being in the field over St. Bonaventure.

2. The other snubs, I have no real problem with. Monmouth, St. Mary's, Valparaiso - they really aren't tourney teams.

3. Kentucky and Texas A&M should be swapped on the bracket. UK should be the 3-seed and A&M should be the 4-seed.

4. The committee overseeded most of the PAC 12.... showing that the PAC 12's gaming of the RPI system worked.

5. Michigan State has a legitimate beef that they should be the #1 seed in the MW and Virginia the #2.... but that's splitting hairs.

Teams that are over-seeded:

- California - The Bears are good... but they're 6-seed good, not 4-seed good.
- Oregon State - The Beavers should be about a 9-seed, not a 7. But the committee must be reading my Bubble Viewing Guide, because the teams with the hottest cheerleaders - Oregon State and VCU - are matched up with each other!
- Notre Dame - The Irish played like crap down the stretch and are an 8-seed quality team.
- Iowa State - They're getting a bump from the conference, but they're a 6-seed-ish team.
- Syracuse - Should be in the play-in game - at best.

Teams that are under-seeded:

- UConn - Should be about a 7-seed.
- Indiana - Regular season B1G champ should be higher than a 5.
- Kentucky - Could make an argument for a 2-seed.

Round 1 Upset specials:

1. #10 Temple over #7 Iowa. Iowa has played like crap for a month.
2. #13 UNC-W over #4 Duke. Duke is a tired team with only one post player. UNC-W is a very good 13-seed.
3. #11 Michigan over #6 Notre Dame. Assuming Michigan beats Tulsa, of course.
4. #10 VCU over #7 Oregon State.
5. #11 N. Iowa over #6 Texas.
6. #13 Hawaii over #4 Cal. I really like Cal too. Very good young team. But Hawaii is the best team that none of us have seen play.
7. #11 Wichita State over #6 Arizona. Sean Miller's team is not as good as we think, and Marshall is a helluva coach who will find a way to win this game.

 

[KiwiJeff]

1. Tulsa has no business being in the field over St. Bonaventure.

2. The other snubs, I have no real problem with. Monmouth, St. Mary's, Valparaiso - they really aren't tourney teams.

3. Kentucky and Texas A&M should be swapped on the bracket. UK should be the 3-seed and A&M should be the 4-seed.

4. The committee overseeded most of the PAC 12.... showing that the PAC 12's gaming of the RPI system worked.

5. Michigan State has a legitimate beef that they should be the #1 seed in the MW and Virginia the #2.... but that's splitting hairs.

Teams that are over-seeded:

- California - The Bears are good... but they're 6-seed good, not 4-seed good.
- Oregon State - The Beavers should be about a 9-seed, not a 7. But the committee must be reading my Bubble Viewing Guide, because the teams with the hottest cheerleaders - Oregon State and VCU - are matched up with each other!
- Notre Dame - The Irish played like crap down the stretch and are an 8-seed quality team.
- Iowa State - They're getting a bump from the conference, but they're a 6-seed-ish team.
- Syracuse - Should be in the play-in game - at best.

Teams that are under-seeded:

- UConn - Should be about a 7-seed.
- Indiana - Regular season B1G champ should be higher than a 5.
- Kentucky - Could make an argument for a 2-seed.

Round 1 Upset specials:

1. #10 Temple over #7 Iowa. Iowa has played like crap for a month.
2. #13 UNC-W over #4 Duke. Duke is a tired team with only one post player. UNC-W is a very good 13-seed.
3. #11 Michigan over #6 Notre Dame. Assuming Michigan beats Tulsa, of course.
4. #10 VCU over #7 Oregon State.
5. #11 N. Iowa over #6 Texas.
6. #13 Hawaii over #4 Cal. I really like Cal too. Very good young team. But Hawaii is the best team that none of us have seen play.
7. #11 Wichita State over #6 Arizona. Sean Miller's team is not as good as we think, and Marshall is a helluva coach who will find a way to win this game.

Good stuff, I want to take UConn to go far, but man, what a brutal schedule.

What about Steve!!!!???? Will they beat the hoopies?

 

[orange830]

1. Tulsa has no business being in the field over St. Bonaventure.

2. The other snubs, I have no real problem with. Monmouth, St. Mary's, Valparaiso - they really aren't tourney teams.

3. Kentucky and Texas A&M should be swapped on the bracket. UK should be the 3-seed and A&M should be the 4-seed.

4. The committee overseeded most of the PAC 12.... showing that the PAC 12's gaming of the RPI system worked.

5. Michigan State has a legitimate beef that they should be the #1 seed in the MW and Virginia the #2.... but that's splitting hairs.

Teams that are over-seeded:

- California - The Bears are good... but they're 6-seed good, not 4-seed good.
- Oregon State - The Beavers should be about a 9-seed, not a 7. But the committee must be reading my Bubble Viewing Guide, because the teams with the hottest cheerleaders - Oregon State and VCU - are matched up with each other!
- Notre Dame - The Irish played like crap down the stretch and are an 8-seed quality team.
- Iowa State - They're getting a bump from the conference, but they're a 6-seed-ish team.
- Syracuse - Should be in the play-in game - at best.

Teams that are under-seeded:

- UConn - Should be about a 7-seed.
- Indiana - Regular season B1G champ should be higher than a 5.
- Kentucky - Could make an argument for a 2-seed.

Round 1 Upset specials:

1. #10 Temple over #7 Iowa. Iowa has played like crap for a month.
2. #13 UNC-W over #4 Duke. Duke is a tired team with only one post player. UNC-W is a very good 13-seed.
3. #11 Michigan over #6 Notre Dame. Assuming Michigan beats Tulsa, of course.
4. #10 VCU over #7 Oregon State.
5. #11 N. Iowa over #6 Texas.
6. #13 Hawaii over #4 Cal. I really like Cal too. Very good young team. But Hawaii is the best team that none of us have seen play.
7. #11 Wichita State over #6 Arizona. Sean Miller's team is not as good as we think, and Marshall is a helluva coach who will find a way to win this game.

I think our resume is better than the other 11 seeds.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

1. Tulsa has no business being in the field over St. Bonaventure.

2. The other snubs, I have no real problem with. Monmouth, St. Mary's, Valparaiso - they really aren't tourney teams.

3. Kentucky and Texas A&M should be swapped on the bracket. UK should be the 3-seed and A&M should be the 4-seed.

4. The committee overseeded most of the PAC 12.... showing that the PAC 12's gaming of the RPI system worked.

5. Michigan State has a legitimate beef that they should be the #1 seed in the MW and Virginia the #2.... but that's splitting hairs.

Teams that are over-seeded:

- California - The Bears are good... but they're 6-seed good, not 4-seed good.
- Oregon State - The Beavers should be about a 9-seed, not a 7. But the committee must be reading my Bubble Viewing Guide, because the teams with the hottest cheerleaders - Oregon State and VCU - are matched up with each other!
- Notre Dame - The Irish played like crap down the stretch and are an 8-seed quality team.
- Iowa State - They're getting a bump from the conference, but they're a 6-seed-ish team.
- Syracuse - Should be in the play-in game - at best.

Teams that are under-seeded:

- UConn - Should be about a 7-seed.
- Indiana - Regular season B1G champ should be higher than a 5.
- Kentucky - Could make an argument for a 2-seed.

Round 1 Upset specials:

1. #10 Temple over #7 Iowa. Iowa has played like crap for a month.
2. #13 UNC-W over #4 Duke. Duke is a tired team with only one post player. UNC-W is a very good 13-seed.
3. #11 Michigan over #6 Notre Dame. Assuming Michigan beats Tulsa, of course.
4. #10 VCU over #7 Oregon State.
5. #11 N. Iowa over #6 Texas.
6. #13 Hawaii over #4 Cal. I really like Cal too. Very good young team. But Hawaii is the best team that none of us have seen play.
7. #11 Wichita State over #6 Arizona. Sean Miller's team is not as good as we think, and Marshall is a helluva coach who will find a way to win this game.

Computers (Massey Composite) disagree with a few of your assessments--

1. Tulsa #53 about the same as St. Bonaventure #56--But, neither should have been in given the 18 auto bid teams ranked below #64 wiping out anyone worse than #50.

2. St. Mary's #32 (vs Pitt #36), Valpo #42 shouyld have been in. Monmouth you are correct about at #64 due to the auto-bid spoilers. St. Mary's was clearly the most screwed over based on their computer rating (equals last 8 seed).

 

[BFo8]

St Mary's had the capability to win 2 games in this tournament, they have talent and are supremely coached. However their schedule wasn't as strong as it had been in previous years, and that's the way it goes.

I guess I'm the oddball according to UPitt's post, I've seen Hawaii play many times this year. Those guys are on a mission, a little known fact is they are ineligible for NEXT year's postseason, for some of their guys this is literally the last chance they have.

 

[Piranha]

1. Tulsa has no business being in the field over St. Bonaventure.

2. The other snubs, I have no real problem with. Monmouth, St. Mary's, Valparaiso - they really aren't tourney teams.

3. Kentucky and Texas A&M should be swapped on the bracket. UK should be the 3-seed and A&M should be the 4-seed.

4. The committee overseeded most of the PAC 12.... showing that the PAC 12's gaming of the RPI system worked.

5. Michigan State has a legitimate beef that they should be the #1 seed in the MW and Virginia the #2.... but that's splitting hairs.

Teams that are over-seeded:

- California - The Bears are good... but they're 6-seed good, not 4-seed good.
- Oregon State - The Beavers should be about a 9-seed, not a 7. But the committee must be reading my Bubble Viewing Guide, because the teams with the hottest cheerleaders - Oregon State and VCU - are matched up with each other!
- Notre Dame - The Irish played like crap down the stretch and are an 8-seed quality team.
- Iowa State - They're getting a bump from the conference, but they're a 6-seed-ish team.
- Syracuse - Should be in the play-in game - at best.

Teams that are under-seeded:

- UConn - Should be about a 7-seed.
- Indiana - Regular season B1G champ should be higher than a 5.
- Kentucky - Could make an argument for a 2-seed.

Round 1 Upset specials:

1. #10 Temple over #7 Iowa. Iowa has played like crap for a month.
2. #13 UNC-W over #4 Duke. Duke is a tired team with only one post player. UNC-W is a very good 13-seed.
3. #11 Michigan over #6 Notre Dame. Assuming Michigan beats Tulsa, of course.
4. #10 VCU over #7 Oregon State.
5. #11 N. Iowa over #6 Texas.
6. #13 Hawaii over #4 Cal. I really like Cal too. Very good young team. But Hawaii is the best team that none of us have seen play.
7. #11 Wichita State over #6 Arizona. Sean Miller's team is not as good as we think, and Marshall is a helluva coach who will find a way to win this game.

Agreed - St. Bonnie is the only team I was surprised by not getting in.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

St Mary's had the capability to win 2 games in this tournament, they have talent and are supremely coached. However their schedule wasn't as strong as it had been in previous years, and that's the way it goes.

I guess I'm the oddball according to UPitt's post, I've seen Hawaii play many times this year. Those guys are on a mission, a little known fact is they are ineligible for NEXT year's postseason, for some of their guys this is literally the last chance they have.

I watch Hawaii last night. They have many of the same guys that gave us fits last year. I could see them giving Cal a game.

One of St. Mary's problems with their schedule is that because of some past infraction (and I don't know what exactly it was) they were not allowed to play in an exempt tournament this year. So that gave them a couple fewer chances to potentially play high level competition. When confronted with that fact instead of going out an doing whatever they needed to to get some games against top competition they instead came up with an OOC schedule that included 9 home games and 1 road game, at Cal, that they lost by 4 points. They also got Stanford to play them at home, but Stanford wasn't any good this year. Their other OOC games were home games against San Francisco State, Manhattan, Cal Bakersfield, UC Davis, UC Irvine, Cal Poly, Southern Utah and Utah Valley. That just doesn't get it done.

Plus they lost to Pepperdine in conference. Twice. Much like Monmouth, when you don't have a big margin of error you better not lose multiple games to teams that aren't any good.

 

[BFo8]

I watch Hawaii last night. They have many of the same guys that gave us fits last year. I could see them giving Cal a game.

One of St. Mary's problems with their schedule is that because of some past infraction (and I don't know what exactly it was) they were not allowed to play in an exempt tournament this year. So that gave them a couple fewer chances to potentially play high level competition. When confronted with that fact instead of going out an doing whatever they needed to to get some games against top competition they instead came up with an OOC schedule that included 9 home games and 1 road game, at Cal, that they lost by 4 points. They also got Stanford to play them at home, but Stanford wasn't any good this year. Their other OOC games were home games against San Francisco State, Manhattan, Cal Bakersfield, UC Davis, UC Irvine, Cal Poly, Southern Utah and Utah Valley. That just doesn't get it done.

Plus they lost to Pepperdine in conference. Twice. Much like Monmouth, when you don't have a big margin of error you better not lose multiple games to teams that aren't any good.

I believe the infractions had something to do with the recruitment of foreign players, which is literally their lifeblood. The Pepperdine losses were inexplicable, and I watched parts of both of them. Pepperdine was easily the #4 team in the WCC this year, but were way behind the big 3. I still believe this St Mary's team had the ability to make a sweet 16 run, but I can't argue that much about them being excluded.

Hawaii is an enigma to me. They have a few decent wins, and had Oklahoma beat, win that game and they maybe even get an at large.

However they also have the very odd home loss to UC Riverside this year, which was probably the most talked about game in the gambling community all season. Riverside pretty much sucks, yet they took heavy and consistent money leading up to the game, which lead to massive pointspread movements and even talk of taking the game off the board. I didn't hear anything definitive about tanking in this game, but given the rumors about a few Hawaii football games a couple years ago, the story did seem to carry a little weight.

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

1. Tulsa has no business being in the field over St. Bonaventure.

2. The other snubs, I have no real problem with. Monmouth, St. Mary's, Valparaiso - they really aren't tourney teams.

3. Kentucky and Texas A&M should be swapped on the bracket. UK should be the 3-seed and A&M should be the 4-seed.

4. The committee overseeded most of the PAC 12.... showing that the PAC 12's gaming of the RPI system worked.

5. Michigan State has a legitimate beef that they should be the #1 seed in the MW and Virginia the #2.... but that's splitting hairs.

Teams that are over-seeded:

- California - The Bears are good... but they're 6-seed good, not 4-seed good.
- Oregon State - The Beavers should be about a 9-seed, not a 7. But the committee must be reading my Bubble Viewing Guide, because the teams with the hottest cheerleaders - Oregon State and VCU - are matched up with each other!
- Notre Dame - The Irish played like crap down the stretch and are an 8-seed quality team.
- Iowa State - They're getting a bump from the conference, but they're a 6-seed-ish team.
- Syracuse - Should be in the play-in game - at best.

Teams that are under-seeded:

- UConn - Should be about a 7-seed.
- Indiana - Regular season B1G champ should be higher than a 5.
- Kentucky - Could make an argument for a 2-seed.

Round 1 Upset specials:

1. #10 Temple over #7 Iowa. Iowa has played like crap for a month.
2. #13 UNC-W over #4 Duke. Duke is a tired team with only one post player. UNC-W is a very good 13-seed.
3. #11 Michigan over #6 Notre Dame. Assuming Michigan beats Tulsa, of course.
4. #10 VCU over #7 Oregon State.
5. #11 N. Iowa over #6 Texas.
6. #13 Hawaii over #4 Cal. I really like Cal too. Very good young team. But Hawaii is the best team that none of us have seen play.
7. #11 Wichita State over #6 Arizona. Sean Miller's team is not as good as we think, and Marshall is a helluva coach who will find a way to win this game.

Oh yes, we have seen Hawaii play. They took us down last year and have many of the same players. They are very talented.

 

[UPitt '89]

Full disclosure:

My golfing buddy's nephew plays for Cal. Roughly 15-20 minutes for game. Sam Singer is his name.

So I watched a *LOT* of Cal games this year.

They have two freshmen forwards.. Ivan Robb and Jaylen Brown... that are EXCELLENT.

Cal might be a 4-seed this year, but they could be a Top 10 team next year.



But that's why I didn't like them being matched up with Hawaii. Hawaii is better than a 13-seed.

 

[BFo8]

Full disclosure:

My golfing buddy's nephew plays for Cal. Roughly 15-20 minutes for game. Sam Singer is his name.

So I watched a *LOT* of Cal games this year.

They have two freshmen forwards.. Ivan Robb and Jaylen Brown... that are EXCELLENT.

Cal might be a 4-seed this year, but they could be a Top 10 team next year.



But that's why I didn't like them being matched up with Hawaii. Hawaii is better than a 13-seed.

Rabb and Brown are NBA players, both big time recruits who lived up to their billing . Not denigrating Cuonzo Martin so much, but it drives me nuts when people say what a great job he did. With those two guys alone Lorenzo Romar or Mark Gottfried could've coached Cal into the tournament.

 

[whirlybird optio]

I believe the infractions had something to do with the recruitment of foreign players, which is literally their lifeblood. The Pepperdine losses were inexplicable, and I watched parts of both of them. Pepperdine was easily the #4 team in the WCC this year, but were way behind the big 3. I still believe this St Mary's team had the ability to make a sweet 16 run, but I can't argue that much about them being excluded.

Hawaii is an enigma to me. They have a few decent wins, and had Oklahoma beat, win that game and they maybe even get an at large.

However they also have the very odd home loss to UC Riverside this year, which was probably the most talked about game in the gambling community all season. Riverside pretty much sucks, yet they took heavy and consistent money leading up to the game, which lead to massive pointspread movements and even talk of taking the game off the board. I didn't hear anything definitive about tanking in this game, but given the rumors about a few Hawaii football games a couple years ago, the story did seem to carry a little weight.

We need you to post stuff like this, vegas insights, MUCH more often. I look forward to posts like this, and little nuggets like that Hawaii note, more than anything on here.

Good stuff

 

[NTOP]

Good stuff, I want to take UConn to go far, but man, what a brutal schedule.

What about Steve!!!!???? Will they beat the hoopies?

Stone Cold Steve Austin?? Too busy with his TV show. Hell, yeah!!

 

[NTOP]

Computers (Massey Composite) disagree with a few of your assessments--

1. Tulsa #53 about the same as St. Bonaventure #56--But, neither should have been in given the 18 auto bid teams ranked below #64 wiping out anyone worse than #50.

2. St. Mary's #32 (vs Pitt #36), Valpo #42 shouyld have been in. Monmouth you are correct about at #64 due to the auto-bid spoilers. St. Mary's was clearly the most screwed over based on their computer rating (equals last 8 seed).

Monmouth was just "hot" because of the frat boys on the bench. Should call themselves the Balling Blutarskis.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I think the commitee showed, once again, how important RPI was. P12 teams' RPIs were so much higher than you would normally think. I mean Pitt and Cal had very similar records but their RPI is 16 and ours was 51. And the committee seeded Cal to their RPI and gave them a 4. I had them as a 6, 10 losses is too many for a 4.

I did have Oregon State as a 7. They had 13 Top 100 wins, mostly because almost the entire P12 is in the Top 100.

I am glad there was only 1 mid-major bid, Wichita. Monmouth, SMC, SDSU, and Valpo resumes were nowhere close to even a team like Tulsa but I always say that mid majors get a different set of rules since they cant get home games. But if you go simply by resume and resume alone, Tulsa does deserve it over those teams. That said, I missed on Tulsa and Vandy. I had SMC and SBU. SMC for another token mid-major bid and SBU because their RPI was ridiculously good, 30 and they had some good wins. I think the committee was very nervous about giving the A10 4 bids and the SEC 2, can you imagine that?

 

[DT_PITT]

Oh yes, we have seen Hawaii play. They took us down last year and have many of the same players. They are very talented.

Yes, but how many Pitt fans actually SAW that game.

I think there were on or two on the Board that we actually there.

 

[KiwiJeff]

I think the commitee showed, once again, how important RPI was. P12 teams' RPIs were so much higher than you would normally think. I mean Pitt and Cal had very similar records but their RPI is 16 and ours was 51. And the committee seeded Cal to their RPI and gave them a 4. I had them as a 6, 10 losses is too many for a 4.

I did have Oregon State as a 7. They had 13 Top 100 wins, mostly because almost the entire P12 is in the Top 100.

I am glad there was only 1 mid-major bid, Wichita. Monmouth, SMC, SDSU, and Valpo resumes were nowhere close to even a team like Tulsa but I always say that mid majors get a different set of rules since they cant get home games. But if you go simply by resume and resume alone, Tulsa does deserve it over those teams. That said, I missed on Tulsa and Vandy. I had SMC and SBU. SMC for another token mid-major bid and SBU because their RPI was ridiculously good, 30 and they had some good wins. I think the committee was very nervous about giving the A10 4 bids and the SEC 2, can you imagine that?

And also, OOC didn't hurt us in any major way again. Call it gaming the system, call it whatever. But no matter how you get there, if there is a formula to get there, why not schedule to make sure you get there?

 

[whirlybird optio]

I think the commitee showed, once again, how important RPI was. P12 teams' RPIs were so much higher than you would normally think. I mean Pitt and Cal had very similar records but their RPI is 16 and ours was 51. And the committee seeded Cal to their RPI and gave them a 4. I had them as a 6, 10 losses is too many for a 4.

I did have Oregon State as a 7. They had 13 Top 100 wins, mostly because almost the entire P12 is in the Top 100.

I am glad there was only 1 mid-major bid, Wichita. Monmouth, SMC, SDSU, and Valpo resumes were nowhere close to even a team like Tulsa but I always say that mid majors get a different set of rules since they cant get home games. But if you go simply by resume and resume alone, Tulsa does deserve it over those teams. That said, I missed on Tulsa and Vandy. I had SMC and SBU. SMC for another token mid-major bid and SBU because their RPI was ridiculously good, 30 and they had some good wins. I think the committee was very nervous about giving the A10 4 bids and the SEC 2, can you imagine that?

With our insanely difficult schedule the next 2 years, you would think so long as we avoid bad losses in the OOC, our RPI should be very high, even with say a 9-9 record in the ACC.