Three Predictions for the Rest of the Season

[DC_Area_Panther]

Based on this morning's updated Sagarin ratings--Pitt's game by game score performance looks like the following:

vs Virginia the score made us look like being rated 59.45 -- Sagarin #103 ranked team
vs Ohio the score made us look like being rated 70.53 -- Sagarin #66 ranked team
vs Penn State the score made us look like being rated 87.88 -- Sagarin #11 ranked team
vs UCF the score made us look like being rated 80.19 -- Sagarin #26 ranked team
vs Delaware the score made us look like being rated 51.92 -- Sagarin #143 ranked team
vs Duke the score made us look like being rated 81.10 -- Sagarin #25 ranked team

Based on the entire body of work Sagarin has us rated 74.02 -- #52 ranked team.

Looking at underlying factors (not accounted for by Sagarin's entire body of work rating/ranking)--

That is, considering things like-->

(1) First game of season vs a team with more returning starters (Virginia)
(2) Adjusting to a new offensive coordinator (Virginia and Ohio)
(3) Sitting out many banged up front line players (Delaware)

It appears it might make sense to throw out the impact of the Virginia, Ohio and Delaware games in predicting what we might expect this team to do (assuming no more season ending injuries to front line players) during the second half of the season.

To that end; here are predicted results (using Sagarin ratings) for three scenarios with the Sagarin 2.60 home field advantage taken into account.

Scenario #1 = Using current whole body of work Sagarin rating (Pitt = 74.02)
Scenario #2 = Using average Pitt Sagarin performance vs PSU+ UCF+Duke only (Pitt = 83.05)
Scenario #3 = Using average Pitt Sagarin performance vs UCF+Duke only (Pitt = 80.65)

Scenario #1 is the least optimistic
Scenario #2 is the most optimistic
Scenario #3 is optimistic (but less so than Scenario #2)**

** IMHO, Scenario #2 may be a reasonable guess at where we are going into the second half season (assuming we remain reasonably healthy).

Opponent Scenario #1 Scenario #2 Scenario #3
Syracuse Cuse by 3 Pitt by 6 Pitt by 3.5
Miami Pitt by 3.5 Pitt by 12.5 Pitt by 10
@GA Tech Pitt by 11 Pitt by 20 Pitt by 17.5
UNC Pitt by 2 Pitt by 11 Pitt by 8.5
@VA Tech Pitt by 2.5 Pitt by 11.5 Pitt by 9
BC Pitt by 11 Pitt by 20 Pitt by 17

Scenario #1 predicts 5-1 but has 4 games were an upset would not be a surprise.

Both other scenarios predict 6-0 with the Syracuse game the highest risk on paper for a loss.

H2P

 

[CMUandPitt]

This is good stuff, although I've found the SP+ work that the Stats and Info team at ESPN does to be even better than Sagarin. (It's roughly based on Brian Burke's expected points model, which is the basis of Football Outsiders, TeamRankings and a few other places.) Sagarin is old school in the same way that companies like STATS and AccuScore are old school; the newer variations like SP+, numberFire's NEP, and a few others are useful forks of the same initial idea.

You're right that it's hard to get a good read on Pitt because they're clearly better than they showed against Delaware, but that's not going to get reflected in the ratings because it's not going to absorb the context of Pickett being out, the Davises being out, and so on. Anyway: SP+ has Pitt #57 and NEP has them #40, both of which generally form a floor and a ceiling for the team right now.

I'n not going to play it out week-by-week but based on some linear regression, 8-4 is the most likely outcome, purely for the reason that if you have five games in which you're 60-40 to win, expected outcome is 3-2 despite you being favored to win them all.

 

[HailToPitt725]

For once I’m excited for the Miami game. That’s a game we usually lose but I’ve seen two of their games now and both times their offensive line play has been atrocious. Third most sacks allowed in the entire country. Hopefully our defensive line can capitalize and have another big game.

Virginia Tech had ten sacks through four games and sacked The U seven times yesterday.

Gotta beat Syracuse first!

 

[RaleighPittFan]

For once I’m excited for the Miami game. That’s a game we usually lose but I’ve seen two of their games now and both times their offensive line play has been atrocious. Third most sacks allowed in the entire country. Hopefully our defensive line can capitalize and have another big game.

Virginia Tech had ten sacks through four games and sacked The U seven times yesterday.

Gotta beat Syracuse first!

The Miami game will depend on which QB is playing for them. I feel Pitt has a great shot against Williams. If they have switched to Perry, I think it will be a game.