Thursday Bubble Viewing Guide - March 10th

[UPitt '89]

Wednesday's Winners

Pitt

Meet Valerie Gatto - Miss Pennsylvania 2014 and 2012 Graduate of the University of Pittsburgh

The Panthers got a necessary win and saw their chances rise from 32.2% to 53.1%. I still think that percentage is too low, and the Panthers are in. But I've been using teamrankings.com's numbers all along, so I'll keep using them now.

Oregon State

The Beavers moved from near-lock to absolute lock with their win over ASU last night. From 87.3% to 97.0%.

USC

From 42.9% to 70.6%. That's what the win over cross-city rival UCLA did for the Trojans. Andy Enfield's team is looking pretty good now.

Wednesday's Loser

Syracuse

The Orange lost to Pitt for the third time this season, and saw their chances dwindle from 19.7% to 3.9%. Hard to see any scenario where they make it in, even if teamrankings.com's percentages are too pessimistic.

Thursday's Bubble Action

Pitt (RPI: 48 Chances: 53.1%)
vs UNC
Noon, ESPN
- The Panthers can remove all remaining doubt with an upset win. Go Panthers!

Northwestern
vs Michigan (RPI: 66 Chances: 21.6%)
Noon, BTN
- The Wolverines probably need at least two wins in the B1G Tourney to be in. Go Wildcats!

Eastern Michigan
vs Akron (RPI: 31 Chances: 63.1%)
Noon, ESPN3
- At this point, it is better for all bubble teams if Akron wins the MAC - since they are the only MAC team with even a shot at an at-large bid. So.... Go Zips!

Arkansas
vs Florida (RPI: 58 Chances: 19.5%)
1:00, SECN
- The Gators have a shot if they win a couple games in the SEC tourney. Go Razorbacks!

Butler (RPI: 46 Chances: 80.4%)
vs Providence (RPI: 44 Chances: 67.4%)
2:30, FS1
- Even though both teams have a decent resume, this feels like a play-in game. I think the loser sweats on Sunday. The winner is likely in.

Saint Louis
vs George Washington (RPI: 62 Chances: 15.3%)
2:30, NBCSN
- GW Needs a deep run in the A10 Tourney. Go Billikens!

Utah State
vs San Diego State (RPI: 42 Chances: 86.0%)
3:00, CBSSN
- The MWC is a one-bid league, as long as SDSU wins the tournament. A loss by the Aztecs makes them a bid-stealer. Go Aztecs!

Tennessee
vs Vanderbilt (RPI: 51 Chances: 69.0%)
3:00, SECN
- A win punches Vanderbilt's ticket. A loss keeps them behind Pitt and worried on Sunday. Go Vols!

Penn State
Ohio State (RPI: 76 Chances: 11.2%)
6:30, ESPN2
- The Buckeyes need at least two wins in the B1G tourney, maybe three. But I can't bring myself to root for Penn State.

USC (RPI: 41 Chances: 70.6%)
vs Utah
9:00, P12N
- The Trojans may already be in. But a win over Utah clinches the deal for sure. Go Utes!

 

[pittbb80]

Have to admit.............Enjoy perusing your bubble updates. Well done

 

[MartyInLawrenceville]

God, I hope Oregon State keeps winning...only to keep seeing this picture...
Great job on this!

 

[ClarkLotTgate]

It's ok to root for Penn State BBall, especially if it screws Ohio State (who isn't exactly our lovable friendly state school to the west) and benefits Pitt.

 

[Harve74]

It's ok to root for Penn State BBall, especially if it screws Ohio State (who isn't exactly our lovable friendly state school to the west) and benefits Pitt.

It's NEVER OK to root for PSUx.

Well, maybe if they're playing ISIS. Maybe.

 

[NCanton Panther]

Well done as usual, pics and all.

I guess it's stating the obvious but at this point, only thing knocking Pitt out of the dance would be teams winning their Conf tourney that wouldn't otherwise be getting a bid. Aside from that, are there any teams currently not considered 'in' that could steal a bid just by making an impressive run to their conference tourney championship game but not winning. Examples would be someone like a Michigan or OSU, maybe a few other borderline candidates like someone from the A10 or AAC. All in all though, I don't see it happening, i.e., someone not currently in stealing a spot just by making a deep conference tourney run but not winning the auto-bid.

 

[pittbb80]

It's NEVER OK to root for PSUx.

Well, maybe if they're playing ISIS. Maybe.

Sorry Id root for ISIS.............

 

[ClarkLotTgate]

I'd rather see PSU beat OSU and make sure we get in.
the "hate" towards psu bball makes no sense to me. WVU ball hatred at least is logical; as generally speaking- they are a rival. PSU bball just isn't.

 

[whirlybird optio]

I think people underestimate how many wins these off the bubble teams need in their conference tournaments. I think Florida and Michigan wouldn't necessarily be "safe" or even pass Pitt with wins over the 1 seeds tomorrow.

I think those Big East teams are safer than you think.

If there is a conference that might get squeezed on bids, I think it will be the A-10 or AAC, maybe a team like St. Joes gets surprisingly left out, and I think there is a real chance the AAC, who most have getting 4 bids, only gets 2.

Btw..if Pitt is in a fight for a bid, can't hurt to have the former committee chair as our AD, but I think Pitt is more likely to be a 7/8 seed than miss the field.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Let's get this back on track--

Pitt loss-bad
Michigan won--not good
Akron won--good
Florida won--not good.

 

[California Panther]

Let's get this back on track--

Pitt loss-bad
Michigan won--not good
Akron won--good
Florida won--not good.

yes but UM and Fla need more than one win to really make it not good

 

[Fk_Pitt]

yes but UM and Fla need more than one win to really make it not good

Yeah. I Just like updating this thread in real time.

 

[ClarkLotTgate]

A SLU comeback in the final 8 mins wouldnt hurt either...

 

[UPitt '89]

Butler loss - helps
Prov win - hurts

(But one was going to win no matter what)

 

[UPitt '89]

Tennessee up big over Vandy. That would definitely help if it holds up.

 

[imajericho]

Good god them girls are sexy but honestly those %s are ridiculous.

 

[Fredact]

Unintended consequence of a good thing about this site--when I clicked on this thread, as I saw there was some new posts, it took me right down to those new posts. So I had to manually scroll back up to get to meet Valarie again.

 

[UPitt '89]

Today's Bubble-related results so far:

Losers:
Pitt
Butler
Vanderbilt

Winners:
Michigan
Akron
Florida
Providence
George Washington
San Diego State


The SDSU and Akron wins are not bad for Pitt, we want those teams to win their conference tourneys. So four results that were good for Pitt, and five that were not.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

yes but UM and Fla need more than one win to really make it not good

Michigan has only 3 Top 100 wins. They are all inside the Top 25 though. Florida has 7 Top 100s and 2 inside Top 50 but St Joe's is at 49 and they can fall. Both are out with losses. We have 9 Top 100 wins and 2 Top 50. Mich and Florida probably need 2 more wins if there is any chance to pass us.

Nobody is talking about VT and GT. I'm telling you if GT wins tonight, they would be preetty close and if they win 2 more they are in. VT cant get in with a win tonight but if they make Saturday, I think they are in.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Today's Bubble-related results so far:

Losers:
Pitt
Butler
Vanderbilt

Winners:
Michigan
Akron
Florida
Providence
George Washington
San Diego State


The SDSU and Akron wins are not bad for Pitt, we want those teams to win their conference tourneys. So four results that were good for Pitt, and five that were not.

You people need to look at GT's resume. If they beat UVa tonight, they could jump us. We really need to be rooting against GT and VT. These teams remind me of NCSU a few years ago who came out of nowhere. I had them in but they werent on anyone else's radar.

 

[UPitt '89]

You people need to look at GT's resume. If they beat UVa tonight, they could jump us. We really need to be rooting against GT and VT. These teams remind me of NCSU a few years ago who came out of nowhere. I had them in but they werent on anyone else's radar.

GT needs at least 2 more wins. VT might need 3.

 

[whirlybird optio]

You people need to look at GT's resume. If they beat UVa tonight, they could jump us. We really need to be rooting against GT and VT. These teams remind me of NCSU a few years ago who came out of nowhere. I had them in but they werent on anyone else's radar.

Monmouth still a 100% lock?

As for GT, they were under .500 in league. They aren't even in the picture right now. I guarantee at this point in the TJ warren year, that team was at least showing up on bubble watches. I think GT would need to go to the finals, with wins over UVA and Miami to have a shot. VT needs the auto bid.

I really think Pitt is far enough above the cutline to not sweat this. Vanderbilt loss today huge, a team on par with Pitt that slips below us. The same will happen tomorrow after cincy/Uconn.

 

[whirlybird optio]

There is no conceivable way a team like Akron could pass Pitt, none. Their best win is Iona.

SDSU is closer, but would also be outside the field IMO. One good win OOC, a lot of losses, and dominating an awful win. Very similar profile to Wichita St.

I don't see it, I think they need the auto bid.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Monmouth still a 100% lock?

As for GT, they were under .500 in league. They aren't even in the picture right now. I guarantee at this point in the TJ warren year, that team was at least showing up on bubble watches. I think GT would need to go to the finals, with wins over UVA and Miami to have a shot. VT needs the auto bid.

I really think Pitt is far enough above the cutline to not sweat this. Vanderbilt loss today huge, a team on par with Pitt that slips below us. The same will happen tomorrow after cincy/Uconn.

Yes. Monmouth is a lock. They get the token "lesser standards" mid-major auto bid. Guaranteed. I think Monmouth, SMC, and Wichita are all in. Not because I think they deserve it but because they dont have to do as much and its a bad bubble year.

As for Pitt, everything has to go wrong for us to miss. I'd say its 90-95% right now.

GT enters conversations with a win tonight and that's the first step. 2 more and they are in.

VT may need the auto bid but I think they are in if they make Saturdaym

 

[cabe23]

Whirlybird and UPitt are the go to guys on this issue IMO. I know Whirlybird watches every bit of basketball he can, and what I can tell from UPitt '89 he does the same. I watch what I can but often get stuck watching dumb cartoons. I tend to agree with Whirlybird though, especially about Vandy.

 

[UPitt '89]

Yes. Monmouth is a lock. They get the token "lesser standards" mid-major auto bid. Guaranteed. I think Monmouth, SMC, and Wichita are all in. Not because I think they deserve it but because they dont have to do as much and its a bad bubble year.

As for Pitt, everything has to go wrong for us to miss. I'd say its 90-95% right now.

GT enters conversations with a win tonight and that's the first step. 2 more and they are in.

VT may need the auto bid but I think they are in if they make Saturdaym

Yes. Monmouth is a lock. They get the token "lesser standards" mid-major auto bid. Guaranteed. I think Monmouth, SMC, and Wichita are all in. Not because I think they deserve it but because they dont have to do as much and its a bad bubble year.

As for Pitt, everything has to go wrong for us to miss. I'd say its 90-95% right now.

GT enters conversations with a win tonight and that's the first step. 2 more and they are in.

VT may need the auto bid but I think they are in if they make Saturdaym

If I were you, I wouldn't put any money on Monmouth being in.

SMC yes. Wichita maybe. Monmouth no.

 

[whirlybird optio]

If I were you, I wouldn't put any money on Monmouth being in.

SMC yes. Wichita maybe. Monmouth no.

See, at least for me, I prefer Monmouth over st Mary's and Wichita. I actually like st Mary's least. SMC played a truly awful OOC for a mid major team, they didn't play road games, and they lost to the only good team they played. Our win over Davidson would be easily their best win. Monmouth has the worst losses, but I think they have the best wins, and ND's win probably helps them some.

Wichita has a win over Utah, SMC has two in league wins vs zaga. I think id rather be Wichita.

I think it's telling that jerry palm doesn't even have SMC in his first 4 out.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Whirlybird and UPitt are the go to guys on this issue IMO. I know Whirlybird watches every bit of basketball he can, and what I can tell from UPitt '89 he does the same. I watch what I can but often get stuck watching dumb cartoons. I tend to agree with Whirlybird though, especially about Vandy.

Mock bracket later tonight...

 

[33pitt99]

If I were you, I wouldn't put any money on Monmouth being in.

SMC yes. Wichita maybe. Monmouth no.

Just curious because I trust your opinion on this, what has SMC done to deserve a bid? Their conference was crappy this year and their OOC schedule was horrid. I thought mid-majors were supposed to challenge themselves in the OOC, but they only played one top 50 team, Cal, and they lost. I believe they never left the state of CA in the entire OOC.

I know their RPI is high, but if you really look at their schedule, they piled up wins against some really bad teams. Just not what I would expect to see from an at-large. Would love to hear what I'm missing on them. Thanks!

 

[imajericho]

Wichita and SMC are both in easily. Akron has no chance unless it wins its tourney. I am guessing ur %s in the initial post are adding in the possibility of winning the tourney?

 

[Protes]

Oregon State

The Beavers moved from near-lock to absolute lock with their win over ASU last night. From 87.3% to 97.0%.

Hey, nice Beavers!

 

[pitt-girl]

It's ok to root for Penn State BBall, especially if it screws Ohio State (who isn't exactly our lovable friendly state school to the west) and benefits Pitt.

No. No it isn't.